th
Alan Journet alanjournet@gmail.com
/ 541-301-4107
Professor emeritus,
Southeast Missouri State University
Now living in Applegate Valley
Co-Facilitator http://socan.info
For ppt: http://socan.info
 Projects  Presentation Project  Scroll down to ‘SOCAN Presentations Delivered’

Global Temperatures 1880 – 2012 cf 1951-1980
1998
2012
1.3⁰F
GISS = Goddard Institute for
Space Studies http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif

U.S. Temperatures 1880 – 2011
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
July 2012 was hottest month in contiguous US since record-keeping began in 1895
0.9
Departure from
1951- 1980 mean
1.8
During 2012 - 19 states set heat records:
34,008 weather stations recorded record highs
6,664 weather stations recorded record lows http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.D.gif
2012 - Continental
2.7
U.S. 1.03
⁰ F above previous record.
1.8
0.9
0
⁰F

Projected Temperature Trends in
Pacific Northwest to 2100
Projections
Unknown
Unmanageable
Historic Data Unavoidable http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach1scenarios642.pdf

1900
1961-1990
Ave – 50.03
Ave – 50.03
0
F
F
Winter Ave – 38.10
Winter Ave – 38.10
0
0
F
0
F
F
F
2000 2099
Rogue Valley Temperature History and Projections

compared to 1961-1990 average
2035-2045
Average
1.5 – 4.0
⁰ F
2075-2085
Average
4.3 -8.2
⁰ F
Winter
1– 3.5
⁰ F
Summer
1 – 6.0
⁰ F
August 1.3 – 7.8
⁰ F
Winter
3.4 -6.3
⁰ F
Summer
5.6 – 11.8
⁰ F
August 6.7 – 16.8
⁰ F

In addition to averages – extremes are important….
Projected Extreme 1 in 20 year Heat Events by 2080-2099
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

o
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

High
Emissions Scenarios
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

25% Reduction
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1930s
Average annual snowfall at Crater Lake HQ
1940s y = -24,595x + 639,93
1950s 1960s 1970s
From when data were first collected
1980s 1990s 2000s
N. California 1950 - 2000
Below 7500’ 13% decline
Above 7500’ 12% increase
Applegate Lake
Source: Crater Lake National Park

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

For Grapes
Jackson County Irrigation Ditches are critical for agricultural productivity and Pears

2
Increasing CO
2 may be positive, but increasing temp is negative
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Historical Apr – Oct
Average 1961-1990
Projected Range for
2035 - 2045
Projected Range for
2075 - 2085
BC
BC
BC
A
I
I
I
I
BC
I – Gamay Noir
BC
BC
A
BC A
I – Muscat
BC A
A http://www.sou.edu/envirostudies/gjones_docs/GJones%20Climate%20Change%20Geoscience
%20Canada.pdf

From Interstate 5 –
Saturday July 27 th
Wolf Creek Area
North of Grants Pass
Medford Mail Tribune – Glendale Fire July 29 th
This could be worst fire season in 10 years

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

cv http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

1 Elimination of spruce/fir/hemlock forest,
2 Reduction in Douglas fir dominated association,
3 Possible expansion of Ponderosa pine association,
4 Expansion of Oregon oak chapparal association,
5 Expansion of shrubland and grassland.

2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC
Established in 1988 by U.N. Environment Programme and World Meteorological Union. Composed of thousands of atmospheric scientists and climate scientists the world who review literature, evaluate what is happening, and provide consensus summaries. Reported 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, and now 201/2014.
• AR-5 Fifth Assessment Report 2013-2014
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.”
Atmosphere:
“Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850 …. In the Northern Hemisphere,
1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years.”
Likely = 66 – 100%

2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC
“Due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–
2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14]
°C per decade).
“It is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the mid-
20th century.”
Virtually Certain = 99 – 100%
97% of Practicing Climate Scientists agree with 2007 IPCC
– 2009, 2010, 2013 peer-reviewed studies
2008 The National Intelligence Council: National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change to 2030:
Drought, severe weather, flooding and refugees, water and resource shortages.

2000 Global Emissions
• Greenhouse gases released by human activity:
• Carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen.
• Individual Action
B UT
The necessary but insufficient condition
Approximately 75% > 75%
23 X CO
2
296 X CO
2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

What produces carbon emissions locally?**
Good Co, Eugene, OR GHG Inventory http://rvcog.org/cogboard/2011/Dec_14/RVCOG-REA-Final_PPT-121511.pdf

• Reduce energy use – especially when energy is generated by burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas);
• Especially reduce fossil fuel based transportation and electricity generation.
• Reduce, reuse, recycle.
• Individual Action
A Necessary but Insufficient Condision

Let’s think now about the economics of addressing climate change…
Positive =
Cost
Actions here cost us money
Cost in
€ per ton
= $1.4
Increasing CO
2
Mitigation
Actions here save us money
(Negative =
Savings)
Economic Study Undertaken by McKinsey Consulting Firm © 2010

Reducing carbon emissions
Note II - Role of
Technology
Note I –
China = 8.24 Gt
U.S. = 5.8 Gt
Combined 14 Gt
Impact of the Financial Crisis on Carbon Economics © 2010;
Per-Anders Enkvist, Jens Dinkel, Charles Lin, McKinsey & Company

• How would a carbon tax work?
• Levies tax at the point of origin (mine, well, extraction site),
• The annually increasing tax (or fee) would discourage carbon fuels and make carbon-free alternatives more cost-effective and competitive,
• Revenue could be used to promote R&D of alternative fuels or be returned to taxpayers as a dividend,
• Since total emissions are not regulated, effectiveness will depend on the pressures imposed by the tax, and the guess of a ‘correct’ tax to achieve a determined goal.
• It IS a tax….
• But we are all currently paying a tax in our suffering from severe weather, droughts, heat waves, wildfires, water shortages, health consequences.

http://socan.info
Co-Facilitators:
Alan Journet alanjournet@gmail.com
Kathy Conway kathleendconway@gmail.com
MEETINGS: Last Tuesday of the month (except September 17 th )
Special Topic Presentation 6:00 – 6:30 pm
General Meeting: 6:30 – 8:00 pm
Medford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.