Adapting the city
Safeguarding Communities
• All Greater Manchester neighbourhoods will be affected
by a changing climate.
• Some more affected by others: vulnerable communities
disproportionally.
• Consequences of both a changing climate locally and a
changing climate elsewhere.
• Likely impacts include; floods & drought; health &
wellbeing at home and work, disruption, supply and
security of services.
• Long term change: short term action.
Dr Gina Cavan
Summary of Ecocities Research
Dr Kate Ardern
Health & Wellbeing
Dr Angela Coulton Food Security and Supply
Tony Hothersall
Green Infrastructure
Will Horsfall
Flood Management
Dave Morgan
Case Study: Broughton Community Trust
Summary of Ecocities Research
Dr Gina Cavan
Impacts of weather & climate on people and
communities
Floods (55%), storms (14%), cold (12%) and heat (7%) have the greatest
consequences on health & wellbeing in GM

Whilst consequences for heath and wellbeing due to cold are likely to
decrease, flooding and heat consequences are likely to increase

Climate events + health & wellbeing
Percentage
50
40
30
20
10
0
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Frequency of climate events per time period
No. of climate events
60
2001-2009
1971-2000
1961-1990
1930-1960
Type of event
Projected increase in climate hazards
E.g. Heatwaves & flooding
Vulnerability of people & communities
to climate change
• People have different capacity to deal with hazards
• So therefore not everyone is affected to the same extent
• Coping capacity is dependant on:
• Access to information – social networks; language
• Ability to prepare for flooding / heat – resources e.g. insurance
• Capacity to act in the case of emergency – knowledge; ability
• Ability to recover after flooding – resources; physical & mental
strength
Spatial distribution of vulnerability
Poverty & poor health
Diverse, transient communities
• Four principal groups
• High scores of poverty and
diversity components
concentrated around urban
centres
Families with children
High percentage Elderly
• High scores of children
component located in
sub- and peri-urban areas
• High scores of old age
component more scattered
distribution across suburban
areas
Vulnerable communities are more at risk
from hazards
PROPORTION OF CHILDREN
DIVERSITY OF COMMUNITIES
Aspects of vulnerability of
communities and the intensity
of the urban heat island
UHI INTENSITY
UHI INTENSITY
Correlations between vulnerability
and surface water flooding
Principal
components
All areas
susceptible
to flooding
High
susceptibility
PC1: Poverty
0.056*
Ns
PC2: Diversity
0.139***
-0.234***
PC3: Children
-0.099***
-0.059*
PC4: Old age
-0.111***
Ns
Climate hazards, housing and tenure
Factors enhancing vulnerability
e.g. housing and tenure
Percentage of
LSOA in flood
risk area
TENURE
Flood Zone 2
Flood Zone 2
Surface flood
>0.1m
Surface flood
>1.0m
Owneroccupied
ns
ns
Tenure
Social
rented
ns
ns
-0.140*** 0.095***
0.071**
ns
Private
rented
ns
ns
0.181***
-0.068**
Correlations between tenure and
UHI intensity / tenure and flooding
UHI INTENSITY
Factors that reduce risk
Local scale adaptation responses
E.g.
Responses
that address
the physical
environment
Summary: Key messages
• Climate change hazards affect people and communities in
Greater Manchester
• Heat waves & flooding events are likely to increase in the future
• Spatial distribution of vulnerability and reasons for
vulnerability varies
• Poor & diverse communities are the most exposed to risks
(where risk is a function of location, vulnerability, land cover,
housing, etc.)
• Adaptation requires actions e.g. physical environment,
community development, social infrastructure, green infrastructure…
Further information
EcoCities reports:
• Surface water flooding risk to urban communities
• Heat and social vulnerability in Greater Manchester
• Buildings and flooding in Greater Manchester
• Greater Manchester Local Climate Impacts Profile
Spatial portal http://www.ppgis.manchester.ac.uk/ecocities/
Health & Wellbeing
Dr Kate Ardern
Climate change connects to many health outcomes
Some expected impacts will be beneficial but most will be adverse.
Expectations are mainly for changes in frequency or severity of familiar
health risks
Modulating
influences
Human exposures
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Regional weather
changes
• Heat waves
• Extreme weather
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Contamination
pathways
• Transmission
dynamics
• Agroecosystems,
hydrology
• Socioeconomics,
demographics
Health effects
• Temperature-related illness and death
• Extreme weather- related health effects
• Air pollution-related health effects
• Water and food-borne diseases
• Vector-borne and rodent- borne diseases
• Effects of food and water shortages
• Effects of population displacement
Based on Patz et al, 2000
How does climate change affect health?
Climate change undermines the environmental
determinants of health
Without effective responses, climate change will compromise:
Water quality and quantity: Contributing to a doubling of people
living in water-stressed basins by 2050.
Food security: In some African countries, yields from rain-fed
agriculture may halve by 2020.
Control of infectious disease: Increasing population at risk of malaria
in Africa by 170 million by 2030, and at risk of dengue by 2 billion by 2080s.
Protection from disasters: Increasing exposure to coastal flooding by a factor
of 10, and land area in extreme drought by a factor of 10-30.
How does climate change affect health?
The time is now
Deadly heat wave holds firm in Europe
Temperatures throughout Europe continued above normal, as France
reported as many as 3,000 deaths due to the heat
Difference from normal temperatures Aug 3 to Aug 9 2003
3,500 died prematurely
as a result of Europe’s
heat wave in 2003
Source: Climate prediction centre. NOAA
What affects infection/health risks in a drought
period?
Risk of cryptosporidiosis
Lack of dilution of sewage effluent
Opening up of rapid transmission routes between surface and groundwater
through low water table
Heavy rainfall after the drought providing a bolus of contamination
Emergency measures
Little evidence
Changes in behaviour
Washing – scabies, shigellosis
Scalding
Responses to boil water advice
Flourishing
Environment
Vibrant and
Just Society
Healthy ecosystems
Supportive built environments
Healthy &
Sustainable
Communities
Healthy
Environments
Supportive social networks
and cultural values
Sound education and high literacy rates
Strong Public
Health Capacity
Prosperous Economy
Reduced impact of disease and injury
Increased emergency preparedness and response
Reduced pressure on the health care system
Diagram available at Public Health Agency of Canada website {Accessed 3th October 2009}
Environmental Inequalities
Fig 10 Populations living in areas with, in relative terms, the least favourable environmental conditions, 2001-6
Green Space
Greener living environments: lower health inequalities, England
Deaths from circulatory disease
Income group 4 is most deprived
Source: Mitchell & Popham, Lancet 2008
Housing
• EWDs are almost three times higher in the coldest quarter of
housing than in the warmest quarter (21.5% of all EWDs are
attributable to the coldest quarter of housing, because of it being
colder than other housing).
• Children living in cold homes are more than twice as likely to
suffer from a variety of respiratory problems than children living
in warm homes.
• Mental health is negatively affected by fuel poverty and
cold housing for any age group.
• More than 1 in 4 adolescents living in cold housing are at risk of
multiple mental health problems compared to 1 in 20
adolescents who have always lived in warm housing.
• Cold housing increases the level of minor illnesses such as
colds and flu and exacerbates existing conditions such as
arthritis and rheumatism.
Why the NHS? adapt and mitigate
Measuring and understanding the
NHS (England) Carbon footprint
Budget
18 m tonnes carbon dioxide per annum
Energy: heating, lighting, hot water =
22%
Spends about £17 billion per year
on goods & services
Travel: patients, staff, visitors = 18%
Procurement: supply chain activities of
companies producing goods and services
= 60%
Waste
Increasingly costly, environmentally
and financially
Annual budget > £90 billion
Contributes up to 10% of every
regional GDP
Largest employer and estate
in Europe
Employs about 1.3 million
Largest estate in Europe
Employs 5% of UK workforce
Potential reductions
www.sdu.nhs.uk
High quality healthcare…
Exemplar local employer and
contributor to local economy
Business resilience, emergency
preparedness, medium term strategy
Sound business sense with
savings reinvested into
patient care
…within financial and environmental limits
Health system strengthening:
Definition of an essential public health package
Most health risks in next 20-30 years could be averted through:
• Comprehensive assessments of climate risks to health and health systems;
• Integrated environment and health surveillance;
• Delivery of preventive and curative interventions
for identified climate-sensitive public health concerns;
• Preparedness and response to the public health
consequences of extreme weather events;
• Applied research; and
• Strengthening of human and institutional capacities
and inter-sectoral coordination.
What has been done? Health system strengthening
Food Security and Supply
Dr Angela Coulton
Food Security
• UK and global pressures on the food system
• City perspectives and action on food
• Developing Manchester’s response
A Perfect Storm? Pressures on the UK Food System
• Climate change scenarios of 2-4 degrees by 2050– significant
impacts on agricultural productivity in UK and worldwide.
• Increasingly resource intensive diets in developing countries
• Complex, energy-intensive UK food system, heavily reliant on
just-in-time delivery, mainly by road
• Food prices on the rise after decades of decline – affordability of
fresh, healthy food an issue for increasing number of households
• Longstanding lack of connectivity between urban communities
and food production
UK food security policy
UK policy and research focused on:
• Global trade
• Supporting farmers
• Citizens as “consumers”
Foresight.The Future of Food and Farming (2011)
The role of cities in food security
• Little consideration of the role of cities in food policy
• Urban food planning a neglected but emerging area
• Leading Sustainable Food Cities: Toronto, Malmo, New York,
Manchester?
Manchester’s Food security
• Availability
– Extreme weather risks to supply, limited range
of ways to access fresh, healthy food
• Affordability
– Low income households spend higher % of
income on food
• Connectivity
– Health, environment and economy linkages,
urban/rural connectivity, urban production.
Green Infrastructure
Tony Hothersall
Red Rose Forest
tony@redroseforest.co.uk
What is Green Infrastructure?
Green infrastructure is a term used to refer to the living network of green spaces,
water and other environmental features in both urban and rural areas. It is often
used in an urban context to cover benefits provided by trees, parks, gardens, road verges,
allotments, cemeteries, woodlands, rivers and wetlands.
Green infrastructure is also relevant in a rural context, where it might refer to the use of
farmland, woodland, wetlands or other natural features to provide services such as flood
protection, carbon storage or water purification. Green infrastructure maintains critical
ecological links between town and country.
Around the country local partnerships are seeking to use green infrastructure to drive
economic growth and regeneration and improve public health, wellbeing and
quality of life. It can also support biodiversity and the functioning of natural
systems such as rivers and flood plains and help reduce the negative impacts of
climate change.
Natural Environment White Paper 2011
Why is Green Infrastructure important?
GI provides benefits through its function/services;
Tourism
Climate
Change
Adaptation
&
Mitigation
Flood
Alleviation
and Water
Management
Recreation
and Leisure
Land and
Biodiversity
Quality of
Place
Economic
Benefits of Green
Infrastructure
Products
from the
Land
Labour
Productivity
Land and
Property
Values
Health and
Well-being
Economic
Growth and
Investment
Likely Impacts of Climate Change on GI
• Biodiversity – wildfires, drought, alterations to season length, pressure on
species at edge of their range, invasives/pests and diseases
• Green space/public realm – longer growing seasons, stressed through
drought/flooding/heat, greater public use and therefore cost and benefits!
• Trees and Woodlands – pests, diseases, windthrow (“unseasonal” wet and
windy conditions), stress on some existing species with increased productivity
for others .e.g more beech less oak?
• Mosslands – drying out and wildfires, species loss and increased use causing
erosion, loss of habitat and release of stored carbon
How can we adapt to these impacts?
• Biodiversity – Enhance networks to enable species migration…..make landscapes
more permeable for species movement-corridors and stepping stones
• Green space – adjust species and alter management (e.g use drought resistant/deep
rooted species and then water if needed), may need more hard surfaces for extra use but
retain permeability
• Street trees – use/develop drought and pest resistant varieties….. planting
technique
to cope with both drought and excess water conditions!
• Woodlands – create linkages between woods, enlarge,
use continuous forestry cover
and adjust species mix if needed
• Mosslands – rewet where possible and retain seasonal water………reduce other
impacts (e.g scrub/invasives)
Green Infrastructure’s role in helping us adapt
• Managing high temperatures…..increasing green cover by 10%
could keep
surface temperatures to current level until 2100? Why……..2003 heat wave in Europe
claimed 52,000 lives.
• Managing surface water……..10% increase in green cover could reduce
runoff in
extreme events by 14%....SUDS. Retention of water supply e.g SCAMP
• Managing flooding………use GI for flood basin protection…..big SUDS
• Reducing soil erosion……use GI to preserve fertility and reducing siltation
• Managing visitor pressure……..meet demand for outdoor leisure closer to
home…. less travel with a more attractive and healthier environment
Also mitigation benefits…………………
GI in Greater Manchester
• GMGI Framework and action plan……and GI planning at different levels
• Red Rose and Pennine Edge Forest Partnerships……long established
• Physical delivery by wide range of organisations…….. Mossland
restoration, river valleys, urban green spaces, Newlands, Green Streets, green roofs,
• Strengthening the knowledge base………GRaBS, EcoCities, i-trees, GM Tree
Audit and potential valuation of GM’s GI/Ecosystem services?
• Securing investment………for both GI enhancement and
management
• Long term time horizon but action needed now……e.g need to plant street
trees now to cool our towns and cities in 20 years time!
www.ginw.co.uk/climatechange/
Flood Management
Will Horsfall
Salford City Council
Lower Broughton, Salford 1946
Lower Broughton, Salford 1946
Importance of flooding to Salford
1866 – flooding of 800 ha of land covered by crowded
tenements, houses and factories
1946 – flooding of 243 ha of land, 5000 residential properties
and 300 industrial properties
Aerial view of Littleton Road Flood Storage Basin
January 2008
Littleton Road Storage Basin put into action for first time,
flooding of Castle Irwell Playing Fields, Lowry Hotel concourse,
Mark Addy Pub and towpaths next to Ordsall Riverside Area
Flood basin in action – January 2008
Lowry Hotel January 2008
Lowry Hotel January 2008
Mark Addy, Salford January 2008
2007 Floods – M50
2007 Floods
Pitt Review – New role for Councils
• Councils should lead on management of local
flood risk
• Build partnerships with relevant bodies
• Mapping flood risk management and drainage assets
• Duty on relevant bodies to share information on
flooding
Pitt Review – now law
2009 Flood Risk Regulations
2010 Floods and Water Management Act
Additional DEFRA Flood Risk Management Funding
Lead Local Flood Risk Authority
Three objectives for the Salford Strategic Flood Forum:
• To provide leadership and direction for the Council’s flood
related work programme in line with the 2010 Floods and Water
Management Act and 2009 Flood Risk Regulations
• To ensure that the various flood and water related work strands
are properly co-ordinated
• To review and report on progress with the implementation of
new duties as Lead Local Flood Risk Authority recommendations
and to take action accordingly
AGMA joint approach to flood risk
• Co-ordinated approach to Strategic Flood Risk Assessments
• Joint AGMA Surface Water Management Plan - £500k
• Joint approach to Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment
• AGMA Flood Risk Management Capacity Study
• New AGMA Flood Risk Management Board
2005 Lower Broughton Flood Risk Assessment
Flood Risk and Development Planning Guidance
Emergency Planning
• Salford Flood Response Group
established 2006
• Became a multi agency group
following completion on the
GM Risk Register
• Customer contact centre project
Resilience Pilot Project
• Need to consider existing as well as new development
• Pilot project – Salford City Council, Environment
Agency & Salford University
• Incentives for householders
• Spike Island and Lower Kersal Climate Change
Action Plan
Case Study: Broughton Community Trust
Dave Morgan
Communities living Sustainably
• A five year programme aimed at changing behaviours
• Community-led
• Partnership-based (Community, Public, Private)
• Big Lottery Funded
• Groundwork Trust Mediated
• 270 Expressions of Interest
• 30 through to second round
• 10 will get up to £1million
Kersal Vale and Spike Island Climate Action Project
2008-10 4 key themes
• Flood Resistance
• Energy Efficiency
• Greening the Neighbourhood
• Education Programmes (waste and transport)
Partners : Chalk NDC, Salford Council, Salford University, Salix Homes,
Environment Agency, etc
Kersal Vale and Spike Island Climate Action Project
Very successful but :
“It is evident that the residents…face multiple deprivation….if this project
is to have success….it needs to understand these issues and work with
other local agencies….so that climate change becomes embedded into
service delivery”
• Levels of successful engagement relatively limited
• Active participation fell short of targets set
• Many residents not interested in climate change
• Only limited evidence that projects are affecting change in behaviour
Communities living Sustainably
• People resent being told what to do
• They don’t like being preached at
• They are pre-occupied with other complex issues
• They suspect a “do as I say, not as I do” attitude
Communities living Sustainably
The Broughton Trust Perspective : What works?
• Employing local people as champions and influencers
• Creating training opportunities linked to jobs
• Being there whatever and whenever
• Treating people with respect
• Starting from where residents are ie inside the community
Communities living Sustainably
The Broughton Trust Perspective : Evidence
• Lowest participation rate in adult learning in the city 2003
• Highest participation rate in adult learning in the city 2012
• Waiting lists in most subject areas, vocational and non-vocational
• Involving 1 in 40 of the East Salford’s population of around 40000
• Everything linked through simple pathways
• Barriers to Learning addressed (eg childcare)
• Pathways leading to employment and financial autonomy
Communities living Sustainably
What we want to do over five years :
• Employ Community Green Champions
• Fund community-based, community-led projects
• Set up a Co-op for food growing and amenity management
• Co-fund Partnership projects
• Organise a Valley Volunteering Programme
• Promote two Big Green Valley Festivals
The Broughton Trust
Humphrey Booth Centre
Heath Avenue
Lower Broughton
Salford
M7 1NY
0161 831 9807
www.thebroughtontrust.org.uk
Charity No. 1089038
Adapting the city