ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
International Population Conference on
Migration, Urbanisation and Development
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
8 July 2013
Yap Mui Teng
Senior Research Fellow
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

• Immigration highly topical and highly controversial issue in recent years
• “Angst and anxieties”
• Immigration in GE2011
• The level of unhappiness expressed has been unprecedented – the trigger appears to be the influx of foreigners allowed into the country for employment and residence in the second half of the decade of the 2000s.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Sources:
Wong. W. K. 2010. Census of Population 2010. Advance Census Release. P. 3. Table 1. Population Size and
Growth. August 2010. Department of Statistics Singapore. 2010. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 29 March 2011.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Population by Residency Status
Singapore Citizens Singapore Permanent Residents Non-Residents
2,074.5
2,413.
3,047.1
4,027.9
5,076.7
3,230.7
2,985.9
2,623.7
2,194.3
1,874.8
1305,0
87,8
131,8
287,5
754,5
541,0
112,1
311,3
138,8
60,9
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Sources:
Arumainathan. P. 1973. Report on the census of Population 1970 Singapore. Volume 2. P. 3. Table 3. population by Age-Group and
Citizenship-Residentrial Status. Department of Statistics Singapore. October 1973.
Wong. W. K. 2010. Census of Population 2010. Advance Census Release. P. 3. Table 1. Population Size and Growth. August 2010.
Department of Statistics Singapore. 2010. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 29 March 2011.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

–
–
–
Wong. K. L. 2010. Census of Population 2010. Advance Census Release. P. 3. Table 1. Population Size and Growth. Department of
Statistics Singapore . August 2010. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 29 March 2011.
–
Sources:
Manpower research and Statistics Department. 2011. Report on Labour force in Singapore, 2010. Key Labour Indicators. P. xiii.
Ministry of Manpower. Accessed www.mom.gov.sg. 13 April 2011
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Employment Pass holders
S Pass holders
Work Permit holders (incl. FDWs)
Dependants of Singapore Citizens, Permanent
Residents and Work Pass Holders
Foreign Students
Total
Total number
Source: DPM Teo Chee Hean, Written Answer, 28 Feb 2012
12%
8%
60%
14%
6%
100%
1.39 million
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Source: Speech by Mr Wong Kan Seng, NPTD website
Wong. K. S. 2010. DPM’s Speech on Population at the Committee of Supply 2010. Chart 2. Immigration Trends, 2000-2009. 4 March 2010.
Accessed www.nptd.gov.sg. 29 March 2010.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

– Immigration (in-migration) played an important role in
Singapore’s population growth for much of its history
– In 1819, reportedly 150 fisherfolks on the island
– In 1824, population reached 10,683, “entirely as a result of migrational surplus” (Arumainathan, Census
1970 report)
– 1871 (first census), population was 97,111, “this significant increase was essentially due to the inflow of immigrants from China and India ….”
Sources:
Arumainathan. P. 1973. Report on the census of Population 1970 Singapore. Volume 1. Chapter 5. Demographic Trends and Change. P. 31..
Department of Statistics Singapore. October 1973.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Population Growth and Components, 1881-1970
Intercensal
Year
1881-1891
Population
Increase
43,857
Natural
Increase
-30,932
Net
Migrational
Surplus
74,789
Population
Growth
Rate (%)
2.8
Natural
Increase
(%)
-1.9
1891-1901
1901-1911
1911-1921
1921-1931
1931-1947
1947-1957
1957-1970
45,980
75,729
115,037
139,387
380,399
507,785
628,578
-42,542
-59,978
-35,594
-18,176
178,296
395,571
595,614
88,522
135,707
150,631
121,211
202,103
122,214
32,964
2.3
2.9
3.3
2.9
3.3
4.4
2.8
-2.1
-2.3
-1.0
0.4
1.5
3.3
2.6
Source:
Arumainathan. P. 1973. Report on the census of Population 1970 Singapore. Volume 1. Chapter 5. Demographic Trends and Change. P. 31. Table
5.2. Population Growth and Growth Components, 1881-1970. Department of Statistics Singapore. October 1973.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

6
4
12
10
8
2
0
Population Growth Rate and Rate of Natural Increase,
1931-2011
GR
GR(Res.)
RNI
RNI(Res.)
Source: Registry of Births and Deaths. Report on Registration of Births and Deaths. Immigration and Checkpoints Authority Singapore.
(Various years)
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Resident total fertility rate
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
1.20 (2011)
0,50
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Source: Population White Paper, p.9
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Total Fertility Rate
(births per woman)
Live Births
1970
3.07
45,934*
1980
1.82
40,100
1990
1.83
49,787
2000
1.6
44,765
2010
1.16
37,967
Life Expectancy (years)
At Birth
Male
Female
At Age 65
Male
Female
Deaths
Natural Increase
(Births-Deaths)
Source: Dept of Statistics
* All births
65.8
64.1
67.8
-
-
-
10,717
35,217
72.1
69.8
74.7
14.0
12.6
15.4
12,505
27,595
75.3
73.1
77.6
15.7
14.5
16.9
13,891
35,896
78.0
76.0
80.0
16.9
15.6
18.1
15,693
29,072
81.8
79.3
84.1
19.9
18.1
21.5
17,610
19,315
14
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

1970 1980
Total Dependency Ratio (per
100 persons aged 15-64)
73.9
Young Dependency Ratio
(per 100 persons aged 15-64)
68.1
Old Dependency Ratio (per
100 persons aged 15-64)
Old-Age Support Ratio (per elderly aged 65 and Over)
5.9
17.0
48.2
41.0
7.3
13.8
1990 2000 2005 2010
40.8
32.3
8.5
11.8
41.1
30.9
10.1
9.9
39.1
27.9
11.2
8.9
35.7
23.5
12.2
8.2
Source: Report on the State of the Elderly 2009 release 1, MCYS and Census of Population 2010
Advance Census Release, DOS.
15
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

60.0
40.0
10.0
1980 1990 2000 2005 2030*
15-64
65+
67.5
4.9
71.0
6.0
71.2
7.3
72
8.4
65.9
18.7
0-14
15-64
65+
16
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

• “… To do this, we need a critical mass of able and willing Singaporeans.
Able to adapt to and meet the changing needs of the global economy; and
Willing to do what is needed to ensure a better life for themselves, their children and fellow Singaporeans.
• “Singaporeans are indeed able and willing. But, there is just one problem – there aren’t enough of us and our population is fast ageing . We have not been replacing ourselves through local births since 1976 – 31 years ago.
Even assuming current immigration trends with an average of 8,000 new citizens a year between 2001 and 2005, the number of deaths each year could outstrip births as early as 2030. In fact, if we do not have an inflow of new immigrants, our population will start to decline even earlier, by 2020, like Japan’s in 2005. This is why we have decided that encouraging immigration has to be a key strategy in tackling our population challenge”.
Source: DPM Wong Kan Seng, COS speech, 2 March 2007
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

• “For society as a whole, a declining old-age support ratio would mean rising taxes and a heavier economic load on a smaller base of working-age Singaporeans. A shrinking and ageing population would also mean a smaller, less energetic workforce , and a less vibrant and innovative economy.
• “ Companies may not find enough workers . Business activity would slow , and job and employment opportunities would shrink. It would become more difficult to match the higher aspirations of a better educated and mobile population.
Young people would leave for more exciting and growing global cities. This would hollow out our population and workforce, and worsen our ratio of younger to older
Singaporeans ”
Population White Paper 2013
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Population Density by Census Year, 1901-2010
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
0
1901 1911 1921 1931 1947 1957 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Sources:
Department of Statistics Singapore. 2011. Population Trends 2011. Table 1.1 Singapore Population Size and Growth by
Residential Status. Table A1.5. Population, 1871-2010. P. 58. September 2011. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 5 March 2012.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Proportion Local Born
Year
1921
1931
1947
1957
1970
Population
(000s)
425.9
567.5
938.2
1,445.9
2,074.5
Local Born (%)*
29
37
56
64
74
1980
1990
2,413.9
3,047.1
78
76
2000 4,027.9
67
2010 5,076.7
57
Sources:
Arumainathan. P. 1973. Report on the census of Population 1970 Singapore. Volume 1. Chapter 8. Population by Country of Birth, 1947, 1957 and
1970. Table 8.4. Population by Birthplace, Census Years 1921-1970. P. 80. Department of Statistics Singapore. October 1973.
Khoo. C. K. 1980. Census of Population 1980 Singapore. Release No. 1. Table 8. population by Census Division, Residential Status and Sex. p. 48.
Department of Statistics Singapore. Singapore.
Lau. K. E. 1992. Singapore Census of Population 1990. Demographic Characteristics. Table 3. Local and Foreign-Born Resident Population, 1980 and
1990. P. 3. department of Statistics. Singapore National printers. Singapore.
Leow. B. G. 2001. Census of Population 2000. Demographic Characteristics. Table 1. Resident Population by Age Group, Ethnic Group, Sex and
Residential Status. P. 35. Table 8. Resident population by Age Group, Country of Birth and Sex. pp. 55-56.Department of Statistics Singapore.
Wong. W. K. 2010. Census of Population 2010. Advance Census Release. P. 3. Table 1. Population Size and Growth. August 2010. Department of
Statistics Singapore . Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg.
Wong. W. K. 2011. Census of Population 2010. Statistical Release 1. Demographic Characteristics, Education, Language and Religion. Table 9.
Resident population by Place of Birth, ethnic Group and Sex. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 29 March 2011.
* Computed from sources
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Magnitude of Foreign Population
Total Population
(000s) % Non-resident
1970
1980
1990
2000
2,074.5
2,413.9
3,047.1
4,027.9
2.9
5.5
10.2
18.7
Non-resident Growth
Rate (%)
8.0
9.0
9.3
2005
2006
2007
4,265.8
4,401.4
4,588.6
18.7
19.9
21.9
5.9
9.7
14.9
2008
2009
4,839.4
4,987.6
24.7
25.1
19.0
4.8
2010 5,076.7
25.7
4.1
2011 5,183.7
26.9
6.9
Sources:
Department of Statistics Singapore. 2011. Population Trends 2011. Table 1.1 Singapore Population Size and Growth by Residential
Status. Table A1.5. Population, 1871-2010. P. 58. September 2011. Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 5 March 2012.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Southeast Asian countries
Other Asian countries
Other countries
Total
46%
47%
7%
100%
Source: DPM Teo Chee Hean, Written Answer, 28 Feb 2012
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Country of Birth of Foreign Born Population
Others (incl not stated)
3%
India/Pak/SL
11%
Indonesia
7%
Malaysia
11%
1947
China/HK/Taiwa n
68%
India/Pak/SL
10%
Sources:
Arumainathan. P. 1973. Report on the census of Population 1970 Singapore. Volume 1.
Chapter 8. Population by Country of Birth,
1947, 1957 and 1970. Table 8.3. Population by
Country of Birth, 1947, 1957 and 1970. P. 80.
Department of Statistics Singapore. October
1973.
1970
China/HK/Taiw an
46%
Others (incl not stated)
4%
Malaysia
35%
Indonesia
5%
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Country of Birth of Foreign Born Resident Population 2010
Aus, NZ
1%
Others
1%
Europe
2%
Other Asia
10%
US, Canada
1%
India/Pak/SL
14%
Malaysia
45%
China/HK/Taiwan
20%
Indonesia
6%
Sources:
Wong. W. K. 2011. Census of Population 2010. Statistical Release 1. Demographic Characteristics,
Education, Language and Religion. Table 8. Resident population by Age Group, Place of Birth and Sex.
Accessed www.singstat.gov.sg. 29 March 2011.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

• WP holders are semi-skilled and lower-skilled foreign workers such as construction workers. The number of WP holders that a company can hire is subject to various access control mechanisms including source (nationality) restrictions and a Dependency Ratio Ceiling (DRC) that sets a cap on the number of foreign workers the company can employ . Employers have to pay monthly levies to hire WP holders.
• We have introduced significant measures to moderate the inflow of Work
Permit holders, including raising the foreign worker levy and tightening the levy tiers significantly, in phases, up to July 2013.
• From July 2012, the DRCs for Services (from 50% to 45%) and
Manufacturing (65% to 60%) Sectors will be reduced. The Construction sector, which employs more than one-third of all Work Permit holders
(WPHs), will also see further adjustments to moderate foreign manpower demand.
Source: http://population.sg/dev/resources/work-passframework/
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

• S-Pass holders are middle-level skilled manpower such as associate professionals and technicians. They must earn a fixed monthly salary of at least $2,000 and are assessed on a points system based on multiple criteria . The number of S Pass holders a company can employ is capped at a sub-quota, or DRCs of the company's total workforce .
Employers have to pay monthly levies to hire employees who hold an S
Pass.
• Significant measures to moderate the inflow of S Pass holders, including raising the levy and tightening the levy tiers, in phases, up to
July 2013 have also been introduced. The qualifying salaries for S Pass was raised in July 2011 to keep pace with rising salaries of the local workforce.
• The Sub-DRC for S Pass holders was also reduced from 25% to 20% in
July this year.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

• EP holders are higher-skilled foreign professionals, managers, executives and specialists (PMEs).
• EP holders must earn a fixed monthly salary of at least $3,000 and possess recognised qualifications . They are eligible to bring in their family members on either Dependent Pass (DP) or Long Term Visit
Pass (LTVP).
• The qualifying salaries EP was also raised in July 2011 to keep pace with rising salaries of the local workforce. We have tightened eligibility requirements for EP holders entering lower and mid-level professional, managerial and executive jobs since January 2012.
The more stringent requirements will include better educational qualifications and higher qualifying salaries .
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

ENGAGING MINDS, EXCHANGING IDEAS
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

• PRs are granted to working individuals, or their spouses and children.
From 2007 —2011, 48% of PRs were granted to working individuals, and the remaining were dependants
(spouses and children) of SCs and PRs. 63% of all PRs granted were under 30 years old and they help to mitigate our ageing population. Most new PRs also have good educational qualifications. Of those aged 20 and above, 74% had a diploma or higher qualification.
• PRs are subject to greater obligations than non-residents. For example, second generation male PRs are enlisted for
National Service. At the same time, while SCs receive more benefits than PRs, PRs also receive more benefits than nonresidents, such as subsidies at restructured hospitals.
Source: http://population.sg/resources/immigration-framework/
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

• Like PR applications, citizenship applications are subject to a holistic and thorough assessment process. PRs are granted citizenship only after they have completed the
Singapore Citizenship Journey and renounced their foreign citizenships.
• From 2007—2011, 38% of new SCs were granted to working individuals, while 62% were dependents. Like new PRs, new citizens are generally young and have good educational qualifications. 53% were under 30 years old, and of those over 20 years old, 61% had a diploma or higher qualification.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Population i. Encourage Marriage and Parenthood
–
To create a family-friendly environment supported by the Government’s
Marriage & Parenthood Package … ii. Remain Open to Immigration – To stop our citizen population from shrinking and sustain the citizen population with a stable age distribution, we will take in between 15,000 and 25,000 new citizens each year. The citizen population could be between 3.5 and 3.6 million in 2020, and between 3.6 and 3.8 million in 2030. We will grant about 30,000 PRs each year, in order to maintain the PR population at between 0.5 and 0.6 million for a stream of good quality candidates for citizenship; iii. Enhance Integration Efforts – To help new immigrants adapt to our local way of life and to reinforce our values and sense of belonging.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Economy i. Create Good Jobs for Singaporean Core in Workforce – To support a more qualified and skilled Singaporean workforce in a dynamic economy where two out of three Singaporeans are in
Professional, Managerial, Executive and Technical (PMET) jobs in 2030 compared to about one in two today; ii. Complement Singaporean Core with Foreign Workforce – To have an overall workforce structure that serves our economic, social and infrastructure needs; iii. Moderate Overall Workforce Growth Rates to 1% to 2% per year up to 2020, and about 1% per year up to 2030 – To drive the necessary restructuring and productivity improvements, and to ensure that growth is sustainable and does not outpace our infrastructure development.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Living Environment i. Plan and Invest in Infrastructure Ahead of Demand – To create high quality urban spaces and ensure that our infrastructure can support a range of population trajectories with a total population of about 5.8 to 6.0 million in 2020, and 6.5 to 6.9 million in 2030; ii. Implement Infrastructure Programmes – To expand our transport network, build more public housing, health and community facilities, and create new parks and interconnected green spaces all around
Singapore; iii. Explore New Technology and Innovative Solutions – To expand and optimise our land use, create new land capacity, and make use of space more efficiently and effectively to enhance liveability and support longer-term needs.
Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas

Engaging Minds, Exchanging Ideas