Chapter 6 Income Determination II --The IS-LM Model © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Contents: • Assumptions of the IS-LM Model • What is the IS curve? • Graphical derivation of the IS curve • Slope of the IS curve • Shift of the IS curve • What is the LM curve? • Graphical derivation of the LM curve • Slope of the LM curve © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Contents: • Shift of the LM curve • Equilibrium in both the goods market and money market • Change in equilibrium caused by an autonomous change in injection or withdrawal • Change in equilibrium caused by an autonomous change in money demandor money supply © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Assumptions of the IS-LM Model © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Assumptions of the IS-LM model: 1. Yf is a constant. 2. An unemployment of resources. -- The model is to find out determinants of the equilibrium GNP and ways to eliminate unemployment. 3. GNP = GDP = Y. 4. Price level is kept constant. -- Nominal variables = real variables and nominal r = real r. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Keynesian models Keynesian model Markets involved Y-E model • Goods market (elementary Keynesian model) IS-LM model • Goods market • Money market AD-AS model • Goods market • Money market • Factor market © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Endogenous variables Y Y and r Y, r and P What is the IS Curve? © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 What is the IS Curve? IS Curve is a line relating real national income (Y) to real interest rate (r) at which the goods market is in equilibrium (i.e., with Y = E or J = W). © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Graphical Derivation of the IS Curve © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Four-quadrant diagram r Quadrant II (NW quadrant) J Quadrant I (NE quadrant) 0 Quadrant III (SW quadrant) © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y Quadrant IV (SE quadrant) W Quadrant II (NW quadrant) Injection function: r J=I+G+X J G and X are autonomous. I is negatively related to r. Thus, J is negatively related to r. r J=I+G+X J © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 0 Quadrant IV (SE quadrant) 0 Y Withdrawal function W =S+T+M Y W S, T and M are positively related to Y Thus, W is positively related to Y W=S+T+M W © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Quadrant III (SW quadrant) J1 J J and W of points on the 45° line are equal. Hence they represent equilibrium in the 0 45o W1 (= J1) goods market, where J = W. J=W W © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 r When interest rate = r0 injection = J0 r0 Equilibrium in goods market A B J To achieve equilibrium: J0 = W0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 0 J0 IS o 45 W0 W Y0 Y Corresponding national income = Y0 Slope of the IS Curve © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Initial goods market equil.: (Y0, r0) r Downwar d sloping 1. If r ( r0 to r1) J ( J0 to J1) So at point Z, J > W 2. To restore equil., Y should (Y0 to Y1) to raise W until W = J again. r0 r1 r & Y are negatively related. Z IS 0 Y0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y1 Y Shift of the IS Curve © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Assumption: An autonomous in J or in W (not caused by changes in r or Y) r J>W If r remains constant, Y has to to Y1 until W & equates with J again. B (Y1,r0) A (Y0,r0) IS0 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 IS curve shifts rightward to restore equilibrium. IS1 Y r Assumption: An autonomous in J or in W (not caused by changes in r or Y) J>W C (Y0,r1) If Y remains constant, r has to to r1 until J & equates with W again. A (Y0,r0) IS0 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 IS1 IS curve shifts upward to restore equilibrium. Y r Assumption: An autonomous in J or in W (not caused by changes in r or Y) J<W A (Y0,r0) D (Y2, r0) E (Y0, r2) IS0 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 IS curve shifts leftward or downward to restore equilibrium. IS2 Y Q6.2: Derive from four-quadrant diagrams the change in the IS curve, (a) when there is an autonomous rise in J. (b) when there is an autonomous fall in J. (c) when there is an autonomous rise in W. (d) when there is an autonomous fall in W. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Q6.3: Fill in the following table. Result Rightward (upward) shift of the IS curve Possible causes J autonomously W autonomously Leftward (downward) shift of the IS curve J autonomously W autonomously © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 What is the LM Curve? © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 What is the LM Curve? LM curve is a line relating real national income (Y) to real interest rate (r) at which the money market is in equilibrium [i.e.,with real money demand (Md) or real liquidity preference (L) = real money supply (Ms)]. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Graphical derivation of the LM Curve © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Transactions demand for money: Mt = dY Income elasticity of transactions demand for money d is the change in Mt resulting from a unit change in income. Income & Mt are positively related & so d > 0. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Asset demand for money: Ma = e r + Ma* Interest elasticity of asset demand for money Autonomous asset demand for money e is the change in Ma resulting from a unit change in r e<0 Ma* is the autonomous asset demand for money Ma* > 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Money supply function M1 is the sum of legal tender in public circulation and demand deposits M1 Ms P General price level © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Four-quadrant diagram r Quadrant II (NW quadrant) Ma Quadrant I (NE quadrant) 0 Quadrant III (SW quadrant) © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y Quadrant IV (SE quadrant) Mt Quadrant II (NW quadrant) r Asset demand for money Ma is negatively related to r Ma r Ma = er + Ma* Ma © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 0 Quadrant IV (SE quadrant) Y Y Mt Transactions demand for money Mt is positively related to Y Mt = dY Mt © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Quadrant III (SW quadrant) Ma M1/P Equil. Condition: (Md=Ms ) If Mt = M1/P - Ma, then Mt + Ma = Md = M1/P = Ms Mt Ma = M1/P - Ma Mt 45o M1/P = Ms = Ma+Mt © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 M1/P Mt r LM When interest rate = r0 assets demand = Ma0 Ma B r0 A 0 Ma0 In Equilibrium: Mt0 = Ms – Ma0 Ma0 + Mt0 = Ms © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y0 Mt0 45o Mt Equilibrium in money market Y Corresponding national income = Y0 Slope of the LM Curve © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Assume initial money market equil.: (Y0, r0) If Y (Y0 to Y1) Mt ( Mt0 to Mt1) r r1 Upward sloping r0 0 At point Z, Md > Ms LM Z Y0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y1 To restore equilibrium, r should ( r0 to r1 ) such that Ma & Mt + Ma equates with Ms again. r & Y are positively related Y Shift of the LM Curve © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Assumption: An autonomous in Md or in Ms (not caused by changes in r or Y) r LM1 Md > M s LM0 If r remains constant, B (Y1,r0) Y has to to Y1 such that Mt and Md = Ms again. A (Y0,r0) LM curve shifts leftward to restore equilibrium. 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y r Assumption: An autonomous in Md or in Ms (not caused by changes in r or Y) Md > M s LM1 C (Y0,r1) LM0 If Y remains constant, r has to to r1 such that Ma and Md = Ms again. A (Y0,r0) LM curve shifts upward to restore equilibrium 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y Assumption: An autonomous in Md or in Ms (not caused by changes in r or Y) r LM0 LM2 A(Y0,r0) Md < M s D (Y2,r0) LM curve shifts rightward or downward E (Y0,r2) 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y Q6.4: Derive from four-quadrant diagrams, the change in the LM curve (a) when there is an autonomous rise in Ma. (b) when there is an autonomous fall in Ma. (c) when there is an autonomous rise in Mt. (d) when there is an autonomous fall in Mt. (e) when there is an autonomous rise in Ms. (f) when there is an autonomous fall in Ms. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Q6.5: Fill in the following table. Result Possible causes Rightward (downward) shift of the LM curve Md autonomously Leftward (upward) shift of the LM curve Md autonomously © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Ms autonomously Ms autonomously Equilibrium in Both the Goods Market and Money Market © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Goods market equilibrium and the IS curve r B(J < W) A(J = W) Pt. B lies above pt. A. At pt. B, r J At pt. B, J < W There is an unintended inventory investment. Firms cut production & Y. IS 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y Goods market equilibrium and the IS curve r Pt. C lies below pt. A. At pt. C, r J At pt. C, J > W A(J = W) There is an unintended inventory disinvestment. Firms raise production & Y. C(J > W) IS 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y Money market equilibrium and the LM curve r Pt. B lies above pt. A. At pt. B, r Ma At pt. B, Md < Ms B (Md < Ms) A (Md=Ms) With excess money balance, people buy bonds to earn interest. Bond price r LM 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y Money market equilibrium and the LM curve r LM With excess money demand, people sell bonds for liquidity. Bond price r A (Md=Ms) C( 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Pt. C lies below pt. A. At pt. C, r Ma At pt. C, Md > Ms Md > M s) Y Adjustment towards twin equilibrium 1. Whenever a point is not on the IS curve, Y will change until it reaches the IS curve. 2. Whenever a point is not on the LM curve, r will change until it reaches the LM curve. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Adjustment towards twin equilibrium r J<W Y Md<Ms r LM J>W Y Md<Ms r J<W Y Md>Ms r 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 J>W Y Md>Ms r IS Y Change in Equilibrium Caused by an Autonomous Change in Injection or Withdrawal © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Transmission mechanism: r LM0 Autonomous J or W IS curve shifts rightward r1 As J > W Y W & Mt Md > Ms r Ma & J r0 Until both markets restore equil. IS1 IS0 0 Y0 Y1 Y’ Y Crowding-out effect © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Q6.6: When J < W, both income and interest rate fall. Describe the transmission mechanism. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Change in Equilibrium Caused by an Autonomous Change in Money Demand or Money Supply © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 r Transmission Mechanism: LM1 Autonomous Md or Ms LM0 LM curve shifts leftward r1 As Md > Ms r Ma & J r0 J < W Y W & Mt IS0 0 Y1 Y0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Y Until both markets restore equil. Q6.7: When Md < Ms, income rises and interest rate falls. Describe the transmission mechanism. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Q6.8: (a) Suppose there exist an autonomous increase in J and an autonomous increase in Ms. Predict the change in Y and r with the aid of an IS-LM diagram. (b) Suppose there exist an autonomous increase in W and an autonomous increase in Ms. Predict the change in Y and r with the aid of an IS-LM diagram. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Mathematical derivation of the IS-LM equilibrium 1. Mathematical derivation of the IS curve In a four sector economy, E=C+I+G+X–M where C = cYd+C*; Yd= Y-tY-T*+qY+Q*; I = br+I*+iY; G= G*; X = X*; M = mY+M* © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Mathematical derivation of equil. income & multiplier 1. Mathematical derivation of the IS curve Equation of IS curve: Y = E = C+I+G+X-M Y = cYd+C* +br+I*+iY + G* +X*-mY-M* Y = c(Y-tY-T*+qY+Q*)+C* +br+I*+iY +G*+X*-mY-M* (1–c-i+ct-cq+m)•Y = C*+ I*+ G*+ X*-M*-cT*+cQ* +br r= 1 - c - i ct - cq m b (C * I * G * X * M * cT * cQ*) (1) Y b © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 2. Mathematical derivation of the LM curve Given Md = Mt + Ma; Ms = M1/P where Mt = dY & Ma = er + Ma* Equation of a LM curve: Md = Mt + Ma = Ms dY + er +Ma* = M1/P er = -dY + (M1/P – Ma*) d (M1/P Ma*) Y r= e e © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 (2) Sub. equation (1) into (2), the equil. income can be found. =A* d (M1/P Ma*) 1 - c - i ct - cq m (C * I * G * X * M * cT * cQ*) Y Y e e b b 1 - c - i ct - cq m Y b d e (1 - c - i ct - cq m)e bd Y A* Y A* be Y 1 (1 - c - i ct - cq m) bd/e © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 b b A* (M1/P - Ma*) (M1/P - Ma*) e e 1 (1 - c - i ct - cq m)e/b d ( M1 P Ma*) IS-LM multiplier 1 (1 - c - i ct - cq m) bd e Note: As b<0, d>0 and e<0 bd/e>0 IS-LM multiplier is smaller than Y-E multiplier, because When there is a rise in autonomous E, Y With money market, Y Mt & disturb money market As Md > Ms, r and crowds out private investment Overall in equilibrium income is smaller. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Correcting Misconceptions: 1. The IS curve represents situations with I = S. 2. Whenever J or W, the IS curve shifts rightward or upward. 3. Whenever Md or Ms, the LM curve shifts leftward or upward. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005