’09-10 season competitive cable 3Q 00 Competitive Cable Overview DISCOVERY NETWORKS U.S. RESEARCH 1 agenda ► ratings update ►’09-10 prime shifts ► new season ► DVR contribution ► where does PTV fit in the landscape? 2 3 ratings update industry ’09-10 Most broadcast nets saw small shifts in ’09-10. Prime Time P25-54 Rtg 25 '07-08 '08-09 '09-10 20 PBS regained +14% to match its ’07-08 prime rating (0.42). 15 10 5 0 ABC CBS NBC FOX PBS -3% -4% +2% -5% +14% 2009-10 = Sep 21 2009 – Sep 19 2010 M-Su 8-11pm, P25-54 L+SD, time period averages TNET -1% ASCO -2% NBC is buoyed by Winter Olympics (1Q 10), Summer Olympics (3Q 08), primetime NFL (4Q). 4 new season Sep 20-Oct 31 2010 Entering the new season NBC had the most to regain, following a 36% loss for the Leno 10p hour in fall 2009. Prime Time P25-54 Rtg 25 2008* 2009* 2010* 20 15 10 CBS is top-rated in the new season todate. 5 0 ABC CBS NBC FOX -5% +2% +5% -18% PBS TNET -7% +1% ASCO -2% FOX 2010 postseason MLB drives the decline vs same period prior year. ALCS -15% World Series -29% M-Su 8-11pm, P25-54 L+SD, time period averages * same 6-week period each year 5 6 b’dcast new season Sep 20–Oct 31 2010 NBC ABC CBS CBS ABC CBS ABC ABC CBS CBS CBS CBS ABC FOX CBS CBS CBS CBS CBS CBS CBS FOX FOX CBS NBC Top 25 Programs NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL DANCING WITH THE STARS TWO AND A HALF MEN NCIS MODERN FAMILY BIG BANG THEORY, THE GREY'S ANATOMY DANCING W/STARS RESULTS SURVIVOR: NICARAGUA NCIS: LOS ANGELES CRIMINAL MINDS MIKE & MOLLY DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES GLEE UNDERCOVER BOSS HAWAII FIVE 0 CSI MENTALIST, THE $#*! MY DAD SAYS AMAZING RACE 17 HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER SIMPSONS HOUSE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT OFFICE Hour Su 830p M 8p M 9p Tu 8p W 9p Th 8p Th 9p Tu 9p W 8p Tu 9p W 9p M 930p Su 9p Tu 8p Su 9p M 10p Th 9p Th 10p Th 830p Su 8p M 8p Su 8p M 8p M 830p Th 9p M-Su 8-11pm, P25-54 L+SD, specials excluded. L+SD P25-54 Rtg 8.50 5.91 5.82 5.52 5.50 5.42 5.01 4.90 4.84 4.82 4.79 4.75 4.73 4.64 4.52 4.41 4.39 4.39 4.33 4.30 3.96 3.91 3.83 3.78 3.71 Of 22 new series, only three appear in the top 25 ranking after six weeks. All air on CBS. Of the sophomore series, FOX’s Glee, CBS’s NCIS LA, and CBS’s Undercover Boss each returned to the top 25. Five new series are cancelled: FOX Lone Star ABC My Generation NBC Outlaw ABC The Whole Truth NBC Undercovers 7 8 cable gainers ’09-10 fast look ► ID +38% 24% P25-54 % increase 38% (0.22) Wed Who Bleep Marry (0.42) Fri Deadly Women (0.38) Mon Disappeared (0.34) Tue Almost Got Away (0.33) Sun On Case P Zahn (0.31) 5% NFLN 6% WGNA 7% BRAV 7% ESPN 8% SCI 8% A&E 8% FOOD 9% (0.68) Mon (1.27 +123%) Sun (0.96 +28%) STYL 9% GSN 10% TRU 10% EN 11% CNBC 12% TV1 13% TRAV APL HIST ID 14% ► HIST +24% ► APL +14% (0.25) Fri Whale Wars (0.48) Sun River Monsters (0.47) Fri Pitbulls Parolees (0.31) ► TRAV +13% (0.26) Wed Man v Food (0.36) Wed Bert-Conqueror (0.35) 2009-10 = Sep 21 2009 – Sep 19 2010 M-Su 8-11pm, P25-54 L+SD, PQH daypart ratings, Ranking includes >0.10 P25-54 and >5% gain 9 decliners ’09-10 ► SOAP -20% CNN HLN (0.26) Mon originals (0.37 -35%) Sun originals (0.37 -30%) Long-term losses for movie & off-net (plus recent Martha Stewart daytime failure) -32% CMT -11% MSNB -31% LIFE -10% SPD -28% USA -10% HALL -26% FOXN -9% VH1 -24% TBSC -8% SOAP NGC -7% ► VH1 -24% ► HALL -26% (0.23) -20% TNT -7% SPK WE -6% -14% SYFY -5% (0.20) Prime is ABC soap replayswill relaunch as Disney Jr in 2012 -5% CMDY P25-54 % decrease fast look -54% ► Cable News Nets 2009-10 = Sep 21 2009 – Sep 19 2010 M-Su 8-11pm, P25-54 L+SD, PQH daypart ratings, Ranking includes >0.10 P25-54 and >5% loss FOX News -9% (0.49) MSNBC -31% (0.24) HLN -32% (0.15) CNN -54% (0.16) 10 11 dvr use cable dvr 3Q 10 Network Program L+7D P 25-54 COV +/Rtg % Lift L+7D vs Live Hour AA% Point AA% Tu 9p 4.18 1.37 49% DISC DEADLIEST CATCH USA ROYAL PAINS Th 10p 3.22 1.33 70% USA COVERT AFFAIRS Tu 10p 3.03 1.32 77% LIFE PROJECT RUNWAY Th 9p 2.51 1.26 101% FX SONS OF ANARCHY Tu 10p 3.16 1.24 65% TNT RIZZOLI & ISLES M 10p 3.13 1.21 63% BRAV TOP CHEF W 10p 2.52 1.20 91% USA BURN NOTICE Th 9p 2.96 1.16 64% TNT CLOSER, THE M 9p 2.84 1.08 61% USA WHITE COLLAR EN KEEPING UP KARDASHIANS TNT LEVERAGE Tu 9p 2.28 1.05 85% Su 10p 2.55 1.03 68% Su 9p 2.03 0.97 92% MTV JERSEY SHORE 2 Th 10p 2.70 0.95 54% AMC MAD MEN SU 10p 1.72 0.93 118% USA PSYCH W 10p 2.15 0.93 76% SCIF WAREHOUSE 13 Tu 9p 1.71 0.82 92% FOOD NEXT FN STAR 6 Su 9p 2.36 0.82 53% CMDY TOSH.O W 1030p 1.54 0.74 93% BRAV REAL HSWIVES OF NJ M 10p 2.10 0.73 53% SCIF EUREKA F 9p 1.49 0.73 96% BRAV TOP CHEF W 9p 1.50 0.71 90% FX RESCUE ME Tu 10p 1.33 0.67 102% LIFE ARMY WIVES Su 10p 1.82 0.65 56% MTV TEEN MOM 2 Tu 10p 1.87 0.63 51% MTV HILLS, THE SSN 6 Tu 10p 1.41 0.63 81% Ranking includes only 3+ telecasts, specials excluded, ranked by rating point gain of L+7D rating vs live rating 11 cable programs gained ~1 rating point or more via timeshifted viewing LIFE’s Project Runway, AMC’s Madmen and FX’s Rescue Me doubled its live P25-54 rating in the live+7 metric HIST’s Mon 10p Pawn Stars hour falls outside the top 25, gaining 0.50 rating point (25% lift) on its 1.93 live rating. 12 new season dvr b’cast 4 weeks only! Sep 20-Oct 17 Top 25 Programs L+7D % Lift P25-54 +/L+7D COV Rtg vs Live Day AA% Point AA% ABC MODERN FAMILY W 9p 6.91 2.91 73% ABC GREY'S ANATOMY Th 9p 6.84 2.79 69% FOX GLEE Tu 8p 6.30 2.77 78% CBS BIG BANG THEORY, THE Th 8p 6.60 2.60 65% FOX HOUSE M 8p 5.66 2.49 79% NBC OFFICE Th 9p 4.90 2.18 80% CBS SURVIVOR: NICARAGUA W 8p 5.67 2.06 57% CBS TWO AND A HALF MEN M 9p 6.89 1.94 39% CBS NCIS Tu 8p 6.48 1.92 42% CBS CRIMINAL MINDS W 9p 5.95 1.89 47% ABC DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES Su 9p 5.79 1.87 48% CBS HAWAII FIVE M 10p 6.12 1.84 43% CBS HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER CBS MENTALIST, THE NBC EVENT ABC PRIVATE PRACTICE CBS CSI ABC COUGAR TOWN FOX BONES FOX CBS M 8p 4.80 1.80 60% Th 10p 5.65 1.63 41% M 9p 4.41 1.62 58% Th 10p 4.48 1.57 54% Th 9p 5.30 1.51 40% W 930p 4.32 1.49 53% Th 8p 3.98 1.46 58% FRINGE Th 9p 3.29 1.41 75% NCIS: LOS ANGELES Tu 9p 5.66 1.36 32% ABC CASTLE M 10p 4.47 1.35 43% CBS AMAZING RACE 17 Su 8p 5.00 1.33 36% NBC 30 ROCK Th 830p 3.40 1.33 64% FOX HELL'S KITCHEN W 9p 4.20 1.31 45% Specials excluded, ranked by rating point gain of L+7D rating vs live rating This table ranks L+7 lift vs live P25-54 by rating point gain. Of the new fall series, CBS’s Hawaii 5-0 shows greatest L+7 lift, followed by NBC’s The Event. 9 of the most time-shifted series air on Thursdays. 13 14 where does PTV fit in? Prime Household Rankings (Jan thru Oct 27 for selected cable/broadcast nets) Despite Y-O-Y slippage, the “Big Four” excel in household ratings 6.0 5.0 4.0 Fox News is only Cable web to surpass PTV bucket 3.0 2.0 DIY BBCA BIO History Intl. TRAV NGC APL CNN MSNB HALL TLC FOOD DISC HGTV HIST PBS FOXN FOX ABC NBC 0.0 CBS 1.0 More mature cable nets form the leading tier followed by later-launched niche services 15 Who’s the Target? Median Prime Time age for selected cable/broadcast nets, YTD 2010 The trades focus on 18-49s or 25-54 adults because that’s what Madison Ave is buying. 70.0 60.0 50.0 Should that make it PTV’s audience too? 40.0 30.0 PTV ranks: #12 for P18-34 #10 for P35-54 #6 for P55+ 20.0 FOXN CNN HALL PBS MSNBC HGTV CBS History Intl. NBC ABC DIY BIO NGC HIST BBCA FOX FOOD APL TLC TRAV 0.0 DISC 10.0 Where should PTV focus, especially as the U.S. population shifts to the right (age-wise)? 16