Equity Related Products Futures and Options Professor Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 1 Futures Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 2 Spot – Future - Parity Today, one (theoretical) Index-Future is sold at 4.090 € (1€ per Index-point). Long and Short-positions can be described by a profit and loss diagram: Long Future = Buyer Profit Index 4090 Short Future = Seller Loss Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics If you are Long-Future, then you may claim for delivery of „one index“ at a price of 4090 € at the maturity of the indexfuture. That means, if the index at delivery is quoted at more than 4090, you will win from your futures position. slide no.: 3 Spot – Future - Parity You hold an Index-Portfolio, currently valued at 5,500 € (1 Index-point = 1 €). If the annual risk free rate rf is at 3.5 % and the expected dividends on your Index portfolio are at 100 € (d = 100/5,500) , an Index – Future with one year to maturity has a fair price of: F0 S0 1 rF d F0 5 ,500 1 0 ,035 0 ,0182 F0 5 ,592.40 € To prevent our Index-Portfolio from losses, we could hedge the price risk by taking a short – future position (selling a future at 5,592.40). Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 4 Spot – Future - Parity The total expected payoffs from your portfolio will depend on the future state of the environment (see below payoffs 1-5). A decreasing stock market will be compensated by profits from the short future position, increasing stock prices will be outbalanced by losses due to payment obligations from the future. Assets Stock Portfolio Payoff1 Payoff2 Profit Index 5692,40 Loss Payoff3 Payoff4 Payoff5 +4500,00 +5000,00 +5500,00 +6000,00 +6500,00 +100,00 +100,00 +100,00 +100,00 +100,00 Short Future +1092,40 +592,40 +92,40 -407,60 -907,60 Total +5692,40 +5692,40 +5692,40 +5692,40 +5692,40 Dividends Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 5 Spot – Future - Parity Assets Payoff1 Payoff2 Payoff3 Payoff4 Payoff5 Stock Portfolio +4500,0 +5000,00 +5500,00 +6000,00 0 +6500,0 0 Dividends +100,00 +100,00 +100,00 +100,00 +100,00 Short Future +1092,4 0 +592,40 +92,40 -407,60 -907,60 Total +5692,4 +5692,40 +5692,40 +5692,40 0 +5692,4 0 Initially you have paid 5,500 € for your stock portfolio. Taking the short future position, the final outcome of your portfolio will be 5,692,40 €, whatever the stock price will be, i.e. you will earn 192,40 which equals 3.5%. Obviously, this profit is riskless: F 0 D S0 rF S0 Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics F0 S0 1 rF d Spot-FutureParity slide no.: 6 Spot – Future - Parity Rising future prices will – due to arbitrage trading - induce rising spot prices. For example, a future traded at 6,000 € is clearly overpriced, when the stock portfolio remains unchanged at 5,500 €. In this case, „smart“ traders will make arbitrage profits of 407,50 € per contract and bring back the market to equilibrium: Action t0 t1 Borrow money at rF (3,5%) + 5,500.00 - 5,692.50 Buy/Sell Stock Portfolio - 5,500.00 + Stock Sell/Buy Future at 6,000 0 + 6,000.00 - Stock Total 0 + 307,50 Note, that the arbitrage profit equals the difference between a fair- and mispriced future (6,000 – 5,592,40) plus Dividends. Higher Future prices will lead to massivly increased demand at spot markets until spot prices and futures are back to equilibrium. Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 7 Spot – Future – Parity Financial Market Stability • Spot Markets and Future (Forward) Markets are interlinked. • Mispriced spot or future market instruments will affect both markets • Future market speculations that drive futures prices will also drive spot market prices due to arbitrage trading (et vice versa) • Speculation on futures markets, resulting in higher future prices will induce higher spot market prices due to arbitrage trading. Finally this may result in spot market bubbles that jeopardizes the allocation mechanism of real goods markets. Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 8 Options Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 9 Economic Benefits Provided by Options Derivative securities are instruments that derive their value from the value of other assets. Derivatives include options, futures, and swaps. Options and other derivative securities have several important economic functions: • Help bring about a more efficient allocation of risk; • Save transactions costs…sometimes it is cheaper to trade a derivative than the asset underlying it, and • Permit investment strategies that would not otherwise be possible. Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 10 Options Vocabulary Call option • Gives the holder the right to purchase an asset at a specified price on or before a certain date Put option • Gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a specified price on or before a certain date Strike price or exercise price: the price specified for purchase or sale in an option contract American or European option Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics • American options allow holders to exercise at any point prior to expiration • European options allow holders to exercise only on the expiration date slide no.: 11 Options Vocabulary Long position • The buyer of an option has a long position, and has the right to exercise the option. Short position • The seller (or writer) of an option has a short position, and must fulfill the contract if the buyer exercises. • As compensation, the seller receives the option premium. Neither trade usually has any connection to the underlying firm. Can trade options on an exchange (such as CBOE) or in the over-the-counter market. Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 12 Moneyness of Options S = current stock price X = strike price S>X Call In-the-money S=X At-the-money S<X Out-of-themoney Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics Put Out-of-themoney At-the-money In-the-money slide no.: 13 Option Quotations Option quotations OptiTech 30.00 • The price per share for an option contract, which is a contract to buy or sell 100 shares of the underlying stock. • CBOE options expire on the third Saturday of the expiration month. Expire Strik Call s e April 27.50 3.26 Put 0.67 30.00 May 27.50 3.91 1.23 30.00 April 32.50 0.85 3.24 30.00 May 32.50 1.55 3.83 Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics In-the-money calls Out-of-the-money puts In-the-money puts Out-of-the-money calls slide no.: 14 Intrinsic and Time Value of Options Intrinsic value Time value • For in the money options: the difference between the current price of the underlying asset and the strike price (S-X for calls and X-S for puts). • For out of the money options: the intrinsic value is zero. • The difference between an option’s intrinsic value and its market price (premium) • Consider the May call with $27.50 strike price from previous table: •Intrinsic value = $30.00 - $27.50 = $2.50 •Time value = $3.91 - $2.50 = $1.41 Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 15 Payoff Diagrams Shows value of an option on the expiration date Y-axis plots exercise value or “intrinsic value” X-axis plots price of underlying asset Long and short positions Use payoff diagrams for: Gross and net positions (the net positions subtract the option premium) Payoff: the price of the option at expiration date Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 16 Long Call Option Payoffs Payoff at Expiration x = $75, premium = $8 Payoff slope = 1 -8 75 83 stock price Net payoff Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 17 Short Call Option Payoffs +8 75premium 83 = $8 x = $75, Payoff at expiration stock price Payoff Net payoff slope = -1 • Both long and short positions have zero net payoff at a price of $83 • On net basis, buyer of the call makes a profit when the price exceeds $ 83; seller of the call makes a profit when price is below $83. Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 18 Long Put Option Payoffs 75 x = 75, premium = $7 68 Payoff at expiration Payoff Price of stock 68 75 -7 Net payoff Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 19 Short Put Option Payoffs Payoff at expiration x = 75, premium = $7 Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics Net payoff 7 68 75 Stock price Payoff -75 slide no.: 20 Portfolios of Options Look at payoff diagrams for combinations of options rather than just one Shows the range of potential strategies made possible by options Some positions can be a form of portfolio insurance. Some strategies allow investor to speculate on the volatility (or lack thereof) of a stock rather than betting on which direction it will move. Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 21 Portfolio Containing 1 Call and 1 Put (Long Straddle) Call x = 30, premium = $4.5, Put x = 30, premium = $3.5 Payoff Net payoff 30 22 38 -8 • Buy a put and a call on the same stock at the same strike price and the same expiration date • Profits come with large price Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 22 Option Strategies (Straddle) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 40 60 Stock Price Long Call (Profit / Loss) Long Put (Profit / Loss) Straddle (Profit/Loss) Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics 80 40 -10 75 65 100 60 -10 55 45 120 140 160 180 200 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 -10 -10 -10 10 30 50 70 35 15 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 25 5 -15 5 25 45 65 slide no.: 23 Option Strategies (Strangle) Position Value Strangle - Long call and long put (at different exercise prices) Strategy for profiting from high volatility Strangle Share Price Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 24 Option Strategies Synthetic Long Future Position Value Synthetic Long Future (Long Call & Short Put) Long Call Short Put Share Price Exercise Price (Strike) Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 25 Option Strategies Synthetic Short Future Position Value Synthetic Short Future(Short Call & Long Put) Short Call Share Price Long Put Exercise Price (Strike) Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 26 Option Strategies (Short Butterfly) 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 40 60 80 Stock Price Long Call (Profit / Loss) Long Put (Profit / Loss) Short Call (Profit/Loss) Short Put (Profit/Loss) Butterfly Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics 100 40 -10 75 5 -37 33 60 -10 55 5 -17 33 120 80 -10 35 5 3 33 140 100 -10 15 5 3 13 120 -10 -5 5 3 -7 160 140 10 -5 5 3 13 180 160 30 -5 5 3 33 180 50 -5 -15 3 33 200 200 70 -5 -35 3 33 slide no.: 27 Other Option Portfolio Payoffs Now look at portfolios containing options, stocks, and bonds: Looking at these payoffs will help lead us to an important option pricing relationship: put-call parity. Construct portfolios that include options, stocks and bonds: Stock and put options Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics Bond and call options slide no.: 28 Payoff at expiration Gross Payoff of Stock + Put $X = strike price of put x x • • Stock price Position allows investor to profit if stock price rises above $X. If stock price falls below $X, portfolio provides protection: put option allows investor to sell at a price no lower than $X. Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 29 Payoff at expiration Gross Payoff of Bond + Call $X = strike price of call and face value of bond x x stock price • The bond assuresand a minimum payoffone of $X This payoff diagram the preceding are • The call allows for aidentical! higher payoff if the stock price rises Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 30 Put-Call Parity Future payoffs of “stock+put” are identical to payoffs of “bond+call” provided: • • • • • Put and call have same exercise price and expiration date; Underlying stock pays no dividends during life of options; Put and call are European options; Bond is risk-free, zero-coupon, price at maturity = strike (X), Bond matures when options expire. If two assets A and B, have same future payoffs with certainty, then they should sell for the same price now Price of put + price of stock = Price of call + price of bond P+S=C+B Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 31 Factors Affecting Option Prices (holding other factors equal) Price of underlying asset • Asset price and call price are positively related. • Asset price and put price are negatively related. Time to expiration • More time usually makes options more valuable. Strike price • Higher X means higher put price; lower X means higher call price. Interest rate Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics • Calls: higher rate means higher call value. • Puts: higher rate reduces put value. slide no.: 32 Evaluation Framework Assume that a stock is currently quoted at 150 €. If nothing happens over the coming year, the stock‘s price will also be at 150 € in one year. The one-year risk free rate is at 10%. Under this assumptions, a Call – Option, maturing one year from now with a strike of 120 € is easy to value: 1 year Stock – price t0: 150 € Strike Call t0 (PV): 108,58 € = 120 X 2,7184 – 0,10 Stock – price t1: 150 € Strike Call t1: 120 € The Intrinsic Value of the Call (X-S) is 41,42 € !! Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 33 Evaluation Framework Under this conditions, the Call Option Pricing Model is like: PVCALL S X e r 41,42 150 120 2 ,71840 ,10 This price is a fair price, as it does not allow to gain risk-free profits from arbitrage-trading: One could also borrow money to buy the stock now. At a risk free rate of 10% p.a. the cost of borrowing over one year will add to ((150€ x (2,7184 0,10) - 1)) 15.7764 €. The other way round – borrowing money to buy the option - and one year later the stock leads to the same borrowing costs: Borrowing of 41,42 € at 10% means to pay back 41,42 x 2,7184 0,10 = 45,7764 € after one year. Netted with the profit from the option‘s exercise at a strike of 120 € (150 € - 120 € = 30 €), the costs add to 15.7764 €. Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 34 Determinants of Option Prices Variable Strike Term to Exercise Price of the Underlying Volatility of the Interest Rate Underlying Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics Direction ...the higher the strike ...the longer the duration ...the higher the price ...the higher ...the higher the volatility the rate Option Price ...the smaller the price ...the higher the price ...the higher the price ...the higher ...the higherthe the price price slide no.: 35 Price & Value Chart Option Price Intrinsic Value Time Value „Greeks“ show the sensitivity of the option price referring to: Option Price Intrinsic Value Time Value Premium Stock Price Strike Out of the money Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics at the money in the money D = Delta: Call Price and Spot Price G = Gamma: Delta = Theta: Call Price and Time to Expiration K = Kappa / Vega: Call Price and Volatility R = Rho: Call Price and Int. Rate slide no.: 36 Factors Affecting Option Prices Volatility Suppose a stock now worth $40 might increase or decrease in value by $10: Call option with X = $40 will pay $10 or $0. Now suppose a stock worth $40 might increase or decrease in value by $20: Call option with X = $40 will pay $20 or $0. The 2nd call option is more valuable…upside is better, downside the same as the 1st option. Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Corporate Finance Berlin School of Economics slide no.: 37