Original SAFER Methodologies Schematic
Methods (a)
Forcing climatic factors
Biodiversity & water quality
Socio/Econ/Cult state
Social perception
|
AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Prediction of
impacts on
ecosystem
Methods
(b)
Risk & Perception
Analysis
Climate, Limnological & Ecological history
Socio/Econ/Cult history
PAST
Human
Occupation
Climatic projections
Economic & land use scenarios
PRESENT
FUTURE
(2100)
Methods
(c)
Tier 1 Modeling (in general)
• “Tier 1” models (vocabulary from the Natural Capital Group) are vastly
simplified, first-approximation models (usually simple indices) characterizing
water, ecosystem or socioeconomic states throughout an area (each would be
mapped).
– Example 1 (climate): A tier 1 climatic model would be the annual water yield for a land area,
which is a function of precipitation and evapotranspiration
– Example 2 (biodiversity): A tier 1 biodiversity model would be some combination of habitat
quality and habitat rarity indices.
– Example 3 (socioeconomic: A tier 1 tourism services model would be a map summarizing
tourism opportunities along with accessibility and environmental attributes (i.e., some form of
“potential tourism” index)
• Note: First, we may want to map simpler socioeconomic indices related to population, income,
education, etc.—yes(??)
•
•
Limitations: (1) Causes and effects are not connected; (2) Analysis typically
only possible at the annual time scale, so shorter-term (e.g., seasonal)
processes are averaged.
Tier 1 modeling should be do-able as team science in the short term. For
example, small student teams could easily GIS analyses for multiple sites.
Tier 2 Modeling (in general)
• “Tier 2” models (vocabulary from the Natural Capital Group) are more
details and capable of simulating distributed processes and mechanisms in
physical, ecological and socioeconomic systems.
– Example 1 (climate): A tier 2 climatic model would be a distributed parameter
hydrologic model (e.g., SWAT, WEAP, VIC)
– Example 2 (biodiversity): A tier 2 biodiversity model might involve might include a
keystone species population model, or a model capable of addressing the food web and
multiple populations
– Example 3 (socioeconomic): A tier 2 tourism services might predict annual visitor-days
or dollars based on environmental attributes, infrastructure, amenities, distance from
population centers, and location relative to potential substitute sites.
• Limitations: Tier 2 models require substantially more input parameters
than do Tier 1 models, and take longer to learn how to use effectively
• Tier 2 modeling will typically require prolonged efforts by graduate
students, perhaps as key components of their dissertation work, and may
be integrated later with comparable modeling studies by other students.
Methods (a)—SAFER
• Forcing climatic factors:
– Map climate surfaces (temp, precip)
– From climate surfaces and soil surveys, map water
yield, Budyko dryness, and water retention indices
• Socio/Econ/Cult State
– Map various socioeconomic indices (population
density, land ownership, land use, etc.)
• Cultural/spiritual indices? Maybe deal with in terms of
peoples’ perceptions?
• Biodiversity and water quality:
– Map habitat quality (related to water quality), habitat
rarity indices—is this feasible for all our sites?
• Identify correlations between various indices
Methods (c)—SAFER
• For 2030, 2050, 2100
– Generate forecasts of climate surfaces
• Using regional modeling products (if they exist)
• If not, how? Downscale available GCM outputs?
– Use forecasts to generate new hydro/climate
indices
– Propose population and LULC scenarios
– Generate habitat/ecosystem quality and rarity maps
• Quantify risk in terms of ecosystem-related
indices changes in habitat quality and rarity
maps