Statistical and Decision-Making
Support Model
Concept and Methodology
Presented by Mr. Gábor Hámori
airLED - Master class event in Bologna, 12-13 and 14
February 2014
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
• The statistical decision support model as a
part of airLED project, conducted by the
responsible Partner, namely the municipality
of Budapest district 18.
• The conception of the statistical model was
approved by the responsible Partner. Current
status: construction of the database.
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Milestones of the conception
I. Defining airport catchment area
II. Selecting initial set of Latent variables: determining the relevant statistical dimensions of the
economic development, compilation of data
III. Database testing
IV. Refinement of the model estimate: recalculation and iteration, finalization of indicators
V. Analysis of economic indicators of airport companies
VI. Time series analysis of the final socio-economic indicators
VII. Define the predictive model
VIII. Modeling tool for transnational use
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Milestone I
• I. Statistical definition of the Impact zones.
 Direct and indirect impact zones are in the scope of the model
according to the Status Quo analysis. In the area of BUD Airport the
direct impact zone consist of 6 Budapest districts 7 towns, and further
17 Budapest districts and 39 towns are related to the indirect impact
zone. All together these 69 districts and towns are the observation
units (statistical population) of the cross sectional database (2011
now).
 In the database all units are marked by the impact zone status (direct
or indirect).
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Milestone II
• II. Collecting the socio-economic dimensions (latent factors) and the
related manifest variables of the impact zone of the BUD-Airport.
 Issue of data collection:
 Completness: Those data are appropriate which are available for all units, and all of
the relevant data need to be collected.
 Non-Redundancy : Avoid the redundancy among the information
 Try to collect time series data for all towns included in the analysis.
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Initial latent socio-economic variables
1.
Demographic characteristics, geographical conditions
2.
Employment, unemployment
3.
Population income producing ability
4.
Transportation infrastructure
5.
Commercial infrastructure
6.
Tourism, catering
7.
Revenue generating capacity of municipalities
8.
Economic activity of business
9.
Income generating capacity of enterprises
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Initial manifest socio-economic variables
1.
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2.
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Demographic characteristics, geographical conditions
Resident population
Population density (per km2)
Migration to settlement per thousand inhabitants
Migration from settlement per thousand inhabitants
Children per hundred people in active age
Elderly per hundred active age
Territory of the settlement (hectare)
Employment, unemployment
Employees
Registered jobseekers
Persons with low educational attainment
The number of registered unemployed per 100 working-age population
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Initial manifest socio-economic variables
3.
Population income producing ability
• All domestic income (HUF)
• All domestic income per one person resident population
• All income per one person resident population deviation from the national
average
• 1 per taxpayer domestic income
• Personal income tax per one inhabitant
• Personal income tax per one taxpayer
4.
Transportation infrastructure
• Public roads within the settlement area
• Length of public urban roads
• Municipal roads and public space within the settlement area
• Length of municipal roads and public space
• Optimized path length of time
• Settlement terrestrial connectivity indicators
• Settlement aerial connectivity indicators
• Settlement of ground connection capacity
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Initial manifest socio-economic variables
5.
Commercial infrastructure
• The number of retail shops
• The number of wholesale warehouses
6.
Tourism, catering
• Capacity of public accommodation establishments, specific indicators
• Tourists and tourism nights in public accomodation , specific indicators
7.
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Revenue generating capacity of municipalities
Local business tax, specific indicators
Property(building) tax, specific indicators
Land tax, specific indicators
Communal tax (entrepreneurs and individuals), specific indicators
Tourism tax, specific indicators
Ceded central taxes (vehicle tax), specific indicators
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Initial manifest socio-economic variables
8.
Economic activity of business
• Number of registered corporations by industries
• The number of taxpayers per tax category
• Economic structure – number of corporations, employees, income by industries
9.
Income generating capacity of enterprises
• Gross value added
• Total value added per 1 person resident population deviation from the GDP per capita
• Profit after tax
• Incomes of individual entrepreneurs
• Taxes paid
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Milestones III-VI
• III. Testing the database, exploration of the direction and the intensity of
causual relationship between the indicators with Structural Equation
Modeling (SEM) metodology, filtering out the non relevant variables,
further data collection in the case of necessity, testreport .
• IV. Definition of the model, recalculation (refinement), documentation of
the final structure of the indicators.
• V. Time series analysis of statistical and ecomomic indicators of the
airport.
• VI. Time series analysis of the final socio-economic indicators derived from
town(district)-database.
•
The final socio-economic indicators of the airport data and the town (district) database
may relate for the same time period.
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Milestone VII
• VII.
The predictive model
– Analysis of the time series of statistical and
economic indicators of the airport and socioeconomic indicator set of the towns (districts) in a
joint modell
– Forecasting of predictors
– Estimation of the target variables of a certain
town (local taxes, employment) by the forecasted
predictors.
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Transnational application of the
model
• The definition of the relevant socio-economic indicators of the
impact zones and the related modeling activity based on
different available hungarian database.
• Collection of analogous indicators recommended for the
participant countries in the project. These indicators may have
local characteristics.
• Following tables show the variables (indicators) proposed by
the Status Quo evaluation.
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Index group
Population
Business activity
Tourism
Revenues
Housing
Airport
Variables
Data on catchment areas
Aspect
Period
Population
Net migration in and out of the area
Number of people in employment
Number of registered unemployed people by sex
Number of permanent residents
Residents by age cohorts and sex
Number of active companies by NACE sectors
Proportion of active companies in Budapest in various sectors
Number of people in employment by NACE sector
HUN,PC,BP
PC,BP
HUN,PC,BP
HUN,PC,BP
HUN,PC,BP
HUN,PC,BP
HUN,PC,BP
BP
HUN,PC,BP
2004-2011
2004-2011
2008-2012
2004-2011
2004-2011
2004-2011
2004-2011
2008-2010
2004-2012
Profile of the business and office parks in the close catchment area of the airport
Total net take-up in the surveyed areas
Total FDI flows in Hungary broken down by economic activities, net
Share of services within total FDI flows into Hungary
Number of international conferences
Number of delegates and nationalities at international conferences
Hungary’s and Budapest’s rank in the international ranking of conference locations
Foreign visitors to Hungary by country
Number of foreign visitors to Hungary by country of origin
Number of foreign guests in collective tourist accommodation establishments
Capacity of collective tourist accomodation establishments
Nights spent by foreign guests in collective tourist accomodation establishments
Number of rooms in four- and five-star hotels
Utilization of rooms in hotels
EU funds to Hungary in the latest budget periods: funds which can be applied for
EU funds to Central Hungary in the 2007-2013 budget period, by priority themes,
(HUF): funds which have been istributed
Administrative income at the local level
Number of new dwelling and new housing space in square metres
Construction permits shifted forward by 3 quarters and occupancy permits
Share of existing legally declared for ms of environmental protection in the direct
and in direct impact zone of the airport
BP
BP
HUN
HUN
HUN,BP
HUN
HUN,BP
HUN
HUN
HUN,PC,BP
HUN,PC,BP
HUN,PC,BP
HUN,PC,BP
HUN,BP
HUN
NA
2008-2012
2008-2011
2008-2011
2004-2012
2004-2012
2011
2012
2004-2012
2004-2011
2004-2011
2004-2011
2008-2012
2004-2011
2007-2020
C-HUN
HUN,PC,BP
HUN,PC,BP
HUN
Catchment
area
2007-2013
2004-2011
2004-2011
1995-2013
NA
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Index group
A
i
r
p
o
r
t
Variables
Aspect
Data on BUD Airport and environment
Share of respective groups of land in the area of restricted
use
BUD Airport
Number of people inhabiting the area of restricted use
BUD Airport
Carried out and planned investments inside the borders of
the airport and in its impact area
BUD Airport
Share of lands with diverse uses – actual situation
BUD Airport
Share of land with diverse uses – final state according to
the airport master plan
BUD Airport
Change of share of areas with diverse functions
BUD Airport
Period
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Passenger traffic at Hungarian airports
HUN,BUD Airport
2010
Cargo traffic at Hungarian airports
Passenger traffic at Hungarian airports
HUN,BUD Airport
HUN,BUD Airport
2010
2004-2010
Cargo traffic at Hungarian airports
Passenger and cargo traffic at Budapest Airports
HUN,BUD Airport
BUD Airport
2004-2010
2004-2010
Monthly passenger traffic in Budapest Airports
BUD Airport
2010-2011
Monthly cargo traffic in Budapest Airport
BUD Airport
Authorities with headquarters (HungaroControl) or
offices (Airport Police Department, Tax and Custom Office
and the Transport Safety Authority) at the airport site
BUD Airport
2010-2011
Companies at the Budapest Airport by profile
BUD Airport Air connectivity
Volume and trend of the yearly air cargo to and from the
airport in the past 10 years
Existing services at the airport
2011
BUD Airport
BUD Airport
2011
NA
BUD Airport
BUD Airport
2002-2012
NA
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.
Preliminary data collection concept for the
partner region
• The set of indicators will be finalized on Hungarian databases. In
this step the partner regions do not have to provide any kind of
data.
• The finalized set of indicators related to the impact zone will be
sent to the partner regions. These indicators should be sent for the
available time periods then. The indicators are not country-specific,
so they likely to be available in each partner region.
• The forecasting model requires turnover time series data of the
project related partner-airports for the available time period.
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.