By: Richard Heinberg
Albert Lin
Anisa Hays
Nate Jordan
Zack Bunkers
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
Professor at New College in California
Focuses on Ecological Issues, including Oil
Depletion
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
Of 44 significant oil-producing nations, 24 are
clearly past peak production
German Parliament advisors Werner Zittel and
Jorg Schindler wrote in 2002 that “The peak of oil
discovery was in the 1960’s… This peak in
discoveries has to be followed by a peak in
production since we can only produce what has
been found before. The production peak of
individual fields is a historical fact, [and] almost all
large oil fields have already passed their
production maximum and are in decline.”
Russia, the world’s 2nd largest exporter of oil,
won’t be able to grow their industry after 2007.

“To meet projected demand in 2015, the industry
will have to add about 100 million oil-equivalent
barrels a day of new production. That’s equal to
about 80 percent of today’s production level. In
other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop
and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is
equal to 8 out of every 10 barrels being produced
today. In addition the cost associated with
providing this additional oil and gas is expected to
be considerably more than what industry is now
spending”.
-Jon Thompson,
exploration division president of ExxonMobil.
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Natural Gas represents 24% of total energy used in
US
½ of American homes are heated with Natural Gas
The price in 2000 was $2 per thousand cubic feet
The price in 2004 was $8 per thousand cubic feet
North America has passed peak production
In 2002, the US imported 15% of it’s natural gas
from Canada.
That same year, Mexico stopped exporting its
natural gas to the US and started importing it from
the US
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
A plan for a global gas infrastructure has been
proposed by world leaders. It would function
in the same way that oil is currently imported
and exported.
Unfortunately, a global gas infrastructure
would no sooner be completed than the global
peak of natural gas production would have
passed.

Fossil Fuels = Inheritance

Other Energy = Wage Earnings

No alternative fuel can sustain our current
growing energy needs
All human activities require energy
 Energy is the capacity to do work
 Less available energy = less work can be done
 Efforts must be made to create more efficient
economic processes


Food Production is Put at Risk
Large farming operations are nearly impossible
without oil and natural gas
 Current farming techniques and machinery rely
almost entirely on fossil fuels
 Petroleum based fertilizers, pesticides, and
herbicides will no longer be cost effective


The world is facing an impending energy
famine that will lead to a Power Down or a
Powerdown
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
Power Down- A forced shutting down of society as
we know it due to an energy famine
Powerdown- A deliberate reformation of society to
address and avoid the oncoming energy famine
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
An energy famine is a result of the fact that
there are limited resources in the world.
Due to the unsustainable consumption of these
resources, we are now facing an energy famine.

When societies begin expanding with no
effective limits to growth, they come to face
either a maintenance crisis or a depletion crisis.

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A maintenance crisis occurs when production falls
short of maintenance needs.
A depletion crisis occurs when resources essential
for production are depleted.


The Roman Empire
failed due to both a
maintenance crisis as
well as a depletion
crisis.
The Mayan Empire
fell due to a depletion
crisis.
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A civilization’s increased food production will
spark population growth, which calls for
greater food production, resulting in a vicious
cycle.
Geographically limited societies will collapse
relatively quickly from environmental damage
while those that aren’t limited can survive for
decades or even centuries after the beginning
of a crisis.

Last Man Standing


Waiting for a Magic Elixir

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The path of wishful thinking, false hopes and denial
Powerdown
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The path of competition for remaining resources
The path of cooperation, conservation and sharing
Lifeboats
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The path of community solidarity and preservation
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We are currently taking the path of Last Man
Standing, which has been the status quo.
Nations are competing for resources in order to
be the most developed nations.
America is the only remaining superpower,
and we have taken measures to maintain it.

Organisms naturally compete for control of
resources

Humans have developed lethal weaponry, leading to
an inability to surrender, which forces the
elimination of competition.
Types of Competition
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Participants

Powerful consumers v.
Weak resource holders

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Effects

Fight to steal resources
Civil War

Fight to control
resources

Consumer v. Consumer

Fight for highest
bidder

Terrorists

Fight against civilians
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The idea of a free
market is a failed
attempt to eliminate
lethal competition.

Why would you
fight for resources
when you can buy
them?

In the last eight years,
we have seen a failure
of the Free-Market
idea in our “War on
Terrorism.”

Iraq didn’t have
WMD’s, it had
valuable resources,
which we wanted to
control.

What resources did we want from Iraq?

We wanted to control the oil that Iraq has in order to
improve our fiscal standing, which would contribute
to our world power.

Human nature calls for violent control of
resources, which neither civilization nor the
world could survive.

We can voluntarily
dramatically reduce
our energy
consumption so that
we can avoid an
actual famine.

We can squeeze our
eyes shut, cover our
ears, spin around a
few times and hope
that nothing bad
happens.

Values Debate:
“comparison of values that we have and
values that we need to have”
Moralistic
(Framework)
vs.
Ethical
(Framework)

Restructure Way of Thinking:
“in order to save ourselves we do not need to
evolve new organs; we just need to change
our way of thinking”

Sustaining Human Society:
Reduce Economic Activity
 Change in Political System
 Reduce the Scale of Effective Political Power
 Reduce the Population Levels

“ A peaceful global powerdown is possible only if America
leads the way. If current American Domestic and Foreign
policies continue, powerdown efforts on the part of the
nations will result in improved survival options for the
people of those nations, but the world as a whole by far the
most likely outcome will be devastating resource wars
continuing until the resources themselves are exhausted, the
human species is extinct, or the fabric of modern societies
has been shredded to the point that anarchy-in the worst
possible sense- prevails nearly everywhere.”

The proposed solutions to all of our energy
problems


All we have to do is just… (insert new sources here)
Only provides partial answers to the energy famine

Hydrocarbon Sources

Most commonly suggested solutions
 Tar Sands Oil Reserves
 Methane Hydrates
 Hydrogen

Extraction

Processing

Prohibitive Costs

Extraction

Dangers

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Politically Popular
Environmental
Concerns
Problems of Efficiency
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The Promise of New Energy
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The Finite World vs. The Growth Machine
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Liebig’s Law

Lack of one necessity will undermine an organism’s
ability to survive

The most commonly proposed solutions to our
energy famine are not viable options.

We can build lifeboats, in order to save the
necessary aspects of our culture.

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Initially, we would be concerned about
personal and family survival.
A slightly better response would be to work
towards community survival.

Both are problematic in that they will facilitate
competition between either individuals or
communities.
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We should seek to do better than survive, and
should plan for cultural survival.
This can be done through cultural preservation
centers that serve as libraries, universities, and
research stations.

Most important to conserve the moral lesson behind
industrial society’s collapse: we must keep our
population below the ecosystem’s long-term carrying
capacity by keeping resource consumption within the
regenerative capacity of the ecosystem.

We should not only plan for community
survival, but cultural survival through the use
of cultural preservation centers.

Last Man Standing
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Powerdown
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America must lead the way to a powerdown, even
though it will be costly on a global scale
Magic Elixir


Human nature calls for violent control of resources,
which neither civilization nor the world could survive.
The most commonly proposed solutions to our energy
famine are not viable options.
Building Lifeboats

We should not only plan for community survival, but
cultural survival through the use of cultural preservation
centers.

Heinberg argues that we should pursue a
policy of building lifeboats and a voluntary
powerdown.