Thinking Like a Scientist
Goals of Psychology
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•
•
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Describe
Explain
Predict
Control
behavior and mental processes
Or to Put it Another Way…
•
•
•
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Describe
Control
Understand/Explain/Interpret
Predict
• Don’t Eat Purple Cheese!
Why is Research
Important?
Research and Research Methodology
• Method of asking questions then drawing
logical supported conclusions
• Researchers need to be able to determine if
conclusions are reasonable or not (critical
thinking).
• Candace Newmaker “Rebirthing” therapy
example
Scientific Method
• Technique using tools such as
observation, experimentation, and
statistical analysis to learn about the
world
• Through its use, psychology is
thereby considered a science.
Steps to the Scientific Method
• Formulate testable questions
– Develop hypotheses
• Design study to collect data
– Experimental
– Descriptive
• Analyze data to arrive at conclusions
– Use of statistical procedures
– Use of meta-analysis
• Report results
– Publication
– Replication
Theory
• Tentative explanation for observed findings
• Results from accumulation of findings of
individual studies
• Tool for explaining observed behavior
• Reflects self-correcting nature of scientific
method.
• Good way to think about a Theory:
Prosecuting Attorney presents their theory
backed up by evidence to the jury.
What are the Odds of Each?
What are the Odds of Each?
1 in 2,598,960
What are the Odds of Each?
1 in 2,598,960
1 in 2,598,960
Common Sense
• Conclusions based solely on personal
experience and sensible logic
• Can lead to incorrect conclusions because:
– People interpret what common sense means
differently
– You may be missing important information
that would help you come to a reasonable
conclusion
Did you know…
• It is nearly impossible to fold a regular
sheet of paper in half more than 7 times.
• Go ahead and try!
• Mythbusters pulled it off with a piece of
paper as big as an airplane hanger and a
steam roller.
Science vs. Common Sense
• Science helps build explanations that are
consistent and predictive rather than
conflicting and describing the past
(hindsight)
• Science is based on
–
–
–
–
knowledge of facts
developing theories
testing hypotheses
public and repeatable procedures
• Common Sense is based on prior experience
Hindsight Bias
• The Tendency to exaggerate one’s ability to have foreseen how something
would turn out after learning the outcome.
• The “I knew it all along” phenomenon.
• Week before the 1985 Super Bowl, 81% of Dr. Brigham’s students predicted
the Miami Dolphins would win. 40% said the Dolphins would win by 10 or
more points.
• A week after San Fransisco 49ers decisive victory, he asked the group who
picked the 49ers.
• 58% said they picked the 49ers
• NO ONE remembered saying the Dolphins would win by at least 10 points.
Overconfidence
• Tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our
current knowledge
• We are more confident than we are correct.
• “Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all
future scientific advances.” - Lee DeForest,
inventor of vacuum tube, 1957
• “Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably
be a reality within 10 years.” - Alex Lewyt,
manufacturer of vacuum cleaners, 1955
• “Reagan doesn’t have the presidential look.” United Artist Executive in turning Reagan down
for the starring role in The Best Man, 1964.
Confirmation Bias
• Our tendency to search for information that
confirms our preconceptions.
• Try this card trick: http://www.caveofmagic.com/
• This works because we only look for our chosen
card confirming Simeon’s mental telepathy and
ignore the fact that second set of cards is in fact,
an entirely new set!
• NONE of the cards in the new set is the same as
the old one so of course the card you picked is
missing.
DAILY
DOUBLE
QUESTION
What is the difference between
Common Sense and Science?
ANSWER:
Common sense relies on the past and
may be wrong.
Science uses facts to provide
consistent predictions
BOREDOM BUSTER!
Common Sense tells us squirrels are
harmless…
OR ARE THEY?
RUNNING OF THE SQUIRRELS