Chapter 7
Public Opinion
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WHO GOVERNS?
1. How does public opinion in America
today vary by race, gender, and other
differences?
2. What is political ideology, and how
does it affect political behavior and
influence public policy?
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TO WHAT ENDS?
1. What role did the Framers of the
Constitution think public opinion
should play in American democracy?
2. When, if ever, should public policies
mirror majority opinion?
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Warm-up
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Why do you think government there
is many gaps between what the
government does and what the
people want?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t
VpKgMCtukk
Public opinion polls
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Public Opinion and Democracy
The Framers of the Constitution created a
government to achieve certain goals:
“to form a more perfect Union, establish
Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility,
provide for the common defense, promote
the general Welfare, and secure the
Blessing of Liberty.”
– Preamble to the Constitution
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What is Public Opinion?
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How Polling Works
• Poll
• Random sample
• Sampling error
• Exit polls
Jonathan Nourok/PhotoEdit
American politics is intensely local, as
when Rep. Loretta Sanchez shakes
hands with a voter in her California
district. p. 156
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
How polling works
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Poll=survey of public opinion can
capture the views of 300 million by
interviewing as few as 1,500 people!
Keys to a good poll: positive,
comprehensible questions, wording
questions fairly
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Random Sample
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Means that any given voter or adult
has an equal chance of being
interviewed
Ex: make a list of all geographic
units in a country (ex. Counties),
group them by size of poulation,
then select random units from each
population, (down to neighborhoods)
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Sampling error
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Difference between the results of 2
surveys
Ex. One random sample shows 70%
of people approve the president, the
2nd shows 65%, it has a sampling
error of 5%
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Exit polls
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Since 1952, every major poll has
successfully picked the winner of the
presidential election
Interviews with randomly selected
voters conducted at polling places to
get a representative sample of voting
in districts (but it is hard with close
elections)
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How does polling work?
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Usually takes 500,000 population,
pollsters need to make 15,000 calls
to reach 1,065 people to do the
survey (get a +-3% margin of error)
Read page 158: How the 2008
Presidential Primary Polling Went
Wrong
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What is Public Opinion?

How Opinions Differ
• Opinion saliency
• Opinion stability
• Opinion-policy
congruence
Jim Cole/AP Photo
Clinton winning over Obama and
Edwards in New Hampshire
when the polls said otherwise,
p. 158
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D
vodhsMc2QM
Identify and discuss some of the
examples that are brought to light in
this clip on public opinion
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
How opinions differ
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Opinion saliency=some care about
certain issues more than others
Opinion stability=some issues
opinions are pretty steady; others
pretty volatile
Opinion policy congruence=some
issues government seems in sync
with public; others it does not
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Warm-up T Q1
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Which of the following statements best describes the
gender gap?
A. women are more likely than men to vote for a female
candidate
B. women are more likely than men to vote for a
Democratic presidential candidate
C. men are more likely than women to vote for a
Democratic presidential candidate
D. women change their ideologies more than men do when
they marry
E. unmarried men are more likely to vote for a female
candidate than married men
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A1
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B. Voting-age women support the
Democratic Party in higher
percentages than men
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Q-2
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All of the following are characteristics of an accurate
random sample EXCEPT
A. the questions must be asked in clear, unemotional
language
B. people must have some knowledge of the things they
are asked about
C. the sample must include at least 10% of the population
D. each person must have an equal chance of being
interviewed
E. even the most accurate polls have some sampling error.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
A2
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C accurate polling requires a random
sample with clear questions about
understandable topics. Although
larger samples are more accurate,
they are expensive. For any
population over 500,000 at least
1,065 respondents are necessary to
provide 95% confidence, plus or
minus 3 %
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Q3
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What is the effect of a college education on political
attitudes?
A. people with college degrees tend to be more
conservative, because they have higher than average
incomes
B. people who have attended college tend to vote more as
independents because they think more ideologically
C. people with college degrees are not as liberal as their
parents
D. people with college degrees describe themselves as
liberal.
E. there is no correlation between a college education and
political attitudes.
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AQ3
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D. Although people who attend
college are not as liberal as they
used to be, they are still more likely
to describe themselves as liberal.
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Political Socialization
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Political socialization – process by
which background traits influence
one’s political views
Genes and the Family
Religion
The Gender Gap
Bob Daemmirch/The Image Works
Children grow up learning, but not
always following, their parents’
political beliefs. p. 159
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Mistake of the 2000 election
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http://www.youtub
e.com/watch?v=xIDdsYVjtk&list=PL
1184A8987EC3D52
1
Cnn pulls back
gore winning
florida
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http://www.youtub
e.com/watch?v=qr
khywYX15k
Gore wins florida
Predict=what
problems is this
going to cause
president/country/
citizens?voters?
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Reading on how Genes affect
political affiliation
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Read article,
discuss
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Genes and Family
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1/3 of differences
among political
beliefs come from
genetics (twins)
1/10 come from
family influence
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Do you know the
make up of your
family politics?
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Source: Institute of Politics, The 15th Biannual Youth Survey on Politics and Public Service, John F. Kennedy
School of Government, Harvard University, October 2008.
Source: Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Survey: More Americans Question Religion’s Role in Politics,
August 21, 2008, sections 3 and 4.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Religion
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Issues like gay
marriage, abortion
but matter less on
economy, war
http://www.youtub
e.com/watch?v=hB
AiwGzGuvI
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Look at chart next
slide
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Gen Dems: The Party’s Advantage Among
Young Voters Widens, April 28, 2008.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Gender Gap
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Difference between
men and women
political views
Since 1980,
women have voted
in a higher rate
then men/also
more women then
men in voting
population
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Democrats have
the advantage of
the women
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Political socialization
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http://www.youtub
e.com/watch?v=gS
BPHSAEdYM
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Figure 7.1 Gender Gaps on
Issue Importance (2006)
Source: Ms. magazine/WDN Poll, Lake Research Partners, surveying 1,000 randomly
selected likely voters November 6–7, 2006.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Cleavages in Public Opinion
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Social
Class=working-class
(blue collar), upperclass (white collar)
Race and Ethnicity
Region
Lester Cohen/WireImage.com/Getty Images
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio
Villaraigosa speaks to
supporters. p. 164
Race and ethnicity
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AA=Dem. (some
younger AA voting
republican for
school vouchers)
Minorities=Dem
Asian Am/Anglo
whites=Rep.
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Obama won women by 12 %
and Romney won men by 8%
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Region
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South less
liberal/East/West
Coast Liberal
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Political Ideology
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Political ideology - A more or less
consistent set of beliefs about what
policies government ought to pursue.
Mass Ideologies: A Typology
Liberal and Conservative Elites
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Take the typology quiz

Go to this website:
http://typology.peoplepress.org/typology
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Source: Adapted from
“Profiles of the Typology
Groups: Beyond Red and
Blue,” Pew Research
Center for the People and
the Press, 2005.
Political Elites, Public Opinion,
and Public Policy
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Political elites – persons with a
disproportionate share of political
power.
Elites raise and frame political issues.
Elites state the norms by which
issues should be settled.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Political Elites, Public Opinion,
and Public Policy
HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DO ELITES
HAVE ON THE FOLLOWING?
 Racism
 Sexism
 Economic problems
 Crime
 Drugs
 Foreign affairs
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
MEMORANDUM
To: Cecilia Kennedy, U.S. Representative
From: Ronald Edwards, legislative assistant
Subject: Vote on comprehensive immigration reform
The 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) sought to stem
illegal immigration by imposing penalties on employers who hire
them, while permitting the estimated 3 million illegal immigrants at
the time to attain legal status. Since then, however, the number of
illegal immigrants in the United States has quadrupled, while law
enforcement efforts to punish employers or deport those immigrants
have been minimal. Your district is not directly affected by
immigration, but voters have concerns both about maintaining law
and order, and providing economic opportunities for people who have
resided in this country for many years.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
Arguments for:
1. Your district contains a large proportion of first-generation
Americans, who favor a “path to citizenship” for immigrants
who have lived in this country for years, regardless of their
legal status.
2. Illegal immigrants often take menial jobs that nobody else
wants, and contribute to the U.S. economy by paying taxes
and buying goods and services.
3. A “path to citizenship,” with fines and other penalties for
being in the country illegally, is the most realistic option for
individuals who have family and other long-term ties in the
United States.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
Arguments against:
1. Your party leaders oppose comprehensive immigration
reform, saying that enhanced border security must be a
higher priority.
2. Illegal immigrants take jobs away from native-born
Americans and cost more in public services, such as
education and emergency health care, than they contribute
to the economy.
3. People who entered the country illegally must not be
rewarded for breaking the law, and enforcement can be
effective with sufficient resources.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
Your decision:
Vote for bill?
Vote against bill?
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