Obama, U.S. Foreign Policy, and the Quest to
Strengthen Democratic Governance
Jeremy M. Weinstein
Department of Political Science
Stanford University
The Critics
“Mitt Romney believes in
the march of freedom. Like
Ronald Reagan. Barack
Obama doesn’t get it. He
hasn’t kept faith with those
people who seek freedom
for themselves and their
children and that has been a
disappointment to our
heritage, to who we are,
and to those brave people
who are struggling for
freedom.”
-- Senior Aide to Romney
Is Romney Correct?
Outline
• President Obama’s Agenda on Democracy and Human Rights
• Why Focus on Transparency and Democratic Accountability
• The Origins and Impact of the Open Government Partnership
• Transparency=Accountability? A Case Study
The Inheritance
• A seriously damaged state of democracy promotion
– Democracy promotion=invasion/occupation of Iraq
– Legal abuses in the war on terrorism (e.g. detainees, prisoners
in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Guantanamo Bay)
– Suspicion of the U.S. democracy agenda in the Middle East
– Reluctance of U.S. allies to cooperate on these issues
– Declining support for democracy promotion at home
A Democratic Recession
Poor Democracies Struggling
The Early Days
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•
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A change in rhetoric, distinguish from the “Freedom Agenda”
Adjustments to the mission in major wars
Repairing America’s standing on human rights
Reinvigoration of global diplomatic engagement
– Two-track approach – Russia as the exemplar
In short, a pragmatic, progressive agenda - finding a more
effective way to pursue the ideal of universal rights.
To critics, an abandonment of the democracy promotion
agenda.
A Summary Scorecard – in 2012
Obama=Bush=Clinton=Bush=Reagan
• Increasingly strong, pro-democracy rhetoric
• Critical role in a set of democratic transitions (Honduras, Haiti,
Kenya, Ivory Coast)
• Rising support for democracy assistance
• Continuing close relationships with a set of autocratic allies
What is Distinctive about Obama’s
Approach?
1. Rehabilitation of U.S. democracy promotion agenda
2. Doubled down on investment in multilateral institutions
3. Able management of democratic change in the region where it
was least expected (Middle East/North Africa)
4. A concerted focus on the long game, modernizing the enterprise
of democracy promotion
–
–
–
–
Role for emerging democracies
Focus on democratic accountability, anti-corruption
Linking democracy and development
Internet freedom and new technologies
What is Distinctive about Obama’s
Approach?
1. Rehabilitation of U.S. democracy promotion agenda
2. Doubled down on investment in multilateral institutions
3. Able management of democratic change in the region where it
was least expected (Middle East/North Africa)
4. A concerted focus on the long game, modernizing the enterprise
of democracy promotion
–
–
–
–
Role for emerging democracies
Focus on democratic accountability, anti-corruption
Linking democracy and development
Internet freedom and new technologies
Overcoming Misconceptions
• People in the region do not care about democracy
• The regimes in the region are stable
• Pressuring for democratic change will cost us cooperation on
other priorities
• Pressuring for democratic change will not have any impact
• The rise of Islamists will set back U.S. foreign policy interests
The Challenge of Promoting Democracy
during the Arab Spring
Democratic change
(potentially) in
competition with other
U.S. objectives
Democratic change
(potentially)
complementary to other
U.S. objectives
High opposition to the
regime
Bahrain
Egypt
Iran
Jordan
Morocco
Yemen
Libya
Syria
Tunisia
Low opposition to the
regime
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Iraq
Kuwait
Lebanon
Palestinian territories
What is Distinctive about Obama’s
Approach?
1. Rehabilitation of U.S. democracy promotion agenda
2. Doubled down on investment in multilateral institutions
3. Able management of democratic change in the region where it
was least expected (Middle East/North Africa)
4. A concerted focus on the long game, modernizing the enterprise
of democracy promotion
–
–
–
–
Role for emerging democracies
Focus on transparency, accountability, and anti-corruption
Linking democracy and development
Internet freedom and new technologies
Outline
• President Obama’s Agenda on Democracy and Human Rights
• Why Focus on Transparency and Democratic Accountability
• The Origins and Impact of the Open Government Partnership
• Transparency=Accountability? A Case Study
Motivation
• A shared challenge – making democratic institutions work
• Powerful innovations around the world, especially in emerging
democracies
• Evidence that these innovations improve development outcomes
Will Democracy Deliver?
• Managing diversity, competing interest groups; absence of
programmatic parties; uninformed voters; money in politics; shortterm incentives; etc.
Powerful Innovations
Early Evidence of Impact
•
•
•
•
Reducing leakage in education funds (Uganda)
Improving rates of infant mortality (Indonesia, Uganda)
Reducing corruption, improving service delivery (India)
Promoting greater political competition (Brazil)
Outline
• President Obama’s Agenda on Democracy and Human Rights
• Why Focus on Transparency and Democratic Accountability
• The Origins and Impact of the Open Government Partnership
• Transparency=Accountability? A Case Study
Tools to Promote Transparency and
Accountability
•
•
•
•
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Diplomacy
Foreign assistance
Conditionality
Domestic legislation
Global leadership
Open Government Partnership Launch:
September 20, 2011
Capturing the Essence
With all the chaos of the Palestinian bid this week, The New York
Times probably didn’t have the bandwidth to cover this story; at
any rate, they didn’t. I’m hoping the paper will in time. This is
global news about a new petrie dish for international democratic
progress. It is a new model: a forum, not a court; a nudging
engine, not a ranking system; a mashup of personal initiative and
entrepreneurship with the stately dance of foreign relations. It is
multistakeholderism on steroids, in that governments are acting in
real partnership with civil society groups; indeed, governments are
acting in partnership with governments – at the same time, they’re
eying one another in an implicit contest for bragging rights.
-- Susan Crawford
September 2010
United Nations General Assembly
“In all parts of the world, we see the promise of innovation to make
government more open and accountable. And now, we must build on
that progress. And when we gather back here next year, we should
bring specific commitments to promote transparency; to fight
corruption; to energize civic engagement; to leverage new
technologies so that we strengthen the foundations of freedom in our
own countries, while living up to the ideals that can light the world.”
Reforming Government is a Lonely Business
Reformers Need High-Level Support
An Open Government Partnership
• Engage a large and diverse group of countries in a fresh
conversation about governance in which all countries have an
equal voice at the table
• Showcase the leadership and innovation of both developed and
developing countries, highlighting innovations and creative
approaches and creating opportunities to learn from one another
• Secure concrete commitments from governments that signal an
individual and collective commitment to reform
• Partner with non-governmental actors to develop reforms and
drive implementation
Core Elements of OGP
•
•
•
•
•
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Minimum Standards for Participation
Open Government Declaration
National Action Plans, with Consultation
Independent Monitoring and Reporting
Seats for Civil Society at the Table
Partnerships with the Private Sector
How Did OGP Come About?
• January 2011—Small meeting of ministerial officials from 9
governments (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Norway,
Philippines, South Africa, United States, UK) and international
experts to share open government experiences and discuss how
to move the transparency, accountability and civic engagement
agenda forward. Group decides to create OGP.
• February 2011—Initial group of governments and civil society
form a Steering Committee and begin developing the
architecture of OGP, including criteria for participation. US and
Brazil become co-chairs.
• July 2011—The Steering Committee holds an international
outreach meeting for all OGP eligible countries (79 + 3) in
Washington DC, co-hosted by Secretary Clinton and
Foreign Minister Patriota of Brazil.
Challenging Issues
• Appropriate balance of political commitments and action steps,
given international stage
• Tension between inclusion and maintaining credibility
• Degree of independent, external oversight of domestic
commitments/actions
What Happened to India?
Mubai, November 2010
Barack Obama lauds efforts in
Indian villages to empower
citizens
PTI Sep 21, 2011, 02.03pm IST
Tags:
•US administration|
•united states
NEW YORK: US President Barack
Obama lauded efforts being made in
villages across India to empower
citizens and promote transparency in
governance at a global forum here,
which incidentally India has decided
not to join.
The Launch
The Open Government Declaration
Together, we declare our commitment to:
• Increase the availability of information about governmental
activities
• Support civic participation
• Implement the highest standards of professional integrity
throughout our administrations
• Increase access to new technologies for openness and
accountability
Action Plans - Highlights
• 45 countries, 790 commitments
• 70% of action plans are graded as specific,
measureable, actionable, measurable, and
timebound by Global Integrity
Types of Commitments
Top 10 Focus Areas
Commitment Activity Focus Area
Count
E-government
199
Open Data
190
Citizen Engagement
131
Access to Information/ Freedom of Information
93
Budgets & Financial Planning
79
Sub-national governance
57
Public Servants/Civil Service
50
Anti-Corruption
34
Procurement
29
Capacity building/ Training
28
Open Government vs. Open Data
Is there conceptual confusion?
Will governments avoid accountability but get credit for it through
open data commitments?
Evidence of Impact
Are governments taking steps that they would not have taken in the
absence of OGP?
• United States
• Brazil
• Philippines
United States
September 20, 2011, 4:31 PM ET
US Joins Extractive Industry
Transparency Initiative Amid Open
Government Launch
Brazil
Philippines
“All but overshadowed by the Wednesday meeting between Presidents Benigno Aquino
3rd and Barack Obama was the submission of what could be one of the most important
documents framed by the Aquino Administration. At the Open Government Partnership
(OGP) launching in New York on Sept. 21, PNoy submitted the draft Philippine
Government Action Plan (PGAP) intended to institute broad and deep participation by the
people in governance.”
-- Manila Times
• Online publication of budget and procurement decisions
• Participation by civil society in budgeting at the national,
regional, and local levels
• 600 community-level poverty reduction strategies
• Community oversight of public works projects
• Freedom of information bill
Challenges going forward
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Managing expectations
Ensuring follow-through
Recognizing that transparency does not equal accountability
Broadening beyond the executive branch of government
Measuring impact
Figuring out what comes next
Outline
• President Obama’s Agenda on Democracy and Human Rights
• Why Focus on Transparency and Democratic Accountability
• The Origins and Impact of the Open Government Partnership
• Transparency=Accountability? A Case Study
Dissemination Materials
Resistance from Parliament
James Kakooza: “I have
arrested the Box!”
Empirical Results
• Do voters update their attitudes and intentions?
• Do MPs improve their performance?
• Does transparency affect electoral outcomes?
Empirical Results
• Do voters update their attitudes and intentions?
Yes, but effects are short-lived and we cannot rule out Hawthorne
effects.
• Do MPs improve their performance?
No, though there is weak evidence of aggregate change over time
and adverse effects.
• Does transparency affect electoral outcomes?
No.
Possible Explanations
1. Implementation failure.
2. Lack of political competitiveness.
3. MP attention to parties, and not to voters.
4. Political interference.