Climate change and the future
of world agriculture
MARTHA ANNE DEBERRY
SYDNEY FOGLE
RACHEL HIMMELSTEIN
LEIGH SNELGROVE
None Like it Hot
General Information
Effects
Regions
Agriculture
Food Production
North America
North America Climate Change
 Increase in Temperature
 Increase in temperature 1-2°C from 2010-2039
 Greatest in winter at high latitudes and greatest in the summer
in the south-west U.S
 Precipitation
 Decrease in the south-west of the U.S
 Yet increase over the rest of the continent
 Greater risk of flooding with high precipitation
 Risk of droughts because of greater temporal variability in
precipitation
North America Freshwater Resources
 Surface Water
 Melting and significant reductions in snowpack in the western
mountains by the middle of the 21st century
 Water sheds dominated by snowmelt will lead to
snowmelt runoff advances,
 winter and early spring flows increase (raising flooding potential),
 summer flows decrease substantially



Effects to Columbia River
Effects to the Great Lakes
North America Agriculture
 Moderate climate change will likely increase yields of
North American:

Rain-fed agriculture, but with smaller increases and more
spatial variability
 Areas with decreased precipitation would restrict the
availability of water for irrigation

At the same time increasing water demand for irrigated
agriculture and urban and ecological uses
Latin America
Extreme Weather Events from 2004-2006
Latin America Climate Change
DJF= December/January/February, JJA= June/July/August.
Latin America Freshwater Resources
 Almost 13.9% of the Latin American population (71.5
million people) have no access to a safe water supply;
63% of these (45 million people) live in rural areas
 Severe stress can be expected in





Eastern Central America
Eastern and Western regions of El Salvador
Central valley and Pacific regions of Costa Rica
Northern, central and western inter-montane regions of
Honduras
Peninsula of Azuero in Panama
Latin America Agriculture
Predicted 2000-2010 South American and Central American
deforestation hotspots and diffuse deforestation areas .
Europe and Climate Change
Difference between Northern and Southern
Europe
 Northern Europe will benefit from the climate
change.
 Southern Europe will suffer more from the
climate change.
Human Health in Europe
Impact on Socioeconomics
Climate Change and Asia
Impact on Asia’s Agriculture
Asia’s Rice Supply
“No one
eats more
rice than
Asia,”
-Deputy DirectorGeneral for Research at
IRRI (International Rice
Research Institute)
Mongolia
Predicted Effects of Climate
Change on Australia
•A N N U A L A V E R A G E T E M P E R AT U R E I N C R E A S E O F 0 . 4 - 2 . 0 ° C B Y 2 0 3 0
•A N N U A L A V E R A G E T E M P E R AT U R E I N C R E A S E O F 1 . 0 - 6 . 0 ° C B Y 2 0 7 0
•S O U T H W E S T A U S T R A L I A R A I N F A L L D E C L I N E B Y 5 - 2 0 % B Y 2 0 3 0
•S O U T H E A S T A U S T R A L I A R A I N F A L L D E C L I N E B Y 5 - 1 0 % B Y 2 0 7 0
•I N C R E A S E I N I N T E N S I T Y A N D O C C U R R E N C E O F E X T R E M E E V E N T S
Predicted Effects of Climate
Change on Australia
Reduction in
wheat yields
0-5 per cent
5-10 per cent
10-15 per cent
15-20 per cent
> 20 per cent
Predicted Effects of Climate
Change on Australia
CHANGE IN NATIONAL GROSS VALUE OF THE
WHEAT CROP IN YEAR 2070 (A) WITHOUT
ADAPTATION (B) WITH ADAPTATION
Predicted Effects of Climate
Change on Australia
MURRAY-DARLING BASIN
Predicted Effects of Climate
Change on Australia
GOYDER’S LINE
WHEAT BELT
Australia’s Farming Future: Department of
Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
•F A R M R E A D Y
•C L I M A T E C H A N G E A D J U S T M E N T P R O G R A M
•T R A N S I T I O N A L I N C O M E S U P P O R T
•F A R M B U S I N E S S A N A L Y S I S A N D F I N A N C I A L
ASSESSMENT
Predicted Effects of Climate
Change in Africa
Climate Change in Africa:
Cause for Concern
•N A T I O N A L F O O D S E C U R I T Y
ISSUES
•S O U T H A F R I C A N H I G H V E L D
REGION
Farmer Adaptations to
Climate Change in Africa
•D I F F E R E N T C R O P S
•I R R I G A T I O N S Y S T E M S
•S O I L C O N S E R V A T I O N
•C H A N G I N G P L A N T I N G D A T E S
•C H A N G I N G A M O U N T O F L A N D U N D E R
CULTIVATION
•I M P L E M E N T I N G N E W T E C H N O L O G Y
Barriers to Adaptation to
Climate Change in Africa
Responses
Preventative
Adaptive
Technological
Preventative Measures
The “Greening Hypothesis”
Adaptation
Technological
Questions?
Resources
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Australian Government: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry. “Australia’s Farming Future.”
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<http://www.agrifood.info/review/2006/Kingwell.pdf>.
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<http://go.worldbank.org/0XAV4BYO60>. 26 Apr 2010.
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