European Federation for Transport & Environment
Aviation and the environment:
status and technological prospects
Jos Dings
30 November 2004
About T&E
Members in:










Austria
Belgium
Czech &
Slovak Rep
Denmark
Estonia
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
www.t-e.nu










Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
Economic benefits of air transport into perspective




Contribution to EU economy (1998): approx.
1%
Contribution to EU employment (1998):
approx. 0.2%
Contribution to global warming (2000): ca
7% according to latest insights
Contribution to noise nuisance:
15-20% (Germany 2002)
www.t-e.nu
Global Warming due to aviation in 1992 (IPCC 1999)
Radiative forcing [mW/m2]
140
•49 mW/m2
120
100
(3.5% of total)
80
60
O3formation
contrails
40
Methane
reduction
20
0
-20
CO2
Cirrus
clouds
Total*
* Including other effects: water vapour directly, soot, sulfate
www.t-e.nu
Global Warming due to aviation in 2000 (AAC 2003)
Radiative forcing [mW/m2]
140
120
•116 mW/m2
100
(ca 7% of total)
80
O3formation
60
40
contrails
20
0
-20
CO2
Methane
reduction
Cirrus
clouds
Total*
* Including other effects: water vapour directly, soot, sulfate
www.t-e.nu
Climate change: baseline trends
Industry: 70% improvement has
been achieved per available seat
kilometre ….
 … yes, but compared with 1st
generation jets
 Meanwhile volume growth over 1000
%
 1994: B777 with GE90 engine
 Since then: no substantial further
improvements

www.t-e.nu
Overview fuel reduction technology
 Engine
‘bleed air’ elimination
 Pressure & bypass ratios
 High-speed propeller ?


Drag
Aircraft shape
 Wingspan and wingtips
 grooves, cleaning


Weight
Design
 Materials: composites e.g. GLARE

www.t-e.nu
New projects

2006: Airbus A380






Competes with Boeing 747-400
555 till even 800 seats
Approx. 10% more fuel efficient, half the noise ?
Wing span (80 x 80) and weight limit reductions
Boeing: 747A can compete (+3.5 m, +35 pax, 7E7
engine, decision 2005)
2008: Boeing 7E7; Airbus 350 ?





Compete with A330, B757/767
200-260 seats
Approx. 15% more fuel efficient ?
Airbus: A330 ‘light’ (+7E7 engines) can compete
Airbus A350 not yet official
www.t-e.nu
Boeing 7E7 ‘Dreamliner’: 15% better than competitors ?
www.t-e.nu
Airbus A380: 15% better than Boeing 747 ‘Jumbo Jet’ ?
www.t-e.nu
Reactions to CO2 + NOx charges in EU airspace



Total CO2 emissions some 115 Mtonnes
EUR 30/tonne CO2, EUR 3.6 per kg NOx ( =
approx. 12 ct/l)
Revenue raising:




Revenue neutral (feebate/rebate):




Reduces CO2 & NOx by approx. 9 & 10%
Demand and supply impacts equal
Revenues EUR 5 bln (35 EU budget)
Reduces CO2 & NOx by approx. 5 & 6%
Only supply-side effects
No revenues
Fleet renewal !!!!
www.t-e.nu
Two sources on supply-side (technology) responses
www.t-e.nu
Contrails and cirrus
Warm the earth probably more than
CO2
 Depend on ambient & exhaust gas
temperature & humidity
 New engines cause more !
 Solution: Air Traffic Management
(EUROCONTROL !)
 Military aircraft can avoid them for
visibility reasons)

www.t-e.nu
Alternative: hydrogen ?

Makes water and NOx emissions
probably worse

Much heavier aircraft, but lighter fuel

Hydrogen production ?

Many believe kerosene will be one of
last oil products
www.t-e.nu
Local air pollution

In particular: NOx and PM

Problem NOx : Modern engines: less
CO2, less PM, less HC, but more
NOx !

Problem PM: massive health issue
www.t-e.nu
NOx reduction potential

Main approach: improved
combustion chamber technology
Staged combustion
 Variable airflow inlets


More revolutionary & most
promising:
Lean premixed pre-vaporised LPP
 Rich burn Quick quench Lean burn (RQL)
 Reduction up to 90% claimed

www.t-e.nu
NOx emission factors vs ICAO standards

NOx emission factor is growing, despite
regulation
100
100
80
60
80
CAEP/ 2-standard
CAEP/ 4-standard
60
CAEP/ 6-standard
[%]
40
40
(NASA forecast
for 2015)
20
20
ICAO-standard
(rel.)
0
0
year
www.t-e.nu
[%]
Fleet average
EI NOx (rel.)
Noise: lost opportunities
‘Chapter 4’ in place in 2006
 Only 3 d(A) quieter than 1978
‘Chapter 3’ standards
 2001: > 95% already complied
 Best aircraft: six times quieter than
Ch.4


Airports now hold the key
www.t-e.nu
Aircraft can be much, much quieter !!!
www.t-e.nu
Trade-offs

Between CO2 and NOx :


Between CO2 and contrails/cirrus


Low temp. exhaust gas -> more contrails
Between CO2 and noise


High pressure ratio engines
Steep climb = more fuel
In policy discussions:
Favourite hobby of industry
 Less serious than often thought
 correct incentives ALL impacts needed

www.t-e.nu
The future perspective, climate

Growth stays at 4-5%/yr

Climate BaU
CO2: 1% p.a. improvement, 3-4% growth
 Contrails/cirrus: > 5% p.a. growth ?.


Climate technically feasible
CO2 improvement up to 2% p.a. ?
 Contrails/cirrus: avoidance largeley
feazible

www.t-e.nu
The future perspective, noise & NOx

NOx
BaU: no improvement, > 5% p.a. growth ?
 Incentives: large improvements possible


Noise:
BaU: improvement smaller than growth
 Incentives: improvement feasible !


Co-ordinated efforts by airports
(noise charges, noise ceilings)
www.t-e.nu
European Federation for Transport & Environment
www.t-e.nu
T&E is Europe’s primary NGO campaigning on a
Europe wide level for an environmentally
responsible approach to transport. info@t-e.nu
Rue de la Pépinière 1 | 1000 Brussels
Tel.: +32 2-502 99 09 | Fax: +32 2-502 99 08 | www.t-e.nu