1. General Overview
Agenda 2
Protecting Citizens of South Sudan from the
scourge of conflict
The government of Sudan gave its blessing for an
independent South Sudan, as the people of south
Sudan voted for independence in a government led
referendum. Sudan, once the largest and one of the
most geographcialy diverse states in Africa, split into
two countries in July 2011. The South was where
mainly Christian and Animist people had for decades
been struggling against rule by the Arab Muslim
north. However, various outstanding secession issues
- especially the question of shared oil revenues and
the exact border demarcation - have continued to
create tensions between the two successor states.
Sudan has long been beset by conflict. Two rounds
of north-south civil war cost the lives of 1.5 million
people, and a continuing conflict in the western
region of Darfur has driven two million people from
their homes and killed more than 200,000. Sudan's
centuries of association with Egypt formally ended
in 1956, when joint British-Egyptian rule over the
country ended. Independence was rapidly
overshadowed by unresolved constitutional tensions
with the south, which flared up into full-scale civil
war that the coup-prone central government was illequipped to suppress. The military-led government
of President Jaafar Numeiri agreed to autonomy for
the south in 1972, but fighting broke out again in
1983. After two years of bargaining, the rebels
signed a comprehensive peace deal with the
government to end the civil war in January 2005.
The accord provided for a high degree of autonomy
for the south, and an option for it to secede. South
Sudan seceded in July 2011, following a vote.
However, the grievances of the northern states of
South Kordofan and Blue Nile remain unaddressed,
as provisions laid out for them in the 2005
Comprehensive Peace Agreement were never fully
implemented. In Darfur, in western Sudan, the
United Nations has accused pro-government Arab
militias of a campaign of ethnic cleansing against
non-Arab locals. The conflict has strained relations
between Sudan and Chad, to the west. Both countries
have accused each other of cross-border incursions.
There have been fears that the Darfur conflict could
lead to a regional war. The economic dividends of
eventual peace could be great. Sudan has large areas
of cultivatable land, as well as gold and cotton. Its oil
reserves are ripe for further exploitation.
2. Problem identification
A. Human rights issues:
On the basis of the Human Rights
Division’s documentation and
investigations, there are reasonable grounds
to believe that violations of international
human rights and humanitarian law have
been committed by both parties to the
conflict. These violations include
extrajudicial killings, enforced
disappearances, rape and other acts of
sexual violence, arbitrary arrests and
detention, targeted attacks against civilians
not taking part in hostilities, violence aimed
at spreading terror among the civilian
population, and attacks on hospitals as well
as personnel and objects involved in a
peacekeeping mission. In light of the
widespread and systematic nature of many
of the attacks, and information suggesting
coordination and planning, there are also
reasonable grounds to believe that the
crimes against humanity of murder, rape
and other acts of sexual violence, enforced
disappearance, and imprisonment have
occurred.
The consequences for the civilian
population have been devastating. There
have been attacks on hospitals, churches,
mosques, and United Nations bases. All
parties to the conflict have committed acts
of rape and other forms of sexual violence
against women of different ethnic groups.
Over one million South Sudanese have
been displaced by the conflict. Despite the
signing of a cessation of hostilities
agreement on 23 January, fighting
continues with little hope that civilians will
see any respite from the relentless violence.
B. Economic Issues:
Although South Sudan has vast and largely
untapped natural resources, beyond a few
oil enclaves it remains relatively
undeveloped, characterized by subsistence
economy. South Sudan is the most oildependent country in the world, with oil
accounting for almost the totality of exports,
and for around 60% of its gross domestic
product (GDP). On current reserve
estimates, oil production is expected to
reduce steadily in future years and to
become negligible by 2035.
The country’s GDP per capita in 2013 was
$1081. Outside the oil sector, livelihoods
are concentrated in low productive, unpaid
agriculture
and
pastoralists
work,
accounting for around 15% of GDP. In fact,
85% of the working population is engaged
in non-wage work, chiefly in agriculture
(78%). Since late 2014, the decline in the
oil price has further exacerbated the
economic hardship of South Sudan. en by
around 20% due to the conflict. The recent
decline in oil prices from $110 per barrel to
$55 per barrel has further aggravated the
losses of oil revenue and has had a negative
impact on macro-budgetary indicators,
requiring painful fiscal adjustments. The
lower oil prices and reduced output creates
a fiscal deficit of 4.5 bn SSP (1.5 bn or 10%
of GDP) from a budget plan surplus of SSP
443 million. The current account has
deteriorated considerably leading to
depreciation of the parallel exchange rate
and fueling inflation. The low level of
foreign reserves can negatively affect food
imports with further knock on effects on
food intakes, notably during the “lean
season,” which runs between April and
October. The incidence of poverty has also
worsened, from 44.7% in 2011 to more
than 57.2% in 2015, with a corresponding
increase in the depth of poverty.
It is estimated that the current conflict has
cost up to 15% of the potential GDP in
2014. Military expenditure has increased,
jeopardizing the availability of resources
for service delivery and capital spending on
much needed infrastructure. A more
prolonged conflict would also impact
negatively on the 2015 harvest, further
reducing non-oil GDP in 2015. Oil
production has fall I have been asked to
address the larger context of this conflict,
its historic and political roots.
C. Political issues:
This conflict has several underlying causes.
But to focus on some basic factors, it arises
from two distinct contentious political
developments over the past two years
which
became
intertwined.
Those
developments took place within a fragile
political and military structure and rather
than being addressed and resolved were
allowed to fester and eventually lead to the
situation we have today. Those two
developments were growing dissention
within the ruling party over the way the
country was being governed, and the
decision by Vice President Riek Machar
to challenge President Kiir for the
leadership of the SPLM and then the
presidency in 2015.
The first of the developments that led to
today’s conflict was growing unhappiness
within the government about the way
President Kiir was managing affairs. Some
leading members of the ruling party in
particular felt that the President ignored the
party in filling positions, ignored in fact the
cabinet, and made decisions based on the
advice of a narrow group of advisors from
his home area, greater Bar El Ghazal.
Parallel with these concerns were growing
violations of human rights by the regime.
Human rights advocates, journalists, and
NGOS – both indigenous and international
– were being harassed. A prominent
journalist was assassinated in late 2012
with the government security apparatus
suspected. President Kiir initially accepted
but later rejected the U.S. offer of FBI help
for investigating the matter. The U.S.
Ambassador to South Sudan, Susan Page,
was outspoken about these matters during
the fall of 2012. They were the subject of
my last visit to Juba in December 2012.
At the same time as these problems were
growing, the party faced another internal
crisis. Vice President Riek Machar
indicated that he was moving to challenge
President Kiir for the SPLM leadership and
thereafter for the presidency in the election
of 2015. That challenge would come to a
head at the party conference scheduled for
2014.
Machar is extremely controversial within
the SPLM. A leader of the Nuer, the second
largest ethnic group in South Sudan, he had
split from the SPLM and fought against it
for years during the civil war. In 1991 his
forces were involved in a major massacre
of Dinkas, the largest ethnic group in South
Sudan. That has never been forgotten, even
after Machar united back with the SPLM in
2001. President Kiir subsequently invited
Machar to be Vice President. But theirs was
a difficult relationship. Kiir assigned
Machar only limited authority or
responsibilities.
Machar’s ambitions thus posed a major
challenge for the SPLM. Denied a path to
the presidency, Machar could be a threat,
either by leaving the SPLM and forming an
opposition party, or worse, by drawing on
his Nuer forces from within the SPLA and
posing a military threat. On the other hand,
providing him a path to the presidency
would surely arouse strong opposition
within the SPLM.
The tragedy is that the party, the SPLM,
was not up to meeting this challenge. Kiir,
in particular, chose not to use the party
machinery to try to defuse or resolve it.
Throughout 2013, he bypassed or delayed
party mechanisms. In July he dismissed
Machar and the entire cabinet. The
Secretary-General of the party, Pagan
Amun, was suspended and put under
investigation for inciting unrest.
And there is where the two developments
began to intertwine. Dissenters within the
SPLM, frustrated by their differences with
Kiir, drifted toward Machar not as
presidential candidate, but as an ally in
calling for more party democracy and
authority. They also chose, in a joint press
conference on December 6, 2013, to accuse
the government of giving away too much in
the negotiations with Sudan, an odd charge
coming from among others Pagan Amum,
who had also been the chief negotiator with
Sudan for the SPLM. This alliance, if you
can call it that, was diverse ethnically as
well as in terms of factions, including for
example the widow of SPLM leader John
Garang. Kiir considered all of them hostile
to his presidency and more of them than
Machar harboring presidential ambitions.
There was no meeting of the minds.
Things spiraled thereafter out of control.
Whatever the origin of the fighting that
started on December 15, President Kiir saw
this as a coup by Machar’s forces. Whether
it was or not is not entirely clear. In any
case, Machar’s compound was attacked,
and the party dissenters were jailed.
Machar fled to the field and his army
supporters left the SPLA to fight for him.
Another sometime integrated, sometime
outsider militia leader, Peter Gadet, joined
Machar’s forces. A former Governor of
Unity State, who had been dismissed by
Kiir, also joined Machar and is now the
lead negotiator for Machar in the talks in
Addis. The coalition and unity that Kiir had
painstakingly built in the run up to
independence has been unraveling.
D. Ethical issues:
July 2011 by United Nations Security
d.
The mission was established by
Security Council Resolution 1996 and
extended to 15 July 2013 by
Resolution 2057.
e.
As per Chapter VII of the United
Nations Charter, the peacekeeping
mission is concerned with the
protection of civilians, and thus is not
mandated to engage in protection of
South Sudan's territory or the
sovereignty of that territory (cf. the
2012 South Sudan–Sudan border war).
Council Resolution 1996 (2011).
In this situation of course, ethnic factors
have played a role and once fighting began,
became even more prominent. The fact that
Kiir and most of the SPLM leadership is
Dinka, and Machar is a leader of the Nuer,
is not irrelevant. And once the dogs of war
have been let loose, ethnic differences
become the vehicle of mobilization, and the
source of massacres, human rights
violations and hatred. But it is important
to remember that the sources of discontent
within the SPLM were not ethnically based,
and the most prominent of those who sided
with Machar in the press conference of
December 6, and are now in prison, are not
Nuer. The underlying political issues that
need to be addressed go beyond ethnicity.
b.
UN Security Council resolution 2132
(24 December 2013) authorized a
military component of up to 12,500
troops, and a police component of up
to 1,323.
c.
Mandate
B. UNSC resolutions

13 Jul 2011 – Security Council recommends to
the General Assembly that the Republic of South
Sudan be admitted as a Member of the United
Nations S/RES/1999 (2011) |
3. International actions to address issue
This includes:

A. The United Nations Mission in South
Sudan (UNMISS)
a.

This is the newest United Nations
peacekeeping mission for the recently
independent Republic of South Sudan,
which became independent on 9 July
2011. UNMISS was established on 8

Support for peace consolidation and thereby
fostering longer-term state building and
economic development
Support the Government of the Republic of
South Sudan in exercising its
responsibilities for conflict prevention,
mitigation and resolution and protect
civilians
Support the government of the Republic of
South Sudan in developing its capacity to
provide security, to establish rule of law,
and to strengthen the security and justice
sectors.

8 Jul 2011 – Security Council establishes UN
Mission in the Republic of South Sudan
(UNMISS) S/RES/1996 (2011) |
5 Jul 2012 – Security Council extends mandate of
UN Mission in South Sudan (UNSMIS) through 15
July 2012 S/RES/2057 (2012) |
2013
May 2013 – Security Council extends mandate of
C. NGOs
Sudan. Up to 60% of the country is cut off
during the rainy season, meaning that road
access in key locations of humanitarian
the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA)
S/RES/2104 (2013) | 29
response is minimal or impossible from
July until December (and in some cases
longer). This includes all areas currently
hosting Sudanese refugees, as well as
2014
South Sudan is host to one of the world’s
largest humanitarian responses, bringing
together
national
and
international
humanitarian actors in an operation worth
more than $1.2 billion in 2013. While the
Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in
2005 brought an end to the civil war and
led to the creation of an independent
country, the security situation in the new
nation remains volatile. Out of a population
of 12 million, more than 4.6m are food
insecure, many of them recent returnees.
Ongoing tensions between Sudan and
South Sudan, as well as communal violence
within the country, displace hundreds of
thousands of people each year. South Sudan
also plays host to several hundred thousand
refugees, mainly from neighbouring Sudan.
The Security Council extends the mandate of
UNMISS until 30 May 2015, underscoring its role in
protecting civilians, monitoring and investigating
human rights and creating the conditions for delivery
of humanitarian assistance [S/RES/2187] of 25
November 2014

The Security Council extends the mandate of
UNMISS until 30 November 2014, and decides to
increase UNMISS troop strength to 12,500 and a
police component to 1,323 personnel and reprioritize
its mandate towards the protection of civilians,
human rights monitoring and support for the delivery
of humanitarian assistance [S/RES/2155] of 27 May
2014
2015


conflict-prone areas in Jonglei and
Warrap states.

some improvements have been made on
this front, most humanitarian actors are
still struggling to get it right, and attribute
their shortcomings to lengthy procurement
and transport processes, difficulties in
accurately predicting caseloads per
location and the persistent risk of looting
and diversion of prepositioned goods by
armed actors and the authorities.
Re d Crescent
Red Cross
Doctors without borders
The Security Council condemns the “flagrant”
violations to the Cessation of Hostilities Agreements
and underscores its willingness to impose targeted
sanctions in order to support the search for an
inclusive and sustainable peace in South Sudan
[S/RES/2206] of 3 March 2015
i.

The context demands effective planning
and prepositioning, which in turn depends
on timely and predictable funding. While
ii.
Active hostilities and
attacks against
humanitarian activities
Physical environment

Few places are more physically
challenging for aid workers than South
While parts of the country have stabilised,
the overall security situation in South
Sudan remains volatile. Particularly in
Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile and Lakes
attributed to both inadequate governance
states, humanitarian actors report regular
suspensions of humanitarian activities or
structures and capacity and deliberate
attempts to control or divert humanitarian
the temporary withdrawal of staff due to
fighting between armed groups. Mines
assistance.
and unexploded ordnance continue to give
cause for concern, with a total of 684
4. Main Positions
accused the government, opposition forces and other
groups of serious human rights abuses in the conflict.
Chinese state media say the latest deployment
affirms Beijing's growing role in global affairs.
Daniel Wagner, CEO of U.S.-based Country Risk
Solutions, says "like any country, China is both
interested in protecting its interests as well as in
projecting its power."
known or suspected hazardous areas at the
China
end of 2012.
iii.

"Apart from the oil question, there's the greater
question of China stepping up to the plate in terms of
accepting its responsibilities as a rising global power,
and you could certainly look at Sudan as a test case,
or a litmus test, in that regard," he said.
Bureaucratic
impediments
The regulatory environment for
humanitarian activities in South Sudan is
a key concern, with aid workers reporting
a significant increase in bureaucratic
impediments since the country’s
independence. It should not come as a
surprise that a newly independent nation
needs to establish governance structures
and policy frameworks, and it is difficult
to work in an environment where NGO
registration laws, labour laws and
immigration laws are still being drafted.
Yet there is a sense among humanitarian
workers that the authorities are
deliberately undermining the operational
independence of humanitarian activities.
Bureaucratic impediments can be
a.
Current news
BBC: China dispatched 130 additional troops to
South Sudan on April 8, 2015 to fulfill a United
Nations peacekeeping pledge to help secure the
restive nation, which has been wracked by civil war.
The latest batch of troops joined the 570 Chinese
peacekeepers who began deploying to the African
nation in Janauary as part of an ongoing U.N.
mission that has more than 11,500 uniformed
personnel on the ground.
The peacekeepers are tasked with securing sites at
U.N. bases and protecting civilians who've fled
violence, which, according to Chinese state media,
has killed more than 10,000 people and driven more
than a million from their homes. Rights groups have
The deployment to South Sudan marks the first time
China has sent an infantry battalion on a
peacekeeping mission. Chinese state media have
reported that, contrary to previous Chinese
peacekeeping missions, where soldiers played
supportive roles, this infantry battalion has combat
capabilities.
b. Position overall
China is generally recognized by its noninterference
policy towards African nations. Yet, current
diplomatic trend of Chinese diplomatic policy is
towards a expansion of Chinese national interest in
these states. Up to 2011 there were approximately 5
Chinese official development finance projects
identified in South Sudan by various media reports.
These projects range from assisting in constructing a
hospital in Bentiu in 2011, to a grant of 200 million
CNY for agriculture, education, health and water
supply projects in South Sudan. Yet, China has also
taken part in imposing sanctions on the African state,
and has approved for multiple UNSC resolutions as
well.
(2)
United States
The U.S. Government is the leading international
(1) Overview
U.S. Assistance to South Sudan
sovereign, independent state on July 9, 2011
following its secession from Sudan. The United
States played a key role in helping create the 2005
Comprehensive Peace Agreement that laid the
groundwork for the 2011 referendum on selfdetermination, through which the people of South
Sudan overwhelmingly voted to secede. Several
disputes between Sudan and South Sudan remain
unresolved post-independence, including
demarcation of the border, status and rights of the
sanctions regime for South Sudan but stopped short
donor to South Sudan, and is providing significant
of imposing worldwide travel bans and asset freezes
humanitarian assistance to the hundreds of thousands
on officials in the conflict-torn country or an arms
of South Sudanese citizens displaced or otherwise
The United States recognized South Sudan as a
BBC: The U.N. Security Council established a
affected by the crisis since December 2013. The U.S.
embargo. (2015. 5)
government is helping to provide basic services to
citizens; promote effective, inclusive, and
The unanimously adopted resolution, drafted by the
accountable governance; diversify the economy; and
United States, threatens to blacklist anyone
combat poverty. Increasing stability in South Sudan
undermining security or interfering with the peace
will depend on a combination of strengthening core
institutions and governance processes to make them
more inclusive, responding to the expectations of the
process after Thursday and April 1 deadlines set by
the regional East African IGAD bloc.
population for essential services and improved
livelihoods, and containing conflicts and addressing
the grievances behind them.
citizens of each country in the other, and the status of
Russian Federation
the Abyei region. The United States supports the
In addition, Sudanese refugees continue to flee to
efforts of the African Union High-Level
South Sudan due to ongoing fighting in Sudan’s
Implementation Panel to help the parties work
South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. The United
through these issues. On December 15, 2013,
States is committed to meeting the humanitarian
longstanding political tensions between President
needs of these refugees, and has urged the
The Russian government signaled its approval of a
Salva Kiir Mayardit and former Vice President Riek
international community to join it in efforts to relieve
Machar erupted into widespread violence with
move by the United Nations Security Council
suffering and assist those affected by the ongoing
violence.
(UNSC) to adopt a resolution that calls on Sudan and
devastating implications for the South Sudanese
people. The United States is supporting the
South Sudan to return to negotiations and put an end
Intergovernmental Authority on Development
(IGAD) as it leads mediation efforts between the
parties.
Current News
(3) Current news:
to hostilities that have raged over the last few weeks.
Position
Originally, china and Russia are resisted a Western
push for the U.N. Security Council to threaten Sudan
and South Sudan with sanctions if the two countries
fail to comply with demands to halt their escalating
conflict. Russia was also initially opposed to the idea
of an arms embargo, while European and other
council members were in favor of it, because the
Russian government had feared an arms embargo
would favor the rebels and put the government at a
disadvantage.
However in 2015. 3, Russia participated in adopting
a resolution, drafted by the United States, which
threatens to blacklist anyone undermining security or
interfering with the peace process after Thursday and
April 1 deadlines set by the regional East African
IGAD bloc. It also approved for a sanctions regime
for South Sudan, which stopped short of imposing
worldwide travel bans and asset freezes on officials
in the conflict-torn country or an arms embargo.
.
5. Acronyms and associated parties
APCs Armored Personnel Carriers
CSB County Support Base
GPOC Greater Pioneer Operation
Company
HRD Human Rights Division
IDP Internally Displaced Person
IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on
Development
INDBATT UNMISS Indian Battalion
JEM Justice and Equality Movement
MoH Ministry of Health
NPSSS National Prison Services of South
Sudan
NSS National Security Service
OHCHR United Nations Office of the
High Commissioner for Human Rights
PoC Protection of Civilians
SPLA Sudan People’s Liberation Army
SPLM Sudan People’s Liberation
Movement
SPLM/A-IO Sudan People’s Liberation
Movement/Army in Opposition
SSDM/A Sudan Democratic
Movement/Army
SSLA South Sudan Liberation Army
SSNPS South Sudan National Police
Service
UNMAS United Nations Mine Action
Service
UNMISS United Nations Mission in the
Republic of South Sudan
UNOSAT United Nations Operational
Satellite Applications Programme
UNPOL United Nations Police
UPDF Uganda People’s Defence Force
WFP World Food Programme
At a glance
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