Higher Education and Florida’s Economy in 2027
Mark Rosenberg, Chancellor, State University System
Judy Genshaft, President, University of South Florida
Joe Shepard, VP for Administration and Finance, Florida Gulf Coast University
August 1, 2007
1
Three Key Questions
• Where Will the State Get 10 Million
Graduates?
• What Quality Should Students Expect?
• How Will Their Education be Financed?
2
Operating Assumptions
• 2 + 2 System Works – Strong Partner
Relationship with Community Colleges
• Accountability is the Cornerstone of Any
Effective System—We Are Performance
Oriented
• Cheaper is Not Always Better
3
One Million More 18-34 Year-Olds by 2027
100%
2012
2027
SUS AGE GROUPS
37%
29% 26%
26%
25%
24%
22%
22% 21%
18%
16%
11%
10%
9%
8% 8% 4% 5% 7%
3%
-5%
0-4
5-9 10-14 15-17 18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 65+
All
4
18-34 Population by Race/Ethnicity
2007
2012
2027
52%51%
45%
30%
25%25%
20%20%21%
3% 3% 4%
Hispanic
Black nonHispanic
Other nonHispanic
White nonHispanic
5
Minority Participation Rates Will Shape
the Future
6
How Much Education Do We Expect
for Today’s Newborns?
2027
SUS
Bachelor
Degrees
46,000
2027
SUS
Enrollment
294,000
Status Quo: No change in
student achievement
56,000
369,000
$ 3.8
26%
1/3 of children complete
college
63,000
413,000
$ 4.2
41%
1/2 of children
complete college
95,000
627,000
$ 6.4
113%
2007 Baseline
Does not include future inflation. Based on current
funding/student. Add 12% to reach national average level of
funding.
2027
SUS Core
Increase
Budget
(Billions)
$ 3.0
-
7
$14,000
27
$13,500
25
$13,000
23
$12,500
$12,000
21
$11,500
19
$11,000
$10,500
17
Students Per Tenured/Tenure-Track
Faculty
$14,500
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08 est
State Funds and Tuition per FTE
Student
Quality Suffers When Funding Lags
Behind Rising Enrollment and Costs
State Funds and Tuition per FTE Student
Students per faculty
8
Constant 2005-06 dollars, adjusted using the Higher Education Price Index at www.commonfund.org. Fulland part-time tenured and tenure track and multi-year contract faculty
Sources of the $8.2 Billion Operating
Budget
Auxiliaries
(Housing, Food
Service,
Parking)
11%
Contracts &
Grants (Mostly
Federal) for
Research
20%
Tuition and
Fees
11%
53.8%
State Funds:
Lottery
3%
State Funds:
General
Revenue
27%
Local Funds
(Athletics,
Financial Aid
Flow-Through
(State/Federal)
21%
Faculty Practice
(Patient Fees,
Hospitals)
7%
9
Expenditures from the Core Budget
Administration
and Support
11%
Institutes &
Centers
3%
Clinics
1%
Museums/Radio/
TV
1%
Extension
1%
Student Svcs.
6%
Plant Operations
and Maintenance
10%
Instruction and
Research
63%
Libraries
4%
10
Sources of State Funds for Construction:
$4 Billion from 1996-2008
Public
Education
Capital Outlay
(PECO) from
Utilities and
Communications Taxes
89%
General
Revenue
(Primarily for
Matching
Private
Donations)
8%
Lottery
(Primarily
Matching
Funds for
Private
Donations)
2%
Other
1%
11
The ROI: Economic Impact of a Bachelor
Degree
• Approx. $20,000 annually in additional
earnings over HS Diploma ($16,000 for
women, $24,000 for men)
• =$2,000 more in annual state/local taxes
• =$50,000 more in state/local taxes over 25
years
• 50,000 annual degrees = $25 billion more in
career income, $2.5 billion in long-term
state/local tax revenue
12
13
Recommendation #1: Revise Current Use
of Lottery Funds/Bright Futures
• Limit future growth of Bright Futures.
• Enhance need-based aid
• Increase funds to match private gifts to
universities
14
Recommendation #2: Use Dedicated
Funding Streams to Improve Predictability
• Protect Higher Education’s Share of Public
Education Capital Outlay (PECO)
• Consider tax on services that require
postsecondary credentials
• Consider additional tobacco tax (applied
to manufacturers exempt from settlement)
15
Recommendation #3: Create Large
Forgivable Loan Program
• $500-$1 billion annual loan volume
• Low interest, no principal repayments
until income exceeds $30,000
• 1/3 forgivable for working in Florida five
years
• 1/3 forgivable for working in a priority
occupation for five years
16
17
College and University Cost Increases
2001-2007, U.S. Averages
Consumer Price Index
Higher Education Price Index
17%
26%
59%
Utilities
Supplies and Material
Misc. Services
24%
19%
38%
Fringe Benefits
Service Employee Salaries
Clerical Salaries
17%
20%
Administrative Salaries
Faculty salaries
31%
20%
18
Average Earnings Increase by Highest
Degree Attained (U.S.), 1991-2005
54%
50%
Doctorate
47%
51%
Masters
45%
47% National
Bachelor Degree
36%
40%
Associate
Some College
34%
42%
Center for
Education
Statistics,
Condition of
Education
2006
40%
36%
HS Diploma
19
Men
Women
SUS Expenditures per
Full-Time Student, 2001-02 to 2006-07
Instruction and
research per
FTE
Admin and
Support per
FTE
2001-02
$8,663
$1,651
2006-07
5-Year
Change
$8,220
$1,437
-5%
-13%
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
20
Change in Southern States’ Spending per
Student on Public Universities, 2001-2006
South Carolina
Delaware
Louisiana
Kentucky
Texas
Alabama
Tennessee
Oklahoma
North Carolina
SREB states
Maryland
Mississippi
Arkansas
West Virginia
Virginia
Georgia
($2,000)
Florida
($1,000)
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
21
Total Funding per Full-Time Equivalent
Student—History and Current Situation
$15,000
$14,000
Recession
$13,000
Post 9/11 cuts
CURRENT OPTIONS
$12,000
$11,000
Lottery introduced to
enhance education funds
-10%
19
8
19 8-8
8 9
19 9-9
9 0
19 0-9
9 1
19 1-9
9
19 2-92
9 3
19 3-9
9 4
19 4-9
9 5
19 5-9
9 6
19 6-9
9 7
19 7-9
9 8
19 8-9
9 9
20 9-0
0 0
20 0-0
0 1
20 1-0
0 2
20 2-0
0
20 3-03
0 4
20 4-0
05 5
2
20 0 -0
07 06 6
-0 -07
8
es
t
$10,000
No cut
-4%
Constant 2005-06 dollars per FTE
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
22
$14,000
27
$13,500
25
$13,000
23
$12,500
$12,000
21
$11,500
19
$11,000
$10,500
17
Students Per Tenured/Tenure-Track
Faculty
$14,500
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08 est
State Funds and Tuition per FTE
Student
Funding per Full-Time Equivalent Student and
Student/Faculty Ratios
State Funds and Tuition per FTE Student
Students per faculty
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
23
4% Reductions We Can’t Afford
• 17,000 Students . . . or
• University of North Florida . . . or
• 1,000 faculty . . . or
• All four law schools and all 10 history
departments . . . or
• All travel, library purchases, and ???
(still not 4%)
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
24
10% Reductions We Can’t Afford
• 42,000 Students . . . or
• FIU . . . or
• IFAS and all four law schools . . . or
• All assistant professors . . . or
• All 10 business schools . . .
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
25
Scale of 4% and 10% Cuts in Operational
Terms
Budget Cut Amount
equivalent to
Enrollment Reduction
or
Faculty Reduction
or
Library Books not
Purchased
or
Support Personnel:
Police Officers,
Counselors, Advisors,
Other Student Support
4%
$100,000,000
10%
$250,000,000
17,000
42,000
1,000
2,500
1,500,000
3,700,000
2,000
5,000
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
26
Efficiency
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
27
Florida’s Graduation Rates are High
Relative to Funding
Virginia
Delaware
South Carolina
North Carolina
Funds per FTE
(05-06)
12,259
20,293
14,218
13,496
Graduation Rate
%, (99-05)
65.5
64.5
59.7
59.1
Florida
11,808
58.8
Maryland
Texas
Alabama
Georgia
Mississippi
Tennessee
Kentucky
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Arkansas
Louisiana
SREB states
US Avg
16,562
12,339
12,137
11,621
12,554
11,818
14,288
10,573
9,347
11,939
9,002
12,327
58.6
55.0
48.6
48.3
48.2
46.4
45.9
45.9
45.4
38.8
35.7
52.5
54.1
Notes:
1)Average % of
freshmen who
graduated from the
same institution within
six years.Including insystem transfers, the
six-year SUS graduation
rate is 63.7%, but
comparable data not
available for other
states.
2)The average time
from freshman
enrollment to degree is
4.2 years.
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
28
Comparison of Direct and Indirect
Expenditures Per Credit
INDIRECT EXPENDITURES
Lower
Upper
Grad I
Grad II
2001-02
$103.25
$132.39
$193.98
$247.14
2004-05
$95.82
$124.21
$179.95
$234.65
2005-06
$96.47
$122.07
$186.15
$229.78
1 YEAR
CHANGE
0.7%
-1.7%
3.4%
-2.1%
4 YEAR
CHANGE
-6.6%
-7.8%
-4.0%
-7.0%
2005-06
$85.49
$137.39
$335.24
$531.59
1 YEAR
CHANGE
3.0%
-3.0%
-0.3%
-8.5%
4 YEAR
CHANGE
-3.3%
-5.6%
-1.1%
-11.6%
DIRECT EXPENDITURES
Lower
Upper
Grad I
Grad II
2001-02
$88.41
$145.54
$339.10
$601.19
2004-05
$83.00
$141.59
$336.22
$580.91
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
29
Inflation-Adjusted Spending Per UpperDivision Credit Hour
AGRIBUSINESS & AG.
PRODUCTN
ARCHITECTURE & ENVIR.
DESIGN
MASS COMMUNICATIONS
COMPUTER & INFO. SCIENCE
EDUCATION
ENGINEERING
FOREIGN LANGUAGES
LETTERS
LIFE SCIENCES
PHYSICAL SCIENCES
PSYCHOLOGY
SOCIAL SCIENCES
VISUAL AND PERF. ARTS
HEALTH PROFESSIONS
BUS.AND MANAGEMENT
Total
2001-02
2004-05
2005-06
4-Year
Change
$475
$445
$398
-16%
$429
$226
$260
$304
$485
$263
$236
$317
$468
$232
$250
$407
$353
$199
$278
$341
$229
$360
$272
$442
$245
$240
$290
$445
$205
$212
$387
$329
$199
$266
$392
$249
$370
$248
$400
$237
$236
$309
$435
$210
$215
$363
$285
$201
$259
-8%
10%
42%
-18%
-17%
-10%
0%
-2%
-7%
-10%
-14%
-11%
-19%
1%
-7%
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
30
Funding Comparisons
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
31
Funding Change for Public Universities,
Florida and SREB States, 2001-2006
From Southern
Regional Education
Board (SREB),
Florida Featured
Facts 2007
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
32
Cuts Would Further Erode Florida’s
Relative Position in the South
Southern States Public University Funding per Full-Time Student, 2005-06
(Thousands)
Delaware
Maryland
Kentucky
South Carolina
North Carolina
Mississippi
Texas
SREB states
Virginia
Alabama
Arkansas
Tennessee
Florida
Georgia
Florida after 4% cut
Florida after 10%
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Louisiana
$6.8
$7.9
$7.1
$13.5
$8.7
$7.2
$4.8
$9.5
$9.2
$6.5
$6.6
$6.8
$5.7
$6.3
$7.0
$6.3
$8.3
$7.7
$8.0
$7.5
$5.7
$3.8
$5.1
$4.3
$6.1
$5.7
$5.5
$6.6
$5.9
$5.0
$5.5
$3.5
$3.9
$3.5
$3.5
$4.8
Appropriations
Tuition and Fees
$5.5
$3.9
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
33
Cuts Would Further Erode Florida’s
Relative Position in the South
Southern States Public University Funding per Full-Time Student,
2005-06 (Thousands)
Delaware (#1)
$6.8
Maryland (#2)
$13.5
$7.9
SREB average
$8.7
$6.8
Florida (#12)
$5.5
$8.3
$3.5
Georgia (#13)
$7.7
$3.9
Florida after 4% cut
$8.0
$3.5
Florida after 10% cut
West Virginia (#15)
Louisiana (#16)
$7.5
$3.8
$5.1
$3.5
$5.5
$3.9
Appropriations
Tuition and Fees
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
34
Change in Southern States’ Spending Per
FTE University Student
South Carolina
Delaware
Louisiana
Kentucky
Texas
Alabama
Tennessee
Oklahoma
North Carolina
SREB states
Maryland
Mississippi
Arkansas
West Virginia
Virginia
Florida
Georgia
2005-06
2000-01
Change
14,218
20,293
9,002
14,288
12,339
12,137
11,818
10,573
13,496
12,327
16,562
12,554
11,939
9,347
12,259
11,808
11,621
11,081
17,934
7,987
13,434
11,609
11,483
11,263
10,074
13,049
11,974
16,242
12,436
11,861
9,356
12,618
12,488
13,191
3,137
2,360
1,016
855
730
654
555
499
447
353
320
118
79
-9
-359
-680
-1,570
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
35
Funding History
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
36
Inflation-Adjusted Funding Per FTE
Compared to 1991 Levels
15%
Comm.
Colls
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
2006-07
-20%
2003-04
2000-01
1997-98
1994-95
1991-92
Public
Schools
1988-89
1985-86
1982-83
SUS
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
37
Library Cost Increases--Examples
2000
Average Print Journal
Subscription Price
2007
$370
Increase
$ 635
71%
Statewide Contracts for Electronic Journals/Databases (FL Center For
Library Automation)
2000
Cost of Databases/Journals
Maintained in 2000
New Databases/Journals
Total
2007
$1,600,000
$ 2,000,000
-
1,300,000
1,600,000
3,300,000
Increase
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
23%
107%
38
Impact of Current Funding Levels
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
39
Beginning Spanish Section Sizes
Emory
Clemson
UNC Chapel Hill
FSU
UF
Miami University, Ohio
UNC Ashville
UCF
FIU
0
Average Class Size
10
20
30
40
50
Maximum Class Size
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
40
Freshman Composition Section Sizes
UNC Chapel Hill
UF
UNC Asheville
U of Mississippi
Miami University, Ohio
Ohio State U
FSU
Georgia Tech
UCF
FIU
0
Average Class Size
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Maximum Class Size
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
41
Organic Chemistry Section Sizes
UNC Ashville
Miami University, Ohio
Clemson
U of Mississippi
Emory
USF
FIU
UNC Chapel Hill
Georgia Tech
UF
Ohio State U
UCF
0
50
Average Class Size
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Maximum Class Size
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
42
Physical Chemistry Section Sizes
UNC Asheville
USF
FIU
UCF
Emory
UF
FSU
UNC Chapel
U of Mississippi
Ohio State U
Georgia Tech
0
50
Average Class Size
100
150
200
250
300
Maximum Class Size
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
43
Intro Biology Section Sizes
UNC Asheville
USF
Miami University, Ohio
FIU
UCF
UF
0
Average Class Size
100
200
300
400
500
Maximum Class Size
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
44
Business Plan / Tuition Freeze
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
45
What Would it Take to Increase Funding
8% Annually?
Combinations leading to an 8% average increase, assuming 2%
enrollment growth:
Opt. 1 Opt. 2
Opt. 3
Opt. 4
Opt. 5
State funds increase
0%
5%
7.5%
8.5%
10.5%
Average tuition
increase
18%
12%
7.5%
5%
0%
Average revenue
increase
8%
8%
8%*
8%
8%
Note that a tuition increase of 7.5% with enrollment growth of 2%
would generate tuition revenue growth of 9.5%
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
46
Effect of Growth Freezes on Total
System Enrollment (1000s)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Meet all growth in demand
(no freeze)
302
310
318
325
331
337
341
344
Freshman growth freeze
only
299
303
307
311
315
318
320
323
Freeze new student growth
at all levels except AA
transfers
299
302
305
308
310
312
314
315
Freeze all new admissions
298
300
301
301
301
301
301
301
Reduce admissions 1% per
year, increase retention rate
1% per year
298
300
301
301
301
301
301
301
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
47
Effect of Freezing Freshman
Enrollment Growth
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2012
2014
Growth at same
rate as Bright
Futures / HS
graduates
31,100 38,500 38,300 40,900 42,500 44,300 44,500 44,600
No growth in
freshman class
31,100 38,500 38,300 38,300 38,300 38,300 38,300 38,300
Difference
0
0
0
2,600
4,200
6,000
6,200
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
6,400
48
System Enrollment (1000s) Based on
Selected Policy/Budget Scenarios
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
MEET ALL GROWTH IN DEMAND (NO FREEZE)
FRESHMAN FREEZE ONLY
FREEZE ALL LEVELS EXCEPT AA TRANSFERS
FREEZE ALL NEW ADMISSIONS
REDUCE ADMISSIONS 1% PER YEAR, ANNUALLY,
INCREASE RETENTION RATE 1% PER YEAR
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
49
How Close are Universities to 40% Fee
Cap?
$35.00
$30.00
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$UF
FSU
FAMU USF
FAU
Current Fee Total
UWF
UCF
FIU
UNF
FGCU
NCF
Statutory Cap of $29.48
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
50
Background Data on SUS
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
51
SUS Fall Enrollment Since 1990
1990
1995
2000
2005
2006
FAMU
8,379
10,277
12,161
12,176
11,913
FAU
13,180
18,137
21,466
25,994
25,657
FGCU
-
-
3,653
7,254
8,316
FIU
22,528
28,216
31,458
37,424
38,537
FSU
28,824
30,301
34,485
39,668
40,378
NCF
-
-
-
763
746
UCF
21,694
26,715
33,975
45,090
46,907
UF
36,338
39,703
45,900
50,298
51,314
UNF
8,093
10,492
12,762
15,420
16,091
USF
32,727
36,343
36,379
43,591
44,251
UWF
8,012
8,309
8,514
9,657
9,906
Total
179,775
208,493
240,753
287,335
294,016
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
52
SUS Degrees Since 1990-91
90-91
95-96
00-01
04-05
05-06
Bach 26,403 32,210 35,724 43,304 45,015
Doctorate
760
1,058
1,221
1,518
1,618
First Prof
1,033
1,002
1,245
1,584
1,674
Masters
6,367
8,807
10,766 13,365 12,908
Total 34,564 43,077 48,956 59,771 61,215
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
53
Undergraduate Residency Since 1990
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006
Florida 89.5% 91.6% 91.4% 94.0% 94.5%
Non10.5% 8.4% 8.6% 6.0% 5.5%
Florida
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
54
Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Since 1990
1990
1995
2000
2005
2006
Asian
2.7%
3.8%
4.3%
4.6%
4.7%
Black
9.8%
12.6%
14.4%
14.0%
13.9%
Hispanic
9.4%
12.6%
14.0%
16.2%
16.9%
Native Indian
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
NonRes Alien
3.3%
3.5%
4.3%
4.3%
3.8%
White
74.1%
66.9%
61.5%
58.7%
58.6%
Not Reported
0.5%
0.4%
1.1%
1.8%
1.8%
Total
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Board of Governors, State University System of Florida
55
70.0%
What Are Some Leading Indicators?
Trends in Leading Indicators of Performance
60.0%
60.8% 62.1%
53.1% 53.9%
50.0%
40.0%
29.6% 29.8%
30.0%
20.0%
55.7%
65.3%
63.0%
57.5% 57.1% 57.5%
34.0% 33.4% 32.7% 32.9%
31.7%
36.2%
31.0%
27.0%
19.0%
Bright Fut. Elig. ,% of HS Grads
SAT-Takers, % of HS Grads
8th Graders Proficient or Advanced--Math NAEP
10.0%
0.0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
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Are We Becoming More Selective?
Fall FTIC Admissions and Yield %
90.0%
85.0%
80.0%
75.0%
73.6%
72.3%
73.5%
75.5%
70.5% 69.5% 70.5%
69.2%
70.0%
67.1% 66.6% 66.0%
65.0%
60.0%
55.0%
50.0% 52.0% 52.6% 54.0%
59.3% 60.5% 59.7% 60.4%
58.7%
56.9% 56.8% 57.8%
45.0%
40.0%
1995
1996
1997
1998 1999 2000 2001
% Admitted
Yield
2002
2003
2004
2005
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What is Our Market Share?
40.0%
Florida Resident Freshman (FTIC) Enrollment as
Percentage of Recent HS Grads and 18-Year Old
Population
30.0%
22.6%
20.0%
10.0%
18.2%
19.1%
11.1% 11.2%
23.8%
25.3% 24.8% 24.8% 24.9% 24.9% 25.1%
20.6%
12.2%
15.6% 15.6% 15.7%
14.7% 14.5% 15.4%
13.2% 13.8%
HS Grads
18-Year Old Population
0.0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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Are Freshmen Better Prepared?
1200
3.8
1190
Fall Freshman Avg. GPA and
SAT Scores 1995-2005
1180
3.7
1170
3.6
1150
3.5
GPA
SAT
1160
1140
3.4
1130
1120
3.3
1110
1100
SAT
H.S. GPA
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
3.2
1156 1128 1139 1140 1141 1141 1133 1133 1142 1141 1151
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.6
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What is the Market Share of the
Community Colleges for Bachelor Ed?
Students
Credit
Hours
Bachelor
Degrees
St.
Petersburg
1,498
21,753
223
Miami
Dade
226
3,777
0
OkaloosaWalton
213
1,593
2
Chipola
12
549
1
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