Monitoring Earth’s Climate System
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Nilton Montoya Introduction
Current Weather and News
Challenges of Forecasting Snow
Remote Sensing by Satellite
International Cooperation
Modeling Earth’s Climate System
For Next Class: Read Chapter 3 (pp. 67-80)
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE SAN ANTONIO ABAD
DEL CUSCO
Proyecto de Investigación con fondos de canon:
Recursos hídricos, glaciares e indicadores
climáticos en la naciente del rio Vilcanota: Laguna de
Sibinacocha y Nevado del Quisoquipina
Nilton Montoya Jara
Marzo del 2014
UBICACIÓN
LÍNEAS DE TRABAJO DEL PROYECTO:
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Glaciología
Climatología
Hidrología
Geología
Hidrogeología
CONSULTORÍAS
EQUIPOS
CONVENIOS
TESISTAS
LIDAR
SENSORES HIDROMETRICOS
RADAR DE PROFUNDIDAD
IMÁGENES SATELITALES
PLUVIOMETROS TOTALIZADORES
MINAM
SENAMHI
IGP
EGEMSA
SENAMHI
Estación Climática automática sobre el glaciar
Quisoquipina - 5180 msnm
Algunos resultados
Radiación de onda larga
y onda corta
Temperatura del aire
15 de Diciembre del 2014
• AVANCES
Compra del LIDAR
Pluviómetros totalizadores
• Muchas gracias por su atención
February 2009
Bethel, NC
Yes, it does snow in
North Carolina!
January 1977
Matney, NC
Johnson, Southern Snow
100” mean annual snowfall at
highest elevations and >24” from
big storms at middle elevations
Primary
Storm Tracks
Snowfall Forecasting Challenges
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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF): How much liquid
equivalent precipitation will fall?
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Precipitation Type: What form will the precipitation take?
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Numerical models continue to have major challenges with QPF
Depends on storm track, orographic effects, instability, etc.
All snow? Snow and sleet? Snow, sleet, freezing rain? All freezing rain?
Or some combination?
Snow-to-Liquid Ratios (SLRs): What will the density of the
snow be?
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Can be highly variable, from 5:1 (5” of snow out of 1” liquid) to higher
than 40:1 (40” of snow out of 1” of snow)
Higher SLRs for colder NW flow events, lower for warmer Gulf lows
Freezing Rain Formation
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu
Ice Pellet (Sleet) Formation
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu
LIKELY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL LEAD TO RENEWED
LIFT AND CONTINUE TO BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ELIMINATES THE WARM NOSE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE ONE TO TWO FOOT RANGE FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF
NC UP THROUGH THE NRV/ROANOKE AND INTO SOUTHEAST
WV AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL
BE FOUND FURTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
DOWN...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE THIRD OF AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC
UP THROUGH SOUTHSIDE VA.
Blacksburg VA NWS 2:30 AM Forecast Discussion
Radiosonde Release in Peru
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_6iQkwF9KA
Observing the Climate System
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Remote Sensing by Satellite
• Sensors observing Earth from orbiting spacecraft measure
selected wavelengths of the electromagnetic radiation
reflected or emitted by the Earth’s climate system
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Observing the Climate System
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Remote Sensing by Satellite
• Electromagnetic radiation:
both a form of energy and a
means of energy transfer,
travel as waves
• Electromagnetic spectrum:
composed of different forms
of radiation
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Observing the Climate System
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Remote Sensing by Satellite
• Wavelength: distance between
successive wave crests
• Wave Frequency: number of
crests that passes a given point
in a specified period of time
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Observing the Climate System
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Remote Sensing by Satellite
• Satellites fly in either geostationary or polar orbits
Geostationary orbit
© AMS
Polar orbit
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Observing the Climate System
Visible Satellite Image
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Observing the Climate System
Infrared Satellite Image
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GOES Weather Satellites
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http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/
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International Cooperation in
Understanding Earth’s Climate System
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Formed in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme
(UNEP)
• Evaluates the state of climate science
• Composed of three working groups and a task force
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Modeling Earth’s Climate System
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Model: an approximate representation or simulation
of a real system, incorporating only the essential
features of a system while omitting details
considered non-essential or non-predictable
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Modeling Earth’s Climate System
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Physical Model: small-scale portrayal of a system
Numerical Model: consists of many mathematical
equations that simulate the processes under study
• Numerical weather and climate forecasting done at
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
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Modeling Earth’s Climate System
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Modeling Earth’s Climate System
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Short-Term Climate Forecasting
• NCEP’s Climate Prediction Center
• 30-day (monthly), 90-day (seasonal), and multi-seasonal
climate outlooks prepared
• Outlooks issued two weeks to 12.5 months in advance for
the coterminous U.S., Hawaii, and other Pacific islands
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Climate Prediction Center
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
Modeling Earth’s Climate System
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Long-Term Climate Forecasting
• Global Climate Model (GCM): simulates Earth’s climate
system
 Numerical models
 Boundary conditions can be changed to determine how
Earth adjusts to new conditions
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