Affordable Housing Delivery:
Demographics and a
Rationale for Action
Presented to the Housing Advisory Committee,
City of San Juan Capistrano, California
July 7, 2004
Victoria Basolo, Ph.D., AICP
Associate Professor
Department of Planning, Policy, & Design
University of California, Irvine
POPULATION
Population by place,
Orange County, 2000
Low (lighter)
High (darker)
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000,
URL:http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en
Population, Percent Change 1990-2000
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Orange
Los
Riverside
San
San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Population Density, 1990 & 2000
4000
3600
3200
2800
2400
2000
1990
1600
2000
1200
Persons per
square mile
800
400
0
Orange
Los
Riverside
San
San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Population by Age Groups, 1990 & 2000
100%
90%
80%
70%
65 and over
60%
45-64
50%
25-44
40%
18-24
Under 18
30%
20%
10%
0%
Orange
Orange
1990
2000
Riverside
Riverside
1990
2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
San Diego
San Diego
1990
2000
Legal Immigration, 1986-2002
120,000
105,000
90,000
Orange
75,000
Los Angeles
60,000
Riverside
San Bernardino
45,000
San Diego
30,000
15,000
0
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
Source: U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Services and the California Department of Finance, 2003
Population Projections, 2000-2020
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
Orange
2500000
Riverside
2000000
San Diego
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2000
2005
Source: California Department of Finance, 2000
2010
2015
2020
Orange County Population Summary
• Orange County grew by 18.1% from 1990 to
2000, faster than the State as a whole
• Over the next 20 years, the County is
expected to grow by an additional 22.4%
• Much of the increase in population will be
from natural increase, existing residents
maturing through the life cycle
HOUSING
Housing Units by place,
Orange County, 2000
Low (lighter)
High (darker)
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000,
URL:http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en
Housing Units, Percent Change 1990-2000
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Orange
Los
Angeles
Riverside
San
San Diego
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Homeownership Rates, 1990 & 2000
70%
60%
50%
40%
1990
30%
2000
20%
10%
0%
Orange
Los Riverside San San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Percent Single-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
1990
30%
2000
20%
10%
0%
Orange
Los Riverside San San Diego CA
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Percent Multi-Unit Housing, 1990 & 2000*
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
1990
20%
2000
15%
10%
5%
0%
Orange
Los Riverside San San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
*Includes mobile homes
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
CA
Owner Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
1990
2000
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Orange
Los
Riverside
San San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Rental Vacancy Rates, 1990 & 2000
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
1990
2000
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Orange
Los Riverside San San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 1.
CA
Median Housing Value and Rent, 1990 & 2000
30%
25%
20%
Median Value
15%
Median Contract Rent
10%
5%
0%
Orange
Riverside
San Diego
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Housing Costs
1
MSA
Orange (County)
San Bernardino-Riverside
San Diego
2
3
3
Index Rank FMR FMR
FMR
4th qtr.
Rents Rents % Increase
2001
2001 2002 2001-2002
37
50.8
22.4
19
37
8
1046 1097
621 656
896 1012
1
Housing Opportunity Index (NAHB, 2002): Share of homes affordable to median income
2
Rank of MSA out of 181 regions across the nation (NAHB, 2002)
3
Fair Market Rent for a 2 bedroom unit (HUD, 2002)
4.9%
5.6%
12.9%
Overcrowding Rates, 1990 & 2000
25%
20%
15%
1990
10%
2000
5%
0%
Orange
Los
Riverside
San San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 1; Census 2000, SF 3.
CA
Units Authorized by Building Permits,
2000 & 2001
Single-Family
Orange County
Los Angeles-Long Beach
Riverside-San Bernardino
San Diego County
2000
6,857
8,381
18,998
9,296
2001
6,061
8,354
23,203
9,442
2000
5,671
8,523
2,416
6,305
2001
2,524
9,764
3,289
6,026
Percent Change
-11.6%
-0.3%
22.1%
1.6%
Multi-Family
Orange County
Los Angeles-Long Beach
Riverside-San Bernardino
San Diego County
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Percent Change
-55.5%
14.6%
36.1%
-4.4%
Orange County Housing Summary
• Orange County housing stock grew by 10.8% from
1990 to 2000, lagging behind demand, as are many
of CA housing markets
• The percentage of residential units authorized by
building permits declined from 2000 to 2001 with
multi-family showing a very large decrease
• In 2000, vacancy rates were very low at less than 1%
for owner housing and 3% for renter housing
• Median housing value increased by about 7% and
Median contract rent by just over 18% from 1990 to
2000
• Overcrowded units increased by 15.7% in the 1990s.
EMPLOYMENT
Service Employment by place,
Orange County, 2000
Low (lighter)
High (darker)
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000,
URL:http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en
Employment Change, 1990 to 2000
Orange County
Los Angeles
Riverside
San Bernardino
San Diego
California
1990
2000
% Change
1,292,472
4,203,792
488,257
591,371
1,145,266
13,996,309
1,338,838
3,953,415
602,856
661,272
1,241,258
14,718,928
3.59%
-5.96%
23.47%
11.82%
8.38%
5.16%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Unemployment Rates, 1990 & 2000
7%
6%
5%
4%
1990
3%
2000
2%
1%
0%
Orange
CA
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Orange County Residents,
Employment by Industry, 2000
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining
Arts, Entertainment, Recr., Accom. &
Food Serv.
Construction
Education, Health, & Social Services
3.6%
5.0%
5.0%
0.4%
8.3%
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
6.1%
Information
11.2%
16.1%
Manufacturing
2.9%
12.6%
17.0%
2.9%
8.8%
Professional, Scientific, Mngmnt., Admin.,
& Waste Mngmnt Serv.
Public Administration
Retail
Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census 2000, SF 3
Other Services
Percent Work and Live in Same County,
1990 & 2000
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
1990
2000
20%
10%
0%
Orange
Los
Riverside
San
San Diego
Angeles
Bernardino
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990 Census, STF 3 and 3; Census 2000, SF 3.
Workplace and Residence, 2000
Live & Work in Same City*
Top 5
Irvine
Newport Beach
San Clemente
Anaheim
Santa Ana
38.9%
31.5%
30.0%
29.4%
28.7%
Bottom 5
Cypress
Villa Park
Placentia
La Palma
Stanton
12.5%
12.0%
11.3%
9.3%
8.8%
Live in Specified City & Work in Orange County*
Top 5
Santa Ana
San Juan Capistrano
Lake Forest
Costa Mesa
Laguna Woods
93.2%
92.2%
91.5%
91.3%
90.8%
*Includes 33 cities (Aliso Viejo not included)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census 2000, SF 3
Bottom 5
La Habra
Cypress
Los Alamitos
Seal Beach
La Palma
58.8%
56.7%
54.3%
51.2%
45.7%
Orange County Employment Summary
• The number of Orange County resident
employees grew by 3.59% from 1990 to
2000, a much smaller increase than most of
the surrounding counties
• Unemployment increased slightly from 1990
to 2000
• Residents are employed in a variety of
industries suggesting an overall diversified
economy; however, the pattern of residents
by type of occupation is uneven.
Regional Outlook
Business in Orange County
Businesses needs workers
Workers need affordable housing
Traffic
Orange Crush
Concentrated Poverty
Percent in Poverty, 1999
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000,
URL:http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en
Concentrated Lower-Income Housing
Location of Section 8 Voucher Holders,
OC Housing Authority, 2003
Based on a sample of 1268 voucher holders under the administration of the
OCHA (Basolo, 2003).
In cooperation with the OCHA.
Growth Management Initiatives,
Orange County, 1986-2000*
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
*Special tabulations of growth management initiatives database,
Courtesy of Mai Nguyen, Solimar Research Group
19961997
19981999
2000
Planning and Developing Housing
Within the System of Relations
Economy
Traffic
Air Quality
Community
Quality of Life
Jobs
Housing
Strategic Action
Regional Housing
Needs Assessment
 SCAG determines existing and future
housing needs for communities in the
region*
 Communities must incorporate these
needs into the housing element of the
jurisdiction’s General Plan*
 Limited “transfer” of housing needs
between jurisdictions*
*See California Government Code §65584
Regional Approach
to Housing
 A regional agency with participation from all 34
cities and the County to ensure that housing is
produced, not simply estimated (RHNA) and
“planned”
 Uniform and mandatory regulations for inclusionary
affordable housing for both single-family and multifamily development
 Contributions to affordable housing development
through inclusionary units, redevelopment housing
set-asides, fees, etc.
Cooperative Responses
Local jurisdictions, employers, developers (for profit and not-for-profit), & individuals
Cooperative development of programs to
link housing and jobs
– Loans to employees who stay longer terms with
employers and live close to work (sliding scale
from full repayment to fully forgiven)
– Rental development agreements among
employers, developers, and cities/counties (lease
up at market and below market rents guaranteed
for period of years)
– Development incentives to developers building
mixed-income housing near job and
transportation centers (loans, increased density,
land at reduced cost)
Cooperative Responses
Local jurisdictions, employers, developers (for profit and not-for-profit), & individuals
Cooperative Housing Development Fund
– Regional fund receiving donations and stream of
revenue from employee tax and sales tax
– Land Trust (non profit) receiving donations and
purchasing properties for permanent affordability
Cooperative Responses
Local jurisdictions, employers, developers (for profit and not-for-profit), & individuals
Cooperative Effort for State Legislation
– State tax credits for businesses with employerassisted housing programs (certified by staff
overseeing regional housing fund)
– State tax credits for landowners (landlords and
owners) who demonstrate proximity of tenant to
place of work
– Legislation to formalize an Orange County regional
agency or compact