Suggestions for an NTA Satellite, an SNA Point of View By Dr. Jan W. van Tongeren , International Consultant on SNA and Macro Accounting for Policy Analysis, Delft, Netherlands, email: jwvtongeren@gmail.com 1 Themes dealt with I. Concepts of SNA analysis II. Concepts of NTA analysis III. Review of NTA concepts IV. NTA compilation 2 I. SNA analysis 3 2010 Netherlands SNA Data 4 Policy analyses supported by SNA accounts and concepts, SUT Production Account Value added -production approach: 𝑌𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑,𝑗 = 𝑃𝑗 − 𝐼𝑗 𝐺𝐷𝑃: 𝑌𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑,𝑛𝑎𝑙 = 𝑗 𝑌𝑗 Generation of Income Account 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 Value added -income approach:𝑌𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑,𝑛𝑎𝑙 = 𝐶𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝑇𝑥𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑,𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝑂𝑠 Product accounts Supply Use balances 𝑃𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝑀 = 𝐼𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝐶𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝐾𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝑋 𝑃𝑛𝑎𝑙 − 𝐼𝑛𝑎𝑙 = 𝐶𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝐾𝑛𝑎𝑙 + (𝑋 − 𝑀) GDP/Value added expenditure approach 𝑌𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑,𝑛𝑎𝑙 = 𝐶𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝐾𝑛𝑎𝑙 + (𝑋 − 𝑀) 5 Policy analyses supported by SNA accounts and concepts, IEA Primary distribution of income account 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑌𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟,𝑗 = 𝐶𝑒𝑗𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 + 𝑇𝑥𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑,𝑗 + 𝑂𝑠 + (𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑗𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 − 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑗 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 (𝐶𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑙 −𝐶𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑙 ) = (𝐶𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑤 −𝐶𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑤 ), same identity holds for 𝑇𝑥𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑 & Prop 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 ) 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 Secondary distribution of income account 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑌𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒,𝑗 = 𝑌𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟,𝑗 + (𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑗𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 − 𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑗 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 (𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑙 − 𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑙 ) = (𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑤 −𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑤 ) 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 ) 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 Use of income account 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑗 = 𝑌𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒,𝑗 − 𝐶𝑗 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑅𝑂𝑊 = 𝑀 − 𝑋 + 𝐶𝐸𝑟𝑜𝑤 − 𝐶𝐸𝑟𝑜𝑤 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 + 𝑇𝑥𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑,𝑟𝑜𝑤 − 𝑇𝑥𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑,𝑟𝑜𝑤 + 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 (𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑤 − 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑤 ) + (𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑤 − 𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑤 ) Capital account 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑟𝑜𝑤 = 𝐾 𝑁𝑙𝑗 = 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑗 + 𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑗𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 − 𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑗 𝑁𝑙𝑛𝑎𝑙 = −𝑁𝑙𝑟𝑜𝑤 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 − 𝐾𝑗 While SNA is a double bookkeeping system, please note that not all items (receipts and 6 expenditures) are used to define major SNA concepts. Only receipts and expenditures of Ce, Prop, Trcur, and Trcap are needed to define 𝑌𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 ; 𝑌𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 ; 𝑆𝑎𝑣 & 𝑁𝑙 II. NTA analysis 7 Analysis supported by NTA Accounts and Concepts SNA Saving 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑛𝑎𝑙 = 𝐶𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝑇𝑥𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑,𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝑂𝑠 + 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑛𝑎𝑙 − 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑛𝑎𝑙 8 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 + 𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑙 − NTA Satellite with 2010 Netherlands data 9 Selection SNA Variables (received and paid) for Use in NTA, NTA balances, general principles NTA Life cycle deficit 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 −[(𝐶𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑙 + 𝑀𝑥) − 𝐶𝑛𝑎𝑙 ] = [𝑂𝑠 ′ + 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 − 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 + 𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 − 𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 − 𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑛𝑎𝑙 ] National saving (𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑛𝑎𝑙 ) using selected items of Prop & Trcur will only remain the same if following condition holds: 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑛𝑜𝑛−𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 − 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑛𝑜𝑛−𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 + 𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑛−𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 − 𝑇𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑛−𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 = 0 This conditional identity could be implemented by identifying for each expenditure a supporting revenue and vice versa for each receipt the expenditure for which it is used By selecting all SNA Prop and Trcur variables, same age profiles of counterpart variables may neutralize impact on age profile of saving 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 Age profile 𝑇𝑥𝑐𝑢𝑟,𝐻𝐻 = 𝑇𝑥𝑐𝑢𝑟,𝐺𝑂𝑉 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 Age profile𝑇𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏,𝐻𝐻 = 𝑇𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏,𝐺𝑂𝑉 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 Age profile 𝑇𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑏𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠,𝐻𝐻 = 𝑇𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑏𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠,𝐺𝑂𝑉 etc. etc. By selecting a limited nr. of Prop and Trcur variables, under identity conditions as formulated, the number of artificially imputed age profiles may be considerably reduced 10 (Tentative) Selection SNA Variables for Use in NTA, practical implementation with 2010 Netherlands data Included: All items in HH sector Included: All items of GOV and NPI sector (related to financing GOV and NPI consumption) However, Excluded: All counterpart of items in HH, NPI and GOV sector Excluded: All items of NFC and FC sectors that have counterparts in NFC and FC sectors In the selection a decision needs to be taken whether revenue or expenditure items should be selected Table 2f Example of ideal data conditions: SNA variables selected for incorporation in NTA, excl. counterpart variables (actual figures) Final consumption expenditure Labour income Net social contributions Social benefits other than social transfers in kind Taxes less subsidies Net non-life insurance premiums Requires more detail to identify counterpart Non-life insurance claims items Miscellaneous current transfers Operating surplus, net Requires more detail to identify counterpart Property income 11 items Saving, net (SNA) Non-financial corporations Receipts Financial corporations General government Households Total economy Rest of the world DisburseDisburseDisburseDisburseDisburseDisburseDisburseReceipts Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts ments ments ments ments ments ments ments 167,065 201,695 5,235 17,360 48,260 5,235 33,194 3,264 2,565 13,956 1,454 1,454 13,956 816 49,707 68,798 132,295 262,655 5,155 328,996 52,463 2,599 439 139,969 105,665 55 210,702 7,003 16,491 333,324 5,427 1,099 141,214 139,969 284 1,529 439 55 105,665 107,721 2,304 248 57,628 22 132,295 133,447 1,995 843 308 11,465 36 13,956 15,828 2,040 168 15,828 13,956 168 2,040 120,806 129,020 12,761 4,547 102,731 102,731 306,297 310,086 195,151 191,362 11,465 111,113 11,139 36 14,053 6,438 3,038 20,155 200,586 434,875 328,996 -212 308 103,229 82,576 70,891 59,207 87,225 10,181 2,565 49,188 NPISH's 11,791 -19,527 39,624 16,688 10,691 408 14 -1,361 46,513 -29,866 III. Review of NTA concepts 12 Social Transfers in kind should not be included in NTA Table 2a HH final Consumption and Social Transfers in kind Disposable income, net Final consumption expenditure Individual consumption expenditure Collective consumption expenditure Before Saving, net, NTA "Adjustment for the change in Social transfers in kind pension Adjusted disposable income, net entitlements" Actual final consumption Actual individual consumption Actual collective consumption Saving, net, NTA 13 General government Receipts Households NPISH's DisburseDisburseDisburseReceipts Receipts ments ments ments 147,538 258,126 3,794 167,065 262,655 5,155 100,392 262,655 5,155 -19,527 -4,529 -1,361 -100,392 105,547 -5,155 47,146 363,673 -1,361 66,673 368,202 66,673 368,202 66,673 -19,527 -4,529 -1,361 Mixed income should be imputed for HH durables, no capital component of mixed income of non-market output (?) Households Table 2b HH durables and mixed income Receipts 14 Disposable income, net, SNA Disposable income, net, NTA Mixed income of owner-occupied dwelling services Mixed income of services of HH durables Mixed income of other non-market products Mixed income for market output Other disposable income Final consumption expenditure, SNA Final consumption expenditure, NTA Consumption of owner-occupied dwelling services Consumption of services of HH durables Minus: consumption of HH durables Consumption of other non-market products Consumption of market products Saving, net, SNA Saving, net, NTA Disbursements 258,126 260,126 5,000 2,000 10,000 17,890 225,236 262,655 260,655 5,000 2,000 -4,000 22,684 234,971 -4,529 -529 Production taxes and subsidies may not be deducted from HH final consumption Table 2c Product taxes and subsidies General government Receipts Final consumption expenditure (in market prices) Taxes less subsidies Taxes on production and imports Taxes on products Other taxes on production Subsidies Subsidies on products Other subsidies on production 15 64,303 7,060 -9196 -3549 -5647 NPISH's DisburseDisburseDisburseReceipts Receipts ments ments ments 167,065 71,363 Households 262,655 5,155 A distinction should be made between pension premiums and benefits of funded and unfunded schemes Table 2d Pension premiums and claims Non-financial corporations Receipts Social contributions and benefits in cash Net social contributions Actual social contributions, pensions Actual social contributions, non-pensions Imputed social contributions Social benefits other than social transfers in kind Social benefits, pensions Social benefits, non-pensions Saving, net, before "Adjustment for the change in pension entitlements" Adjustment for the change in pension entitlements Saving, net, after "Adjustment for the change in pension entitlements" 16 Financial corporations General government Households NPISH's Total economy Rest of the world DisburseDisburseDisburseDisburseDisburseDisburseDisburseReceipts Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts ments ments ments ments ments ments ments 5,235 48,260 87,225 439 47,942 83,109 5,235 318 5,235 4,116 33,194 68,798 32,876 141,214 139,969 47,264 55 47,942 47,264 82,542 83,109 82,542 10,163 10,163 105,665 107,721 32,044 32,876 832 73,621 74,845 1,472 439 10,163 55 105,665 439 55 439 55 -4,529 -1,361 32,044 5,235 318 68,798 49,707 22,069 -19,527 -15,066 49,707 139,969 73,621 15,220 7,003 -19,527 10,691 1,529 678 284 851 2,304 248 46,359 154 -1,361 284 248 -29,712 -154 46,513 -29,866 A distinction should be made between labour income and remittances to/from abroad Table 2e Labour income and remittances Non-financial corporations Receipts Labour abour income Compensation of employees, to/from ROW Current transfers Remittances, to/from ROW 17 Households Rest of the world DisburseDisburseDisburseReceipts Receipts ments ments ments 5,427 1,099 455 1,276 5,427 1,099 1,276 455 Current transfers versus Capital transfers, criteria Capital transfers only occur if an ASSET is transferred Concept of asset may be changed between SNA and satellite accounts (e.g. HH durables, human capital and expenditures on education and health, R&D) Capital transfers may be in CASH and IN-KIND Capital transfers IN-KIND may concern TANGIBLE, INTANGIBLE AND FINANCIAL assets Capital transfers if one of the parties considers the transfer as a capital transfer (e.gh. Development aid based on current GOV budget) For total economy K=Snal + Srow; for sectors K=S + TrCap + Lfin 18 Current transfers versus Capital transfers, examples Transfer of house between parents and children (in-kind) Transfer of funds between parents and children under condition that they 19 purchase a house (cash) Reimbursement by insurance companies for damage to buildings, equipment, infrastructure, caused by fire and adverse weather conditions (cash) Transfer of defense and other equipment between GOV’s (in-kind) Funds provided by GOV’s to GOV’s for building roads and other infrastructure (cash) Transfers between parents and children for purposes of education provided human capital is recognized as asset in satellite accounts Cancellation of debt between GOV’s and between parents and children Large donations by individuals and enterprises to NPI’s (universities, research centers, etc.), presumably for purposes of investment Bequests to children at death of parent (not explicitly mentioned in SNA) IV. NTA compilation 20 NTA Compilation, NTA Manual Adjust micro data by age groups based on HH related surveys to Macro (SNA) Totals 21 NTA Compilation, Conventional SNA compilation Available data are incomplete; in annual compilation basic data 22 cover approximately 50% of SNA variables SNA structures of benchmark compilation (e.g. i-o coefficients) are used to complete needed information to estimate variables for which no basic data are available SNA identities (e.g. supply-use identities, IEA distribution of receipts and expenditures) are used to arrive at consistent estimates Including new micro HH data by ages implies that SNA compilation would need to be revised; estimates of Macro Totals would be changed if this information had been available at the time of the SNA compilation NTA Compilation, Bayesian Compilation in SNA and Satellite Frameworks Formalization of Bayesian estimation approach manually used in conventional national accounts compilation Bayesian estimation approach uses four inputs: Basic data of selected variables: age structure micro data, SNA macro estimates Ratios: age structure composition of micro HH data, SNA coefficients: i-o coefficients, tax ratios, structure of composition of HH disposable income SNA identities, identities between Macro-totals and sum of micro HH data Prior reliabilities (standard deviations) of basic data on variables and ratios Results of Bayesian estimation: Posterior (adjusted) Bayesian estimates of all variables and ratios that are consistent, Posterior standard deviations of all variables and ratios 23