Version: 27 August 2012
National Security Seminar
Schedule of Events
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
• Introduction to
National
Security
• Introduction to
the decision
making process
• Finish decision
making process
• Assign groups
& people
assignments,
and a “crisis”
• In class: work
on decision
briefs for
“President” &
“VP”
• Groups must
ask five (5)
questions /
clarifications on
their crisis
• Group(s)
present In
Progress
Review update
to “President” &
“VP”
• More
guidance, detail,
& development
provided
• Groups present
FINAL decision
brief to
“President” &
“VP”
• Recreate 9/11
• After action
review (AAR) of
week
30%
70%
Grade: presentation and participation, substance /
detail in presentation
For the Week
“President”: Mr. Vavrin, “Vice President”: Mr. Johnson
Version: 27 August 2012
National Security Seminar
Alternate Schedule of Events
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
• Introduction to
National
Security
• Introduction to
the decision
making process
• Finish decision
making process
• Assign each
section a “crisis”
• Divide section
into 4 groups
and have them
work one of the
“DIME”
elements
• In class: work
on decision briefs
for “President” &
“VP”
• Groups must
ask five (5)
questions /
clarifications on
their crisis
• “Evolve” crisis
Grade: presentation and participation, substance /
detail in presentation
Thursday
Friday
• Group(s)
present to
“President” &
“VP”
• Recreate 9/11
• AAR
100%
For the Week
“President”: Mr. Vavrin, “Vice President”: Mr. Johnson
Version: 1 November 2012
National Security Seminar
Schedule of Events
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
• Introduction to
National
Security
• Introduction to
the decision
making process
• Finish decision
making process
• Assign groups
& people
assignments,
and a “crisis”
• In class: work
on decision
briefs for
“President” &
“VP”
• Groups must
ask five (5)
questions /
clarifications on
their crisis
• Continue Work
• One Group
presents FINAL
decision brief to
“President” &
“VP” (20 min)
Grade: presentation and participation, substance /
detail in presentation
100%
Friday
• One Group
presents FINAL
decision brief to
“President” &
“VP” (20 min)
• Recreate 9/11
• After action
review (AAR) of
week
100%
For the Week
“President”: Mr. Vavrin, “Vice President”: Mr. Johnson
National Security
(homework for weekend, prepare to discuss)
• What is National Security ?
• What authority (document(s)) gives national security powers and
responsibilities to senior government leaders
(i.e. President, Secretary of State, etc.) ?
• What are some limitations in using National Security ?
(Give three (3) examples)
• How does $ influence national security ?
• Where are we using those elements of power today?
Give four (4) examples and what “DIME” element(s) are used
References
Read: 2010 National Security Strategy (portions)
Investigate: Web sites of various federal agencies
Name & Describe Threats
to our National Security ?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Terrorism
Can you give
Cyber-warfare
specific instances
Nuclear Proliferation
when some of these
Economic Collapse
types of threats
Man-made disasters
occurred ?
Natural Disasters
Illegal drugs and its trafficking
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Border Protection
Loss of the national electrical grid
__________________
National Security
“Key Points”
POLICY
&
STRATEGY
Strategy
OPERATIONS
Democracy
“Putting words into action”
Instruments/Elements
of National Power
• Diplomatic/Political: The use of a country’s
international diplomatic skills and political position to
achieve national interests
• Informational: The use of a country’s information
systems to achieve national interests
• Military: The extent a country’s armed forces can be
used to achieve national interests.
• Economic: The application of a country’s material
resources to achieve national interests
Elements of National Power
“DIME”
• Diplomatic (Political)
– Leads
•
•
•
•
Secretary of State
Ambassador to UN
Country Ambassadors
Combatant Commanders
– Summits
– Conferences
– Treaties
Elements of National Power
“DIME”
• Informational
– Leads: All Departments (Public affairs offices,
news media, etc.)
•
•
•
•
•
•
“Cyber-warfare”
Internet
Radio
TV
Mail
Other
Elements of National Power
“DIME”
• Military
– Leads
•
•
•
•
Secretary of Defense
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Service Chiefs (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines)
Combatant Commanders
– Geographic
– Special Operations
• JSOC
– “National Military Strategy” document
Elements of National Power
“DIME”
• Economic
– Leads
• Secretary of the Treasury
• Secretary of Agriculture
– Natural Resources
• Coal
• Lumber
• Ag products: Corn, soy beans, cattle, pork
• Other __________________
– Manufactured Products: Airplanes, steel, IT systems
– USAID Funds/Projects
– Foreign aid through State Dept
– Food aid
An Overview...
Decision-Making Process
National Security
“Policy into Action”
1
Decision-Making Process
• A systematic approach to problem solving.
• A leader and staff checklist to ensure key elements of
planning are not missed.
• Established and proven analytical process.
• Tool that assists the leader and staff in developing a
plan.
• Helps the leader and staff examine a crisis situation
or complex issue and reach logical decisions.
• Applies thoroughness, clarity, sound judgment, logic,
and professional knowledge to reach a decision.
6
Steps
RECOGNIZE &
DEFINE PROBLEM
GATHER FACTS
MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
DEVELOP
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
ANALYZE
EACH SOLUTION
COMPARE
SOLUTIONS
SELECT
BEST SOLUTION
5
QUESTIONS?
Lets go through
an example
National Security Crisis
RECOGNIZE &
DEFINE PROBLEM
GATHER FACTS
MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
DEVELOP
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
ANALYZE
EACH SOLUTION
COMPARE
SOLUTIONS
SELECT
BEST SOLUTION
Event
A large (1/2 mile across) F5
tornado ripped through
Houston, TX severely
damaging numerous oil
refineries, crippling the U.S.
oil and gas supplies.
National Security Crisis
RECOGNIZE &
DEFINE PROBLEM
GATHER FACTS
MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
DEVELOP
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
ANALYZE
EACH SOLUTION
COMPARE
SOLUTIONS
SELECT
BEST SOLUTION
Problem(s):
1. Oil and natural gas production
has severely decreased
2. There is a terrible environmental
disaster in Houston with all the
crude oil and gas uncontained
and seeping into the ground.
3. There has been loss of life and
severe injury.
4. There has been a severe loss of
personal and company property.
5. _________________________
National Security Crisis
RECOGNIZE &
DEFINE PROBLEM
GATHER FACTS
MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
DEVELOP
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
ANALYZE
EACH SOLUTION
1.
COMPARE
SOLUTIONS
2.
3.
SELECT
BEST SOLUTION
4.
5.
Facts:
Estimated 1M gallons of oil and
gas soaked into ground
Oil and gas now contained
5 people dead
20 people injured
$100M in damage to facilities
Assumptions:
Price of gas will go up at least
$1.00 / gallon, ~ $5.00 / gal
Cleanup will cost $250M
Facilities inoperable for at least
30 days
OPEC will not ease oil supply
Inflation could increase by 5%
National Security Crisis
RECOGNIZE &
DEFINE PROBLEM
GATHER FACTS
MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
DEVELOP
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
ANALYZE
EACH SOLUTION
COMPARE
SOLUTIONS
SELECT
BEST SOLUTION
Solutions:
1. Do nothing
2. Open strategic oil reserves
3. Mobilize national guard for
cleanup
4. Talk to OPEC to increase
production
5. Activate FEMA to evaluate and
distribute goods
6. Ask Red Cross to stage resources
7. Other … ______________
National Security Crisis
RECOGNIZE &
DEFINE PROBLEM
GATHER FACTS
MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
DEVELOP
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
ANALYZE
EACH SOLUTION
COMPARE
SOLUTIONS
SELECT
BEST SOLUTION
Analyze each solution:
Advantages / Disadvantages
National Security Crisis
RECOGNIZE &
DEFINE PROBLEM
Compare each solution:
GATHER FACTS
MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
Decision Matrix
COA = Course of Action
DEVELOP
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
Rate 1 = Best
ANALYZE
EACH SOLUTION
COMPARE
SOLUTIONS
SELECT
BEST SOLUTION
COA1
COA2
Cost
1
2
Time to Finish (x2)
4
2
Loss of Life
2
1
External Support
1
2
Total
8
7
Low Score Best COA
National Security Crisis
RECOGNIZE &
DEFINE PROBLEM
GATHER FACTS
MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
DEVELOP
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
ANALYZE
EACH SOLUTION
COMPARE
SOLUTIONS
SELECT
BEST SOLUTION
Select best solution(s):
COA(s) “X”
National Security Crisis
RECOGNIZE &
DEFINE PROBLEM
GATHER FACTS
MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
DEVELOP
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
ANALYZE
EACH SOLUTION
COMPARE
SOLUTIONS
SELECT
BEST SOLUTION
Crises:
1. Military
2. Humanitarian
3. Economic
4. Humanitarian
5. Political
National Security Crisis
Assignment & Rules
1. Deliverables
a. Define the problem(s)
b. Gather all facts and assumptions
c. Develop “courses of action” using “DIME”
2. Rules
a. “Brain-storm” courses of action, but …
b. No assassinations
c. No nuclear weapons or Weapons of Mass Destruction
d. No mass devastation, i.e. flooding, etc.
3. Do not work in a “stovepipe” or vacuum, you need to
collaborate with other agencies
4. Crisis will evolve over time, expect more bad and/or good
news
National Security Crisis
Group ____________
RECOGNIZE & DEFINE PROBLEM
National Security Crisis
Group ____________
GATHER FACTS MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
National Security Crisis
Group ____________
DEVELOP POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS / COURSES OF ACTION “DIME”
Backup Slides
Decision-Making Process
INITIAL
GUIDANCE
Initiative made
STEP 1
or crisis occurs
Recognize &
Define Problem
or
Develop Initiative
could be more
than one problem
ASSESSMENT OF
AVAILABLE TIME
“Warning Order”
“Heads Up”
RECONNAISSANCE
Satellite, person, etc.
8
Military Decision-Making Process
MISSION ANALYSIS
BRIEF
REPORTS,
STATEMENTS &
SKETCHES
STEP 2
GATHER FACTS,
MAKE
ASSUMPTIONS
CDR’s INTENT & INITIAL
PLANNING GUIDANCE
10
Decision-Making Process
STATEMENTS
& SKETCHES
Restate
Problem
Advantages and
Disadvantages
Reconnaissance
Products
STEP 3
DEVELOP
POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS
SOLUTION
BRIEFS
(OPTIONAL)
PRODUCE ONLY
VIABLE SOLNs
14
Decision-Making Process
APPROVED
STATEMENTS &
SKETCHES
2nd and 3rd order
effects of each
option
STEP 4
ANALYZE
EACH SOLUTION
(WAR GAME)
REFINED COAs
15
Decision-Making Process
STEP 5
EVALUATION
CRITERIA
COMPARISON
POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS
DECISION MATRIX
DECISION BRIEFING
16
Decision-Making Process
LEADER APPROVES
STAFF RECOMMENDATION
STEP 6
DECISION
BRIEF
SELECT
BEST SOLUTION
ISSUE VERBAL ORDERS
17
Decision Making Process
Military
Operations
Order
Approved
Course(s) of
Action
STEP 7
Directives
PRODUCE
THE ORDERS
Press
Conference
18