Middle East Peace
Scenarios: Round 1
The Millennium Project
Mid Term Report
February 13, 2003
Study Process
Round 1
Pre-conditions, actions
Planning Committee review
Global panel
Analysis
Normative scenarios
Interview protocol
Round 2
Pre-conditions, actions
Form scenarios
Planning Committee review
Global panel
Analysis
Interviews
Analysis, report
and dissemination
Study Objectives and Cautions

Objectives
 Create a series of normative scenarios illustrating routes to Middle East peace
 Define a series of pre- conditions to peace
 Generate and evaluate a series of actions to meet those pre- conditions
 Generate and evaluate the policies contained in the scenarios

Cautions
 The work is controversial
 Some parties consider it naive
 Both Arab and Israeli respondents have seen it as biased toward their opposition.

Risks
 It might prove impossible to accomplish.
 No study such as this will lift the veil of conflict.
 But the risks are worth the possible gains if some new insights are produced, and the
dialog is improved.
Prestudy Dialog

There were some who responded with enthusiasm:
 The world, all races and religions, will be grateful if the peace in the Middle East is
achieved soon. I will participate..
 A timely and needed study, indeed. Will be glad to participate. Looking forward to the
results.

But others who found the effort misplaced:
 The crux of the matter is not "recognition of the State of Israel" ... but recognition and
"acceptance" of Israel as a "Jewish State" (with an Arab minority having full rights as
citizen). The omission of this point in the material and in the thinking/assumptions
underlying the Study invalidates it in my view.
I cannot respond to your questionnaire (because) I believe that whatever agreements
(are signed) ... no lasting peace will be achieved as long as the mullahs continue to
brainwash every new generation with hate and indoctrinate them with the goal of the
destruction of Israel, and the killing or removal of all Jews from "Arab" lands. And, I
believe the mullahs will continue to do so until the Arab theocracies are replaced with
representative governments...,
Prestudy Dialog (con't)

.0


The questionnaire is politically biased towards the Israeli point of view about
Jerusalem
The questionnaire
 ...has also called for the settlement of the refugees issue without taking into
consideration their fundamental right to return to their homes...
 .. avoided to hold Israel accountable for any damages for the sake of sounding neutral in
the search for peace.
 ...discount(s) ... the truth about the political and historical conflict between the two parties
as well the civilization gap between the two of them

We suggest ... an alternative questionnaire (including)
 The recognition of the existence of an occupation and aggression to be ended by an
immediate international resolution.
 The right of the Palestinian people to exist without any interference from any foreign
party.
 The right of the Palestinian people to live on their own homeland regardless of the events
imposed upon them by force.
Initial Conclusions









Systematic study of routes to peace seems possible (it was in doubt at the start)
The UN is involved in many of the promising actions and therefore must exert a
leadership role.
The answers do not distinguish the politics of the respondents.
Differences in opinions about what is important are small
On average, most actions are considered important, and about as likely as not.
The backfire potential is, on average, lower than 50/50.
The more important actions are also seen as most likely; there is no relationship
between importance and backfire potential.
The consequences and cross impacts of any action are complex and must be
carefully thought through in any scenario and planned action.
Responses from sub-groups from Arabic countries and Israel agreered in many
areas, an inkling of a way to begin dialog.
The Demography of the Sample:
Round 1
Europe
32.2%
politicians
military
5.4% 3.4%
Asia and
Oceania
20.9%
futurists
22.1%
Israel
4.3%
Latin America
20.0%
North
America
11.3%
M- E Arabic
Countri
11.3%
academics
37.6%
religious
2.0%
other
(Gov..,
privat
13.4%
consultants
16.1%
Questionnaire Format
Necessary condition for peace / actions--options
1. Provide Secure borders for Israel
1.1 Israeli withdrawal from all areas occupied since the 1967 war
1.2 Resume the Peace Process on the bases of UN resolutions
1.3 Enact a UN General Assembly resolution that clearly defines the
borders and is enforced by a UN Security Council resolution
1.4 Recognition of Israel as an independent state by all Arab states
1.5 Deploy international observers
1.6 Install a high-technology sensor system on borders to detect
clandestine motion
1.7 Place UN peacekeeping forces in areas of conflict or potential conflict
Import
Likelihd
Backfire
Potential
Conditions That May be Necessary
for Peace
1. Provide Secure borders for Israel
2. Establishment of a viable and independent
Palestinian state
3. Resolution of the Jerusalem question
4. End violence by both sides and build confidence
5. Social and Economic Development
6. Education
7. Resolution of Palestinian refugee status
Evaluation of Actions
Importance
5 = must be achieved for peace to exist
4 = very effective in leading to peace
3 = effective but not essential
2 = not very effective
1 = counterproductive
Likelihood of Implementation
5 = very likely
4 = likely
3 = implies a lot of compromise
2 = almost impossible
1 = never achievable
Backfire Potential (for unintended deleterious consequences)
5= almost certain to backfire
4= very risky
3= as likely as not to backfire
2= minor chance
1= no chance to backfire
Importance vs. Liklihood and
Backfire
(n~ 110)
Guarantee religious
rights of all creeds in
Jerusalem
Recognize Palestine as
UN member state
4
Additional venues for talks
3.5
Negotiate
water sharing
3
2.5
Liklihoo
BF
Liklihood and Backfire
2
Score
Jerusalem time sharing
Berlin Wall
1.5
1
0.5
Withdraw Israeli military
forces from disputed territories
Recognition of Israel
by all Arab states
0
0
1
2
3
Importance Score
4
5
Importance vs. Liklihood and
Backfire
(n~ 110)
4.5
4
3.5
3
Liklihood and Backfire 2.5
2
Score
1.5
1
0.5
0
BF
Liklihoo
Import
BF
Importance Score
High Importance, High Liklihood
Actions (n~ 110)
Action
Import
(=>4.1)
Likelihd
(=>3.4)
Backfire
5.1
Negotiate long-term water sharing agreements
4.42
3.46
2.64
3.9
Guarantee religious rights of all creeds in Jerusalem
4.41
3.67
2.78
1.2
Resume the Peace Process on the bases of UN resolutions 4.22
3.43
2.77
3.8
Guarantee free access to holy sites
4.17
3.44
2.88
4.11
3.55
5.5 Special international programs under UN for industrial and
technological development of a Palestinian state
High Importance, Lower Liklihood
Actions (n~ 110)
Import
(=>4.1)
Likelihd
(<3.4)
Backfire
4.45
3.12
2.76
4.45
3.18
3.19
4.35
2.83
2.83
2.1 Enact a UN General Assembly resolution that clearly
defines borders and is enforced by UN Security Council
4.33
3.38
3.07
1.1 Israeli withdrawal from all areas occupied since the 1967
war
4.28
2.85
3.20
3.2
Develop a plan for peacefully sharing holy sites
4.25
3.38
2.97
4.5
End Israeli occupation of land obtained during 1967
4.22
2.88
3.14
6.1 Create UNESCO scholars curricula that provides unbiased
4.21
history and information to teach tolerance
3.40
2.39
6.6
Provide Equal access to education for women
4.18
3.33
2.48
4.1
Israel withdraws its settlements to the pre-’67 line
4.14
2.81
3.14
4.12
3.28
Action
1.4 Recognition of Israel as an independent state by all Arab
states
2.3 Withdraw Israeli military forces from disputed and/or
occupied territories they control
4.4
4.17
End suicide bombings
Cooperation to combat terrorism
war
Lower Importance, High Liklihood
Actions (n~ 110)
Action
Import
(=<3.7)
Likelihd
(=>3)
Backfire
1.7 Place UN peacekeeping forces in areas of conflict or
potential conflict
3.59
3.45
2.89
6.8 Produce a movie based on the results of this study to show
how many different elements can come together to achieve
peace
3.39
3.42
2.37
1.6 Install a high-technology sensor system on borders to
detect clandestine motion
2.88
3.41
Higher Backfire Potential Actions (n
110)
Action
Import
Likelihd
Backfire
(=>3.1)
3.7
Build a “Berlin Wall”
1.42
2.17
3.62
3.5
Reduce the size of the city of Jerusalem to its pre-’67 borders
2.76
2.40
3.48
7.1
Provide Palestinians the right to return to Israel as
3.61
2.70
3.37
3.6
Establish a time sharing governance between Israel and Palestine
2.22
2.10
3.25
2.82
2.72
3.25
4.10
Israeli citizens
Place an international peacekeeping force in the area outside the UN
jurisdiction
1.1
Israeli withdrawal from all areas occupied since the 1967 war
4.28
2.85
3.20
2.3
Withdraw Israeli military forces from disputed and/or
4.45
3.18
3.19
4.1
Israel withdraws its settlements to the pre-’67 line
4.14
2.81
3.14
4.22
2.88
3.14
3.86
3.18
3.10
3.71
2.87
3.10
3.72
3.01
4.5 End Israeli occupation of land obtained during 1967
rate it here for its effect on condition 4]
occupied territories they control
war [Although previously rated,
3.3 Enact a clear, definite UN General Assembly resolution with enforcement,
the areas that are under the governance of Israel and Palestine
3.1
stipulating
Declare Jerusalem an International City
7.2 Create an Israeli-Palestinian commission, which would negotiate an agreement
specifying a particular number of Palestinians who would have the right to return to Israel
United Nations Led Actions
(n~ 110)
Action
2.2
Import
Recognize Palestine as a sovereign UN member state
2.1 Enact a UN General Assembly resolution that clearly defines the borders and
enforced by a UN Security Council resolution
1.2
is
Resume the Peace Process on the bases of UN resolutions
6.1 Create via UNESCO scholars curricula for introduction to school systems in the
Middle East that provides unbiased historical awareness and information designed to
teach tolerance
5.5 Special international programs under UN for industrial and technological development
of a Palestinian state
7.3 Initiate International inspections under UN to assure that human rights are being
respected
7.4 Assure the right to repatriation and compensation according to General Assembly
Resolution 194/48
3.3 Enact a clear, definite UN General Assembly resolution with enforcement, stipulating
the areas that are under the governance of Israel and Palestine based on previous
Security Council Resolutions
4.7 Establish many UN-funded citizens conflict resolution/dialogue groups to learn and
practice peace-building skills
1.3 Enact a UN General Assembly resolution that clearly defines the borders and is
enforced by a UN Security Council resolution
1.7
Place UN peacekeeping forces in areas of conflict or potential conflict
4.3 Establish a UN Security Council resolution banning further violent actions,
would be enforced.
3.4
Establish a UN Trusteeship
which
Likelihd
Backfire
(=>3.1)
4.50
3.62
3.00
4.33
3.38
3.07
4.22
3.43
2.77
4.21
3.40
2.39
4.11
3.55
2.55
3.92
3.43
2.78
3.90
3.26
2.97
3.86
3.18
3.10
3.83
3.46
2.64
3.83
3.07
3.03
3.59
3.45
2.89
3.52
3.20
3.04
3.25
2.90
Internal Consistency Check (n~ 110)
Action
Import
Likelihd
Backfire
(=>3.1)
1.1
Israeli withdrawal from all areas occupied since the 1967 war
4.28
2.85
3.20
2.3
Withdraw Israeli military forces from disputed and/or occupied territories they control
4.45
3.18
3.19
4.1
Israel withdraws its settlements to the pre-’67 line
4.14
2.81
3.14
4.5
End Israeli occupation of land obtained during 1967 war
4.22
2.88
1. Provide Secure Borders for Israe
1.4
Recognition of Israel as an independent state by all Arab states
1.1
Israeli withdrawal from all areas occupied since the 1967 war
1.2
Resume the Peace Process on the bases of UN resolutions
1.3 Enact a UN General Assembly resolution that clearly defines the
borders and is enforced by a UN Security Council resolution
1.4 Recognition of Israel as an
independent state by all Arab
states
80
70
60
50
Number of Responses 40
30
20
10
0
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
2. Establishment of a viable and
independent Palestinian state
2.2
Recognize Palestine as a sovereign UN member state
2.3 Withdraw Israeli military forces from disputed and/or
territories they control
occupied
2.1 Enact a UN General Assembly resolution that clearly defines the
borders and is enforced by a UN Security Council resolution
2.4 Succession of President Yasser Arafat by free supervised
elections
2.2 Recognize Palestine as a
sovereign UN member state
80
70
60
50
Number of Responses 40
30
20
10
0
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
3. Resolution of the Jerusalem
question
3.9
Guarantee religious rights of all creeds in Jerusalem
3.2
Develop a plan for peacefully sharing holy sites
3.8
Guarantee free access to holy sites
3.3 Enact a clear, definite UN General Assembly resolution with
enforcement, stipulating the areas that are under the governance of
Israel and Palestine based on previous Security Council Resolutions
3.9
Guarantee religious rights o
all creeds in Jerusalem
80
70
60
50
Number of Responses 40
30
20
10
0
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
4. End violence by both sides and
build confidence
4.4
End suicide bombings
4.5
End Israeli occupation of land obtained during 1967 war
4.1
Israel withdraws its settlements to the pre-’67 line
4.17
Cooperation to combat terrorism
4.4
End suicide bombings
80
70
60
50
Number of Responses 40
30
20
10
0
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5.
5.1
Social and Economic
Development
Negotiate long-term water sharing agreements
5.5 Establish special international programs under UN umbrella to
encourage industrial and technological development for the
Palestinian state
5.3
Promote Palestinian access to world markets
5.10 Create local participatory planning processes connected to
development budget decisionmaking (similar to Shrouk in Egypt) to
help restore dignity and faith in the future
5.1
Negotiate long-term water
sharing agreements
80
70
60
50
Number of Responses 40
30
20
10
0
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
6. Education
6.1 Create via UNESCO scholars curricula for introduction to school
systems in the Middle East that provides unbiased historical
awareness, information designed to teach tolerance
6.6
Provide equal access to education for women
6.4 Invest in Palestinian educational infrastructure to bring it to par
with Israel
6.5 Organize cultural symposiums with religious leaders from both
sides to discuss ways to cultivate tolerance and peace
6.1
A curricula for introduction to school system
in Middle East to provide unbiased historical
awareness, information designed to teach
tolerance
80
70
60
50
Number of Responses 40
30
20
10
0
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
7. Resolution of Palestinian refuge
status
7.3 Initiate International inspections under UN to assure that human
rights are being respected
7.4 Assure the right to repatriation and compensation according to
General Assembly Resolution 194/48
7.2 Create an Israeli-Palestinian commission, which would negotiate
an agreement specifying a particular number of Palestinians who
would have the right to return to Israel
7.1
Provide Palestinians the right to return to Israel as Israeli citizens
7.3 International inspections unde
UN to assure that human rights ar
being respected
80
70
60
50
Number of Responses 40
30
20
10
0
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
3.7
Build a “Berlin Wall"
80
70
60
50
Number of Responses 40
30
20
10
0
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
Some Comments by Participants
With the inevitable war with Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian crisis will only perpetuate, and in fact, may
deteriorate as sympathizers for Iraq in that region may lash out in the form of suicide bombings and
other terrorist attacks
The main driving forces of the conflicts between Palestine and Israel include: Religion, Resource,
Revenge and Foreign interference. These four forces are interwoven and centuries long scale...
Most of Palestinian or Jewish are longing for peace and love is a basic nature of both nationalities.
Only a strong U.N.. sincerely backed by affluent and powerful states that can assure peace in the
area. It is to be impressed on a belligerent Palestine that terrorism should be stopped at all costs
that innocent people should not be made to suffer on religious grounds. Politics and religion must
be kept apart if peace is to prevail.
One of the key problems is that there is now a generation who have been brought under Israeli
occupation/oppression and whose hatred of Israel is core to their identity... Once you have a mass
of people who are willing to die for their cause, there is very little you can do to stop them except kill
them first so that they still die but not for the cause.
Focus on finding and developing a "next generation" of leaders from both sides who can look at the
problem in a new way. Perhaps, look for these individuals among those who have lived in the land,
but are now living outside of the land.
Some Comments by Participants
(con't)
Declare Jerusalem as a holy city for all mankind, put it under heavy international protection maybe a high wall/fence is needed, and give each religion its dedicated days of the year to visit
Jerusalem alone in peace.
The key is to give all Palestinians whose ancestors lived in the border of present Israel with either
land in Israel, the new Palestine, or the United States or some other mutually agreed on country. A
financial settlement would be acceptable if the US can reach accommodation...
Bilateral talks under the banner of the UN between the Arabs and the Jews in Israel is the final
solution.
Comparison of Responses From Two
Sub-groups:
Arabic Countries and Israel




Two sub- groups were formed from the responses: one using
people from Arabic countries and the other from Israel.
The size of these groups was too small to draw any powerful
inferences. (13 and 6)
Nevertheless, the analysis of their responses points to a useful
methodology.
Taking the responses at face value, there are important areas of
agreement which suggest strategies for the scenarios and
perhaps real life.
1. Provide Secure borders for Isra
Most Important >4
Most Likely >3.5
Highest Backfire >3.5
Good
Agreement <.5
High
Disagreement >2
Arab
1.1 Israeli withdrawal 1.2 Resume the Peace 1.4 Recognition of
Importance of
Liklihood of:
from all areas occupied Process on the bases of Israel as an independent
since the 1967 war
UN resolutions
state by all Arab states 1.2 Resume the Peace 1.4 Recognition of
Process on the bases of Israel as an independent
1.4 Recognition of Israel
UN resolutions
state by all Arab states
as an independent state
by all Arab states
Arab group higher
Israeli
1.4 Recognition of
1.6 Install a highIsrael as an independent technology sensor
state by all Arab states system on borders to
detect clandestine
motion
Illustration of Scenario Construction
1. Provide Secure borders for Israel
Most Important >4
Arab
Most Likely >3.5
Good
Agreement <.5
High
Disagreement >2
1.1 Israeli withdrawal 1.2 Resume the Peace 1.4 Recognition of
Importance of
Liklihood of:
from all areas occupied Process on the bases of Israel as an independent
since the 1967 war
UN resolutions
state by all Arab states 1.2 Resume the Peace 1.4 Recognition of
Process on the bases of Israel as an independent
1.4 Recognition of Israel
UN resolutions
state by all Arab states
as an independent state
by all Arab states
Arab group higher
Recognize
Begin here
Concern
Trade off
Israeli
Highest Backfire >3.5
1.4 Recognition of
1.6 Install a highIsrael as an independent technology sensor
state by all Arab states system on borders to
detect clandestine
motion
Safeguards
2. Establishment of a viable and
independent Palestinian State
Most Important >4
Most Likely >3.5
Highest Backfire >3.5
Good
Agreement <.5
High
Disagreement >2
Arab
2.2 Recognize
2.2 Recognize
2.2 Recognize
Liklihood of
Backfire potential of:
Palestine as a sovereign Palestine as a sovereign Palestine as a sovereign
UN member state
UN member state
UN member state
2.1 Enact a UN General2.2 Recognize
Assembly resolution that Palestine as a sovereign
clearly defines the
UN member state (1.38)
borders and is
enforced by a UN
Arabs thought it higher
Security Council
resolution
Israeli
2.1 Enact a UN General2.2 Recognize
2.3 Withdraw Israeli
Assembly resolution that Palestine as a sovereign military forces from
clearly defines the
UN member state
disputed and/or
borders and is enforced
occupied territories they
by a UN Security
control (3.29)
Council resolution
2.2 Recognize Palestine
as a sovereign state
Illustration of Scenario Construction
2. Establishment of a viable and
independent Palestinian State
Most Important >4
Arab
Most Likely >3.5
Highest Backfire >3.5
Good
Agreement <.5
High
Disagreement >2
2.2 Recognize
2.2 Recognize
2.2 Recognize
Liklihood of
Backfire potential of:
Palestine as a sovereign Palestine as a sovereign Palestine as a sovereign
UN member state
UN member state
UN member state
2.1 Enact a UN General2.2 Recognize
Assembly resolution that Palestine as a sovereign
clearly defines the
UN member state (1.38)
borders and is
enforced by a UN
Arabs thought it higher
Security Council
resolution
Trade Off
Why?
Israeli
2.1 Enact a UN General2.2 Recognize
2.3 Withdraw Israeli
Assembly resolution that Palestine as a sovereign military forces from
clearly defines the
UN member state
disputed and/or
borders and is enforced
occupied territories they
by a UN Security
control (3.29)
Council resolution
2.2 Recognize Palestine
as a sovereign state
Provide
Safeguards
Begin here
3. Resolution of the Jerusalem
question
Most Important >4
Most Likely >3.5
Highest Backfire >3.5
Good
Agreement < .5
High
Disagreement > 2
Arab
3.9 Guarantee religious
rights of all creeds in
Jerusalem
3.9 Guarantee religiousImportance of:
Backfire potential of:
rights of all creeds in
Jerusalem
3.3 Enact a clear,
3.7 Build a “Berlin Wall”
definite UN General
Assembly resolution
Arabs thought potential
with enforcement,
was much lower than
stipulating the areas that Israeli group
are under the
governance of Israel
and Palestine based
on previous Security
Council Resolutions
Israeli
3.9 Guarantee religious
rights of all creeds in
Jerusalem
3.7
Build a “Berlin Wall”
4. End violence by both sides and
build confidence
Most Important >4
Arab
4.5 End Israeli
occupation of land
obtained during 1967
war
Israeli
4.3 End suicide
bombings
Most Likely> 3.5
Highest Backfire> 3.5
Good
Agreement <.5
High
Disagreement >2
4.2 Accept Saudi
4.7 Establish many UN-Importance of:
Backfire potential of:
Arabian Crown Prince funded citizens conflict
Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz resolution/dialogue
4.13 Promote women 4.15 Create additional
proposal [that calls for groups to learn and
activist groups to
venues where
Israel’s withdrawal from practice peace- building cultivate peace ideas in moderates of both sides
lands occupied in 1967 skills
the family environment can talk to each other
and the establishment
of a Palestinian state in
Arabs much higher
the West Bank and
Gaza Strip and then
all the Arab States wi
4.15 Create additional 4.9 Establish an
venues where
International Tribunal
moderates of both sides that would try civilians
4.17 Cooperation to end can talk to each other and/or leaders from
terrorism
Palestine and Israel
accused of heinous
crimes
5.
Most Important > 4
Social and Economic
Development
Most Likely >3.5
Highest Backfire > 3.5
Good
Agreement <.5
High
Disagreement >2
Arab
5.1 Negotiate long-term5.5 Establish special 5.8 Establish a program5.10 Create local
Backfire potential of:
water sharing
international programs of technology transfer participatory planning
agreements
under UN umbrella to
from Israel to the
processes connected to5.8 Establish a program
encourage industrial Palestinian state to
development budget
of technology transfer
and technological
improve agriculture and decision- making
from Israel to the
development for the
economic development (similar to Shrouk in
Palestinian state to
Palestinian state
Egypt) to help restore
improve agriculture and
dignity and faith in the economic development
future
Arab groups high
Israeli
5.1 Negotiate long-term5.9 Encourage direct
water sharing
foreign investment in the
agreements
new Palestinian state
5.5 Establish special
international programs
under UN umbrella to
encourage industrial and
technological
development for the
Palestinian state.
6. Education
Most Important > 4
Arab
Israeli
Most Likely> 3.5
Highest Backfire> 3.5
6.1 Create via
6.1 Create via
6.5 Organize cultural
UNESCO scholars
UNESCO scholars
symposiums with
curricula for introduction curricula for introduction religious leaders from
to school systems in
to school systems in
both sides to discuss
the Middle East that
the Middle East that
ways to cultivate
provides unbiased
provides unbiased
tolerance and peace
historical awareness
historical awareness
and information
and information
designed to teach
designed to teach
tolerance
tolerance
6.1 Create via
UNESCO scholars
curricula for introduction
to school systems in
the Middle East that
provides unbiased
historical awareness
and information
designed to teach
tolerance
Good <.5
High
Disagreement >2
Probability of:
Backfire potential of:
6.5 Organize cultural
symposiums with
religious leaders from
both sides to discuss
ways to cultivate
tolerance and peace
6.5 Organize cultural
symposiums with
religious leaders from
both sides to discuss
ways to cultivate
tolerance and peace
Arab group was higher
7. Resolution of Palestinian refuge
status
Most Important > 4
Most Likely> 3.5
Highest Backfire> 3.5
Good
Agreement <.5
High
Disagreement >2
Arab
7.4 Assure the right to 7.4 Assure the right to 7.3 Initiate InternationalProbability of:
Importance of:
repatriation and
repatriation and
inspections under UN to
compensation according compensation according assure that human
7.2 Create an Israeli- 7.1 Provide
to General Assembly to General Assembly rights are being
Palestinian commission, Palestinians the right to
Resolution 194/48
Resolution 194/48
respected
which would negotiate return to Israel as
an agreement
Israeli citizens
specifying a particular
number of Palestinians Arab group is higher
who would have the
right to return to Israel
Israeli
7.2 Create an Israeli- 7.2 Create an Israeli- 7.1 Provide
Palestinian commission, Palestinian commission, Palestinians the right to
which would negotiate which would negotiate return to Israel as
an agreement
an agreement
Israeli citizens
specifying a particular specifying a particular
number of Palestinians number of Palestinians
who would have the
who would have the
right to return to Israel right to return to Israel