The Presidential Election Cycle
in the U.S.A.
What are elections like in America?
• 3 kinds: regional/local, congressional,
Presidential
• (est. 80,000 different kinds of elections in
America / year)
2 kinds in a Presidential election:
1. Primary-Caucus elections—contests
within a party
2. General election—contest between a
party
Steps in the Process
1. Campaigning and fundraising-throughout
2. Caucuses and Primaries
3. Political party conventions
4. Election Day
5. Vote of the Electoral College
League of Women Voters of
Massachusetts Citizen Education
Fund
3
The “Time for a Change”
factor in presidential elections
Political Scientist Alan I. Abramowitz:
• “Since WW II there have been 7 presidential
elections in which a party had held the White
House for just one term. The incumbent party's
candidate won 6 out of 7 (only Carter lost)
with an average popular vote margin of 11.6
percent.
• There have been 8 elections in which a party
had held the White House for two terms or
more. The incumbent party's candidate won
only 2 and lost 6 with an average popular vote
margin of -0.9 percent.”
• “… there is about a 5 point penalty if you've
held the White House for 8 years or longer”
Two Kinds of Campaign Issues
• Position issues (crunchy elections)
– rival candidates have opposing views,
– voters are divided and a partisan realignment
may result
• Position issues in 2000: social security, defense, public
school choice systems
• Valence issues: (squishy elections)
– candidate supports the public, widely held view
– Dominated the 1996 election
– Increasingly important because television leads
to a reliance on popular symbols and admired
images
The Electoral Process
(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Many Democrats
seek their party’s
nomination
Campaigns
& Debates
Candidates
“Throw Their Hat
Into The Ring”
Many Republicans
seek their party’s
nomination
Campaigns
& Debates
The Electoral Process
(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Many Democrats
seek their party’s
nomination
Campaigns
& Debates
Primaries &
Caucuses
Primaries & caucuses
held in each state
Candidates
“Throw Their Hat
Into The Ring”
Many Republicans
seek their party’s
nomination
• Iowa holds the 1st
caucus (Jan. 3, 2008)
• New Hampshire holds
the 1st primary (Jan. 8,
2008)
Campaigns
& Debates
Primaries &
Caucuses
The Electoral Process
(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Many Democrats
seek their party’s
nomination
Campaigns
& Debates
Primaries &
Caucuses
Primaries & caucuses
held in each state
Candidates
“Throw Their Hat
Into The Ring”
Many Republicans
seek their party’s
nomination
Obama
secures the
nomination
• Iowa holds the 1st
caucus (Jan. 3, 2008)
• New Hampshire holds
the 1st primary (Jan. 8,
2008)
Campaigns
& Debates
Primaries &
Caucuses
McCain
secures the
nomination
The Electoral Process
(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Many Democrats
seek their party’s
nomination
Campaigns
& Debates
Primaries &
Caucuses
Primaries & caucuses
held in each state
Candidates
“Throw Their Hat
Into The Ring”
Many Republicans
seek their party’s
nomination
Obama
secures the
nomination
Obama selects
Biden as his
running mate
McCain
secures the
nomination
McCain selects
Palin as his
running mate
• Iowa holds the 1st
caucus (Jan. 3, 2008)
• New Hampshire holds
the 1st primary (Jan. 8,
2008)
Campaigns
& Debates
Primaries &
Caucuses
The Electoral Process
(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Convention held in Denver
(Aug. 25 – 28, 2008)
Parties Hold National Conventions
• Develop the party platform
• Speeches are given in support of
the nominee (a pep rally)
• Delegates vote & the nominee is
officially announced
Convention held in
Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)
The Electoral Process
(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Convention held in Denver
(Aug. 25 – 28, 2008)
Parties Hold National Conventions
• Develop the party platform
• Speeches are given in support of
the nominee (a pep rally)
• Delegates vote & the nominee is
officially announced
Convention held in
Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)
Candidates
campaign against
each other and
debate the issues
The Electoral Process
(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
General Election
Convention held in Denver
(Aug. 25 – 28, 2008)
• 1st Tues. after the
1st Mon. in Nov.
(Nov. 4, 2008)
Parties Hold National Conventions
• Develop the party platform
• Speeches are given in support of
the nominee (a pep rally)
• Delegates vote & the nominee is
officially announced
Convention held in
Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)
Candidates
campaign against
each other and
debate the issues
• The “popular
vote” is
conducted
• Eligible citizens
vote for the
“electors” for
Obama & McCain
The Electoral Process
(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Obama:
69,456,897
Popular Votes
General Election
Convention held in Denver
(Aug. 25 – 28, 2008)
• 1st Tues. after the
1st Mon. in Nov.
(Nov. 4, 2008)
Parties Hold National Conventions
• Develop the party platform
• Speeches are given in support of
the nominee (a pep rally)
• Delegates vote & the nominee is
officially announced
Candidates
campaign against
each other and
debate the issues
• The “popular
vote” is
conducted
• Eligible citizens
vote for the
“electors” for
Obama & McCain
McCain:
59,934,814
Popular Votes
Convention held in
Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)
The Electoral Process
(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Obama: 365
Electoral Votes
Electoral College Votes
• 1st Mon. after the 2nd Wed.
in December (Dec. 15, 2008)
• Electors vote at their
respective state capitols
• Must receive 270 votes to
win
• Usually just a formality, the
results are not in doubt
McCain: 173
Electoral Votes
The Electoral Process
(Using Election 2008 as an Example)
Obama: 365
Electoral Votes
Electoral College Votes
• 1st Mon. after the 2nd Wed.
in December (Dec. 15, 2008)
• Electors vote at their
respective state capitols
• Must receive 270 votes to
win
• Usually just a formality, the
results are not in doubt
McCain: 173
Electoral Votes
Inauguration
• Occurs Jan. 20 at 12:00
(noon)
• Sworn-in by the Chief
Justice of the U.S. Supreme
Court
Narrowing the Field
• During and after the primary elections,
many candidates are forced to drop
out because of lack of support.
• National conventions serve to
nominate their party’s candidate for
president and vice president.
League of Women Voters of
Massachusetts Citizen Education
Fund
16
National Conventions
• Delegates attend the National Conventions
to cast their votes for a candidate.
• Democratic Party Convention August 25,
2008 in Denver, CO
• Republican Party Convention September 1,
2008 in St. Paul, MN
• Candidate with a majority of delegate votes
wins that party’s nomination for President.
• Vice Presidential candidates are chosen by
the Presidential nominee and are nominated
at the National Convention.
League of Women Voters of
Massachusetts Citizen Education
Fund
17
Republican Party Convention
•2,439 delegates are selected by state
primaries to the winning candidates
•662 delegates are unpledged.
•The convention floor will seat
approximately 5,500 delegates and
alternates.
League of Women Voters of
Massachusetts Citizen Education
Fund
18
Democratic Party Convention
3,515 pledged delegates selected by
primary voters and caucus participants
852 unpledged delegates, known as
superdelegates (DNC members, Members
of Congress, Governors, and other
important people in the party.
Pledged delegates are allocated among
the states in rough proportion to the votes
each state gave the Democratic
candidate in the last three Presidential
elections and the percentage of votes
each state has in the Electoral College.
League of Women Voters of
Massachusetts Citizen Education
Fund
19
Changes for the better?
• Why Iowa and New Hampshire? Small
populations = personalized campaigning
• 1968: 15 primaries spread from March
through June
• 2008: 40 primaries in a 2 month span (the
problem of frontloading)
• Super-Disaster Tuesday!
• Steamroller effect: winner of the 1st primary
wins the other bunched-up primaries
How do people vote?
• “It’s the economy, stupid!”
• V. 0. Key: most voters who switch parties do
so in their own interests
– They know what issues affect them personally.
– They have strong principles about certain issues
(abortion, etc.).
• Prospective voting is used by relatively few
voters.
– Those voters know the issues and vote
accordingly.
– Most common among activists and special
interest groups
How do people vote?
• Retrospective voting practiced by most voters, and
decides most elections
– Judge the incumbent’s performance and vote
accordingly
– Have things gotten better or worse, especially
economically?
• Reagan in 1980 debate
– Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988,
1992, 1996
– Usually helps incumbent.., unless economy has gotten
worse
– Midterm elections: voters turn against president’s party
• 2002 exception (war)
Debates
• Usually an advantage only to the
challenger
• Reagan in 1980:
– reassured voters by his performance
• 1988 primary debates with little impact
on voters
How does California select its electors?
On or before October 1 of the presidential
election year, each party's nominee must file
a list containing the names, addresses, and
telephone numbers of the 55 electors pledges
to him/her. Each party determines its own
method for selecting electors.
No incumbent Senators, congressional
representatives or persons holding an office of
trust or profit of the United States can serve as
electors.
What happens if the electoral vote is a tie?
The House of Representatives makes the
decision with each state having one vote.
Representatives of at least two-thirds of the
states must be present for the vote. If they
cannot decide by March 4, then the Vice
President become President and the person
receiving the largest number of Vice
President votes becomes Vice President.
Article 2 Section 1 of the United
States Constitution directs that “no
Senator or Representative, or person
holding an office of trust or profit
under the United States, shall be
appointed an elector. “
2008 Pennsylvania Certificate of Ascertainment of
Presidential Electors
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008-certificates/
There are a total of 538
electoral votes
(the District of
Columbia is not
a state but is
given 3
electoral votes)
48 out of the 50 states
have a “winner takes
all” method
If you get the most
votes in that state you
get ALL of their
electoral college votes
2 states are different and
can divide up their votes
based on congressional
district - Nebraska and
Maine
Does the EC influence campaigns?
It is possible to get
more votes overall in the
election from the entire
country and NOT be
elected President
Happened in 2000 with
Gore vs Bush
Total Votes in 2000 Election:
Bush
50,461,092 total votes
(47.9%)
271 Electoral Votes
Gore
50,994,086 total votes
(48.4%)
266 Electoral Votes
Nader
2,882,728 total votes
(2.7%)
0 Electoral College Votes
How can the winner lose?
Effects of Election on Policy
• Comparison: Great Britain, with
parliamentary system and strong
parties, often sees marked changes, as
in 1945 and 1951.
• Conclusion: Many American elections
do make differences in policy, though
constitutional system generally
moderates the pace of change.