Recap of 2008 Presidential Election Results,
Explaining Obama’s Win, Other Ballot Items
Dan Nataf
Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues,
Anne Arundel Community College
Nov. 10, 2008
Presentation goals
• Review election results in historical
perspective
• Why did Obama win – was it
inevitable?
• Other ballot items
Popular Vote Percentages: 1964-2008
Actual Votes: 1972-2008
140,000,000
121,069,054
120,000,000
119,703,613
103,758,127
100,000,000
92,032,82490,696,073
80,000,000
101,455,899
86,601,112
79,980,51579,383,345
76,341,932
60,000,000
50,999,897
54,455,472
64249073
62,040,610
59,028,444
55454540
48,886,597
47,402,35750,456,002
44,909,806
43,903,230
41,809,476
40,831,881
39,148,634
39,104,50039,198,755
37,577,352
35,480,115
47,168,710
40,000,000
Perot Vote in 1992 was 19,743,821
29,173,222
Total Vote
Dem Vote
20,000,000
Rep Vote
3rd Party
0
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Electoral College
1968, 1976, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004
Electoral College 2008
Electoral College Votes 1972-2008
600
500
525
520
489
426
400
370
300
379
297
364
271
240
286
252
267
200
168
173
159
111
100
49
0
17
1972
13
1976
1980
Dem EC Vote
1984
1988
Rep EC Vote
1992
1996
Dem EC Vote
2000
2004
Rep EC Vote
2008
Explanations for Obama’s Win - Was a
Democratic Win Inevitable?
• Generic election, “retrospective voting”
OR
• Candidate effect
• Policy effect
• Campaign strategy effect
• Uncontrolled events during the campaign
An Inevitable Democratic Win …
• Generic Election, Retrospective Voting
− Verdict on the incumbent party
− Party voting dominates
− President’s job approval filters votes
− Forecast models say economic conditions, job
approval and incumbency (years in office)
predetermine outcome
Implications: no affirmative policy mandate other
than ‘be better than Bush’
• Results oriented mandate
An Inevitable Democratic Win…Common
Assumption
“The political environment could not have been
worse: an unpopular incumbent; an unpopular,
costly war; and an economic calamity.”
Ed Rodgers (WH Staffer to R. Reagan and G. H. W.
Bush).
“McCain swam upstream against a hugely
unpopular Republican president, a horribly
unpopular Republican Party and an unpopular war.”
Alex Castellanos
(Romney consultant, McCain adviser).
An Inevitable Democratic Win…Common
Assumption
Hypothesis 1: If a generic election, results will be
anticipated well in advance of election day.
• Confirmed:
− 6 of 9 political scientists said Obama would
win…72-300 days PRIOR to the election
− Range of victory 50.1-58.4 percent
− Others: 2 ‘tied’ one at 49 percent
− General ‘mean’ prediction: 52-53 percent –
− Results 52-53 percent Obama.
An Inevitable Democratic Win…
Generic Election
Hypothesis 2: If a generic election, voters will stick to
their party identifications when voting.
Mostly Confirmed
Percent
Party
Obama
McCain
Other/NA
89
10
1
39
Democrat
32
Republican
9
90
1
29
Independent
52
44
4
(Data from exit polls)
An Inevitable Democratic Win…
Generic Election – Retrospective Voting
Hypothesis 3: If a generic election, retrospective voters
who disapprove of President Bush’s job performance
will defect and vote for the Democratic candidate.
Mostly confirmed
Percent
27
71
Do you approve…
Obama
McCain
Other/NA
Approve
10
89
1
Disapprove
67
31
2
(Data from exit polls)
Retrospective Voting:
Bush’s job approval by party - AA County
100
87
90
79
80
74
69
70
60
88
57
62
62
57
56
35
35
28
30
Disapprove
No opinion
31
26
24
9
10
8
24
19
18
20
10
Approve
48
43
50
40
73
4
9
5 6 6
9
11
9
12
7
3
0
Fall
Spring
Overall
Fall
Fall
Spring
Democrats
Fall
Fall
Spring
Fall
Republicans
Fall
Spring
Unaffiliated
Fall
An Inevitable Democratic Win…
Generic Election – Retrospective Voting
• Partisan allegiance and Bush job approval (CSLI poll)
Percent
Party
Obama
McCain
Other/NA
3
Democrat approve
23
77
0
18
Republican approve
7
7
4
Independent approve
0
84
61
39
37
Democrat disapprove
7
11
20
Republican disapprove
82
19
63
18
11
Independent disapprove
43
23
36
An Inevitable Democratic Win…
Generic Election – Retrospective Voting
Hypothesis 4: In a generic election, the incumbent party is
systemically behind the challenger party - Mostly confirmed
Not inevitable?
Candidate affirmation and symbolic effects
• Candidate affirmation/Symbol – implies “trustee” mandate
“I…almost lost it when I saw Obama standing there on the [victory
speech] stage with his family…I thought of the mind-blowing imagery
we will see when this young beautiful black family becomes the
nation’s First Family….and this reaction I’m trying to describe isn’t really
about Obama’s policies. I’ll disagree with some of his decisions…this
moment has less to do with Obama than with the nation.”
(Eugene Robinson WP editorial writer)
“Obama has a wonderful temperament. He knows he has to build real
relationships for anything to happen. He doesn’t have them now, but
his instincts are perfect.”
(Chris Dodd, Senator D – Conn)
“McCain’s campaign created a great narrative, a great story, but it
was only about John McCain…”
(Alex Castellanos)
Not inevitable?
Candidate affirmation and symbolic effects
− Candidate temperament, intellect, image,
judgment, background
− Conveyed by:
• Ads and convention messages
• Possible positive effects of debates, long
primaries
• Observed performance under pressure
Not inevitable?
Candidate vs. policy affirmation
− Policies advocated widely known and positively evaluated by
voters (exit poll) – implies policy mandate
− Hypothesis 5: A generic election will feature most voters attracted to the
challenger due more to policy differences than the personal qualities of the
candidate. Confirmed
What mattered most?
Obama
McCain
Issues
60
38
Personal qualities
39
59
Policy
Obama
McCain
Economy (63%)
53
44
Iraq (10%)
59
39
Terrorism (9%)
13
86
Health care (9%)
73
26
Energy policy (7%)
50
46
Not inevitable?
Campaign strategy effects
− Hypothesis 6: In a generic election, the challenger party candidate
focuses on ‘change’ while the incumbent party candidate tries to
distance himself from his party and its policies.
− Obama: “You really are George Bush – you just don’t know it”
•
•
•
•
Emphasize ‘change’
Play up ‘consensus’ vision, pragmatic approach to policy making
Discount ‘inside the Beltway’ experience
Play it safe – middle class appeal, always applaud McCain’s service to the
country – depersonalize the race
• Raise lots of money
• Hope for unexpected endorsements
− McCain: “I am NOT George Bush”
•
•
•
•
Emphasize ‘maverick’ status, also ‘change agent’
Focus on policy splits from Republicans/Bush
Comparative personal biographies – personalize the race
Take chances – “suspend campaign,” pick Palin
Not inevitable?
Campaign strategy effects
Critics assumed that McCain could have run a generic
campaign and won or that the race was lost due to
certain tactical mistakes…
“The Republicans chose tactics – the ‘celebrity ad,’
the choice of Sarah Palin, suspending the
campaign – designed to win the news cycle rather
than sticking to a strategy that could win the
election.”
(Carter Eskew, Gore 2000 chief strategist)
Not inevitable?
Campaign strategy effects
Could ONE BIG tactical difference really have
changed the outcome?
“Had McCain voted against the bailout of Wall Street
firms and backed the Republican alternative, there
is no question in my mind he would have won.
[Rather than embracing the Bush bailout backed by
the Democrats] America was waiting for him to
speak out against excessive government spending
and against bailing out the Wall Street firms for
their greed.”
(Dick Morris, Fox News contributor)
Not inevitable?
Campaign strategy effects
Were the ‘controversial’ decisions likely to have
been decisive?
“The McCain campaign added to all of the negative
circumstances: McCain’s decision to suspend his
campaign and rush back to Washington to
associate himself with an unpopular…Wall Street
“bailout” was inexplicable. Sarah Palin never fully
recovered from her interview with Katie Couric.
How could that possibly have been a good idea?”
(Ed Rogers)
Not inevitable?
Uncontrolled events
• Were uncontrolled events reinforcing or challenging
the generic model? – mostly reinforcing
− Main events:
•Iraq – surge works
− McCain says ‘I told you so’
− Obama says ‘My approach (get out soon) is
more relevant than ever’
•Economy tanks
− Obama says ‘Bush economics got us here –
do you want four more years of the same?’
− McCain says ‘Suspend the campaign!’
Not inevitable?
Uncontrolled events
80
CSLI Fall 2008 Survey
71
70
60
Applies Spring 2008
61
59
Applies Fall 2008
58
56
50
50
47
40
40
35
32
30
30
21
20
15
11
11
10
0
6
4
0
Significant
Wages or
Hard to afford Hard to afford Hard to afford Health care
Facing the
Unable to find
losses in stocks salaries are not cost of taxes cost of utilities
cost of
insurance is
possibility of
affordable
or retirement rising as fast as
such as
transportation unavailable, unemployment
housing
accounts
the cost of
electricity or
too expensive
living
gas
or inadequate
Facing the
possibility of
house
foreclosure or
loss
Putting it all together…
Couric/Palin
interviews
54
Votes on
bailout bills in
Congress
Sept. 24 McCain
suspends
campaign, to skip
debate?
52
50
48
46 46
45
44
45
50
3rd debate Oct. 15
Obama
Second debate Oct. 7
46
45
44
44
First debate Sept 26
22-Sep
46
VP debate Oct. 2
Lehman bankruptcy looms
42
AIG bad news
40
15-Sep
50
48
47
46
50
49
Post Rep
conventio
48n bounce
5252
29-Sep
44
43
43
6-Oct
13-Oct
20-Oct
44
43
27-Oct
3-Nov
McCain
Retrospective except for…
Race
White (74%)
African-American (13%)
Latino (9%)
Asian (2%)
Other (3%)
Obama McCain
Other
43%
95%
67%
62%
66%
55%
4%
31%
35%
31%
2%
1%
2%
3%
3%
66%
52%
50%
45%
32%
46%
49%
53%
2%
2%
1%
2%
Age
18-29 (18%)
30-44 (29%)
45-64 (37%)
65 and Older (16%)
Retrospective except for…
Income
Under $15,000 (6%)
Obama McCain Other/
NA
73%
25%
2%
$15-30,000 (12%)
60%
37%
3%
$30-50,000 (19%)
55%
43%
2%
$50-75,000 (21%)
48%
49%
3%
$75-100,000 (15%)
51%
48%
1%
$100-150,000 (14%)
48%
51%
1%
$150-200,000 (6%)
48%
50%
2%
$200,000 or More (6%)
52%
46%
2%
Other/N
McCain
A
35%
2%
Education Level
No High School (4%)
Obama
63%
H.S. Graduate (20%)
52%
46%
2%
Some College (31%)
51%
47%
2%
College Graduate (28%)
50%
48%
2%
Postgraduate (17%)
58%
40%
2%
Harris by County
0.58
Harris Vote by County
0.44
0.30
Pushpins
Election Recap 2008
Harris Vote by County
1st Congressional
Kratovil
Harris
Libertarian
Obama
McCain
Kratovil+
Anne Arundel
46.3%
51.2%
2.5%
48.9%
51.1%
-2.6%
Baltimore County
40.7%
56.9%
2.4%
56.8%
43.2%
-16.1%
Caroline
51.8%
45.1%
3.1%
37.9%
62.1%
13.8%
Cecil
49.4%
47.5%
3.1%
42.4%
57.6%
7.0%
Dorchester
56.4%
40.7%
2.9%
45.5%
54.5%
10.9%
Harford
40.5%
56.7%
2.8%
40.2%
59.8%
0.4%
Kent
65.5%
32.7%
1.8%
50.0%
50.0%
15.5%
Queen Anne’s
54.0%
44.2%
1.8%
36.1%
63.9%
17.9%
Somerset
59.0%
39.2%
1.8%
48.6%
51.4%
10.4%
Talbot
55.0%
43.1%
1.9%
44.6%
55.4%
10.4%
Wicomico
56.0%
42.0%
2.0%
46.8%
53.2%
9.2%
Worcester
53.2%
44.8%
2.0%
42.1%
57.9%
11.1%
Total
49.1%
48.5%
2.4%
45.0%
55.0%
4.1%
Presence of Slots by State
Slots, usually within casinos
No slots
Limited slots
Legalize Slots 2008 – by County
slots by County
68%
59%
50%
Maryland/AA
County (same)
For 59%
Against 41%
States with Early Voting/Absentee
No excuse
absentee
Excused
absentee
States with In-person No Excuse Early Voting
Maryland Vote: For 72% Against 28% Anne Arundel County: For 63%
Against 37%
All mail
No excuse early
voting
No early
voting
Questions A/B – Charter Amendments,
• To amend the Charter of Anne Arundel County to clarify that any
ordinance passed by the County Council and returned unsigned by
the County Executive after the ten day presentation period will
become law on the tenth day.
Vote: For
106,566 (48.4%)
Against 113,462 (51.6%)
• To amend the Charter of Anne Arundel County to provide that the
County Council shall nominate for appointment by the County
Executive three of the seven members of the Ethics Commission.
Vote: For
145,150 (67%)
Against 71,314 (33%)