Political Framework
of Cooperation in the Arctic Region
Key questions:
1. The Arctic region under transition
2. Future scenarios for Northern
Europe, Arctic region and Russia
The Arctic region under
transition
• Arctic region is still under construction. In a
narrow context, it consists of 5 polar countries
(the Arctic-5 group). In a broader context, it
unites 8 countries of the Arctic Council (AC) plus
other interested participants – EU, NATO.
The Arctic region under
transition
• We can also include the third interested group of
countries – China, Japan, United Kingdom, etc.
• But the main players are USA, Canada, Russia,
Norway and Denmark.
The Arctic region under
transition
• The Arctic region has become subject to
territorial disputes of the littoral states, the
majority of which are members of the
Northern Dimension initiative, including the
Russian Federation.
• However, only a part of the enormous
Arctic space is institutionally covered by
the Northern Dimension networks, with the
US and Canada pursuing their own Arctic
strategies.
The role of the Arctic Council
• The political role of the Arctic Council is
rather small. It does not pretend to solve
urgent political issues or to address
territorial disputes.
• At the same time the Arctic Council has a
strong position in question like nature
protection, rights of indigenous people,
etc.
The Arctic-5 group
• The political role of the Arctic-5 group is
stronger, but it still does not have a formal
status.
• In spring 2008 Greenland hosted the first
international conference of the polar states
– the US, Russia, Canada, Norway and
Denmark. The participants agreed to
consider the region a vulnerable ecological
area, but did not find a common ground on
territorial issues.
The Arctic-5 group
• They sighed in 2008 the Ilulissat
Declaration, which states that international
law and the Law of the Sea is the
foundation for relations in the region.
• In 2010 the 5 Arctic states met again in
Chelsea (Canada), to find a balance
between economical and ecological
interests.
The Arctic region under
transition
• The main problem of the Arctic region – there is
no fundamental international agreement on the
Arctic region. Meanwhile, the current Arctic race
raises a question of a future model of interaction
on the huge Arctic space, its border delimitation,
juridical status, etc.
• The major obstacles – different approaches of
polar states towards the Arctic region, the clash
of their respective interests, and the lack of
mutual confidence as well.
The Arctic region under
transition
• The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea
(1982) is widely recognized by the majority of
polar states (with the exception of the USA).
• As a result, the polar states prefer to act
individually, without a regional consensus. They
also prefer to stress the importance of the Arctic
region in terms of national security
• Politization of problems
• Militarization of the region
• Revival of cold war perceptions
The Arctic region under
transition
• However, good news is that some polar states
recently signed bilateral agreements (CanadaDenmark, Russia-Norway).
• In April 2010 Russia and Norway signed an
agreement on border delimitation in the Barents
Sea.
The Arctic region under
transition
• The problems of the Arctic region require a
certain “desecuritization”. The term
“desecuritization” refers to the experts
from the Copenhagen school of
international relations (Barry Buzan, Ole
Waever).
• Only if interested states stop to regard
every issue of the Arctic agenda a security
issue, they can succeed in establishing a
multilateral dialog on Arctic issues.
The Arctic region under
transition
• The Arctic region has a considerable potential of
crude hydrocarbons: oil (about 7% of world
reserves) and gas (about 26% of world
reserves). At the same time, the Arctic ice is
melting faster than expected before (40% during
a period from 1970 till 2007).
The Arctic region under
transition
• On the one hand, polar states cannot
agree on division of the outer borders of
the continental shelf.
• On the other hand, development of
transport networks (cross-polar flights,
Northern Sea Route), nature protection,
fishing industry in the Arctic region seam
to be not less important than oil and gas
extraction.
The Arctic region under
transition
Russia’s role in the Arctic region
• The geological and
geophysical
exploration maturity of
the RF continental
shelf as regards the
number of drilled
wells and seismic grid
spacing is to date
tens and hundreds
times poorer than that
in Norway, Denmark,
Brazil, etc.
Russian expedition-2007
• The starting point – Russian polar
expedition in 2007, which provoked a wide
international response.
Russia’s flag on the North Pole
The Russian polar expedition in 2007
• The Russian expedition had a challenging task –
to prove that the Lomonosov and AlphaMendeleev Arctic Ridges were part of the
Eurasian continental shelf, i.e. the continuation
of the Siberian Platform. Moscow was
determined to prove this case in the UN expert
commissions.
• In case of success, Russia could extend its
continental shelf borders up to 1.2 million km
and thus take control over large deposits of oil
and gas.
Reaction of other Arctic states
• “This isn't the 15th century. You can't go
around the world and just plant flags and
say, we're claiming this territory”.
• The Canadian foreign minister, Peter
MacKay
• “The first principle of Arctic sovereignty is:
use it or lose it”
• Prime Minister Stephen Harper
Shall we expect an Arctic race for
natural resources and territories…
Or the polar states will eventually come
to a common ground?
Militarization of the Arctic region
• Since 2007 the majority of the polar countries
have announced plans to deploy limited military
forces in the Arctic region to defend zone of their
economic interests.
• In the meantime NATO has also announced its
interests in the security sphere of the Arctic
region. In January 2009 in Reykjavik the North
Atlantic officials held a seminar on security
threats in the Arctic space.
• The EU officials unexpectedly used the rhetoric
of the cold war and strongly criticized Russia for
its Arctic endeavors.
Militarization of the Arctic region
• In March 2008 the
High representative
for the CFSP of the
EU Javier Solana
acknowledged that
European countries
should be prepared
for a conflict with
Russia over the Arctic
energy resources.
Militarization of the Arctic region
• In February 2009 the Nordic Council
announced plans to form Nordic Task
forces with a mission of monitoring the
situation in the Arctic region and
performing crisis management, air
surveillance and satellite cooperation.
Militarization of the Arctic region
• Former Norwegian foreign minister
Thorvald Stoltenberg spoke in favor of
armed forces capable of protecting the
interests of the Nordic Council member
states in northern territories.
• As expected, troops from Sweden, Norway
and Denmark will become the core
element of the future task forces.
Russia’s Arctic strategy
• At the Russian Security Council meeting in
September 2008 President Medvedev set
the task to transform the Arctic region into
Russia’s resource base and delimitate its
continental shelf borders.
• At the same session The Basis of Russia’s
National Policy in the Arctic Region for the
Period up to 2020 and in the Longer Term
were adopted as a strategy that would
shape Russia’s policy in the Arctic region.
Russia’s Arctic strategy
• But the economic recession has
suspended the realization of the Russian
ambitious plans.
• The Russian application to a UN
committee about shelf delimitation has
been postponed till 2011-2012, geological
research of the Arctic region has been
frozen, and the creation of the Russian
Arctic security forces was put in question.
Europe with a strong efficient
center (Brussels)
Role of Northern Europe
Role of Russia in the
North-European region
• In this model Northern
Europe and the Baltic • Russia plays the role
countries stay in the
of external partner
periphery of
(outsider), which can
European politics
be member of some
(semi-insiders);
preferential treaties
integration dominates
(close-outsider)
over regionalization
Europe with influential regional centers
(Paris, Berlin, London, Stockholm, Warsaw)
Role of Northern Europe
• Northern Europe will
maintain its specific
character and
develop “Nordic
cooperation” (semiinsider vs. semioutsider);
regionalization
dominates over
integration.
Role of Russia in the
North-European region
• Russia is an external
force, but plays a
significant role in
regional projects
(semi-outsider)
Competition among Northern, Eastern and
Arctic dimensions (role of Brussels is
insufficient)
Role of Northern Europe
• A possible result is a
merger of dimensions
with a further
consolidation of the
Nordic countries and
the Baltic states. A
Baltic Union can be
established to be in
charge of economic
integration and
security threats.
Role of Russia in the
North-European region
• Russia will eventually
leave the Northern
Dimension and
remain an external
partner of the Baltic
Union; cross-border
cooperation between
Russia, Norway and
Canada within the
Arctic dimension.
Europe as a zone of conflict
Role of Northern Europe
• Europe is split over
the Arctic resources.
Northern countries
create a new military
alliance to secure
their economic
interests. Bilateral
relations dominate
over regionalization.
Role of Russia in the
North-European region
• Possible participation
of Russia in conflicts
over the Arctic
resources.
Thank you for attention!