Air pollution and climate change
Short lived climate forcers
Øystein Hov
Is it useful to control short-lived
climate forcers?
Temperature evolution for the scenarios
UNEP and WMO 2011 – Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon
and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers.
Methane measures
suggested to be effective
Black Carbon Measures
suggested to be effective
Global benefits from full implementation of identified measures
in 2050/2030 compared to reference scenario
UNEP and WMO 2011 – Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon
and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers.
Can we trust in these results?
• Emission scenario uncertainty?
• Impact calculation uncertainty
• Black Carbon forcing range assumed 0.3-0.6 Wm-2
(being on the high side of model results)
• Estimated RF effect of the CH4 & BC measures
O3 0.18 / CH4 0.21 / BC 0.14 Wm-2
• Only two models used (GISS, ECHAM)
and simplified temperature response function
Contributions from European
countries to Arctic pollution (2006)
31%
12%
Primary
PM25
18%
9%
2%
RU
NO
2% 3%
FI
ATL
4%
SE
4%
GB
9%
6%
PL
FR
NOS
DE
Rest
19%
38%
Secondary
inorganic
aerosols:
4%
SO4, NO3, NH4
5%
4%
4%
2%
8%
5%
9%
2%
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
BC north
of the
Polar
Circle
1991-2001
average
AMAP Assessment 2006: Acidifying pollutants, Arctic haze, and acidification in the Arctic www.amap.no
Impact on instantaneous forcing of 1 kt BC
Source: EMEP/MSC-W, UniOslo, IIASA
Instantaneous forcing over
Northern Hemisphere
EMEP domain
mW m2/kt BC
0.00
AL
AT
BAS
BY
BE
BLS
BA
BG
HR
CY
CZ
DK
EE
FI
FR
MK
DE
GR
HU
IS
IE
IT
KZ
LV
LT
LU
MT
ME
ME
NL
NOS
NO
PL
PT
MD
RO
RU
RS
SK
SI
ES
SE
CH
TR
UA
UK
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.00
AL
AT
BAS
BY
BE
BLS
BA
BG
HR
CY
CZ
DK
EE
FI
FR
MK
DE
GR
HU
IS
IE
IT
KZ
LV
LT
LU
MT
ME
ME
NL
NOS
NO
PL
PT
MD
RO
RU
RS
SK
SI
ES
SE
CH
TR
UA
UK
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
mWm2/kt BC
0.30
0.35
Arctic
0.00
AL
AT
BAS
BY
BE
BLS
BA
BG
HR
CY
CZ
DK
EE
FI
FR
MK
DE
GR
HU
IS
IE
IT
KZ
LV
LT
LU
MT
ME
ME
NL
NOS
NO
PL
PT
MD
RO
RU
RS
SK
SI
ES
SE
CH
TR
UA
UK
0.05
0.10
mW m2/kt BC
0.15
Surface temperature response to forcings by natural
factors, anthropogenic GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols
NorESM (→ GFCS via downscaling)
global
Arctic
All forcings
Anthropogenic GHG
Natural (Solar + volcanoes)
Anthropogenic Aerosols
S/N the fourth
decade ahead
Hawkins and Sutton
BAMS 2009
Climate reanalysis and projections
IPCC AR4 (2007) projected surface temperature changes 2090-2099 relative to
1980-1999 (multi-AOGCM average projection A1B SRES scenario)