What can we learn from MH17 Disaster?
What has changed since?
Joe Sultana
Director Network Manager
Email: joe.sultana@eurocontrol.int
12th November 2015
Contents
 The context before July 2014
 The immediate reaction after the shooting down
 The air traffic management consequences
 Have things changed, can it happen again?
2
The Network Manager - Connecting the Network to deliver
Improved Performance, even in abnormal circumstances
3
European Traffic - Jan 2014
4
European Aviation Crisis Coordination Cell
(EACCC)
Coordinate management of response to the
network crisis affecting aviation in Europe
EACCC
Activated when circumstances beyond
normal environment of ops are evident
Airlines
Members
…
Airports
ANSP
Military
State focal
points
5
Role of EACCC
Extreme
weather
Major
disruption
?
NM manages the disruption
Nuclear
Any other
disruption
Ash cloud
Crisis ?
Coordinating Europe’s response in times of
crises and disruption to air traffic management
EACCC activated
6
EACCC Regulatory Framework
NM IR
Requirement
EACCC
Coordinating
Supporting
Network
level
Recovery
Sustainability
Mitigation
Measures
Member
State
level
State focal
points
Contingency
Plans
7
Events in Ukraine Feb – Apr 2014

Feb 14 – indication that closure of Simferopol may be imminent

Mar 14
 10 - Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk ACCs assume control of Simferopol ACC
 28 - Russian Federation (RF) issues several NOTAMs changing location
indicators UKUR & announcing start of svc provision by RF as of 3 Apr
 29 - NM telecon with ICAO, AOs and ANSPs on latest events including how
to deal with NOTAMs issued by RF without jeopardising network safety

2 Apr 14
 ICAO issues a State letter drawing attention to possible safety risks in the
Simferopol FIR
 NM advice on Headline News to AOs to avoid the airspace and
circumnavigate Simferopol FIR due to safety concerns
 NM telecon with AOs and ANSPs on the situation
 Some AOs chose to route North of Black Sea, some route south avoiding
Ukraine

3 Apr 14 - EASA issue Safety Information Bulletin (SIB 2014-10)
8
Events in Ukraine Jun – Jul 2014
 Jun 14
 5 - Ukraine issue NOTAM closing some routes in Dnepropetrovsk
FIR from 06/06/2014 till 01/07/2014 between SFC - FL260
 29 – Ukraine issue NOTAM closing routes in Dnepropetrovsk FIR
from SFC-FL260 from 01/07/14 till 29/07/14
 Jul 14
 14 - Ukraine issue NOTAM closing routes in Dnepropetrovsk FIR
from FL260 – FL320 (resulting in closing ATS routes from SFC-
FL320)
 17 Jul – MH17
9
MH17 Crisis – Network Manager’s role
17 July (all times UTC)
 ~15.00 request for info on MH17 from KLM
 UkSATSE confirmation - flight plot disappeared from radar screens
 19.00 - EACCC telecon – dealing with crisis coordination response
and political aspects
 20.00 - NM Ops Centre (NMOC) telecon with ANSPs and AOs –
tackling ops aspects:
 Airspace closures
 Re-routings via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania in south / Poland in
north
10
Immediate Network Manager Actions in MH17
 Applied the national NOTAMS published by Ukraine
 Processed the MH17 flight plan against the valid airspace
organisation
 Responded to request from KLM on information about MH17
 Gathered info about what might have happened and made
assessment as to immediate risk
 As Chairman of the EACCC activated the Crisis cell
 Closed Ukrainian airspace as decided by Ukraine
 Managed the impact of the re-routing of flights with support of
Ukraine and neighbouring ANSPs
11
The aftermath
 Major traffic flow impacts, looking at solutions at network level
 Address questions from EU Parliament, media, whether Network
Manager could have done more beforehand
 Full participation in ICAO TF on Conflict zones
 Easy-to-access portlet on airspace closures and warning with H24
ops response service
 Support to safety case for partial re-opening of 4 routes over the
Black Sea
 Heightened crisis in Lebanon, Syria/Iraq and now Egyptian
airspaces
12
Complementing ICAO and European
activities on Aviation Risks due Conflict
Zones
Key areas
 ensuring sharing of relevant information
 assessment of risk locally and regionally
Network Manager
 Operational input on context
 Flight Plan processing
 Up-to-date situation picture with online Closure and Warnings Map
for Europe and beyond
 Providing AOs with an interpretation of complex network situation
 Monitoring of network operations
 Ability to react in real time
13
NM portal
protected area
List of published information
through NOTAM, EASA-SIB, ICAO
letters and national AIC/AIP….
….Illustrated on a map.
Geographical coverage is NM area +
adjacent Data are updated 24/7
Daily Flights in European NM Area
NE
Asia
140
1463




NM area internal traffic
26548
590
Russia
C Asia
1460
SE
Asia
415
923
Gulf
578
28 November 2013
Impact of crises in
2014 on traffic flows
27 November 2014
Current situation in the South-Eastern Europe
and the Middle East
FPL TRAFFIC
07 AUG 2015
18
ICAO Task Force on conflict zones
 NM member of Task Force on Risks to civil aviation arising from
Conflict Zones (TF RCZ) established by ICAO end Jul 2014
 safety and security aspects to civilian aircraft operating to, from
and over conflict zones
 how relevant info can be effectively collected & disseminated
 three meetings: two in Aug and one in Dec 2014
 conclusions to ICAO High Level Safety Conf (HLSC), Feb 15
 HLSC conclusion – establish a repository of risk assessment info
 Operational as of Apr 2015
 NM conflict zones portlet
19
Aviation risks
 Threat to airspace usability assessment – security, operational
expertise, political awareness
 Mitigation measures – adequate?
 Safety risk assessment methodology – still the basis
 Enough information/access to threat analysis for those who have
responsibility to make decision fly/no fly
 Manage the situation and the consequences in particular impact of
re-routings of major flows
20
Managing a « risk » airspace
 Risk factors monitored, risk mitigation plans updated
 Ability to react timely to changes at network level – impact beyond
region
 Coordination at right level between ops stakeholders
 Top-down decisions must be unambiguous
 Systems can be fooled by « creative » flight planning
 Support those who have to make judgement calls in a complex
environment
21
MH 17 Report of Dutch Safety Board
Main Air Traffic Management and Airspace conclusions:
 Flight routes – none of the parties involved adequately identified the
risks to civil aviation brought about by the armed conflict in the
eastern part of Ukraine
 Given the risk, the airspace should have been closed
 Malaysian Airlines (and others) should not have selected this
particular route
22
Dutch Safety Board Recommendations
Improvements at 3 Levels:
 Management of airspace in states dealing with armed conflict in their
territory – safety improvement
 How states and operators assess risks of flying over conflict zones –
safety improvement
 Accountability of operators regarding their choice of whether or not
to fly over conflict zones – better risk assessment
23
Obligation of the State
 States must ensure that the airspace used by flights is safe
 Any information about risks and threats should result in advice or
warnings
 Recommendation
 Be prepared to close airspace,
 coordinate with ANSP,
 info 3rd parties
 What if
 there is no functioning,
 no ability to make risk/threat assessment,
 politics get in the way
24
Obligation of the airline
 Operators have to do all that is possible to operate the flight safely
 Airlines rely on states to provide them information about risks and
threats to flying
 Recommendation
 Operators need to make risk assessment for whole route,
 gather and share info,
 timely and structured process in place for info from state,
 unpredictability of armed conflict is increased risk
25
Recent experiences
 Missiles from Caspian Sea to Syria
 Loss of Russian MetroJet over Sinai
 Potential closure of Afgan airspace
Network Manager preparation:
 Sharing of available info
 Scenarios prepared with ANSPs in region and others affected
 Extensive briefings\teleconf with airspace users
 Await decisions of states/safety risk assessments of airlines
26
Thank you for your attention
Happy to take questions
Joe Sultana
Director Network Manager
Email: joe.sultana@eurocontrol.int
12th November 2015