Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles –
EPRI & Utility Perspective
PHEV Grid Impacts Technical Review
March 14th, 2007
Mark Duvall
Plug-In HEV Program
1. Plug-in HEV research, development, and demonstration
programs with auto industry partners
• PHEV Sprinter Van Program
• PHEV Ford F550 Trouble Truck Program
2. Charging Infrastructure
3. Economic/Value Proposition
4. Environmental Analysis
© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2
PHEV an Integral Part of Tomorrow's Intelligent
Power Delivery Infrastructure
Efficient
Building
Systems
Utility
Communications
Internet
Consumer Portal
& Building EMS
Distribution
Operations
Dynamic
Systems
Control
Advanced
Metering
Renewables
PV
Control
Interface
Plug-In Hybrids
Data
Management
Distributed
Generation
& Storage
Smart
End-Use
Devices
Enabling PHEV: Power Delivery Infrastructure of the Future
© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
3
EPRI Electricity Infrastructure Related RD&D
• Export Power
– On board stored energy providing power to support accessory tools,
emergency back up power, and utility customer needs
• Intelligent PHEV battery re-charge and communication
– PHEV recharging upon demand with appropriate communication protocol
and systems control both on and off the vehicle
• Vehicle to Grid (V2G) Interface
– Vehicle stored energy contribution to the grid system incorporating utility
interconnection and integration, communication architecture, metering,
power market
Each Platform requires - charging interface, inverter design, software
enhancement and more
Need Comprehensive RD&D Plan for Electric Utility Interface to Realize
the Full Potential of a Plug-in Hybrid as a Base Load and Peak Resource
© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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100
2.00
90
1.80
80
1.60
70
1.40
60
1.20
50
1.00
40
0.80
30
0.60
20
0.40
10
0.20
0
0.00
0
1
2
3
Charge power (kW)
State of charge (%)
Per Vehicle Charge Profile over Time
State of charge
Charge power
4
Time (s)
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
5
Charging Infrastructure
• Plug-in hybrids require relatively
low power charging
• Wide availability of infrastructure
– Initial focus on private chargers
• Array of options
– 120 VAC, 15 amp (~1.4 kW)
– 120 VAC, 20 amp (~2.0 kW)
– 208/240 VAC, 30 amp
(~6 kW)
• 120 VAC strongly
preferred due to cost,
availability
PHEV 20
Vehicle
Pack
Size
Charger
Circuit
Charging Time
20% SOC
Compact Sedan
5.1 kWh
120 VAC / 15 A
3.9 – 5.4 hrs
Mid-size Sedan
5.9 kWh
120 VAC / 15 A
4.4 – 5.9 hrs
Mid-size SUV
7.7 kWh
120 VAC / 15 A
5.4 – 7.1 hrs
Full-size SUV
9.3 kWh
120 VAC / 15 A
6.3 – 8.2 hrs
1.2 – 1.4 kW power, 1 or 2 hours conditioning
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Aggregated Charge Profile For Fleet Of
PHEVs
Charging energy fraction: Fraction of energy used to charge fleet of PHEVs per hour in one day
Source: Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2007. 1012468.
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Environmental Analysis of Plug-In Hybrids
EPRI – NRDC Joint Project
• CO2 Analysis
– Nationwide region-by-region
analysis
– Scenario-based
• EPRI base case includes CO2 policy
– Internal EPRI capacity and
production simulation
• Air Quality Analysis
– Phase 1 Modified AEO base case
• Nationwide 36 km grid
• CA, OH 12 km grid
• NEEM, CMAQ, Mobile6, EMFAC
– Phase 2
• Expand 12 km grid study areas
• Incorporate CO2 policy
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Number of Days Exceeding Proposed
8-hour Ozone NAAQS of 70 ppb in
Base Case Simulation
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Environmental and Electric Sector Study
• Complex problem
• Must consider simultaneous evolution/progression of both
transportation and electric sectors
– E.g., track PHEV market share with expected electric
sector evolution to 2030 (or beyond)
• Marginal analysis via production simulations
– Scenarios to track different electric sector constraints
• GHG costs/constraints, fuel prices, generating technologies
• Air quality modeling
– Temporal and geographic distribution of emissions
different from base case to PHEV case
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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PHEV Market Penetration
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2008 2009
2010 2011
2012 2013
2014 2015
2016 2017
2018 2019
2020 2021
2022 2023
2024 2025
2026 2027
2028 2029
2030
All-Electric VMT Fraction
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Fraction of Vehicles On Road
Fraction of New Vehicle Sales
10
Incremental Load Growth due to PHEV
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Impact of PHEV on Generation
500
Generation (Million MWh)
400
300
200
100
0
-100
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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EGU Emissions Remain Essentially
Constrained
In Magnitude and Location
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Definite Potential for Air Quality
Improvements
• Emissions reduced at ground level, thereby having a greater potential to improve
air quality
– Exposure efficiency
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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PHEVs Likely to Cause Decrease in
Net Criteria Emissions
• Powerplant emissions
essentially constrained
in magnitude, location
• Emissions reduced at
ground level, thereby
having a greater potential
to improve air quality
– Exposure efficiency
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
Electricity
(Upstream)
SOx
Electricity
(Vehicle)
Gas/Diesel
(Upstream)
NOx
Gas/Diesel
(Vehicle)
VOC
2030 High PHEV Penetration
• LDPVs through Class 5 vehicles
• ~ 20% electric VMT fraction
• 5.9% PHEV-caused load growth at utility
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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CO2 Impacts of Plug-In Hybrids
• Project vehicle fleet shares
– 16 of 31 vehicle types (92%)
– Share of new and on the road vehicles
• Analyze electric sector impacts
– Add incremental load
– Track emissions
• Project CO2 impacts
– Vehicles
– Electric sector
– “Upstream”
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
600
500
400
300
200
100
CO2 Intensity (g/kWh)
Annual CO2 Savings, Mtons
Greenhouse Gas Characteristics of PHEVs
0
50
20
46
20
42
20
38
20
34
20
30
20
26
20
22
20
18
20
14
20
10
20
06
20
CV
HEV
U.S. Marginal Electric CO2
Nominal Mix
U.S. Average Electric CO2
• In a carbon-constrained world, electricity CO2 intensity decreases
• New, cleaner baseload units available for off-peak charging
• Increased addition of renewable capacity
• Combined-cycle natural gas prominent on margin
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Issues and Concerns
Lots of different studies, lots of different results
• Scenarios with large
fleets projected on
a non-evolving grid
• Use of static databases
for large fleets or large
time-scale scenarios
• Failure to reconcile
results with commonly
accepted electric sector
principles
• Insufficient opportunity
Source: IPCC, 3 Assessment; Working Group 3, Chapter 8
for study input/peer
review/collaboration
rd
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Summary Thoughts
• Plug-in hybrids – now at the same stage as other historical alttransporation technologies that “almost made it”
• Public & political support is strong
• Industry and utility support growing
– This is going to be a very active field of work
Encourage technical community to work together in
areas of mutual benefit and to achieve consensus in
this area.
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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EPRI PHEV Technology Timeline
EPRI PHEV Sprinter
with DaimlerChrysler
EPRI/Utility PHEV
Fleet Demonstrations
EPRI PHEV Utility
Trouble Truck with
Eaton/Ford
Initial EPRI
PHEV Study
DOE Begins
PHEV Program
First PHEVs:
7 to 20-mile EV
Range Li Ion Battery
Costs Decrease,
Most OEMs Have
PHEV in Lineup
30-mile EV range
2000
2005
2010
2015
HEV Market
Introduction
HEV Sales
Accelerate
Initial PHEV
Market Intro
PHEV Sales
Accelerate
Li Ion Batteries
Enter HEV Market
Infrastructure
40-mile EV Range
2020
Widespread
PHEV Adoption
Customer Market Pull:
Increased EV Range
Greater EV Performance
Plug-in Night Time Charge
24 Hr. Grid Access
Auto-Docking
Time of Use Charge & Automatic Billing
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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