Metodos e Ferramentas para
Modelagem Preditiva de
Especies
19-20 June 2002
Campinas, S.P., Brasil
Large-scale Ecology
 Most organismal ‘ecology’ done at small spatial scales
(>80%  ~1 m2)
 Systematics – large scale, but no ecology!
 Critical nature of large-scale applications
– Whole-geographic-range phenomena
 E.g., potential for invasion
 E.g., climate change effects
– Effects of biogeography, history
 Mars vs leaves
– Emergent properties at larger scales
 Need for a new perspective that bridges between
ecology and systematics, and takes a large-scale view
of biodiversity
Humboldt
Malaspina
EUROPEAN EXPEDITIONS IN THE 18TH CENTURY
NATURAL HISTORY MUSEUM, PARIS, FRANCE
Lesson
Lafresnaye
Swainson
Strickland
PRE-DARWININAN
SYSTEMATISTS OF
THE 18TH AND 19TH
CENTURIES
Hartlaub
Gray
Cassin
DESCRIBING BIODIVERSITY AFTER DARWIN
Mearns
Xantus
Craveri
SOLDIERS AND EXPLORERS
AMERICAN MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY, NY, USA
Boucard
IMMIGRANT NATURALISTS
Botteri
Hartert
Salvadori
Sclater
Sharpe
CATALOGUE
OF BRITISH
MUSEUM
BIRDS
Osbert Salvin
F. DuCane Godman
THE BIOLOGIA CENTRALI-AMERICANA
NATURAL HISTORY MUSEUM, TRING, ENGLAND
Dugès
Villada
Herrera
SOCIEDAD MEXICANA DE HISTORIA NATURAL
E. W. Nelson
E. A. Goldman
THE UNITED STATES BIOLOGICAL SURVEY
A. J. Van Rossem
A. Wetmore
Systematics
in the 20th
century
H. Oberholser
W. De Witt Miller
Wilmot W. Brown’s Specimens, World Museum
R. T. Moore
A. Miller
The Check-list
of Mexican
Birds
H. Friedmann
L. Griscom
Chester Lamb’s specimens, Moore Lab. of Zoology
Allan Phillips
Miguel Alvarez del Toro
Eduardo Caballero
Research at the
National
University in
Mexico
Rafael Martín del Campo
G. Lowery
C. G. Sibley
R. W. Storer
New
Explorations
in Mexico
G. M. Sutton
A. S. Leopold
The new generation
of ornithologists
MUSEO DE ZOOLOGÍA, UNAM, MEXICO CITY
BIRDS OF MEXICO IN THE “WORLD MUSEUM”
Biases
Knowledge of Biodiversity
Frequency
Species with
point
information
Species with
detailed
autecological
studies across Species with
physiological
geography
data
Knowledge of biology
Europa
2%
Reptiles mexicanos
ND Canadá
5%
1%
México
21%
EUA
72%
Fuente: 17 bases de datos pertenecientes al SNIB
Fish
University of Florida
Fish
Tulane University
Fish
University of Michigan
Fish
“World Museum”
Gaps in Knowledge of Biodiversity
Inferring into Gaps with
Predictive Modeling
Mario del Toro Aviles – all
specimens
Mario del Toro Aviles – 1936 October
Mario del Toro Aviles – 1937 July
Mario del Toro Aviles – 1949 June
7 June
2-4 June
6 June
19-22 June
16 June
Availability
The Species Analyst
http://speciesanalyst.net
REMIB
http://www.conabio.gob.mx
SpeciesLink (Brasil!)
http://www.cria.org.br
77 Participating Institutions I
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Academy of Natural Sciences, Philadelphia
Agriculture Canada
American Museum of Natural History
Arizona State University
Auburn University Museum
Australian Museum
Bell Museum, University of Minnesota
Bernice P. Bishop Musem
Brigham Young University
Burke Museum, University of Washington
California Academy of Sciences
California Weeds
Canadian Museum of Nature
Carnegie Museum of Natural History
Cornell University Museum of Vertebrates
Departamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biociências, USP
Departamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biologia, Unicamp
Departamento de Entomologia, Fitopatologia e Zoologia Agrícola, ESALQ/USP
ECOSUR
EMAN-Frog Watch
Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Riberão Preto (USP)
Field Museum of Natural History
Florida State Museum
Gulf Coast Research Laboratory Museum, University of Southern Mississippi
Illinois Natural History Survey
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77 Participating Institutions II
Instituto Biológico de Campinas, Centro Experimental
Instituto de Biologia, UNAM
Instituto de Botânica
Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad
Instituto Nacional Politecnico
Los Angeles County Natural History Museum
Louisiana State University Museum of Natural Science
Michigan State University Museum
Milwaukee Public Museum
Museu de Zoologia, USP (MZUSP)
Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris
Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University
Museum of Southwestern Biology, University of New Mexico
Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley
Nebraska State Museum
Real Jardin Botanico, Madrid
Redpath Museum, McGill University
Royal Ontario Museum
San Diego Natural History Museum
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Slater Museum, University of Puget Sound
Swedish Museum of Natural History
Texas A&M University
Texas Natural History Collections
Texas Tech University Museum
Tulane University Natural History Museum
77 Participating Institutions III
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U.S. Breeding Bird Survey
U.S. National Museum of Natural History
UNAM-Facultad de Ciencias
UNAM-Institution de Biologia
UNAM-Instituto de Ecologia
UNESP, Campus de São José do Rio Preto
Universidad Autonoma de Chapingo
Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon
Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana
Universidad de Sonora
University of Alabama Ichthyological Collection
University of Alaska Museum
University of Alberta Museum
University of Arizona
University of Colorado Museum
University of Georgia Museum
University of Kansas Natural History Museum
University of Michigan Museum of Zoology
University of Nevada - Reno
University of Oklahoma Museum
University of Texas, Arlington
University of Texas, Austin
University of Texas, El Paso
Utah Museum of Natural History
Yale Peabody Museum
TSA Use I
70000
Monthly Use of TSA
60000
Number of hits
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Feb-99 May-99 Aug-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Nov-01
Date
TSA Geographic Distribution of
Use
Biodiversity Information
 Biases
–
–
–
–
–
Presence-only
Distributed nature
Gaps of unknown significance
Skewed distribution of knowledge
Bias with respect to geography (ecology?)
 Challenges
–
–
–
–
–
Computerization
Georeferencing
Identification
Precision
AVAILABILITY/ACCESS (how much in country?)
Factors that Limit Species’
Distributions
 History
– Limited dispersal
– Speciation
– Extinction
 Ecology
– Abiotic environment
– Biotic environment
 Interactions
–
–
–
–
Competition
Predation
Parasitism
Mutualisms
Digital Elevation Models
Climate Data
Climate Change over Last Century
Climate Change over Next Century
Satellite Data and LULC Data
Environmental Combinations China
Environmental Combinations –
North America