Designing and Building a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System: A Tool for Public Sector Management A Workshop for Government Officials and Their Development Partners ©2000 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street N.W. Washington, DC 20433 1 All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing October 2000 Introduction to the Workshop 2 Designing and Building a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System A Tool for Public Sector Management Table of Contents 1 Introduction to Workshop 2 Introduction to Monitoring and Evaluation 3 Step 1 – Conducting a “Readiness Assessment” 4 Step 2 – Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 5 Step 3 – Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes 3 Designing and Building Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System (Cont.) Table of Contents 6 Step 4 – Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 7 Step 5 – Planning for Improvement— Setting Results Targets 8 Step 6 – Monitoring for Results 9 Step 7 – The Role of Evaluations 10 Step 8 – Reporting Your Findings 11 Step 9 – Using Your Findings 12 Step 10 – Sustaining the Monitoring and Evaluation System within Your Organization 4 Goals for This Workshop 5 • To prepare you to plan, design, and implement a results-based monitoring and evaluation system within your organization • To demonstrate how an M&E system is a valuable tool to support good public management Workshop Overview 6 • This workshop focuses on ten steps that describe how results-based monitoring and evaluation systems are designed and built • These steps begin with conducting a “Readiness Assessment” and on through designing and managing your monitoring and evaluation system • We will be discussing these steps, the tasks needed to complete them, and the tools available to help along the way Ten Steps to Designing, Building and Sustaining a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 7 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 3 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring for Results 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization Introduction to Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation 8 The Power of Measuring Results • • • • • • 9 If you do not measure results, you can not tell success from failure If you can not see success, you can not reward it If you can not reward success, you are probably rewarding failure If you can not see success, you can not learn from it If you can not recognize failure, you can not correct it If you can demonstrate results, you can win public support Adapted from Osborne & Gaebler, 1992 Introduction to Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation What Are We Talking About? • Results-based monitoring and evaluation measures how well governments are performing • Results-based monitoring and evaluation is a management tool! • Results-based monitoring and evaluation emphasizes assessing how outcomes are being achieved over time 10 Who Are Stakeholders That Care About Government Performance? • • • Government officials/Parliament Program managers and staff Civil society (Citizens, NGOs, Media, Private Sector etc.) • Donors 11 Remember • Monitoring and evaluation are two separate, but interrelated strategies to collect data and report the findings on how well (or not) the public sector is performing • During this workshop, we will be discussing: – Monitoring as a tool – Evaluation as a tool – How the two interrelate to support good public management – The ten steps to build a results-based monitoring and evaluation system to measure government performance 12 Reasons to Do Results-Based M&E 13 • Provides crucial information about public sector performance • Provides a view over time on the status of a project, program, or policy • Promotes credibility and public confidence by reporting on the results of programs • • Helps formulate and justify budget requests Identifies potentially promising programs or practices Reasons to Do Results-Based M&E (cont.) • Focuses attention on achieving outcomes important to the organization and its stakeholders • Provides timely, frequent information to staff • Helps establish key goals and objectives • Permits managers to identify and take action to correct weaknesses • 14 Supports a development agenda that is shifting towards greater accountability for aid lending Important… • It takes leadership commitment to achieve a better-performing organization • Plus redeployment of resources to build monitoring and evaluation systems • Plus individuals committed to improve public sector performance So…it comes down to a combination of institutional capacity and political will. 15 Definition Results-Based Monitoring (what we will call “monitoring”) is a continuous process of collecting and analyzing information to compare how well a project, program or policy is performing against expected results 16 Major Activities Where Results Monitoring Is Needed • Setting goals and objectives • Reporting to Parliament and other stakeholders 17 • Managing projects, programs and policies • • Reporting to donors Allocating resources A New Emphasis on Both Implementation and Results-Based Monitoring • Traditional monitoring focuses on implementation monitoring – This involves tracking inputs ($$, resources, strategies), activities (what actually took place) and outputs (the products or services produced) – This approach focuses on monitoring how well a project, program or policy is being implemented – Often used to assess compliance with workplans and budget 18 A New Emphasis on Both Implementation and Results-Based Monitoring 19 • Results-based monitoring involves the regular collection of information on how effectively government (or any organization) is performing • Results-based monitoring demonstrates whether a project, program, or policy is achieving its stated goals Implementation Results Results-Based Monitoring 20 • Long-term, widespread improvement in society Outcomes • Intermediate effects of outputs on clients Outputs • Products and services produced • Tasks personnel undertake to transform inputs to outputs • Financial, human, and material resources Goal (Impacts) Activities Inputs Binnendijk, 2000 Results-Based Monitoring: Oral Re-hydration Therapy Goal (Impacts) • Child mortality and morbidity reduced • Improved use of ORT in management of childhood diarrhea • Increased maternal knowledge of and access to ORT services • Media campaigns to educate mothers, health personnel trained in ORT, etc. • Funds, ORT supplies, trainers, etc. Outcomes Outputs Activities 21 Inputs Binnendijk, 2000 Results-Based Monitoring: Adult Literacy Goal (Impacts) increase access to higher skill jobs Outcomes • Increased literacy skill; more employment opportunities Outputs • Number of adults completing literacy courses Activities 22 • Higher income levels; Inputs • Literacy training courses • Facilities, trainers, materials Exercise: Identify the Sequence of Inputs, Activities, Outputs and Outcomes • Goal: Ensure Healthier Children in Rural Communities –Information is made available for parents about the importance of sterilizing water before making formula –Fewer children are going to hospital to be treated for diarrhea diseases –Increased numbers of Babies drink formula that has been made from sterilized water –Children morbidity rates decrease in local community –New funds available to introduce information campaign on sterilizing water in making baby formula –Knowledge among parents grows about importance of boiling water before making infant formula 23 Exercise: Identify the Sequence of Inputs, Activities, Outputs and Outcomes • Goal: Create economically viable women-owned microenterprises – Government makes available funds for micro-enterprise loans – Government approves 61 applications from program graduates – 90% of successful applicants begin operating new businesses after government approves application – 15 qualified course trainers available – 72 women complete training – Income of graduates increases 25% in first year after course completion – 100 women attend training in micro-enterprise business management 24 Some Examples of Results Monitoring 25 Infant Health Girls Education Policy Monitoring Decreasing Infant Mortality Rates Increasing girls education attainment Program Monitoring Clinic-based pre-natal care is being used by pregnant women # of girls in secondary schools completing math and science courses Project Monitoring Information on good prenatal care provided in 6 targeted villages # of girls in four urban neighborhoods completing primary education Definition Results-Based Evaluation An assessment of a planned, ongoing, or completed intervention to determine its relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, impact and sustainability. The intent is to incorporate lessons learned into the decision-making process. 26 Evaluation Addresses 27 “Why” Questions – What caused the changes we are monitoring “How” Questions – What was the sequence or processes that led to successful (or not) outcomes “Compliance/ Accountability Questions” – Did the promised activities actually take place and as they were planned? Process/ Implementation Questions Was the implementation process followed as anticipated, and with what consequences Designing Good Evaluations • • • 28 Getting the questions right is critical Answering the questions is critical Supporting public sector decision-making with credible and useful information is critical Designing Good Evaluations “Better to have an approximate answer to the right question, than an exact answer to the wrong question.” Paraphrased from statistician John W. Tukey 29 Designing Good Evaluations “Better to be approximately correct than precisely wrong.” Paraphrased from Bertrand Russell 30 Some Examples of Evaluation Privatizing Water Systems 31 Resettlement Policy Evaluations Comparing model approaches to privatizing public water supplies Comparing strategies used for resettlement of rural villages to new areas Program Evaluations Assessing fiscal management of government systems Assessing the degree to which resettled village farmers maintain previous livelihood Project Evaluations Assessing the improvement in water fee collection rates in 2 provinces Assessing the farming practices of resettled farmers in one province Complementary Roles of Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring 32 Clarifies program objectives Links activities and their resources to objectives Translates objectives into performance indicators and set targets Routinely collects data on these indicators, compares actual results with targets Reports progress to managers and alerts them to problems Evaluation Analyzes why intended results were or were not achieved Assesses specific causal contributions of activities to results Examines implementation process Explores unintended results Provides lessons, highlights significant accomplishment or program potential, and offers recommendations for improvement Summary • Results-based monitoring and evaluation are generally viewed as distinct but complementary functions • Each provides a different type of performance information • Both are needed to be able to better manage policy, program, and project implementation 33 Summary 34 • Implementing results-based monitoring and evaluation systems can strengthen public sector management • Implementing results-based monitoring and evaluation systems requires commitment by leadership and staff alike • We are discussing a political process with technical dimensions – not the reverse Ten Steps to Designing, Building and Sustaining a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 35 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 3 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring for Results 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization Step 1 Conducting a “Readiness Assessment” 36 Step One: Conducting a Readiness Assessment Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 1 Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 37 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 3 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring for Results 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization What is a Readiness Assessment? An analytical framework to assess a country’s ability to monitor and evaluate its development goals : 38 Why Do a Readiness Assessment? 1. To understand what incentives (or lack thereof) exist to effectively monitor and evaluate development goals? 39 2. To understand the roles and responsibilities of those organizations and individuals involved in monitoring and evaluating government policies, programs, and projects? E.g. – – – – Supreme Audit Office 3. To identify issues related to the capacity ( or lack of) to monitor and evaluate government programs Ministry of Finance Parliament Ministry of Planning Incentives Help Drive The Need For A Results System • First examine whether incentives exist in any of these four areas to begin designing and building an M&E system? – Political (citizen demand) – Institutional (legislative/legal framework) – Personal ( desire to improve government= champions) – Economic ( donor requirement) 40 Champions Can Help Drive A Results System • Who are the champion(s) and what is motivating them? – Government (social reforms) – Parliament (effective expenditures) – Civil society (holding government accountable) – Donors (PRSP) – Others – Note: who will not benefit? 41 Roles and Responsibilities • Assess the roles and responsibilities and existing structures to monitor and evaluate development goals - What is the role of central and line ministries? - What is the role of Parliament? - What is the role of the Supreme Audit Agency? 42 What is the role of civil society? What is the role of statistical groups/agencies? Roles and Responsibilities • Who in the country produces data? – National Government: • Central ministries (MOF, MOP) • Line ministries • Specialized units/offices (National Audit Office) • Census Bureau • National Statistics Office 43 Role and Responsibilities (Cont.) • Who in the country produces data? – Sub-national/regional government: • Provincial central ministries • Provincial line ministries • Other? – Local government – NGO’s – Donors – Others 44 Roles and Responsibilities (Cont.) • Where in the government are data used? – Preparing the budget – Resource allocation – Program policy making – Parliament/legislation & accountability – Planning – Fiscal management – Evaluation and oversight 45 Capacity • Assess current capacity to monitor and evaluate: – Technical skills – Managerial skills – Existing data systems and their quality – Technology available – Fiscal resources available – Institutional experience 46 Barriers • Do any of these immediate barriers now exist to getting started in building an M&E system? – Lack of fiscal resources – Lack of political will – Lack of champion – Lack of expertise & knowledge – Lack of strategy – Lack of prior experience 47 Key Elements of Success • Assess the Country’s Capacity Against the Following: – Does a clear mandate exist for M&E? • PRSP?, Law? Civil Society? Other? – Is there the presence of strong leadership at the most senior level of the government? – Are resource and policy decisions linked to the budget? – How reliable is information that may be used for policy and management decision making? – How involved is civil society as a partner with government, or voice with government? – Are there pockets of innovation that can serve as beginning practices or pilot programs? 48 Step 2 Choosing Outcomes to Monitor & Evaluate 49 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 22 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 50 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes 3 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring for Results 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization Why an Emphasis on Outcomes? • Makes explicit the intended objectives of government action (“Know where you are going before you get moving”) • • 51 Outcomes are what produce benefits They tell you when you have been successful or not Why Is It Important to Choose a Set of Key Goals or Outcomes? “If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there.” Paraphrased from Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland 52 Issues to Consider in Choosing Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate • Are there stated national/sectoral goals? • Have political promises been made that specify improved performance of the government? • Do citizen polling data indicate specific concerns? • Is authorizing legislation present? • Other? (Millennium Development Goals) • Is aid lending linked with specific goals? 53 Note: When Choosing Outcomes, Remember – “Do Not Go It Alone!” • 54 Develop a participative approach that includes the views and ideas of key stakeholder groups Choosing Outcomes—who Needs to be at the Table? Who – Government Civil Society Donors Why – To build consensus for the process 55 Why Building Consensus Is Important “The new realities of governance, globalization, aid lending, and citizen expectations require an approach that is consultative, cooperative and committed to consensus building.” 56 Developing Outcome Statements Reformulate the concerns identified by stakeholders into positive, desirable outcomes From To Rural Crops are spoiling before getting to the market Improve Farmers Access to Markets Children are dropping out of School Create Incentives For Families To Keep Kids In School No Longer safe to go out after dark 57 Improve crime prevention programs Outcomes Statements Need Disaggregation Outcome: Increase the percentage of employed people In order to know when we will be successful in achieving this outcome, we need to disaggregate the outcome to answer the following: – For whom? – Where? – How much? – By when? 58 Outcome Statements are Derived from identified problems or issues Policy Area: Education From 59 To School buildings are not maintained and are made from poor materials Improve school structures to meet standards of market economy. Many Children of rural families are unable to travel to distances to school Rural children gain equal access to educational services. Schools are not teaching our youth the content they need for the market economy. Improved curricula meets market-based economy standards. The poor and vulnerable are falling behind and not getting a decent education. Children most in need are receiving educational assistance Outcome Statements Should Capture Only One Objective Why? Consider this Outcome Statement: - Students in rural areas improve learning and gain better quality of life. What are the measurement issues?? 60 Developing Outcomes for One Policy Area: Example: Education Outcomes 1. Nation’s children have Improved access to preschool programs 2. Primary school learning outcomes for children are improved. 176 61 Indicators Baselines Targets In Summary: Why an Emphasis on Outcomes? • Makes explicit the intended objectives of government action (“Know where you are going before you get moving”) • Outcomes are the results governments hope to achieve • Clear setting of outcomes is key to results-based M&E system • 62 Note: Budget to outputs, manage to outcomes! Outcomes Summary Continued Outcomes are usually not directly measured—only reported on Outcomes must be translated to a set of key indicators 63 Step 3 Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes 64 Selecting Key Performance Indicators to Monitor Outcomes Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 65 33 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring for Results 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization Selecting Key Performance Indicators to Monitor Outcomes • Outcome indictors are not the same as outcomes • Each outcome needs to be translated into one or more indicators – An outcome indicator identifies a specific numerical measurement that tracks progress (or not) toward achieving an outcome 66 Urban Institute 1999 An Outcome Indicator Answers the question: “How will we know success when we see it?” 67 Selecting Outcome Indicators The “CREAM” of Good Performance A good performance indicator must be: 68 Clear (Precise and unambiguous) Relevant (Appropriate to subject at hand) Economic (Available at reasonable cost) Adequate (Must provide a sufficient basis to assess performance) Monitorable (Must be amenable to independent validation) Salvatore-Schiavo-Campo 2000 When Selecting Your Project, Program, or Policy Indicators • Select several for any one outcome • Make sure the interest of multiple stakeholders are considered • Know that over time, it is ok (and expected) to add new ones and drop old ones • Have at least three points of measurement before you consider changing your indicator 69 How Many Indicators Are Enough? The minimum number that answers the question: “Has the outcome been achieved?” 70 Why Use Proxy Indicators? • Only use indirect measures (proxies) when data for direct indicators are not available or feasible to collect at regular intervals • Example… – 71 Number of new tin roofs or televisions as a proxy measure of increased household income Outcome: Increased Access of Farmers to Markets An Example Indicators - Outcome or not? • • • • • • 72 % change in annual revenue of farmers % change in amount of spoiled crops % change in crop pricing due to competition % change in agricultural employment % change in rural to urban migration % change in types of crops being cultivated Outcome: Reduction in Childhood Morbidity Indicators – Outcome or not? An Example • % in missed school days due to illness • • • • • • 73 % reduction in hospital admission due to illness More medical doctors hired % change in prevalence of communicable diseases Number of children immunized % working days missed by parents % change in childhood gastrointestinal diseases Developing A Set of Outcomes Indicators for a Policy Area: Example: Education Outcomes 1. 2. 74 Nation’s children have improved access to pre-school programs Primary school learning outcomes for children are improved Indicators 1. % of eligible urban children enrolled in pre-school education 2. % of eligible rural children enrolled in pre-school education 1. % of Grade 6 students scoring 70% or better on standardized math and science tests Baselines Targets Checklist for Assessing Proposed Indicators Outcome to be measured: ______________________________ Indicator selected: ____________________________________ Is the Indicator… 1 As direct as possible a reflection of the outcome itself? 2 Sufficiently precise to ensure objective measurement? 3 Calling for the most practical, cost-effective collection of data 4 Sensitive to change in the outcome, but relatively unaffected by other changes? 5 Disaggregated as needed when reporting on the outcome? 75 United Way of America Using Pre-Designed Indicators * A number of development agencies have created indicators to track development goals, including • Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) • UNDP – Sustainable Human Development • World Bank – Rural Development Handbook • IMF – Macroeconomic indicators 76 * A pre-defined list of indicators are those indicators established independent of the context of any individual country or organization Using Pre-Designed Indicators: Pros and Cons Pros – • Can be aggregated across similar types of projects/programs/policies • Reduces costs of building multiple unique measurement systems • Creates greater harmonization of donor requirements Cons – • Often does not address country specific goals • Often viewed as imposed—coming from the top down • Does not promote key stakeholder participation and ownership • Multiple competing indicators 77 In Summary: Developing Indicators 78 • You will need to develop your own indicators to meet your own needs. • Developing good indicators often takes more than one try! • Arriving at the final indicators you will use will take time! • Pilot, Pilot, Pilot! Exercise: Select Key Performance Indicators for the Following Outcomes Outcome #1 Improved delivery of health care to citizens living in rural areas Outcome #2 Improve quality of agriculture export products Outcome #3 Safe urban communities 79 Step 4 Baseline Data on Indicators – Where Are We Today 80 Baseline Data on Indicators – Where Are We Today Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 81 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 3 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring for Results 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization “If you do not know where you are, you will have difficulty determining where you need to go.” Harry Hatry Urban Institute, 1999 82 Establishing Baseline Data on Indicators A performance baseline is… • Information (quantitative or qualitative) that provides data at the beginning of, or just prior to, the monitoring period. The baseline is used to: – Learn about recent levels and patterns of performance on the indicator; and to – 83 Gauge subsequent policy, program, or project performance The challenge now is to think about how to obtain baseline information for results indicators selected for each outcome 84 Identify Data Sources for Your Indicators 85 • Sources are who or what provide data – not the method of collecting data • What types of data sources can you think of for performance indicators in Highway Transportation Safety? Building Baseline Information Indicator 1 2 3 84 84 84 86 Who Data will Frequency Difficulty Data Collection collect of Cost of to Source Method data Collection collection collect Who will analyze & report data Data Sources May Be Primary or Secondary • PRIMARY data are collected directly by your organization, for example, through surveys, direct observation, and interviews. • SECONDARY data have been collected by someone else, initially for a purpose other than yours. Examples include survey data collected by another agency, a Demographic Health Survey, or data from a financial market. – 87 Secondary data often can save you money in acquiring data you need, but be careful! Sources of Data • Written records (paper and electronic) • Individuals involved with the program • General public • Trained observers • Mechanical measurements and tests 88 Design Data Collection Methods 1. Decide how to obtain the data you need from each source 2. Prepare data collection instruments 3. Develop procedures for use of the data collection instruments 89 Data Collection Methods Panel Surveys Key informant interviews Conversation with concerned individuals Community Interviews Field visits Focus Group Interviews Participant Observation Direct observation Reviews of official records (MIS and admin data) Informal/Less Structured Methods 90 One-Time Survey Census Field experiments Questionnaires More Structured/Formal Methods Practicality • Are the data associated with the indicator practical? • Ask whether… – Quality data are currently available – The data can be procured on a regular and timely basis – 91 Primary data collection, when necessary, is feasible and cost-effective Comparison of Major Data Collection Methods Date Collection Method 92 Characteristic Review of Program Records SelfAdministered Questionnaire Interview Rating by Trained Observer Cost Low Moderate Moderate to High Depends on Availability of LowCost Observers Amount of Training Required for Data Collectors Some None to Some Moderate to High Moderate to High Completion Time Depends on Amount of Data Needed Moderate Moderate Short to Moderate Response Rate High, if Records Contain Needed Data Depends on How Distributed Generally Moderate to Good High United Way of America Developing Baseline Data for One Policy Area: Example: Education Outcomes 1. 2. 93 Nation’s children have Improved access to pre-school programs Primary school learning outcomes for children are improved Indicators Baselines 1. % of eligible urban children enrolled in pre-school education 1. 75% urban children ages 3-5 in 1999 2. % of eligible rural children enrolled in pre-school education 2. 40% rural children ages 3-5 in 2000 1. % of Grade 6 students scoring 70% or better on standardized math and science tests 1. 75% in 2002 scored 70% or better in math. 61% in 2002 scored 70% or better in science. Targets In Summary: Establishing Baseline Data on Indicators A baseline is… • 94 Information (quantitative or qualitative) that provides data at the beginning of, or just prior to, the monitoring period. The baseline is used to: – Learn about recent levels and patterns of performance on the indicator; and to – Gauge subsequent policy, program, or project performance Step 5 Planning for Improvement – Selecting Results Targets 95 Planning for Improvement – Selecting Results Targets Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 96 3 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 6 Monitoring for Results The Role of Evaluations 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization Definition Targets are the quantifiable levels of the indicators that a country or organization wants to achieve at a given point in time— For Example, Agricultural exports will increase by 20% in the next three years over the baseline 97 Identifying Expected or Desired Level of Project or Program or Policy Results Requires Selecting Performance Targets Baseline Indicator Level + Desired Level of Improvement Assumes a finite and expected level of inputs, activities, and outputs 98 = Target Performance Desired level of performance to be reached within a specific time Examples of Targets Related to Development 1. Goal: Economic Well-Being Outcome target: Reduce by 20% the proportion of people living in extreme poverty by 2008 against the baseline 2. Goal: Social Development Outcome target: Improve by 30% the Primary Education enrollment rates in Kyrgyz Republic by 2008 against the baseline Outcome target: Reduce by 20% the incidence of hepatitis rates for infants by 2006 against the baseline. 3. Goal: Environmental Sustainability Outcome target: Implement a national strategy for sustainable forest management by 2005 99 Factors to Consider When Selecting Indicator Targets • Clear understanding of baseline starting point (e.g. average of last 3 years, last year, average trend, etc.) • Funding and level of personnel resources expected throughout the target period • Amount of outside resources expected to supplement the program’s resources • • 100 Political concerns Institutional capacity Additional Considerations in Setting Indicator Targets • Only one target is desirable for each indicator • If the indicator is new (not previously used) be careful on setting firm targets (use a range) 101 • Most targets are set yearly, but some could be set quarterly; others set for longer periods (not more than 5 years) • It takes time to observe the effects of improvements; therefore, be realistic when setting targets Adapted from the Urban Institute, 1999 Additional Considerations When Setting Indicator Targets • A target does not have to be one single numerical value; it can be a range • Consider previous performance • Take your baseline seriously • Targets should be feasible, given all the resource (input) considerations 102 Adapted from the Urban Institute, 1999 “Games Sometimes Played When Setting Targets” 103 • Set targets so modest (easy) that they will surely be met • Move the target (as needed) to fit performance • Pick targets that are not politically sensitive 104 Targets Support Public Accountability • “Whether they concern the time someone waits for treatment for cancer or the number of police officers on the beat, targets can help ensure that attention is focused and energy concentrated in the right directions. Targets challenge low expectations and give the public a clear benchmark against which they can measure progress.” David Miliband Financial Times (October 9, 2003) 105 Developing Targets for One Policy Area: Education Outcomes 1. 2. 106 Nation’s children have improved access to preschool programs Primary school learning outcomes for children are improved Indicators Baselines Targets 1 . % of eligible urban children enrolled in pre-school education 1. 75% urban children ages 3-5 in 1999 1. 85% urban children ages 3-5 by 2006 2 . % of eligible rural children enrolled in pre-school education 2. 40% rural children ages 3-5 in 2000 2. 60% rural children ages 3-5 by 2006 1 . % of Grade 6 students scoring 70% or better on standardized math and science tests 1. 75% in 2002 scored 70% or better in math. 1. 80% scoring 70% or better in math by 2006. 61% in 2002 scored 70% or better in science 67% scoring 70% or better in science by 2006. Now We Have A Results Framework Note: This completed matrix becomes your results framework! – 107 It defines your outcomes and gives you a plan for how you will know if you have been successful (or not) in achieving these outcomes In Summary… Baseline Indicator Level + Desired Level of Improvement Assumes a finite and expected level of inputs, activities, and outputs 108 = Target Performance Desired level of performance to be reached within a specific time Step 6 Monitoring For Results 109 Building a Monitoring System Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 110 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 3 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring for Results 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization Monitoring for Results 111 • A results-based monitoring system tracks both implementation (inputs, activities, outputs) and results (outcomes and goals) • Implementation monitoring is supported through the use of management tools – budget, staffing plans, and activity planning Monitoring for Results (cont.) 112 • Implementation monitoring tracks the means and strategies used by the organization • Means and strategies are found in annual and multiyear workplans • Do not forget: Results framework is not the same as a work plan • Do not forget: Budget to outputs, manage to outcomes Developing A Results Plan 113 • Once a set of outcomes are identified, it is time to develop a plan to assess how the organization will begin to achieve these outcomes • In the traditional approach to developing a plan, the first thing a manager usually did was to identify activities and assign responsibilities • But the shortcoming in this approach is that completing all the activities does not mean the same as reaching the outcome goal Results Key Types of Monitoring Impact Results Monitoring Outcome Implementation Output 114 Activity Input Implementation Monitoring (Means and Strategies) Translating Outcomes to Action 115 • Note: Activities are crucial! They are the actions you take to manage and implement your programs, use your resources, and deliver the services of government • But the sum of these activities may or may not mean you have achieved your outcomes • Question is: How will you know when you have been successful? Implementation Monitoring Links to Results Monitoring Outcome 116 Target 1 Target 2 Target 3 Means and Strategies (Multi-Year and Annual Work Plans) Means and Strategies (Multi-Year and Annual Work Plans) Means and Strategies (Multi-Year and Annual Work Plans) Linking Implementation Monitoring to Results Monitoring Goal Outcome Target 117 Means and Strategies Children’s mortality reduced Children’s morbidity reduced Reduce incidence of childhood gastrointestinal disease by 20% over 3 years • Improve cholera prevention programs • provision of vitamin A supplements • use of oral re-hydration therapy Achieving Results Through Partnership Goal Outcome Outcome Outcome Means & Strategy Means & Strategy Means & Strategy Partner 2 Partner 2 Partner 2 Target 1 Partner 1 118 Target 2 Partner 3 Partner 1 Partner 3 Partner 1 Partner 3 Building a Monitoring System: A Group Exercise Take this chart and complete the information requirements for Year 1 and Year 2: Impact Increase educational opportunities for children Outcome Increase availability of pre-school education for poor children Target Increase by 25% the number of poor children ages 2-5 attending pre-school by 2005 Year 1 119 Means and Strategies Year 2 Key Principles in Building a Monitoring System 1. There are results information needs at the project, program, and policy levels 2. Results information needs to move both horizontally and vertically in the organization 3. Demand for results information at each level needs to be identified 120 Key Principles in Building a Monitoring System (cont.) 4. Responsibility at each level needs to be clear for: – What data are collected (source) – When data are collected (frequency) – How data are collected (methodology) – Who collects the data – Who analyzes the data – For whom the data are collected – Who reports the data 121 Every Monitoring System Needs: Ownership Management Maintenance Credibility 122 Managing for Results Calls for Analysis of Performance Data… ID 27902 Published in the New Yorker 5/16/1994 120 123 A bird, in a suit, notices charts which compare ‘hour of rising’ with ‘worm acquisition.’ Refers to the saying, “The early bird catches the worm.” Performance Monitoring System Framework • For each outcome/goal you need: Indicator 124 Baseline Target Data Collection Strategy Data Analysis Reporting Plan Monitoring System Strategy Should Include a Data Collection and Analysis Plan The plan should cover: • • • • • • • 125 Units of analysis Sampling procedures Data collection instruments to be used Frequency of data collection Expected methods of data analysis Who collects the data For whom the data are being collected Key Criteria for Collecting Quality Performance Data Reliability Validity 126 Timeliness The Data Quality Triangle Reliability The extent to which the data collection approach is stable and consistent across time and space 127 The Data Quality Triangle Validity Extent to which data clearly and directly measure the performance we intend to measure 128 The Data Quality Triangle Timeliness • Frequency (how often are data collected?) • Currency (how recently have data been collected?) • Relevance (data need to be available on a frequent enough basis to support management decisions) 129 Quality Assurance Challenges • What will be collected, and by what methods, are tempered by what is practical and realistic in the country and program context – How much existing data relevant to our project, program, or policy are already available? – How much of the available data are good enough to meet your organization’s needs? 130 Pretest Your Data Collection Instruments and Procedures • You will never really know how good your data collection approach is until you test it • Pretesting is learning how to improve your instruments or procedures, before your data collection is fully under way • Avoiding pretesting probably will result in mistakes. The mistake could cost your organization a lot of wasted time and money, and maybe its valued reputation with the public. 131 In Summary…. • For each outcome/goal you need: Indicator 132 Baseline Target Data Collection Strategy Data Analysis Reporting Plan Step 7 The Role of Evaluations 133 The Role of Evaluations Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 134 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 3 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring For Results 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization Definition Evaluation An assessment of planned, ongoing or completed intervention to determine its relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, impact and sustainability. The intent is to incorporate lessons learned into the decisionmaking process. 135 Uses of Evaluation • To make resource decisions • To re-think the causes of a problem • To identify issues around an emerging problem, i.e. children dropping out of school • Decision-making on best alternatives • Support of public sector reform / innovation • To help build consensus among stakeholders on how to respond to a problem 136 Evaluation Means Information on: Strategy • Whether we are doing the right things – Rationale/justification – Clear theory of change Operation • Whether we are doing things right – Effectiveness in achieving expected outcomes – Efficiency in optimizing resources – Client satisfaction Learning 137 • Whether there are better ways of doing it – Alternatives – Best practices – Lessons learned Characteristics of Quality Evaluations Impartiality Technical adequacy Feedback/ dissemination 138 Usefulness Stakeholder involvement Value for money Eight Types of Questions Answered by Evaluation • Descriptive: Describe the content of the information campaign in country X for HIV/ AIDS prevention • Normative/compliance: How many days during the year were national drinking water standards met? ( looks for how a project, program or policy met stated criteria) • Correlational: What is the relation between the literacy rate and number of trained teachers in locality? ( shows the link between two situations, or conditions, but does not specify causality 139 Eight Types of Questions Answered by Evaluation • Cause and Effect: Has the introduction of a new hybrid seed caused increased crop yield? (establishes a causal relation between two situations or conditions) • Program Logic: Is the sequence/strategy of planned activities likely to increase the number of years girls stay in school? (used to assess whether the design has correct causal sequence) • Implementation/process: Was a project, program or policy to improve the quality of water supplies in an urban area implemented as intended? (establishes if proposed activities are conducted) 140 Eight Types of Questions Answered by Evaluation • Performance: Are the planned outcomes and impacts from a policy being achieved? (establishes links between inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and impacts) • Appropriate use of policy tools : Has the government made use of the right policy tool in providing subsidies to indigenous villagers who need to be resettled due to the construction of a new dam? ( establishes whether government selected appropriate instrument to achieve its aims) 141 When Is It Time to Make Use of Evaluation? When regular results measurement suggests actual performance diverges sharply from planned performance Planned Actual 142 When Is it Time to Make Use of Evaluation? When you want to determine the roles of both design and implementation on project, program, or policy outcomes Strength Of Design Hi Lo Hi Strength of Implementation 1. 2. 3. 4. Lo 143 When Is it Time to Make Use of Evaluation? (cont.) When: • Resource and budget allocations are being made across projects, programs, or policies • A decision is being made whether to (or not) expand a pilot • There is a long period with no evidence of improvement in the problem situation • Similar projects, programs or policies are reporting divergent outcomes • There are conflicting political pressures on decision-making in ministries or parliament • Public outcry over a governance issue • To identify issues around an emerging problem, I.e. children dropping out of school 144 Six Types Of Evaluation Performance Logic Chain Process Implementation Impact Evaluation 145 Pre-Implementation Assessment Case Study Meta-Evaluation 1) Performance Logic– Chain Assessment 146 • Asks questions about the basic causal logic of the project, program, or policy (cause and effect assumptions) • Asks about the rationale for the sequence of activities of the project, program, or policy • Asks about the plausibility of achieving intended effects based on research and prior experience 2) Pre-Implementation Assessment Preliminary evaluation of a project, program, or policy’s implementation strategy to assure that three standards are met: • • • 147 Objectives are well defined Implementation plans are plausible Intended uses of resources are well defined and appropriate to achievement of objectives 3) Process Implementation Evaluation 148 • Provides detailed information on whether the program is operating as it ought ( are we doing things right?) • Provides detailed information on program functioning to those interested in replication or scaling up a pilot • Provides continuous feedback loops to assist managers 4) Case Study A case study is a method for learning about a complex situation and is based on a comprehensive understanding of that situation. 149 Six Basic Types of Case Study Illustrative Critical instance Program effects 150 Exploratory Program implementation Cumulative 5) Impact Evaluation • Provides information on how and why intended (and un-intended) project, program, or policy outcomes and impacts were achieved (or not) 151 6) Meta-Evaluation • Pulls together known studies on a topic to gain greater confidence in findings and generalizability • Addresses where there are credible supportable evaluation findings on a topic • 152 Compares different studies with disparate findings about a topic against a common set of criteria In Summary: Evaluation Means Information on Strategy Operation Learning 153 • Whether we are doing the right things – Rationale/justification – Clear theory of change • Whether we are doing things right – Effectiveness in achieving expected outcomes – Efficiency in optimizing resources – Client satisfaction • Whether there are better ways of doing it – Alternatives – Best practices – Lessons learned Reporting Your Findings Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 154 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 3 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring for Results 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization “If You Do Not Measure Results, You Can Not Tell Success From Failure” Analyzing and Reporting Data: 155 • Gives information on the status of projects, programs, and policies • • Provides clues to problems • Provides important information over time on trends and directions • Helps confirm or challenge theory of change Creates opportunities to consider improvements in the (projects, programs, or policy) implementation strategies Analyzing Your Results Data • Examine changes over time – Compare present to past data to look for trends and other changes 156 The more data points you have, the more certain you are of your trends ? Time Improving access to rural markets Access Access – Time Improving access to rural markets Reporting Your Results Data Report results data in comparison to earlier data and to your baseline (Remember—Comparisons over time are critical!) You can report your data by: 157 – Expenditure/income – Organizational units – Raw numbers – Geographical locations – Percentages – Demographics – Statistical tests – Client satisfaction scales (high, medium, low) Present Your Data in Clear and Understandable Form • Present most important data only • Use an appendix or a separate report to convey detailed data 158 • Use visual presentations (charts, graphs, maps) to highlight key points • Avoid “data dumps” When Reporting Your Finding Use Explanatory Notes Suggestions: • Combine qualitative information along with quantitative • When comparisons show unexpected trends or values, provide explanations, if known • Report internal explanatory notes – e.g. loss of program personnel or other resources • Report external explanatory notes, – e.g unexpected natural disaster, or political changes • Summarize important findings 159 The Urban Institute, 1999 What Happens If the Results News Is Bad? • A good results measurement system is intended to surface problems (early warning system) • Reports on performance should include explanations about poor outcomes and identify steps taken or planned to correct problems • Protect the messenger 160 Adapted from The Urban Institute, 1999 Outcomes Reporting Format Actual Outcomes Versus Targets Baseline Current Target Difference (%) (%) (%) (%) Rates of hepatitis (N=6000) 30 25 20 -5 Percentage of children with improved overall health status (N=9000) 20 20 24 -4 Percentage of children who show 4 out of 5 positive scores on physical exams (N=3500) 50 65 65 0 80 85 83 +2 Outcome Indicator Percentage of children with improved nutritional status (N = 14,000) Source: Made-up data, 2003 161 In Summary: Analyzing and Reporting Data: 162 • Gives information on the status of projects, programs, and policies • • Provides clues to problems • Provides important information over time on trends and directions Creates opportunities to consider improvements in the (projects, programs, or policy) implementation strategies Step 9 Using Your Findings 163 Using Your Findings Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 164 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 3 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 Using Your Findings The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring for Results 7 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization Using Your Findings 10 Uses of Results Findings 1 Responds to elected officials’ and the public’s demands for accountability 2 Helps formulate and justify budget requests 3 Helps in making operational resource allocation decisions 4 Triggers in-depth examinations of what performance problems exist and what corrections are needed 165 Using Your Findings (cont.) 10 Uses of Results Findings 5 Helps motivate personnel to continue making program improvements 6 Monitors the performance of contractors and grantees 7 Provides data for special, in-depth program evaluations 8 Helps provide services more efficiently 9 Supports strategic and other long-term planning efforts (by providing baseline information and later tracking progress) 10 Communicates better with the public to build public trust 166 Nine Strategies for Sharing Information • Empower the Media • Enact “Freedom of Information” legislation • Institute E-government • Add information on internal and external internet sites • Publish annual budget reports • Engage civil society and citizen groups • Strengthen parliamentary oversight • Strengthen the Office of the Auditor General • Share and compare results findings with development partners 167 Credible Information Strengthens Public Accountability “In the National Health Service it is not always clear that the board asks the right questions,” because “inadequate information reduces the clarity behind decision-making that is necessary to achieve effective accountability”. Nicole Timmins Financial Times (October 14, 2003) 168 Step 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization 169 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization Selecting Key Indicators to Monitor Outcomes Conducting a Readiness Assessment 1 2 Agreeing on Outcomes to Monitor and Evaluate 170 Planning for Improvement — Selecting Results Targets 3 4 Baseline Data on Indicators— Where Are We Today? 5 The Role of Evaluations 6 Monitoring for Results 7 Using Your Findings 8 Reporting Your Findings 9 10 Sustaining the M&E System Within Your Organization 6 Critical Components of Sustaining Monitoring & Evaluation Systems 1. Demand 2. Clear Roles and Responsibilities 3. Trustworthy and Credible Information 4. Accountability 5. Capacity 6. Incentives 171 Critical Component One: Demand 172 • Structured requirements for reporting on results e.g. European Union Accession or national legislation • The results from M&E system are sought and available for the government, civil society, and for donors • Officials want evidence on their own performance • Organizations seek better accountability Critical Component Two: Clear Roles and Responsibilities • • • 173 Establish formal organizational lines of authority (that are clear) for collecting, analyzing, and reporting of performance information Build a system that links the central planning and finance ministries to line/sector ministries (internal coordination) Issue clear guidance on who is responsible for which components of the M&E system and procedures Critical Component Two: Clear Roles and Responsibilities (cont.) • • 174 Build a system that goes beyond national government to other levels of government for data collection and analysis Build a system that has demand for results information at every level where information is collected and analyzed, i.e. there is no level in the system that is only a “pass through” of the information Critical Component Three: Trustworthy and Credible Information • The system has to be able to produce results information that brings both good and bad news • The producers of results information need protection from political reprisals • The information produced by the M&E system should be transparent and subject to independent verification • 175 The data collection and analysis procedures should be subject to review by national audit office and/or Parliament The Blame Game “Stop whimpering and spin the wheel of blame, Lipton!” Cartoon by Scott Arthur Masear, Harvard Business Review, November 2003. 176 Critical Component Four: Accountability 177 • Civil society organizations play a role by encouraging transparency of the information • The media, private sector, and the Parliament all have roles to ensure that the information is timely, accurate,and accessible • • Failure is not rewarded Problems are acknowledged and addressed Critical Component Five: Capacity 178 • Sound technical skills in data collection and analysis • Managerial skills in strategic goal setting and organizational development • Existing data collection and retrieval systems • Ongoing availability of financial resources • Institutional experience Critical Component Six: Incentives • Incentives need to be introduced to encourage use of performance information: • Success is acknowledged and rewarded • Problems are addressed • Messengers are not punished • Organizational learning is valued • Budget savings are shared • Others? 179 Last Reminders! • The demand for capacity building never ends! The only way an organization can coast is downhill… • Keep your champions on your side and help them! • Establish the understanding with the Ministry of Finance and the Parliament that an M&E system needs sustained resources. • Look for every opportunity to link results information to budget and resource allocation decisions. • Begin with pilot efforts to demonstrate effective resultsbased monitoring: Begin with an enclave strategy (e.g. islands of innovation) as opposed to a whole-ofgovernment approach. • Monitor both implementation progress and results achievements. • Complement performance monitoring with evaluations 180 to ensure better understanding of public sector results.