CIDA’s REVIEW of PROGRAMBASED APPROACHES Evaluation Directorate March 2010 OBJECTIVES 1. PRIMARY: Review PBAs, including budget support, to assess performance: TBS, March 2007 2. Analyze alternative delivery systems – situate PBAs within Country Programs (respond to FedAA req’ts) 3. Review international experience with PBAs Policy Context for CIDA • 2002: Strengthening Aid Effectiveness • 2007: Treasury Board Terms & Conditions – Review PBAs’ performance, report March 31/10 • 2008: Operational Guide to PBAs • 2009: Policy on PBAs • 2009: Aid Effectiveness Action Plan, 2009 – 2012 • 2009: Report of Auditor General – Implementing aid effectiveness agenda What are What arePBAs? PBAs? • As defined in the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness (March 2005), PBAs are: “a way of engaging in development cooperation, based on the principles of co-ordinated support for a locally owned programme of development— such as a national development strategy, a sector programme, a thematic programme or a programme of a specific organization.” Programme based approaches share the following features: • Leadership by the host country or organisation; • A single comprehensive programme and budget framework; • A formalised process for coordination and harmonisation of donor procedures for reporting, budgeting, financial management and procurement; and, • Efforts to increase the use of local systems for programme design and implementation, financial management, monitoring and evaluation. Four types Types of Four ofPBAs PBAs • Through budget support, a donor helps to finance the budget of a partner country by transferring funds to the national treasury. • General budget support (GBS) is a contribution to the recipient country’s overall budget. It includes policy dialogue between donors and the host government, focused on overall policy and budget priorities. • Sector budget support (SBS) is earmarked to a particular sector, with policy dialogue on sectoral issues. • Pooled Funds (PF) are negotiated between donors and the host government, often an account which is separate from a government’s budget process. A Pooled Fund includes some donor oversight, as reporting is expected to show how the funds were used. • Projects and technical assistance may be part of a PBA, marked by efforts to align donors’ assistance with recipient country priorities and systems. METHODOLOGY: 4 PHASES 1. Design methodology & review international experience (Sept – Dec 2008) 2. Five Country Program Evaluations (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Vietnam) Plus Ghana, but not Honduras. (Fall ‘08 – Fall ‘09) 3. OECD-DAC multi-donor Evaluation of Budget Support; Mali & Tanzania studies (2008 to late 2010) 4. Synthesis Report: policy; CPEs, international experience (March 2010) METHODOLOGY: Criteria & Ratings EIGHT CRITERIA: (DAC/CIDA) • Relevance • Effectiveness/results RATINGS: (WB/CIDA) Evaluators rated PBAs on each criterion, using 5-band scale: • Highly satisfactory (4.1- 5.0) • Satisfactory (3.1 to 4.0) • Sustainability • Coherence • Efficiency • Moderately satisfactory (2.1 to 3.0) • Management principles (Paris Decl) • Moderately unsatisfactory (1.1 to 2.0) • Cross—cutting issues • Highly unsatisfactory ( 0 to 1.0) • Performance management / Monitoring & evaluation METHODOLOGY: Limits & Compensation 1. Secondary data from implementing org’ns; common & accepted condition: i) interviews: elaborate, check probls ii) other reviews: triangulate 2. Comparability within & among CPEs: i) Tested methodology ii) Ratings: tendencies, not measures iii) Patterns & similarities: consistency 3. No country in crisis/fragile states; no country of modest presence. (Malawi status changed.) CIDA’s PBAs: Budgets & Annual Disbursement by Mode, 1999-2008 ($ mn) MODE Budgs 1999 – 2008 Budg as % of Total Disb 99 / 00 Disb 00 / 01 Disb 01 / 02 Disb 02 / 03 Disb 03 / 04 Disb 04 / 05 Disb 05 / 06 Disb 06 / 07 Disb 07 / 08 Disb 08 / 09 Disb TOT GBS 768 16% 1 1 21 48 40 62 57 102 64 74 469 SBS 1,584 32% 0 0 0 13 54 60 71 135 235 237 805 PF 1,461 30% 2 11 15 33 116 60 107 200 157 162 863 Other 1,118 23% 14 8 6 8 31 66 58 84 123 160 557 TOT 4,931 100% 16 19 43 101 242 248 293 521 578 633 2,694 CIDA’s PBAs: Budgets ($ mn) by Mode & Geographic Branch Africa Asia Americas Afghanistan/Paki stan, Iraq CIDA TOTALS GBS 439 39 23 268 768 SBS 996 356 54 499 1,584 PF 1,028 137 173 122 1,461 806 264 6 42 1,118 PBA TOTALS 3,268 477 256 931 4,931 Branch PBA Budget as % of CIDA PBAs 66.3% 9.7% 5.2% 18.9% 100% Total Branch Pgm Budget 4,082 2,215 1,906 1,298 9,950 PBAs as % of Branch Pgm Budget 80% 22% 13% 72% 50% MODE Other Donor Performance: Using PBAs to deliver aid Donor Budget Support (US$ mn) Other PBAs (US$ mn) Total PBAs (US$ mn) Total Aid Disbursed (US$ mn) PBAs as % of Aid Disb., 2007 Canada 265.6 244.3 509.9 914.1 56% Germany 109.2 214.6 323.9 940.4 34% Netherlands 437.5 253.1 690.6 969.3 71% Sweden 181.8 152.0 333.9 718.6 46% Utd Kingdom 775.6 373.2 1,148.8 1,598.6 72% United States 59.0 1,554.2 1,613.2 4,391.6 37% Totals, 23 donors 3,368 5,074 8,441 18,195 46% Multilaterals’ Performance: Using PBAs to deliver aid Multilateral Org’n. Budget Support (US$ mn) Other PBAs (US$ mn) Total PBAs (US$ mn) Total Aid Disbursed (US$ mn) PBAs as % of Aid Disb., 2007 Asian Dev. Bank 206.7 108.6 315.3 915.5 34% IDB 77.9 70.3 148.1 384.1 39% Afr. Dev. Bank 250.1 128.3 378.4 1182.7 32% Global Fund 0.0 486.5 486.5 643.5 76% United Nations 75.0 509.7 584.8 1,713.2 34% World Bank 2,199.9 1,089.3 3,289.2 5,887.0 56% Totals, 8 multilaterals 2,812 2 448 5,261 10,898 42% International Experience of PBAs: Reviews & Evaluations Category 1.0 Implementing PBAs: What happened? Responsible Institution & Nature of Review 1.1 OECD/DAC review of implementation of GBS and SWAps, & donors’ harmonization. (2002) 1.2 Evaluation of “Education for All” multi-country, multi-donor PBA Netherlands Min. of For. Affairs, 2003. 1.3 World Bank review of Poverty Reduction Support Credits, budget support for countries’ poverty reduction programs. (2006) 2.0 An Evaluation Framework for PBAs? 2.1 OECD/DAC: evaluation framework for country-level General Budget Support. (2004) 2.2 OECD/DAC evaluation of GBS in seven countries, 1994-2004. 19 donors (incl CIDA), 5 multilaterals, &7 country gvts. (2006) 2.3 EuropeAid & DAC Evaluation Network: a Comprehensive Eval’n Framework for GBS & SBS. 2008 to late 2010. 3.0 Evaluations of PBAs 3.1 Evaluations: Ghana multi-donor GBS, 2007; Tanzania, 1995-2005. 3.2 World Bank evaluation: assistance to Ethiopia, 1998-2006. 3.3 Tanzania Independent Monitoring Group: effective aid relationships, including PBAs. (2005) CIDA’s Country Program Evaluations: Samples by Delivery Mode Delivery Mode B1 Bilat Dir B2 Bilat Resp B3 GBS B4 SBS B5 PF P1 P/ship M1 M/lat Totals Country Program # # # # # # # # Bangladesh 6 16 3 13 1 1 40 Ethiopia 8 4 2 4 18 Malawi 4 1 Mozambique 3 6 2 5 1 2 Vietnam 13 6 2 3 1 6 Totals 34 29 4 11 21 11 2 7 3 22 31 8 118 PBAs by Performance Criteria 1. Relevance: Def’n: PBA objectives fit country priorities; CDPF strategy; CIDA policies on poverty & sustainability PBAs highly satisfactory – as are other delivery modes International experience: Relevance includes conditionality and ownership Political & administrative factors shape PBA choices Recommend: More analysis to set threshold for governance criteria (especially for countries in crisis). ED to pursue Review re: PBAs in fragile states, countries in crisis & countries of modest presence. PBAs by Performance Criteria 2. Effectiveness & results Def’n: achieve intended objectives; importance of results for poverty, sectoral objectives. PBAs’ average: satisfactory – varying, high to unsatisfactory PBAs similar to other modes Raises issues of intermediate outcomes & impact International: Effects of scale – institutional development. No strong poverty link. Recommend: Develop new methodologies and invest in national capacity to evaluate PBAs’ design & effectiveness (see Performance Management) PBAs by Performance Criteria 3. Sustainability Def’n: financial, technical, institutional capacity of host gov’t / organization to sustain PBA results Aid dependency—national & sectoral PBAs lower than on any other criterion —moderately satisfactory. Similar to other modes. International: potential longer-term institutional benefits. Tanzania: how to end aid dependency? Recommend: Analyze aid dependency & exit options; Invest in national financial-tech-inst’l capacity; Broaden “ownership” for political sustainability PBAs by Performance Criteria 4. Coherence Def’n: Consistency of CIDA support for PBAs; external—coordinate PBAs with other actors; internal—PBAs within country program. PBAs: high end of satisfactory—stronger than other modes. CIDA well regarded International: GBS very well co-ordinated with national priorities; components integrated. Internal coherence raises concerns: Bi/Multi/Partnership; Recommend: External: dialogue on division of labour Internal: plan country programs with all channels – Bilateral / Multilateral / CPB PBAs by Performance Criteria 5. Efficiency Def’n: Convert human & financial resources economically into results Demand and supply sides of transaction costs PBAs satisfactory – GBS & PF strongest Requires technical / sectoral expertise in field and decision-making authority (improve corporate services) Internat’l: mixed evidence on transaction costs Recommend: Analyze transaction costs, with counterparts Boost technical / sectoral expertise in field Pilot faster PBA approvals PBAs by Performance Criteria 6. Paris Decl’n Management Principles Def’n: PBAs show ownership, harmonization & alignment. PBAs satisfactory – similar to other modes: spread effects of AE agenda. CIDA & DAC define PBAs as approaches, not funding modalities (budget support): Contentious debate International: Both definitions used; Paris indicator (66%) controversial Recommend: Clarify ambiguities in CIDA’s PBA definition Clarify interpretation of PD indicator Simplify data categories; one overall dataset (14 categories) PBAs by Performance Criteria 7. Cross-cutting issues Def’n: PBAs address cross-cutting issues—gender equality & the environment PBAs moderate to satisfactory—similar to other modes International: Cross-cutting issues lost in policy dialogue—not a priority for GBS Recommend: Within PBAs, CIDA commit people & money to issues of priority, especially for early baseline data. PBAs by Performance Criteria 8. Performance Management / Monitoring & Evaluation Def’n: Quality of frameworks for performance management, monitoring & evaluation PBAs average: satisfactory, slightly better than other modes (major joint review processes). International: Evaluation of PD implementation shows least attention so far, together with mutual accountability Recommend: Invest in public capacity to monitor and evaluate PBAs, and aid in general. Provide new tools to CIDA staff. PBAs’ Performance: Summary Strengths & Weaknesses • Strongest on relevance to host country priorities—highly satisfactory (issue of appropriateness) . • Satisfactory: effectiveness and results; coherence; efficiency; fit with PD management principles; performance management, monitoring & evaluation • Weakest on sustainability—moderately satisfactory. Crosscutting issues: barely satisfactory • Pooled-Funding: strongest among PBA modalities—high end of satisfactory • No single delivery mode shows clear advantage across all criteria: Balance portfolio for context, maximize strengths & minimize weaknesses. PBAs’ Performance: Summary Scores by Delivery Mode & Criteria Dlvry Mode Count Relevance Effect/ Result Sustain’y Coherence Effic’y PD Mgt Crosscutt’g M&E Avg B1 34 4.3 3.3 2.7 3.3 2.8 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.3 B2 29 4.3 3.8 2.7 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 B3 4 4.5 3.3 3.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.8 3.8 B4 11 4.3 3.3 2.6 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.1 2.9 3.3 B5 21 4.5 3.5 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.3 3.8 3.7 M1 8 4.9 3.6 2.9 3.7 2.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.5 P1 11 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.2 3.5 Avg. 118 4.4 3.5 2.9 3.6 3.3 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.5 Key for Delivery Modes: B-1: Bilateral directive; B-2: Bilateral responsive; B-3: General Budget Support; B-4: Sector Budget Support; B-5: Pooled Funds; M-1: Multilateral responsive; P-1: Partnership responsive. Review of PBAs: Outstanding Issues 1. Mutual Accountability Mandatory Canadian requirements: TBS, FedAA, ODAAA with PD principles International commitments: Broad, complex, to be defined—ex: policy dialogue Recommend: Manual on M & E for mutual accountability; systematize & share knowledge 2. Civil Society: Accra: Recognized CSOs – broad coalition CIDA: Experience; leadership for Accra Recommend: Strengthen CSOs within PBAs – ref. AEAP Review of PBAs: Process • Management response • Evaluation Committee: Feb. 23 • Treasury Board Sec’t.: by March 31 Recommend: Organizational learning on PBAs: Internal Audit recommendation CIDA & counterparts – literature Continue DAC-Network