Thomas G. Barnes, Ph.D.
Extension Professor
Department of Forestry
University of Kentucky
www.tombarnes.org
Generalized Trends
 Forests – change in spp. Composition, geographic
range, health, productivity, fire regime
 Coastal areas – beach erosion, inundation of low
lying areas (wetland buffers), coral reef die off,
stress on fish & estuaries (nature’s nurseries)
 Mountains – diminish snow pack, hydrological
change
Generalized Trends
 Water – change in supply, quality, & hydrological
cycle impact forests, freshwater, arid lands lead to
increase flooding, droughts, storm damage
 Species & natural areas – loss of habitat lead to
extinctions, greater vulnerability to alien,
invasive species
Global Warming
 retreating glaciers, thinning arctic ice, rising sea
levels, lengthening of growing seasons for some,
and earlier arrival of migratory birds
 Polar ice decreasing by 8% a year
 Louisiana has already lost more than 350,000
acres to rising sea levels
 More than ¼ to 1/3 of all land animals will be
extinct as a result
 Coral reefs mostly gone by 2050
Arctic
 The Northern Bering Sea is starting to change from
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arctic to subarctic
Warmer air and water temperatures, less sea ice
The prey base of benthic (bottom) feeding walrus,
endangered sea ducks like spectacled eiders, and gray
whales is declining
Snow crab catches have declined 85% in six years along
with other crab decreases; and crab populations have
shifted northward.
Yellowfin sole and Greenland turbot catches have
been dropping, concurrently with declines in fur seals
and seabirds.
No reproduction in seals (dependent on sea ice) in
1967, 1981, 2000, 2001, 2002
Arctic
 White spruce declines due to warmer summer
temps that exceed tree thresholds
US Forest Service Models Northeastern
United States
 Retreat spruce-fir forest into Canada (more pine
and oak moving up from south)
 10 to 50% decline in balsam fir, red & black spruce,
black, sugar, red, & mountain maples, quacking &
bigtooth aspen, paper & yellow birch
US Forest Service Models Northeastern
United States
 More frequent extreme-heat days
 Longer growing season
 Earlier leaf and flowering times
 Shifts in frog mating season (earlier)
 Earlier migration Atlantic salmon
 Earlier ice break-up
 Less snow & more rain (not soft soaking type
but infrequent & heavy)
 Rising sea level & sea surface
 Reduced snow pack & snow density
 Tree line in Sierra Nevada has moved more than 100
feet upward in past 100 yrs (you can only move so far
up a mountain!)
Wildflowers
 In NY – found that 6 of 15 wildflowers bloom average
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20 days earlier in past 50 years
1 in 5 species will die out because of increased carbon
dioxide levels
8% decline overall in plant diversity
2006 study at Duke showed a 150% increase in poison
ivy, and more potent
USDA ARS – ragweed increased pollen production by
400%
Sonoran desert studies – 25% of species are adapting,
75% are disappearing
Fungi
 British study, 52,000 records of fruiting
 Found prior to 1950 – avg. fruiting 33 days
 This decade 75 days and longer
 Mirrors changes in British climate with warmer
and wetter autumns
Birds
 Migrating songbirds
 Dutch – pied flycatcher – winter in west Africa and
return to Netherlands to nest
 When hatchlings emerge adults feed them
caterpillars (3 week period when Dutch plants are
done flowering & caterpillars are abundant)
 Plants are flowering an average of 16 days earlier
 No food for babies
Birds
 Gray Jay (45+ year study)
 Algonquin National Park (Boreal – spruce/fir
forest)
 Warmer winter weather, food stashes rot, not
in good condition to breed
 Historically birds mate for life, now 50% remate) – means more first year birds mating –
inexperienced – nest failures
 So warmer weather, nest fails, re-nest, get with
another inexperienced mate – breeding is in
chaos
Birds
• Study 35 North American Warblers
• 20% have shifted ranges northward average of 65
miles in past 24 years
• Kentucky warbler may not be breeding resident in
future if trend continues
Birds
 Seabirds – kittiwake – populations declining
because timing of food supply (ocean fish)
disrupted because their food supplies (fish) have
shifted locations
 Red Breasted goose – disrupted nesting because of
rising sea levels
 Tree Swallows – laying eggs 5 to 9 days earlier
Bird Winners Vs Losers
 Penguins – Chinstrap increase while Adelie
decrease – chinstraps like open water (more of
because of ice melt) adelie like pack ice
Herpetofauna
 1/3 of all 5,743 species are in trouble – example –
harlequin frogs (110 species) Central & South
America – 2/3 are now extinct
 Western Toad – increase in UV B – egg mortality –
because of pond evaporation
Herpetofauna
 Golden Toad – Costa Rica – extinct in 1987–
increase droughts – more susceptible to disease &
infection
 Painted Turtles – sex determined by temp, warmer
temps more females and getting unbalanced sex
ratios
Mammals
 Pinon mouse – southwestern US species (just
one of multiple species that is moving higher
from 1,000 to 3,000 ft)
 Pikas – high elevation talus areas where food
is scarce – cut, sun dry and store hay –
localized extinction
Arctic Mammals
 Polar bears – arctic ice freezing later, thawing
earlier – less time accumulating fat and more time
using it – 10% loss of body weight yields 10% fewer
cubs
 Arctic fox/red fox – snow line recedes arctic fox
numbers decrease while red fox increase
Butterflies
 35 non migratory
European species –
shifted ranges 20 to
150 miles north
Coral Reefs
(The tropical rainforests of the ocean)
 – bleaching – caused by loss of dinoflagellate (symbiotic
relationship) leads to coral death – caused by warmer water
& higher irradiance
 20% increased in acidity
Fisheries
 Cold water fish, trout & salmon – intolerant of
warm water – stream temps increase – 4 to 20%
loss by 2030, 7 to 31% by 2060, and 14 – 36% by
2090 with significant losses in south,
southwest and northeast
 Because the Yukon River has warmed over
10°F, up to 45% of Yukon salmon are now
infected with the parasite Icthyophonus, never
found before 1985.