Climate Futures for Tasmania
Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaptation Options
Tas Sustainable Yields – 24 July 08
Nathan Bindoff
Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
Our Starting Point
Climate change exists.
Greenhouse gas emissions a
key driver.
Changes will have impacts.
Impacts are felt locally.
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The Project
ACE CRC in consultation with others
Externally funded, consortium of funders
3-year project
Multiple climate projections to 2100,
multiple models, multiple runs
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
Arthur's Lake
Great Lake
Great Lake
Trevallyn
Trevallyn
Dam
Dam
Build on earlier work- Hydro Tasmania
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Use CCAM with improvements
40°S
10
8
6
41°S
Latitude
4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
2
42°S
0
-2
Dec
-4
43°S
-6
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44°S
144°E
3
145°E
146°E
147°E
Longitude
148°E
-8
149°E
-10
Special Elements
Highly collaborative project
Diverse focus – 4 areas of research
Strong communication and consultation
element
Focus on stakeholders and end users
needs
Modelling outputs freely available to
everybody
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Project Partners
Project Component
Research Providers & Liaison
Primary End Users Groups
Stakeholders
1. Fine-scale climate projections
ACE CRC, CSIRO, TPAC, BoM
Research Components 2-4
2. Water and Catchments
Hydro Tasmania, DPIW, ACE CRC
Hydro Tasmania, Hobart Water, Esk Water,
Cradle Coast Water, LGAT, Landscape Logic,
3. General Climate Impacts
TIAR, DPIW, CSIRO, BoM, GA, ACE CRC
TFGA, LGAT, Wine Industry Tasmania,
Fruitgrowers Tasmania, Aurora Energy,
Transend, Roaring 40s, SES, DPIW, DIER
4. Extreme Events
SES, ACE CRC, CSIRO, BoM, GA
SES, LGAT, Aurora Energy, Transend, Roaring
40s, DIER
Project Management
Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre
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Key Issues for End Users
Water policy and legislation
Water management and infrastructure
Power Generation (reservoirs, winds)
Power Distribution (heat waves)
Emergency planning (bushfires, floods)
Protection of high value assets (tourism)
Impacts on power and water dependent industry
Agriculture (crops, wine, other horticulture, disease)
Sea level surges (from wind changes)
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Research Components
Fine Scale
Climate
Projections
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Project Resources
$7.5 million over three years (cash + in-kind)
5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liaison officer &
project management team
Engagement of skills and expertise from the
consortia members, including Tasmanian State
Departments and business enterprises
Data Management (TPAC Digital Library)
Strong links with other projects
 CERF funded projects
 SEACI
 Tasmanian Sustainable Yields Project (TasSY)
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Project Outcomes
Information for adaptation.
All modelling data and materials made publicly
available.
Industries, government and community
informed on likely future climate.
Capacity to plan appropriate, targeted,
efficient adaptation strategies.
Understanding key risks and vulnerabilities.
Capacity to take maximum advantage of likely
changes in climate.
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Component Leaders
Modelling
Tony Hirst (CSIRO)
Nathan Bindoff (TPAC)
Water and Catchments
Bryce Graham (DPIW)
Fiona Ling (Hydro Tasmania)
General Climate Impacts
David McNeill & Stephen Wilson (TIAR)
Ian Barnes-Keoghan (BoM)
Extreme Events
Bob Cechet (GA)
Kathy McInnes (CSIRO)
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Funding Partners
Funding Partners
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Research Organisations
Research Organisations
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Putting it all together
Funders
(Funding Contracts)
CERF -Commonwealth
Environment Research
Facilities (DEWH&A)
ACE CRC Board
Dr Katherine Woodthorpe
(Chair)
Advisory Committee
DPIW – Michele Moseley
Dept Primary Industries and
Water
Fine Scale Climate
Projections
Chair: Bruce Mapstone
Bruce Mapstone
ACE CRC CEO
Hydro Tasmania– Andrew
Catchpole
SES – Chris Beattie
Other research
components
Hydro Tasmania
ACE CRC
Partners’ Committee
CLIMATE FUTURES
Project Leader: Prof Nathan Bindoff
Project Manager: Christie le Goy
Liaison & Extension: Suzie Gaynor
Chair: Nathan Bindoff
Research Organisations
Water and
Catchments
Hobart Water
Esk Water
(In-kind)
Cradle Coast Water
ACE CRC
Dr Kathy McInnes
CSIRO CMAR
Dr Tony Hirst
Utas TPAC – Prof Nathan
Bindoff
Utas TIAR
Dr Stephen Wilson
Prof David McNeil
Landscape Logic
LGAT
DPIW – Bryce Graham
Extreme Events
BoM– Ian Barnes- Keoghan
Hydro Tasmania– Kane
Thornton
Geoscience Australia
Dr Bob Cechet
SES
General Climate
Impacts
Tasmania Farmers &
Graziers Association
Aurora Energy
Wine Industry Tasmania
Transend
Fruit Growers Tasmania
Roaring 40s
Project Reference
Group
Dept Infrastructure,
Energy & Resources
(DIER)
Dept Primary Industries
& Water (DPIW)
End-User Representatives
“Virtual Network”
End User Stakeholder Groups/End User Focus Groups
Determining User Needs and Road Testing end user products
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Climate Futures for Tasmania
Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaptation Options
Thank you
Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
Full-time ACE CRC Staff
General Climate Impacts Analysts
Greg Holz (agriculture)
Michael Grose
Extreme Events Analyst
Chris White
Modelling Analyst
to be appointed
Water and Catchments Analyst
to be appointed
Extension and Liaison
Suzie Gaynor
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Project Management
Governance
ACE CRC CEO – Bruce Mapstone
ACE CRC Business Manager – Kate Maloney
Management
Project Leader - Professor Nathan Bindoff
Project Management - Christie le Goy
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Modelling Concepts
Global Climate Models - windows into
future(s)
GCMs are coarse scale
Community impacts often fine scale
CSIRO developed fine-scale method
This project provides fine scale
information for Tasmania.
40°S
10°S
1100
1000
15°S
900
41°S
800
20°S
700
Latitude
25°S
30°S
600
42°S
500
400
35°S
300
43°S
200
40°S
100
45°S
44°S
144°E
50°S
110°E
120°E
130°E
140°E
150°E
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145°E
146°E
147°E
Longitude
148°E
149°E
160°E
17
0
Fine Scale Climate Projections
What is downscaling?
CCAM – Cubic Conformal
Atmosphere Model
Validation phase
IPCC – models are used
Interpolation of pre-existing
IPCC scenarios
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Overlap with TasSY
• One scenario (of A2,A1B,B1), 6 models
(three in first year), to 1960 to 2100,
progressive to 2100. (Hydro project)
• Questions
–
–
–
–
–
Which scenario for TasSY (A2, A1B, B1)?
To 2030, or 2035?
Is 60km resolution sufficient for TasSY?
Time evolving?
How many models?
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Compute resources
• Required resources (45days*24 cpu per 15km
experiment, ~60 days*8cpu per 60km
experiment)
• TPAC provides 128 processors, Disk 40
Terrabytes, Tape Silo (100Terrabytes) capacity
~50%
• Quote
– 112 compute nodes, two tape drives, 100 Terrayte store,
$125k
– 112 compute nodes, two tape drives, $100k
– Three weeks for delivery after receipt of purchase order
• APAC, expansion will occur in November,
“couldn’t purchase hours at the moment even if
we could pay”
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How to get alignment
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