2012 Pacific GIS&RS Conference
FIJI
Disaster Risk Assessment Tools
and Applications
Better Information Smarter Investments
Main Outputs
Pacific disaster risk
assessment
– Probabilistic
assessment of major
perils
– Pacific Risk Information
System
– Risk based framework
to direct resources of
countries and
development partners
Pacific disaster risk
financing solutions
– Fiscal risk exposure
– Financial disaster risk
management
– Regional risk pooling
PARTNERS BASED IN US, JP, NZ, FJ
3
Satellite
imagery
Administrative
Boundaries
Population
Census
Agricultural
Census
Surface Geology
Topographic
maps
Surface soil
Bathymetry
PACIFIC RISK
INFORMATION
SYSTEM
Geodetic and
Fault Data
Infrastructure
References
Risk Assessment
Hazard
Event
Generation
Intensity
Calculation
Damage
Estimation
Vulnerability
Exposure
Information
Exposure
Social and economic
Loss
losses
Calculation
Risk – monetary
loss and casualties
Perils Modeled
Tropical
Cyclone
Earthquake
Wind
Flood from
Precipitation
Ground Shaking
Flood from
Storm Surge
Tsunami Wave
Hazard Maps: Applications for Planners
100 yr mean return period: wind speed,
ground acceleration with ~40% chances to be
exceeded in 50years
Severe damage to buildings,
infrastructure and crops with large
consequent economic damage
People
2010 projections based on national census
information and PopGIS
A number of countries have conducted or
preparing for a national census
Building Inventory
3.5m attributed buildings in the Pacific
Major Infrastructure
Kilometers
Vava'u
20° S
Ha'apai
175° W
21° S
Eua
8
Tongatapu
Kilometers
Nuku'alofa
Total Average Annual Loss
AAL / Asset
(million
USD)Value
- 0.5% 0.4 - 0.8%
00%
- 0.1
0.5 - 1%
0.5%
- 0.6%
- 1.5%
0.1
- 0.2
0.5 -&1%
1 Eua
Tongatapu
0.6%
- 0.7% 1 - 1.5
1.5% - 2%
0.2
- 0.3
0.7%
- 0.8% 1.5 - 2%
0.3
- 0.4
2.5 - 3%
0 2 4
Tongatapu
4
17° S
200
2
18° S
50 100
19° S
0
16° S
0
Kilometers
8
Ha'apai
0 2 4
Vava'u
8
Kilometers
174° W
Tonga
0 2 4
0 2 4
Eua
8
8
Kilometers
Kilometers
Country risk profiles -Solomon Islands
APPLICATIONS
Macroeconomic
Planning & Disaster
Risk Financing
Rapid Disaster
Impact Estimation
Urban Planning and
Infrastructure Design
PACIFIC RISK
INFORMATION
SYSTEM
Integration of Climate
Change projections
Professional and
Institutional
Capacity
Development
Pacific Disaster Risk Financing
and Insurance Program
• Objective
– Reduce financial vulnerability of PICs to disasters by improving their
financial response capacity while protecting their long term fiscal balance.
– Provide immediate liquidity in the aftermath of a disaster
• Provides coverage against tropical cyclones and/or earthquakes.
• Covers disruption to the provision of central government services from major
disasters
• The policy is NOT designed to cover the government against all disaster losses.
• Enhanced if it is part of an integrated disaster risk financing strategy including,
for example, domestic reserves.
Post-Disaster Real Time Loss Assessment
- Tropical Cyclones and Earthquakes
• CAT models do not typically
use any direct field
observation of damage,
loss, or disaster intensity
• The accuracy of the loss
estimates improves if field
observations are taken into
account
• Damage and loss
assessments
Air Worldwide - Confidential
Pre-disaster Loss Assessment
• Feasibility study to develop a
system that, in real time,
forecasts the impact of
tropical cyclones as they build
• AIR has extensive experience
in such systems in the Atlantic
Ocean in the North Pacific
Ocean for certain countries
• Such systems are feasible but
their application to the region
of the PICs needs to be studied
further
Air Worldwide - Confidential
How does CC affect TCs?
Climate projections
CSIRO
TC wind hazard
risk modelling
GA
Catastrophe loss
modelling
AIR - PCRAFI
Assess potential future tropical cyclone risk to critical assets in
Pacific island countries with climate change.
Outcome:
1. understand the changing nature of tropical cyclone risk to
infrastructure assets
2. consider the future implications in terms of loss and
damage
3. assess the effectiveness of current planning and design
standards against future needs
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Risk Resilience in Urban Development
Anticipated Outputs
1. Integrated climate and disaster risk screening tools for planning are
operational
2. Integrated tools for mainstreaming disaster and climate risks into
development planning are shared
3. Pacific DMC planners apply newly acquired climate and disaster risk
mainstreaming skills
Countries: Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Is, Tonga, Vanuatu
Timeframe: 2 years
Partners: SOPAC/ADB/WB/UNHABITAT/DCCEE
GEONODE DEVELOPMENT
Outcomes: Pacific Disaster Managers
• National capacities and ownership
• Communication, awareness and understanding of the
applications: Tools to support decision making
• Improve current models & expand to include other hazards
• Data maintenance
• Integrate the application of the Pacific Risk Information in
informing national DRM interventions
• Improve coordination between donors and development
partners
• Custodianship and data sharing