Reducing Risks by
Setting Measurable
Targets
Footprint
Dr. Mathis Wackernagel
www.FootprintNetwork.org
Metabolism like a cow
Bioproductive Segments
Bioproductive segments
22%
67%
LowProductivity
Ocean
4%
Biologically
Productive
Ocean
18%
Biologically
Productive Land
11%
Deserts, Ice Caps
and Barren Land
Personal planetoid
Global average availability of bioproductive
Land + Sea = 1.9 global hectares/person
Footprint components
Fossil Fuel Built-up Waste
Food
absorption
Fibres
Global Footprint Accounts
(in global hectares/person, 1999 data)
Global Footprint
Ecological Demand (Ecological Footprint)
Footprint Areas for:
Demand
Growing Crops
0.53
Exceeds
Grazing Animals
0.12
Settlements & infrastructure
0.10
Producing timber & fuelwood 0.33
Absorbing excess CO2
1.07
Harvesting Fish
0.14
Total Global Demand
2.29
Ecological Supply (Biocapacity)
Biocapacity Areas:
Crop land
0.53
Supply
Grazing land
0.27
By
Built-up area
0.10
Forest
0.86
Fishing Grounds
0.14
20%
>
Total Global Supply
1.90
1.40
# of Earths used
1.20
Footprint time series
Footprint time series
1.00
0.80
# of Earths available,
representing the total
capacity of the biosphere
0.60
# of Earths used by humanity
0.40
0.20
0.00
61
9
1
64
9
1
67
9
1
70
9
1
73
9
1
76
9
1
79
9
1
82
9
1
85
9
1
88
9
1
91
9
1
94
9
1
97
9
1
Year
Target
Median Scenario (UN/IPCC/FAO)
2
number of planets
total EF
fossil EF
component
1
FAO/UN
median EF for
future
0
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2
EF Used for Scenario Analysis
past Footprint
FAO/UN median EF for future
1
"E.O. Wilson" scenario
Mid century scenario
"Brundtland" scenario
0
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
[planet years]
Ecological Debt in 4 Scenarios
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
actual debt (2000)
total debt for "Wilson"
scenario
total debt for "mid
century" scenario
total debt for
"Brundtland" scenario
debt through 2050 for
BAU scenario
“Shrink & Share” by Region
2
global past
ASIA-PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICA
number of planets
WESTERN EUROPE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN
EUROPE
1
LATIN AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST AND
CENTRAL ASIA
0
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Implications for continents?
180%
ASIA-PACIFIC
160%
NORTH AMERICA
140%
WESTERN EUROPE
120%
100%
CENTRAL AND EASTERN
EUROPE
80%
LATIN AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN
60%
AFRICA
40%
MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL
ASIA
20%
0%
2000
OR GLOBAL
WORLD
OVERALL TREND
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
What Does this Open up?
• Accounting leads to accountability
• Targets informed by risks associated with
different scenarios
• 2 simple choices: integrating climate change
and biocapacity
• Performance measure
Cat on Roman foot
Mathis@FootprintNetwork.org
www.FootprintNetwork.org