Recent Economic Developments in Singapore Outline for this Presentation Structure of the Singapore Economy Business Cycles in Singapore Dynamics of the 2001 Recession Characteristics of the Initial Upturn Support Provided by Policy Structure of the Singapore Economy Importance of Trade to Singapore Trade to GDP Ratio 3.4 Ratio 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Structure of the Economy By Sector Business Services (14%) Financial Services (12%) Transport & Comm. (11%) Commerce (18%) Others (17%) Manufacturing (22%) Construction (6%) Key Services Sectors = 67% Manufacturing Output Petroleum Products (4%) Machinery & Equipment (6%) Transport Equipment (9%) Electronics (38%) Fabricated Metal Products (5%) Others (21%) Chemicals (17%) Pharmaceutical industry’s linkages with rest of the economy limited… Exports (99%) Imports Pharmaceutical Industry Domestic (1%) Accounts for only 8% of total manufacturing output Employment generation limited: 0.6% of total manufacturing employment …unlike the electronics industry Exports (72%) Imports Supporting Industries Electronics Industry Domestic (28%) Accounts for 42% of total manufacturing output Generates higher employment: Electronics- 30% of total manufacturing employment Supporting- 37% of total manufacturing employment Structure of the Economy: Exports by Product Electronics (61%) Oil (18%) Non-oil (82%) Chemicals (13%) Others (16%) Misc Manufactured Articles (10%) Structure of the Economy: Exports by Country ASEAN-3 18% NIE-3 15% Others 15% Japan 10% North America 23% EU 18% Summary I Ultra Open Economy Manufacturing & Services as Twin Pillars Dominance of Electronics in Manufacturing / Exports Chemicals Rising But Less Linkages & Multiplier’s Effects Business Cycles in Singapore GDP Growth from 1980 15 YOY % Growth 80 Singapore’s Real GDP (LHS) 60 10 40 5 20 0 0 -5 Composite Foreign GDP (LHS) -10 -15 1980 Global Chip Sales (RHS) -20 -40 -60 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 YOY % Growth 20 Dynamics of the 2001 Recession World Demand-Domestic Supply Curve DS1 Price Level (Domestic currency) WD1 WD2 Q2 Q1 Real GDP The Singapore economy contracted by -2.0% in 2001 20 YOY % Growth 15 10 5 Overall 0 -5 -10 -15 ServicesProducing Industries GoodsProducing Industries -20 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Exports & industrial output fell sharply Domestic Exports Fall in External Demand Drop in NODX YOY % Growth 40 NODX 20 0 Electronics -20 -40 97 Cutback in Production 98 99 00 01 02Q1 Industrial Production YOY % Growth 40 Overall 20 0 Electronics -20 -40 97 98 99 00 01 02Q1 Services exports were also affected Re-Exports Fall in External Demand YOY % Growth 60 Drop in NODX ASEAN-3 40 Total 20 0 -20 NIE-3 -40 97 Cutback in Production 99 00 01 02 Q1 Services Exports 75 YOY % Growth Spillover to Services Sectors 98 Overall 50 Transport 25 Travel 0 -25 -50 97 98 99 00 01 02 Q1 Adjustments in the Labour Market W/P L L D L 1 D C S A B N Flexible wage response W Average Nominal Earnings, SA - CPF - non CPF 106 85Q1=100 Index 104 102 97Q4=100 100 98 00Q4=100 96 94 1 2 3 No. of quarters 4 5 Comparisons Across Downturns Summary of Key Indicators : Peak-to-Trough Adjustments Real GDP -10 -7.7 (3Q) -8 -3.1 (3Q) -5.3 (3Q) -28.4 (4Q) -7.7 (4Q) -12.9 (2Q) Exports -40 -6 -4 -20 0 CPI 0 2 GDP Downturn in 2001 1998 1985 -1 -2 -3 -0.9 (3Q) -1.6 (4Q) -2.0 (4Q) 2.1 (4Q) 3 2.7 (5Q) 3.6 (7Q) 4 Unemployment Rate Summary II More volatile environment – 3 shocks in 5 years Cause shifts in AD curve Dynamics of Recession : Exports Output Services Labour Market Prices 2001: Deepest Recession 2001 : Wages adjusted quickly Characteristics of the Initial Upturn US economy 30 SAAR % Growth 20 Personal Consumption 10 0 Non-Residential Fixed Investment -10 GDP -20 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Q1 Turnaround in domestic economic activity 20 GDP (SAAR) 15 Per Cent 10 5 0 GDP (YOY) -5 -10 -15 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Manufacturing driving the uptick in growth Surge in manufacturing SAAR in Q4 2001 continued into Q1 2002… SAAR % Growth 40 Manufacturing Value-Added 20 0 -20 -40 2000 SAAR % Growth 2001 Q3 2002 Non-oil, Nonelectronics 60 …along with positive NODX growth in the last two quarters... Q3 40 20 NODX 0 -20 Electronics -40 -60 2000 Q3 2001 Q3 2002 Hub-related services doing well. • Singapore provides hub services 50 Real Non-oil Re-exports 40 SAAR % Growth • Re-exports supported by regional trade 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 Air Transhipment Cargo 2000 Q3 2001 Q3 2002 Divergent Paths? • Chemicals surge more recently • Chemicals has less spillovers Per Cent • Electronicsled initially 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Electronics (SAAR) 2000 Q3 Non-electronics (SAAR) 2001 Q3 Total (SAAR) 2002 AprMay Support Provided by Policy World Demand-Domestic Supply Curve DS1 Price Level (Domestic currency) WD1 WD3 WD2 Q2 Q3 Q1 S$175 US$1.75/S$ S$170 US$1.70/S$ Real GDP Macroeconomic Policy Mix Easier Monetary Conditions Expansionary Fiscal Policy off-budget packages multiplier effect 1.3% point boost to economy Outlook for Growth Manufacturing sector expected to turn in steady growth Moderate rebound for the services sector Financial services sector to remain weak Construction sector expected to contract further GDP Growth to come in at the upper half of the 2-4% forecast range Summary III Led by initial turnaround in the US Led by electronics & trade-related services Conducive Macro-Policy Mix Risks to Growth Equity Markets Real Economy Consumption (Wealth Effect) Investment (Profit Cycle) IT Spending Slump - Postponement of replacement demand Conventions used in data presentation V.A. (real terms) Xt YOY % X t - X t-12 * 100 X t-12 QOQ % X t - X t-1 * 100 X t-1 SA QOQ SAAR (( X t ^4 ) - 1) * 100 SA X t-1 A % deviation from baseline B Xt-X B Xt t * 100 B Baseline Values : X t A Alternative Values : X t