An Assessment of the Labor Market, Income, Health, Social, Civic and Fiscal Consequences of Dropping Out of High School: Findings for Massachusetts and Bristol County Adults in the 21st Century Andrew Sum Ishwar Khatiwada Joseph McLaughlin Sheila Palma Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Boston, Massachusetts Recent Findings on Four Year, On-Time High School Graduation Rates, College Attendance Rates, and Four Year College Attendance Rates for High School Students in MA, Selected School Districts Across the State and Districts in Bristol County Measuring on-time graduation rates; four year and five year rates Variations in on-time graduation rates across school districts, gender, and race-ethnic groups College attendance plans and types of colleges attended by four year graduates of public schools in Massachusetts and Bristol County. Why We Should Care About High School Dropout Problems in Massachusetts and Bristol County There are serious negative labor market and income problems for dropouts themselves over their working lives; substantially reduced employment and earnings opportunities The dropout population reduces the future size and quality of the state’s resident labor force, thereby limiting our economic growth potential Adverse effects on two parent family formation and the economic, social, and physical well-being of their children Negative impacts on family poverty and income inequality Reduced civic engagement and participation in civic affairs Increased incarceration rates among young dropouts Adverse fiscal consequences of dropouts for local, state, and federal budgets The Types of Measures Included in Our Study of the Economic and Social Consequences of Failing to Graduate from High School Labor market outcomes (employment and earnings on a monthly, annual, lifetime basis) Income outcomes (poverty, near poverty, low income status) Health outcomes (health status, health insurance coverage, disability status) Family outcomes (marriage rates, out-of-wedlock childbearing, well-being of children) Civic outcomes (voting behavior, volunteerism) Criminal justice outcomes (Incarceration rates + costs) Fiscal outcomes in terms of taxes paid and cash and in-kind benefits received Recent Findings on Four Year Graduation Rates and College Attendance Rates in Massachusetts and Bristol County Four-year, on-time graduation rates for the class of 2006 across states Comparisons of four-year graduation rates in Massachusetts and substate areas in 2006 and 2007 Comparisons of four-year graduation rates across cities in Massachusetts and Bristol County in 2007 Comparisons of four-year graduation rates across gender and race-ethnic groups in Massachusetts and substate areas Comparisons of college attendance rates and four year college attendance rates for the expected graduating class of 2007 Ranking of Four-Year Cohort Graduation Rates in the Seven States That Have Released Graduation Rates Based on the National Governors Association's Compact Rate 90.0 79.9 79.0 80.0 76.8 76.5 71.0 68.1 70.0 64.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 (2 Y or k N ew a C ar ol in or id Fl 00 5) 00 6) (2 (2 a ia n In d A ri zo na 00 6) (2 00 6) 00 4) (2 20 06 ) t( V er m on a N or th M as sa ch us et t s (2 00 6) 0.0 Four-Year Cohort Graduation Rates in the Selected School Districts in Massachusetts, 2007 120 100 98.9 96.4 95.7 95.4 80 69.8 69.0 68.5 67.9 58.2 60 57.9 54.1 53.8 40.8 40 20 w re nc e La ng fie ld er Sp ri R iv st on Bo Fa ll N ew Be df or d on nn Br oc kt Ly w el l Lo an sf ie ld W or ce st er M st on Ea W C es on to co n rd -C ar lis le 0 Recent Cohort Graduation Rates of High School Students in Massachusetts and in Selected Districts of Bristol County, 2006 and 2007 School Massachusetts Total Attleboro Bristol-Plymouth Voc. Tech Dartmouth Dighton-Rehoboth Easton Fairhaven Fall River Freetown-Lakeville Mansfield New Bedford North Attleborough Norton Seekonk Somerset Swansea Taunton Westport 2007 4-Year 80.9 74.8 97.1 90.8 89.7 95.7 78.7 54.1 88.2 95.4 58.2 90.1 87.0 90.6 95.0 82.8 77.0 82.5 2006 4-Year 79.9 71.3 93.1 85.6 86.0 95.8 89.2 54.2 82.1 93.0 57.4 85.2 78.5 92.5 86.3 85.7 70.5 69.4 2006 5-Year 82.7 74.5 93.1 86.8 87.2 96.2 89.8 56.8 83.4 93.0 60.5 86.9 80.4 93.5 86.7 85.7 71.2 71.0 Top Five and Bottom Five 4-Year Cohort Graduation Rates for Selected Districts in Bristol County, Class of 2007 120.0 100.0 97.1 95.7 95.4 95.0 90.8 78.7 % 80.0 77.0 74.8 58.2 60.0 54.1 40.0 20.0 Br ist ol -P ly un t Ta ve n Fa ir ha an sf ie ld So m er se t D ar tm ou th M st on Ea on A ttl eb or N o ew Be df or d Fa ll R iv er m ou th V oc .T ec h 0.0 Four-Year Cohort Graduation Rates for All Students and by Gender and Race-Ethnic Group, Massachusetts and Boston, Class of 2007 (A) Gender/ Race-Ethnic Group All Male Female Black Asian Hispanic White Massachusetts 80.9 77.8 84.1 65.2 83.7 58.5 86.4 Gender Gaps in Four-Year Cohort Graduation Rates in Selected Affluent School Districts and Larger School Districts in Massachusetts, 2006 (A) (B) (C) Male 4-Year Graduation Rate Female 4-Year Graduation Rate Males - Females Weston Chelmsford Concord 98.6 95.5 93.8 98.8 98.6 98.4 -0.2 -3.1 -4.6 Brockton Worcester Lynn Boston New Bedford Fall River Springfield Lawrence 64.7 63.9 57.5 52.3 51.2 50.6 45.0 34.2 76.1 70.6 72.5 65.8 63.4 57.6 57.7 48.0 -11.4 -6.7 -15.0 -13.5 -12.2 -7.0 -12.7 -13.8 School District Gender Gaps in Four-Year Cohort Graduation Rates in Selected School Districts in Bristol County, 2007 School Attleboro Bristol-Plymouth Voc. Tech Dartmouth Dighton-Rehoboth Easton Fairhaven Fall River Freetown-Lakeville Mansfield New Bedford North Attleborough Norton Seekonk Somerset Swansea Taunton Westport Female 79.2 97.2 93.2 87.9 97.0 84.4 62.9 91.3 95.1 69.1 91.5 91.8 89.1 96.6 89.6 80.8 87.9 Male 69.9 96.9 88.8 91.5 94.2 71.2 45.5 85.1 95.7 46.2 88.8 81.8 91.8 93.8 77.7 73.0 76.8 Male Female -9.3 -0.3 -4.4 3.6 -2.8 -13.2 -17.4 -6.2 0.6 -22.9 -2.7 -10.0 2.7 -2.8 -11.9 -7.8 -11.1 4-Year Cohort Graduation Rates for All, Low Income, and Non-Low Income Students in MA and the Bristol County Area, Class of 2007 (A) (B) (C) All Students NonLow Income Low Income (D) Gap Between Income Groups of Students Massachusetts 80.9 88.4 65.2 23.2 Bristol County (Selected Districts) 77.6 86 57.1 28.9 Geographic Area The Percentage of Students in the Class of 2007 That Graduated High School On Time and Planned on Attending a 4-Year College or University 90 80.8 80 74.3 70 65.3 60 in % 50 40 34.3 30 23.1 20 15.7 10 0 District A District B District C District D Top 3 and Bottom 3 Districts District E District F Negative Labor Market Outcomes Associated with Being a High School Dropout Labor market outcomes Lower rates of labor force attachment Lower employment rates Lower weekly wages Lower annual earnings Lower lifetime earnings Reduced employee benefits; health insurance and pension coverage Employment to Population Ratios of Out of School 16 to 19 Year Olds by Educational Attainment in the U.S., the State of Massachusetts, City of Boston, City of Springfield, and Suffolk County, 2004-2005 Averages (in %) Geographic Area U.S. Massachusetts Suffolk County Boston city Springfield city (A) (B) (C) Total Out of School H.S. Graduates H.S. Dropouts 52.7 54.1 39.1 44.2 34.9 61.8 64.6 49.7 65.2 54.0 39.9 38.8 21.8 20.0 24.0 Source: 2004 and 2005 American Community Surveys, public use files, tabulations by authors. Employment to Population Ratios of Out of School 16 to 19 Year Olds by Educational Attainment in the U.S., the State of Massachusetts, City of Boston, City of Springfield, and Selected Counties, 2005-2006 Averages (in %) (A) (B) (C) Geographic Area Massachusetts H.S. Graduate 67.4 H.S. Dropout 39.9 Graduate Dropout 27.5 Bristol County Worcester County Hampden County Essex County Suffolk County Boston city Springfield city Middlesex County 82.0 74.2 63.6 66.0 59.9 55.6 47.1 65.1 38.7 33.0 34.7 39.4 38.9 34.8 27.6 52.0 43.3 41.2 28.9 26.6 21.0 20.8 19.5 13.1 Employment Rates of 16-64 Year Old Adults in Massachusetts by Educational Attainment and Gender, 2005 (in %) Educational Attainment <12 or 12, no diploma/GED H.S. diploma/GED 13-15 years BA degree Master’s or higher degree (A) (B) (C) All Men Women 55.2 73.4 77.6 82.0 86.0 63.6 79.7 83.6 88.8 90.0 44.8 66.2 72.7 75.8 82.2 Source: 2005 American Community Surveys, public use files, tabulations by authors. Employment Rates of 16-64 Year Old Native-Born Adults in Bristol County by Educational Attainment, 2006 (Excluding Those Enrolled in School) 100.0 90.0 86.5 79.3 80.0 84.9 80.0 79.5 70.0 % 60.0 56.4 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 <12 or 12, No H.S. Some College Diploma Diploma/GED Bachelor Degree Master's or Higher Degree All Employment Rates of 20 Years and Older Native-Born Male Adult Dropouts and High School Graduates by Age Group in Massachusetts, 2005 90 84.6 77.1 80 70 82.4 81.1 78.5 HS Dropouts 66.4 HS Graduates 68.4 63.3 60.8 59.7 59.8 60 49.5 50 40 30 20 11.5 14.2 10 0 20-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Employment Rates of Native-Born Male Adult Dropouts, High School Graduates, and College Graduates by Age Group in Massachusetts, 2005 100.0 HS Dropouts HS Graduates College Graduates 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Mean Annual Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Adults in Massachusetts by Educational Attainment and Gender, including Zero Earners, 2005 Educational Attainment <12 or 12, no diploma or GED H.S. diploma/GED 13 – 15 years, including Associate’s degree Bachelor’s degree Master’s or higher degree All (A) (B) (C) All Men Women $16,764 26,013 30,909 50,887 74,562 38,998 $21,554 $10,847 17,524 33,638 24,111 39,263 68,435 96,578 50,082 35,371 53,982 28,372 Source: 2005 American Community Surveys, public use files, tabulations by authors. Comparisons of the Mean Annual Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Adults by Educational Attainment in the U.S. and Massachusetts, 2005 (in $1,000) 80 $74.6 $70.3 70 60 $48.2 in $1,000 50 $50.8 40 30 $26.0 $28.4 $30.9 $22.3 20 $14.6 $16.8 10 0 <12 or 12, no diploma H.S. Graduate 13-15 Years Educational Attainment U.S. Massachusetts BA Degree Master's or Higher Degree Mean Annual Earnings of 18-64 Year Olds in Bristol County in 2006 by Educational Attainment, Includes Zero Earners 60,000 56,710 50,000 $ 40,000 30,000 20,000 29,673 29,267 H.S. Diploma/GED Some College 18,226 10,000 0 <12 or 12, No Diploma Educational Attainment Bachelor or Higher Degree Mean Annual Earnings of 18-29 Year Olds in Bristol County in 2006 by Educational Attainment (Including Zero Earners But Excluding College Students) 45,000 38,981 40,000 35,000 30,000 24,863 25,000 $ 22,179 20,000 15,000 13,113 10,000 5,000 0 <12 or 12, No Diploma H.S. Diploma/GED Some College Educational Attainment Bachelor or Higher Degree Mean Lifetime Earnings of 18-64 Year Old Massachusetts Adults by Educational Attainment (in 1000s of 2005 Dollars) $3,500 $2,963 $3,000 in $1,000 $2,500 $2,203 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $1,221 $1,368 $1,501 $765 $500 $0 <12 or 12, no diploma H.S. Graduate 13-15 Years Associate Degree Educational Attainment BA Degree Master's or Higher Degree Differences Between the Mean Lifetime Earnings of Massachusetts Adults in Selected Educational Groups, All and by Gender (in $1,000) Educational Groups Being Compared H.S. Graduate vs. High School Dropout Associate Degree vs. High School Graduate Bachelor’s Degree vs. High School Graduate Bachelor’s Degree vs. High School Dropout (A) (B) (C) All Men Women $456 $601 $325 280 349 354 982 1,340 710 1,438 1,941 1,035 Trends in the Mean Lifetime Earnings of Male Adults From Ages 18-64 by Educational Attainment Over the 1979 to 2005 Period (in 1000s of Constant 2005 CPI-U Dollars) (A) Educational Attainment <12 or 12, no diploma/GED H.S. diploma/GED 13-15 years Bachelor’s degree Master’s or higher degree 1979 (B) 1989 (C) 1999 $1,383 $1,276 $1,104 1,892 2,196 2,836 3,273 1,891 2,165 3,156 3,722 1,672 2,134 3,368 4,133 (D) (E) (F) (G) 1999– 2005 1979– 2005 Per Cent Change 19792005 $981 $-123 $-402 -29 1,582 1,912 2,933 3,744 -90 -222 -435 -384 -310 -284 +97 +471 -16 -13 +3 +15 2005 Per Cent of 18-64 Year Old Employed Workers in Massachusetts Who Are Covered by a Health Insurance or Pension Plan at Work by Educational Attainment, 2004-2005 Averages (A) Educational Attainment <12 or 12, no diploma or GED H.S. graduate/GED 13-15 years B.A. degree Master’s or higher degree All (B) Health Pension Insurance Coverage 36.2 47.6 49.9 67.3 67.5 55.7 24.9 41.5 40.0 58.8 68.4 49.1 Income outcomes Higher incidence of income inadequacy problems over the lifetime (poverty, near poverty, low incomes) Higher dependence on cash public assistance income to support themselves Higher dependence on in-kind transfers (food stamps, rental housing subsidies, Medicaid) Family outcomes Lower marriage rates among men and women Higher rates of out-of-wedlock childbearing Poorer nutrition, health, cognitive, schooling outcomes for children of high school dropouts Percent of 18-29 Year Olds in Bristol County and Massachusetts Who Were Low Income in 2006 by Educational Attainment 50.0 46.2 45.0 40.0 38.5 35.0 28.6 30.0 % 26.0 25.0 Bristol County Massachusetts 23.0 19.5 20.0 16.1 15.0 9.1 10.0 5.0 0.0 <12 or 12, No Diploma H.S. Diploma/GED Some College Educational Attainment Bachelor or Higher Degree Trends in Marriage Rates Among 20-64 Year Old Native Born Males in Massachusetts by Educational Attainment, 1980 to 2005 (in %) (A) Educational Attainment <12 or 12, no diploma or GED H.S. graduate/GED 13-15 years Bachelor’s degree Master’s or higher degree All (B) (C) (D) 1980 1990 2000 2005 (E) Percentage Point Change, 1980 – 2005 67.6 53.5 45.9 42.8 -24.8 66.0 53.9 61.2 73.5 54.3 53.2 57.0 73.3 52.2 54.7 59.4 73.9 49.5 53.2 60.4 74.5 -16.5 -.7 -.8 +1.0 63.6 56.7 56.9 56.4 -7.2 Marriage Rates of All Native-Born 18-50 Year Olds in Bristol County By Educational Attainment, 2006 80 76.1 70 59.7 60 48.8 47.7 50 in % 43.3 40 30 22.1 20 10 0 <12 or 12, No Diploma H.S. Diploma/GED Some College Bachelor Degree Master's or Higher Degree All Marriage Rates of Male and Female NativeBorn 18-50 Year Olds in Bristol County By Educational Attainment, 2006 90 85.7 80 70.5 70 61.1 60 58.5 51.4 in % 51.3 50 42.3 44.7 46.1 42.5 40 30 20 23.8 17.6 10 0 <12 or 12, No Diploma H.S. Diploma/GED Some College Male Bachelor Degree Female Master's or Higher Degree All Per Cent of Births to Massachusetts Native Born Women (15-50 Years Old) That Were Out-ofWedlock by Educational Attainment of the Mother, 2005 90 80 77 70 Per Cent 60 47 50 40 30 23 20 6 10 5 0 <12 or 12 no diploma H.S. graduate or GED 13-15 years Bachelor's degree Master's or higher degree Educational Attainment Percent of Births Out-of-Wedlock Among 18-50 Year Old Women in Bristol County and Massachusetts, 2006, by Educational Attainment of Mother 70.0 66.3 60.4 60.0 49.5 50.0 41.0 40.0 % 35.6 28.4 30.0 20.0 10.0 3.9 0.0 0.0 <12 or 12, No Diploma H.S. Diploma/GED Some College Educational Attainment Bristol County Massachusetts Bachelor or Higher Degree Per Cent of Massachusetts Families with Children that Were Poor/Near Poor by Educational Attainment of the Family Head, 2005 Educational Attainment <12 or 12, no diploma/GED H.S. diploma/GED 13-15 years Bachelor’s degree Master’s or higher degree All family heads with children (A) (B) (C) Families with Children Families with Children Who Were Poor or Near Poor % Poor or Near Poor 63,451 25,508 40.2% 193,140 208,318 17,234 139,404 39,316 30,316 6,030 3,568 20.3% 14.7% 3.4% 2.6% 779,547 105,087 13.5 Home Ownership Rates of 18-64 Year Olds in Massachusetts and Bristol County by Educational Attainment in 2006 90.0 82.6 80.0 76.1 71.6 70.0 75.8 70.6 64.2 62.7 60.0 50.0 46.8 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 <12 or 12, No Diploma H.S. Diploma/GED Bristol County Some College Massachusetts Bachelor or Higher Degree Per Cent of 18-64 Year Old Adults in Massachusetts and the U.S. Reporting Their Health Status as Fair or Poor, March 2006 25 20 Per Cent 20 18 15 13 13 9 10 9 5 5 5 4 4 0 <12 or 12, no diploma H.S. Diploma/GED 13-15 Years B.A. or Higher Degree Educational Attainment U.S. Massachusetts M.A. or Higher Degree Per Cent of 21-24 Year Olds Who Voted in the 1996 Presidential Election by Educational Attainment, U.S. 80 73 68 70 59 60 Per Cent 50 62 43 40 30 30 20 15 10 0 H.S. Dropout GED H.S. Graduate Some College Associate's Degree Educational Attainment Bachelor's Degree Master's or Higher Degree Per Cent of Voting Eligible Adults (18 and Older) Who Voted in the November 2004 Election by Level of Educational Attainment, Massachusetts Versus the U.S. 100 86.9 85.9 90 81.4 79.3 80 70.7 69.6 70.1 Per Cent 70 64.7 62.6 56.8 60 50 41.7 39.4 40 30 20 10 0 All <12 or 12, No High School Some College H.S. Diploma Graduate Educational Attainment Massachusetts U.S. Bachelor Degree Master's or Higher Degree Per Cent of U.S. Adults 25 and Older Who Did Volunteer Work in 2003 by Educational Attainment 50 46 45 40 34 Per Cent 35 30 25 22 20 15 10 10 5 0 <12 Years High School Graduate 1-3 Years College Educational Attainment B.A. or Higher Degree Criminal justice Outcomes Higher rates of incarceration in jails and prisons Higher victimization costs Higher costs of maintaining prisons and jails Fiscal Outcomes Lower payments of payroll and federal/state income taxes Lower property tax payments due to lower home ownership rates and lower value homes Higher receipt of cash transfer incomes and in-kind transfers (food stamps, rental subsidies, energy assistance, Medicaid) Large net fiscal burdens on rest of taxpayers Percent Distribution of the Criminally Sentenced Population in Department of Correction Facilities by Educational Attainment, January 1, 2005 Educational Attainment 1-12 Years, No Diploma High School Diploma, No College Some College, Including Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Master's Degree or Higher Total (With Reported Level of Educational Attainment) (A) (B) Number Percent 4,334 1,452 70.4 23.6 258 85 29 4.2 1.4 .4 6,158 100.0 Institutionalization Rates of 18-34 Year Old and 18-60 Year Old Adults by Their Level of Educational Attainment, Bristol County, 2006 ACS 18 15.7 16 14 in % 12 10 8 6.2 6 4 1.6 2 2.7 2.1 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0 <12 or 12, No Diploma H.S. Diploma/GED Some College 18-60 Years Old Bachelor Degree 18-34 Years Old Master's or Higher Degree All Institutionalization Rates of 18-34 Year Old Adults by Their Level of Educational Attainment, Massachusetts, 2006 6.0 5.1 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 <12 12 13-15 B.A. Degree M.A. or Higher Institutionalization Rates of 18-34 Year Old Males by Their Level of Educational Attainment, Massachusetts, 2006 9 8 7.8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1.7 1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0 <12 12 13-15 B.A. Degree M.A. or Higher Lifetime Per Capita Costs of Institutionalization for Males by Educational Attainment, Massachusetts, 2005 (A) Educational Attainment 1-12 Years, No Diploma or GED High School Diploma, No College Some College, Including Associate Degrees Bachelor's Degree Master's Degree (B) (C) (D) Institutionalization Rate (in %) Per Capita Cost Average Annual Cost (in $) Average Lifetime Cost of Institutionalization (in $) 4.0 43,025 1,721 80,887 1.9 43,025 817 38,399 0.9 0.2 0.1 43,025 43,025 43,025 387 86 43 18,189 4,042 2,021 Estimates of Tax Payments Made and Transfers Received By Adults 16 to 64 Years Old By Educational Attainment, U.S., 2005-2007 (3-Year Averages) (A) Educational Attainment <12 or 12, No Diploma H.S. Diploma/GED Some College Bachelor Degree Master's or Higher Degree All Total Tax Payments (B) (C) Total Transfers Net Fiscal Impact including Prison (Column A Expenditures Column B) $ $ $ $ 7,461 11,894 13,568 22,137 $ $ $ $ 8,832 6,414 5,263 3,527 $ $ $ $ (1,371) 5,480 8,305 18,610 $ $ 31,448 17,929 $ $ 2,625 4,867 $ $ 28,823 13,062 Differences Between Mean Lifetime Net Fiscal Contributions of Massachusetts Adults in Selected Educational Groups, 2007 $1,000,000 $939,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $617,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $322,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $High School Graduate Vs. Dropout B.A. Degree vs. H.S Graduate B.A. Degree vs. H.S. Dropout