Main Issues for in International
Climate Negotiations
Gerald Lindo
Senior Technical Officer, Mitigation
Climate Change Division
Ministry of Water, Land Environment and Climate Change
THE BASICS
Climate Change is a Shift in Long-Term
Weather Patterns
• Weather is the day-to-day occurrence of
sunshine, rain, wind, etc.
• Climate is the long term pattern in weather that
is a feature of a defined geographic area
Changes in climate happen because of a
combination of natural effects and human effects
Climate Change
Is A Global Reality
The scientific consensus is that:
• worldwide climates are changing
• the observed effects are getting continually stronger
• human activity is driving climate change
– we have changed the natural balance of atmospheric gases (greenhouse gases
– GHGs), thus changing the way the atmosphere retains the sun’s heat.
To respond, humanity must mitigate its effect on atmospheric
GHGs and adapt to the changing climate.
Parameter
Major Changes Are Expected
Across Jamaica…
Predicted Change
Air and sea surface temperature
Rise of 1.4 to 3.2°C on average; seasonal variability
higher; more warm days and warm nights
Sea level rise
Rise of 0.28 to 0.98 m
Precipitation
Less summer precipitation (June, July, August)
Extreme weather events
Greater number of flood events, landslides, droughts
Tropical storms / hurricanes
Likely (>66% certainty) increase in hurricane intensity
Marine Ecosystems
More acidic / warmer seas; coral mortality
Source: IPCC (2007, 2013) ; CSGM
OUTLOOK FOR PARIS
Outlook
• At the Paris summit in December 2015, 196
countries will meet to sign a new climate
change agreement. But how likely is it that it
will be meaningful and make a difference to
climate action on the ground?
The link between development and climate
WHY IS CLIMATE CHANGE A
CONTROVERSIAL ISSUE?
What is…
Progress?
Development?
Economic Growth?
Nantions use land for
food and shelter.
Is there balance with
nature?
We use natural
products and
resources to make
our lives better.
Is it sustainable
Countries want to
exploit their natural
resources.
Is it fair and
necessary to stop
them?
How do meet the need for
industrial development and
jobs if emissions are
constrained?
Almost everything we make or do results in
emissions of gases that affect the climate.
Preventing emissions is a MAJOR task!
Outlook
• At the Paris summit in December 2015, 196
countries will meet to sign a new climate
change agreement. But how likely is it that it
will be meaningful and make a difference to
climate action on the ground?
Reducing the amount of harmful gases
HOW MUCH SHOULD WE REDUCE BY?
WHO WILL DO IT?
Reducing GHG Emissions
Issues: the world needs to cut emissions but…
• How much should countries cut back?
• How much will countries commit to?
• Who will cut back?
What should the global goal be?
• Our position:
– Warming should limited to 1.5°C
• Current goal: 2 °C
– When setting the goal, the world needs to include
regional information and highlight special
vulnerabilities
Who will commit, and how much?
• Our position
– A legally binding agreement
– Transparent
– Must adhere to science – quantifiable,
comparable
Who will commit, and how much?
• Our position
– Must ensure our livelihood – below 1.5°C
– Applicable to all, but recognising our differences
– Strong review systems, and NO BACKSLIDING
We need to change the way we live, work and build.
ADAPTATION
Annette Thompson changes crops
Farmers in rural St. Andrew begin terracing
Alternative Livelihoods for fisherfolk
Wigton Wind Farm – cheap energy with local and
international investment
Mangrove replanting and channel engineering in
Portland Bight
The Barbados Coastal Infrastructure Programme –
enabling climate-smart tourism
How can we adapt, and who will pay?
Issues: even with cuts, we’re going to have
problems. So…
• Who will pay the costs of changing our ways
to the new reality?
• Will someone help us with technology?
• How do we count the amount of assistance?
What happens if we can’t adapt?
LOSS AND DAMAGE
If we cannot adapt, what then?
• Our position
– Adaptation and loss and damage are two different
issues which must be treated separately
– Need to ensure that a means exists for the issues
to be aired out and addressed
• an international mechanism
It takes cash to care.
WHERE WILL THE MONEY COME
FROM?
Ensuring we have the means to cope
• Our position:
–Countries should meet their
commitments / promises
• $100bn per year by 2020… and we need
to see it!
Ensuring we have the means to cope
• Our position
– It doesn’t make sense to have money we
can’t access
• Balance between mitigation and adaptation
• Priority for countries with special vulnerability or
capacity issues
• Make it simple for countries to access
Ensuring we have the means to cope
• Our position
– Clarity and transparency of support, just as we
need transparency of action
What do you think? Tell Us!
Call:
633 7500
Email:
gerald.lindo@mwlecc.gov.jm
Twitter: @mwlecc
Facebook:
http://facebook.com/MinistryofWaterLandEnvir
onmentandClimateChange
THE END
SUPPLEMENTAL SLIDES
The Process, in Brief
• The United Nations Framework convention on
Climate Change is a treaty with the ultimate
goal of “stabiliz[ing] greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system”
The Process, in Brief
A number of negotiating bodies exist under the convention:
• The Conference of the Parties (COP): the decision making
body
• The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the
Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP): the decision making
body for the Kyoto Protocol.
• The CMP and COP are served by 2 subsidiary bodies:
– The Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice
(SBSTA)
– The Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI)
The Process, in Brief
In December 2011 (Decision 1/CP.17), the COP
established the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban
Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP)
• Mandate:
– WS1: develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an
agreed outcome with legal force under the convention
applicable to all parties.
– WS2:enhancing mitigation ambition to identify and explore
options for a range of actions that can close the pre 2020
ambition gap
The Process, In Brief
• UN regional bodies are groupings of countries
that provide officers for other bodies
– Africa
– Asia-Pacific
– Eastern Europe
– Latin America and the Caribbean
– Western Europe and Other
The Process, In Brief
• Many country groupings exist, reflecting regional alliances, similar
concerns, etc:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
G77 and China (developing countries)
Least Developed Countries Group
Alliance of Small Island States
EU
CARICOM
Umbrella group (includes Australia, Canada, US, Russia)
ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America – includes Cuba, Venezuela,
Bolivia)
– Arab League
– Environmental Integrity group
– Etc.
• Aim:
The 2013-2015 Review / The
Structured Expert Dialogue
– to contribute to the assessment of adequacy of the
long term global goal (2°C) and progress in achieving it
• Basis: AR5, other sources
• Our position:
– Warming should limited to 1.5°C
– Need to include regional information, highlight special
vulnerabilities
The 2013-2015 Review / The
Structured Expert Dialogue
• What’s happened?
– 4th session of the SED held in Lima (Dec 2014), with an
extension of the 4th part in Geneva (Feb 2015)
– Review covered IPCC AR5; the connection of the goal
with SD; ecosystems; food production; risk
management; development pathways; ethics; the
adaptation gap; carbon pricing ; health;
desertification; biodiversity
– Regional perspectives (Leonard Nurse for 5Cs)
The 2013-2015 Review / The
Structured Expert Dialogue
• What happened?
– 4th session of the SED held in Lima (Dec 2014), with an
extension of the 4th part in Geneva (Feb 2015)
– Review covered IPCC AR5; the connection of the goal with
SD; ecosystems; food production; risk management;
development pathways; ethics; the adaptation gap; carbon
pricing ; health; desertification; biodiversity
– Regional perspectives (Leonard Nurse for 5Cs)
The 2013-2015 Review / The
Structured Expert Dialogue
• What’s next?
– summary report on the 4th SED session by 20 March
2015
– a final compilation / technical of all SED sessions by 3
April 2015.
– Parties to submit any other information relevant to
the review and their views on the adequacy of the
long-term goal by 1 May 2015
Mitigation of GHGs
• Our position:
– 2015 agreement must have ambitious, binding,
quantifiable, comparable mitigation commitments
– Aggregate level of mitigation ambition should
ensure the livelihood of SIDS and should limit
temperature increases to below 1.5°C
Mitigation of GHGs
• Our position:
– Strong process for review of commitments
• 5 year commitment cycles
• No backsliding
– Strong compliance measures
– Mitigation focused INDCs
– WS2: “Renewable Energy in Small-scale and Isolated
Grids.”
Mitigation of GHGs
• What’s happened?
– Lima ADP decision produced weak
framework for Parties’ communication of
INDCs in 2015:
• little guidance on level of ambition required for INDCs
and weak reference to no backsliding
• vague guidance on scope of INDCs
• Challenges for comparability and aggregation
Mitigation of GHGs
• What’s happened?
– Lima ADP decision produced weak framework for
Parties’ communication of INDCs in 2015:
•
•
•
•
commitment cycles unresolved
no formal ex ante review or upward adjustment process
no explicit indication on MRV on commitments / implementation
legal status of INDCs as commitments under 2015 Agreement
remains unclear
Mitigation of GHGs
• What’s Next?
– Challenge: will be to strengthen mitigation commitment
architecture
– having legally binding outcome commitments rather than
simply having legally binding process commitments
– building clearer connections between long term global
goal, mitigation commitments and supporting architecture
(e.g. accounting and MRV)
– Jamaican INDC development underway
Legal and Structural Issues
• Our position
– Deal must be legally binding and consistent with
achieving the long term goal
• Shared with AILAC, LDCs, AOSIS, EU, EIG
– Revisit AOSIS protocol proposal from 2009?
Legal and Structural Issues
• What’s happened?
– Negotiating text (Feb 2015 ) reflects all
views/desired texts
– Streamlining will be necessary (eliminate
redundancies, resolve differences)
• Streamlining implies a structure/legal form!
Legal and Structural Issues
• What’s happened?
– Some parties (notably the Umbrella Group) are
suggesting a procedural agreement with legally
binding reporting obligations, but no binding
mitigation commitments
– the legal nature may encourage or discourage
participation
• Eg. US wants no legal obligations on emissions, finance; deal consistent with
existing US law/agreements
Legal and Structural Issues
• What’s next?
– Gather information on whether other developing
countries could accept an agreement where
developed countries do not take on legally binding
mitigation and financial commitments
– Consider options for a scenario where major parties
may sign but not ratify the agreement.
Legal and Structural Issues
• What’s next?
– Streamlining to commence in June ADP sessions
– Working locally and regionally to define a Jamaican /
CARICOM position
– Develop fall back positions on legal form to strengthen
MRV and compliance
Means of Implementation
• Our position
– Finance: $$$ that become available should be targeted and
accessible to the region
• Preserve support for readiness (GCF)
• Balanced allocation of funds between mitigation and adaptation
• Developed countries to stick to $100bn pledge as a floor for
finance.
• Clear prioritization of countries with special vulnerability or
capacity constraints
Means of Implementation
• Our position
– Technology: No need to create a new mechanism. Parties
to ensure current mechanism (CTCN) effective.
– Capacity: coordinated action to build capacity needed
• Expanding mandate of Consultative Group of Experts
• Develop work programme to determine countries capacity
requirements
• Promoting exchanges, fellowships, educational partnerships
Means of Implementation
• What’s happened?
– Finance after Lima:
• GCF achieved its initial capitalization of $10bn (about
half from the EU)
• Process on definitions and methodologies, progress
expected by Paris
• No clarity on scaling up to $100bn per annum by 2020
Means of Implementation
• What’s happened?
– Finance after Lima:
• Weak possibility of step change in finance discussion
– Without a clear pathway to $100bn
– With developed countries setting a red-line for no numerical
commitments on finance in a legally binding text.
– With the EU, the biggest donor to GCF, warning developing
countries to manage their “financial expectations”
» Potential deal-breaker?
Means of Implementation
• What’s next?
– To be resolved: who should contribute finance?
• Related: issue of differentiation.