HSCB Modeling
CDR Dylan Schmorrow,
Animated
Butterfly MSC, USN
Program Director, OSD HSCB Modeling Program
Biosystems Assistant Director, Human Systems Staff Specialist
Office of the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (S&T)
dylan.schmorrow@osd.mil
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/dir/dylan/schmorrow
So…
Who are we?
What are we doing?
Why are we doing it?
Where are we going?
How will we get there?
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Why?
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A new Research and Development (R&D) program to develop a
science base and associated technologies for HSCB modeling.
Vertically integrated across three categories of RDT&E funding:
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Applied Research (PE0602670D8Z),
Advanced Technology Development (PE0603670D8Z), and
Advanced Component Development & Prototypes (PE0604670D8Z).
The military capability needs being addressed center on
enablement of modeling for Irregular Warfare (IW) and Security,
Stability, Transition, and Reconstruction Operations (SSTRO) and
on using computational models to support operations analysis,
intelligence analysis, training and joint experimentation.
The overarching goal is to provide DoD and the US Government
with the ability to understand and effectively operate in
human/social/culture terrains inherent to non-conventional
warfare missions.
Who?
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The HSCB Program has established several
DoD-wide coordination venues:
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Program Execution IPT (PE-IPT),
Senior Technical Experts Group (S-TEG)
Users Group (HSCB-UG),
In addition, elements of the HSCB Program
will be coordinated within federal interagency
forums established by the National Science
and Technology Council.
What?
The HSCB program will integrate and demonstrate a
validated, human terrain forecasting modeling
approach that enables the examination of second, third,
and higher order effects of kinetic and non-kinetic
actions within a theater in support of Effects Based
Operations; demonstrate the feasibility of integrating
HSCB process and software into strategic level conflict
resolution and regional stability planning tools; and
integrate and demonstrate training technologies to
deliver socio-cultural understanding and skills needed
for individuals and small units in current and future
military operations.
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Where in OSD?
How Organized?
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NDU Recommendations
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NDU sponsored workshop held 28-30 July 2008 with 120
participants
HSCB modeling needs were classified into twelve interrelated
categories
 Data Needs, Definition Needs, Measures of Merit Needs, Theory
Needs, Basic Research Needs, Tools Needs, Representation in
Tools Needs, Prediction Needs, Design of Experiment Needs,
VV&A Needs, Education/Training Needs, Outreach Needs
NDU-defined needs guided HSCB BAA development, IPT formation,
and project selection
HSCB Modeling Program implemented NDU recommendations as
part of awards, BAA development, systems engineering task, and/or
core IPT processes
ONR and CTTSO
ERDEC & CERDEC
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ERDEC-TEC – Will principally focus on socio-cultural data model
development; the hybrid modeling associated with socio-cultural
and geospatial data; transition to tactical users and SOF; and will
provide the government sponsored testbed for operational
feasibility demonstrations in support of BAA respondents and
HSCB-related technologies.
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CERDEC/I2WD – Will principally focus on the implementation of
the COMPOEX framework to support HSCB technology transition
to DCGS-A and select other Army systems; and will research and
develop an HSCB-PMESII Modeling Framework to ensure early
adaptation and transition of advanced HSCB-PMESII modeling
technologies to the DCGS-A Architecture and other Army
Intelligence Architectures.
ERDEC & CERDEC
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ERDEC-TEC – Will principally focus on socio-cultural data model
development; the hybrid modeling associated with socio-cultural
and geospatial data; transition to tactical users and SOF; and will
provide the government sponsored testbed for operational
feasibility demonstrations in support of BAA respondents and
HSCB-related technologies.
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CERDEC/I2WD – Will principally focus on the implementation of
the COMPOEX framework to support HSCB technology transition
to DCGS-A and select other Army systems; and will research and
develop an HSCB-PMESII Modeling Framework to ensure early
adaptation and transition of advanced HSCB-PMESII modeling
technologies to the DCGS-A Architecture and other Army
Intelligence Architectures.
MITRE
Directly assists in the development of technology investment plans,
selection of investment technologies and assist in the
assessment and transition of selected technologies.
MITRE will also:
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Develop and/or integrate, & implement a hybrid modeling framework (in
conjunction with government partners) and test protocol to support the
evaluation of BAA respondent technologies and conduct technology
integration experiments
Plan and conduct Technical Integration Experiments, Operational
Feasibility Experiments and Operational Feasibility Demonstrations.
Support transition HSCB technologies to programs of record.
Conduct social science analysis and outreach to leverage emerging
technologies and practices
Collect and maintain operational requirements.
Perform other systems engineering activities as directed.
HSCB Domain Challenge
 Other
organizations in DoD are implementing technologies in the
HSCB domain because of a critical need
 Who in the room knows what DoD is doing across the board in this
domain?
 Who knows some of what DoD is doing in this domain?
 Who knows what the following organizations or projects have done
or are doing? CENTCOM J9 Strategic Assessments, NIKE, JIEDDO,
SKOPE, JS J5, Mat-HT/HTS, OSD PA&E, EUCOM/PACOM
Strategic Communications, etc.
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Are they doing research or implementation in this field
How do we get ahead of this curve, do the research that needs to get
done, leverage what has already been done, and directly help these DoD
implementation leaders and other programs?
Answers
 There
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are no easy answers, however
While HSCB will pursue 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4 research, we need to
determine how constantly assess how the research will benefit
DoD and how some of it will transition
We will establish projects and facilities that:
Conduct technology integration experiments using your research
 Integrate promising research into meta-projects that examine research
in more operational ways/environments; determine what is ready
 Transition research and/or meta-projects
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What should you do?
Ensure that you participate in experiments
 Be prepared to answer how your research can interface with/pass
data across program.
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Transition Challenge
 If
transition is the key, how does your great research come
together to help the DoD and the warfighter?
 How does your research project transition?
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To who?
Why?
How?
 How
does your research project come together with others to
make and end to solution that is transitionable?
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What are your inputs?
What are your outputs?
What are your assumptions?
Where do you get your data?
Who do you assume the user to be (E4 or PhD?)
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Are you designing a system that a “real” user can use?
Transformation Challenges
 Transparency
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Ever-broader range of prospective users
Non-specialists need to understand what’s “under the hood”
Build confidence across user communities that models are valid,
appropriate, and relevant
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And that models/tools can add real value to operational programs
 Fundamental
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in HSCB models and tools
and essential multi-disciplinary collaboration
Relevant to theory, method, data, hermeneutics, and technology
 Generalizability
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Multiple domains, environments; Are current approaches adequate to
address the Strategic – Operational – Tactical spectrum?
 Meta
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and contextual issues, e.g.,
Education and training: for user communities; What about the research
community (e.g., to facilitate cross-disciplinary exploration)?
Other investments?
Way Ahead
 While
HSCB will pursue 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4 research, we need to
determine how constantly assess how the research will benefit DoD
and how some of it will transition
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We will establish projects and facilities that:
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Conduct technology integration experiments using your research and others
Integrate promising research into meta-projects that examine research in more
operational ways and environments and determine what is ready for transition
Transition research and/or meta-projects to programs of record, COCOMs, or
other DoD
What should you do?
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Ensure that you participate in experiments when asked
Understand the domain in which you propose to insert your technology
Be prepared to answer how your research can interface with, take data from, or
pass data to another project’s technology.
Show technical progress in assessable six month increments
Random Thoughts
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It’s BIG “R”; not little “r”
Big License Fees Bad.
Open Architectures Good.
Like “Survivor”
Play Well With Others
SBIRS/STTRS
Publish
Two Hats
Showcase “other” work
Most important  BE RELEVANT!!!