Volume

ACNielsen Data Basics

Beacon United

Agenda

• Retail Sales Basics

– Data Collection

– Understanding the Data

– Dimension Review

• Fact Review

– Volume Sales

– ACV

– Velocity

– Merchandising

– Pricing

2

Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Retail Sales Basics

ACNielsen Data Sources

Bob’s Grocery

Retail Sales Information:

• Retail sales environment

• What’s selling, how is it selling, etc

Consumer Information:

• Consumer behavior

• Who’s buying, how are

4 they buying, etc


ACNielsen Data Collection & Processing

Scanner Data

•

•

•

Items scanned at Checkout via UPC code

Price, Quantity, UPC and Item Description Recorded

Scanner Tape and Price Tape Sent to ACNielsen or Data Sent via

Modem

Causal Data

Displays - Collected by Store Auditors once a week

Features - Centrally Collected and Coded Daily

ACNielsen Data Processing

Census and Sample based data are integrated for respective markets

DATA DATA DATA DATA DATA

5


ACNielsen Data Collection & Processing

• Census Sample Integration (CSI) means enhanced consistency and accuracy

6


ACNielsen Service Offerings

ACNielsen collects data from the following channels:

 Grocery – Food $2MM+















Drug

Mass Merchandisers

Walmart

Warehouse Clubs including Sam’s Club

Dollar stores

Military outlets

Other Retail Measurement Services:

Convenience Stores

Liquor Stores

Ethnic Markets

7


Data Collection

Data Collection: Volume & Price

• Data is collected by UPC

• Units

• Price

• Characteristics allow UPC’s to be aggregated

• Categories

• Segments

• SKU’s

9


Four Data Dimensions

• Market

Where did the Purchases Occur?

• Product

What Level are You Interested In?

(Category, Segment, Manufacturer, Brand, UPC)

• Period

When did the Sales Take Place?

• Fact

How will You Measure Performance?

2004

11


Beacon United Databases

• PLN_Full_L2

– 47 Retailer Trading Areas with Remaining Markets

• Meijers_Cat0009

• Walgreen_Cat0006

• Target_Cat7

12


Retailer Markets

Market Dimension











Retailer Offerings: Trading Area

Retailer defined geography

Census Based

For example, Total Stop & Shop

If Trading Area’s are available it is the preferred view

Remaining Markets are all of an accounts competitors in a specified geography

14


Market Dimension

What’s the difference between a Market and a TA?

Stop & Shop

Trading Area

ACNielsen

Boston 2MM+

Food Market

15


Product Dimension

Product Dimension

Products are built from the lowest level possible - the individual UPC which serves as the primary building block for all other product levels

17


Period Dimension

Data Delivery: Periods

• PLN_Full_L2, Meijers_Cat0009, Walgreen_Cat0006,

Target_Cat7

– Weekly Data

– Updated Monthly

– 2 Years Weekly/Monthly History

– Approximately 2 Weeks Delivery from Close of Period

19


Fact Review



Actual Volume



Percent Change



Share



ACV



Velocity



Merchandising



Pricing

ACNielsen Collects Two Scanned Facts...

Units

SMITH’s

$1.99

$2.86

$.74

Price

21


Fact Dimension

• Units

–

Number of packages scanned for a product class or item during a specific time period projected to the respective universe

• Equivalent Units

–

–

Same as above with the exception that each scanned package is exploded by a conversion rate i.e. Pound Basis , Ounce Basis

• Dollars

–

The measurement of the dollars spent by the customer on items during a specific time period

–

Calculated not collected

Computation: Projected item sales X Item selling price in each store

22


Volume Share

•

•

• Share is a Calculation Based on Unit volume, Eq. Volume or Dollar

Volume.

Think of Share as a “Subset” of Volume.

Share Enables You to Answer the Question:

HOW IMPORTANT IS MY PRODUCT TO THE CATEGORY?

23


Fact Dimension

Percent Change vs. Point Change

Product A

Product B

Product C

$ Vol

10,656,589

7,689,708

2,927,322

$ Pct Chg vs YAG

11.3

13.3

7.3

$ Share

74.5

53.7

20.5

$ Shr Chg vs YAG

0.6

1.4

(0.6)

Product B’s Dollar Volume increased 13.3% over YAG.

Product B’s Dollar Share increased 1.4 points over YAG.

• Percent change is used when comparing VOLUME growth across periods/products/markets.

• Point change is used when comparing SHARE growth across periods/products/markets.

24


How Is

ACV

Measured?

25


Fact Dimension

All Commodity Volume

• A measure of the total DOLLAR volume of retail sales for a particular outlet or channel type.

• It includes all items that are sold in that store type

• %ACV serves as a good weighting factor when measuring distribution. It indicates how many consumers have the opportunity to purchase the product.

• Higher ACV stores serve more consumers

– All stores are NOT created equal.

26


Fact Dimension

All Commodity Volume $ (ACV) Example

The 7 Food Stores In This Market Sell $300,000 Per Week

SMITH’s Grocery Chain

* Has 3 stores in the market doing $132,000 per week for a total of 44% of the ACV

JONES’s Grocery Chain

* Has 4 stores in the market doing $168,000 per week for a total of 56% of the ACV

SMITH’s

JONES’s JONES’s

SMITH’s

A) $36,000 (12%)

SMITH’s

B) $48,000 (16%)

A) $60,000 (20%) B) $36,000 (12%)


C) $36,000 (12%)

C) $48,000 (16%)


Fact Dimension


If these 3 stores sold your product during the week, what percent of the total ACV sold your product?

SMITH’s

B) $48,000 (16%)


A) $60,000 (20%) B) $36,000 (12%)

28


Fact Dimension


If these 3 stores sold your product during the week, what percent of the total ACV sold your product?

And the answer is…

SMITH’s

$48,000 (16%) ACV +

B) $48,000 (16%)

JONES’s

$60,000 (20%) ACV +

A) $60,000 (20%)

JONES’s

$36,000 (12%) ACV =

B) $36,000 (12%)

$144,000 or 48% ACV

29


Fact Dimension

Example Of % ACV (3 Stores)

Item A Sales

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3

Store A (40% ACV) X

Store B (35% ACV) X X

Store C (25% ACV) X X

Week 4

X

4 Weeks

X

X

X

% ACV Selling 40% 60% 60% 35% 100%

ACV is non-additive (unless averaging) - 40% + 60% + 60% + 35% = 195%

Average ACV = 195/4 = 48.8%

30

ACV cannot be greater than 100%


A Review Of “% Of ACV Selling”

• The Percent of the ACV That Sold at Least One Unit of an

Item During a Weekly or

Monthly Time Period as Predefined on

Your Database.

• It Does Not Account for Items That Are Stocked in the Store

During the Period, But Did Not Scan (Sell) During The

Period.

31


How Do I Know Which %ACV Measure To Use?

When Concerned With . . .

Out of Stocks

Short-Term Events

What is Highest

During a Given Period

(New Items)

Tracking Long-Term

Distribution Trends

Use . . .

Average Weekly

%ACV

Max %ACV

Monthly %ACV

32


Velocity Facts

Another Way To Look At A Sales Rate Is

With Sales Per Million Dollars Of ACV

Definition:The Sales Of A Product For Every

$1,000,000 Of All Commodity Volume

To Which That Product Is Exposed

At Retail.

• Since “Sales Per Million” Is A Sales Rate Based

On Activity Only In Stores Handling, There Are

Several Useful Applications Of This ACNielsen

Measure.

34


Sales Per Million Dollars Of ACV

Brand Y Annual Sales: $ 5,834,936

Annual Market ACV : $3,240,000,000

To Compute Sales Per Million Dollars Of ACV...

$5,834,936

_________ = $1,801

$ 3,240

This Means That For Every $1,000,000 In Food Store Sales,

35

A Typical Store Sells $1,801 Of Brand Y.


Fact Dimension

Sales per MM $ ACV/SS Example

Volume

ACV

(MM$) Sales / $MM

My Brand 2000 5 400

Competitor A 3000 10 300

Competitor B 4000 20 200

A competitive item may have more sales overall, but this may be a function of its ACV Exposure...Your item may actually sell faster than the competition in a head-to-head comparison of the size of stores selling the products.

36


Sales Per Point of Distribution





 Allow for a fair comparison of the sales performance of products with different levels of distribution.

Eliminates distribution as a factor to equalize sales levels

Can not use to compare across markets

Sales

%ACV Selling

Sales per Point of Distribution

$ Sales per Point

Unit Sales per Point

Eq Sales per Point

37


Merchandising Facts

Breaking Down Promoted Volume By

Merchandising Condition Allows You To Explain

Sales Peaks

70%

No

Promo

Volume

30%

Promo

Volume

Feature Volume

Display Volume

Feature & Display

Volume

Temporary Price

Reduction

39


Feature Collection

•

•

Features are defined as retailer printed advertisements or other special printed promotions.

Sources Include:

 Newspapers

 Flyers

 In-store circulars

 Mailers

 Supplements

• Because FSIs are manufacturer features , they are not included in feature measures

40


Where does Display Information Come From?

• Each week the Field Auditors gather display information on:

–

Location

–

Selling Price

–

Merchandising Information

• ACNielsen Display Conditions:

–

Retailer must participate

–

It must be temporary

–

It must be situated in a secondary selling location

–

It must contain actual product available to consumers for self-service

41


Pricing

Some Facts on Pricing

• Retail price facts are gathered from:

– Retailer’s Price Files

– Retail Displays

– Feature Ads

• Price data is NOT collected on the same tape as store volumetric data.

43


Price Facts

Average Price

Weighted average price for all scanned sales of product

Non-Promoted Price

Estimated Product Price in the Absence of Promotion

Promoted Prices

Prices recorded by stores with:

Feature

Display

Feature & Display

Temporary Price Reduction.

44


NOW...

Let’s Discuss Some Other

Important Promotional Facts,

Events & Evaluations

45


Different Ways To Look At Volume

• Promoted vs. Non-Promoted

• Baseline vs. Incremental

46


Retail Sales Are Also Divided Into:

Baseline

Volume

TOTAL VOLUME

=

+

Incremental

Volume

47


Baseline Volume

• The Baseline Volume Is The Normal Expected Everyday Sales

In A Specific Store In The Absence Of Any Promotion.

• It Is Used As An Indicator Of The Fundamental Vitality Of A

Brand/Item.

• The Difference Between Actual Volume Versus

Baseline Volume Can Be Attributed To Promotional Activity.

48


We First Measure The Actual Volume

For A UPC In A Store Over Time

Week:

Feature

Display

TPR

8

6

4

2

0

Volume (000)

16

14

12

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

X

X X

X

X X X X

X X

49


The Creation Of A Baseline Allows Us To

Measure Incremental Volume

Baseline

Week:

Feature

8

6

4

2

0

16

Volume (000)

14

12

10

1 2

X

3

Display

TPR X

4 5 6

X

X

X

7

X

X

8 9 10 11 12

X

X

X

50


The Creation Of A Baseline Allows Us To

Measure Incremental Volume

Baseline

Week:

Feature

8

6

4

2

0

16

Volume (000)

14

12

10

1 2

X

3

Display

TPR X

4 5 6

X

X

X

7

X

X

8 9 10 11 12

X

X

X

51


Baseline Volume Includes Marketplace

Conditions That Affect Sales of a Product

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000

0

Baseline

Category

Trends

Long Term

Seasonality

Market Level

Effects

Brand

Trends 52


Incremental Volume

• “Incremental” Means Volume Sold Above And Beyond What

Normally Would Have Been Expected (Above Baseline).

• Generally, Incremental Volume Is Generated By Trade Support.

53


Retail Sales Are Divided Into Two Basic

Components:

Promoted

Volume

TOTAL VOLUME

=

+

Non Promoted

Volume

54


Promoted vs. Non Promoted Volume

•

•

Non Promoted

–

Volume in those stores/weeks where NO promotion

(feature, display, TPR) is present

Promoted

–

Volume in those stores/weeks where a promotion (feature, display, TPR) is present

These measures are projected from actual store data, unlike baseline volume, promoted/non promoted volume are not calculations

55


Keep in Mind...

Non-Promoted + Promoted = Total Volume

Baseline + Incremental = Total Volume

BUT

Promoted



Incremental

Non-Promoted



Baseline

Promoted and Non-Promoted Volume are actual, measured results

Baseline and Incremental Volume are expected, modeled results

56


Subsidized Volume

Total Brand A

San Francisco - 52 Week Period

4.2% Incremental

Promoted

Subsidy

Non-Promoted

Baseline

7.4% of the pound volume sold on promotion, but would have sold even without the promotion...

95.8%

11.7%

88.3%

Base vs Inc Promo vs Non

4.2%

7.4%

88.3%

Subsidy

57


Promotional Evaluation Measures

Promotion Effectiveness Index (PEI)

• PEI measures total volume relative to what would have normally been sold in the absence of any store level promotional activity (Baseline)

(Total Volume / Baseline Volume) x 100 = PEI

Examples:



A PEI of 100 means that Total Volume was equal to Baseline Volume



A PEI of 350 means that Total Volume was

3.5 times greater than Baseline Volume

59


Definition of Lift

• Lift is the interaction between Baseline and Incremental volume expressed as a percent.

• Calculation:

Percent Lift =

Incremental Volume

Baseline Volume

X 100

• Provides a relative gauge of promotion effectiveness when comparing events.

• Lift is a relative measure . You should always look at your actual volume and compare it against other Lifts for your brand or competitors brands where conditions are comparable.

60


61


Volume

ACNielsen Data Basics

Retail Sales Basics

Data Collection

Retailer Markets

Product Dimension

Period Dimension

Fact Review

Units

Price

How Is

Measured?

Velocity Facts

Merchandising Facts

Pricing

NOW...

Let’s Discuss Some Other

Important Promotional Facts,

Events & Evaluations

Promotional Evaluation Measures

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