Electoral College
• Why did we do this?
• Why do we still have it?
• What political interests are preserved
via Electoral College
• So, you want to be an Elector?
Electoral College
• What is it
– Constitutional compromise
– Indirect election of President
– Electing a group of people to select Head
of Government
Electoral College
• Brief History
• 1789, no such thing as national
elections
– Few people with national visibility
– No national media / communication
– Impossible to conduct national campaign
– No party system
• many potential candidates
Electoral College
• History
– 1789, not clear what the role of the President
would be
• An extension of Congress
• A Prime Minister
• No Big Deal, and they knew GW would be it
– Solution:
• Each state’s legislature pick group of people to
decide who to support
Electoral College
• Founder’s ‘solution’
• Article 2.1
– each state shall appoint, in a Manner as
the Legislature therof may direct, an
Number of Electors, equal to the whole
Number of Senators and Represenatives
– Meet in their state, cast votes for two
people, send votes to US Senate
Electoral College
• Founders’ solution
– Person with most votes is President,
person with 2nd most votes is VP
– If a tie, Congress decides
– Didn’t think that President and Vice
President might be enemies
Electoral College
• Early Problems
– States didn’t know what to do
– How appoint electors?
– 1789
• New York’s legislature couldn’t agree
• States didn’t know how to keep VP candidate
(Adams) from having as many votes as
Washington
Electoral College
• History / Problems
– 1789 method of selection
• 5 states used legislature to appoint (NY)
• MA appointed some by legislature, some by
legislature from list of top 2 candidates in each
Cong. district
• NH 5 electors selected by voters statewide
• VA 10 electors selected by voters in districts
• 1789, 1792 ‘unanimous’ elections
Electoral College
• Problems
– 1789 - 1800
• 6 of 12 states selected by popular vote
• states often split EC delegation
• Selection in 1789, 1796, 1800 not winner-takeall
• What might this cause?
Electoral College
• 1796 First ‘real’ contest
• 4 well known candidates
– Adams (Fed), Pinckney (Fed), Jefferson
(DR), Burr (DR)
– weak concept of party ‘running mate’
– If top 2 tied, goes to Congress
Electoral College
• 1796 Results (140 voters, 70 to win )
– Adams (F) 35,726 (53%) 71 EC votes
– Jefferson (D) 31,115 (47%) 69 EC votes
– Pinckney (F)
59 EC votes
– Burr (D)
30 EC votes
– Hamilton wanted Pinckney, got some SC
Electors to vote Jefferson / Pinkney
Electoral College
• Or, if this happened today:
– President Romney
– Vice President Biden
– President GW Bush
– Vice President Kerry
Electoral College
• 1796
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Adams (F) / Pinckney (F)
Jefferson (D) / Burr (D)
Jefferson (D) / S. Adams (D)
Adams (F) / Ellsworth (F)
Jefferson (D) / Pinckney (F)
Jefferson (D) / Clinton (D)
Adams (F) / Jay (F)
Adams (F) / Jefferson (D)
45 - 49
25 - 30
14 - 15
11
9 - 14
6- 7
5
1 -6
Electoral College
• 1800
– an accidental tie
– Result
•
•
•
•
•
Jefferson (DR)
Burr (DR)
Adams (F)
Pinckney (F)
Jay (F)
41,330 (61%)
25,952 (39%)
73 EC
73 EC
65 EC
64 EC
1 EC
Electoral College
• 1800
– Jefferson was supposed to be Dems top
choice, Burr # 2
– Tie goes to House of Reps
– ‘Lame Duck’ Federalists controlled
– 16 state delegations, each w/ 1 vote
• need majority (9 votes)
Electoral College
• 1800
– For one week, over 35 ballots, Jefferson
got just 8 votes
– Hamilton told Federalists Jefferson less
worse than Burr
– Federalists switch on 36th Ballot, Jefferson
wins
Electoral College
• 1804
– Burr runs for Governor of NY
• Hamilton smears Burr
– Burr gets even.
– Shoots Hamilton
– Hamilton dead
Electoral College
• 1804
• 12th Amendment
– Electors cast one vote for President
– Separate vote for Vice President
– Still up to Congress to break ties
Electoral College
• Developments since 1800s
– Popular voting more common post 1830
– National political parties
– Move toward ‘winner take all’ rules in
many states
• only 2 left that divide up Electors (NE, ME)
Electoral College
• Poor Record?
– 4 times populat vote winner different than
Electoral College:
• 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000
• twice (1824, 1876) Congress has had to select
President…came close in 1968
• 11 of 34 election had no popular vote majority
winner
Electoral College
• Current Issues
– Deadlines
– Apportionment
– Faithless electors
– Election failures
Electoral College
• How it works today
– need 270 Electors to win
– state delegation = number of members of
Congress
– Each candidate files a slate of trusted
electors w/ Secretary of State
– Electors pledged to support their candidate
Electoral College
• How it works today
– States decide how many electors each
candidate gets after popular vote
• nearly all states = winner take all
• Federal Law & Deadlines
– Electors meet at Capitol, December 13th
– Deadline for National Archives December
22nd
– Congress certifies election January 6th
Electoral College
• Deadlines
– created massive problem in 2000
• Florida recount, lawsuits taking weeks
• December 13 deadline looming
• Major factor forcing US Supreme Court to
intervene
Electoral College
• Apportionent
• Not by population
– Senate seats skew influence of smallest
states
• One EC vote in WY =
198,000 people
• One EC vote in VT =
200,000 people
• One EC vote in NY, CA
IL, FL, TX
= 600,000 people
Electoral College
• Apportionment
• 20 smallest states have 30m people
– they get 80 EC votes (44 if by population)
• AK, DE, DC, HI, ID, ME, MT, ND, NH, RI, SD, VT,
WY…NE, NM, WV, (Bold = 150%)
• NY+ NJ = 28m people
– they get 46 EC votes
• CA = 36m people
– it gets 55 EC votes
Electoral College
• Apportionment
• A structural partisan advantage?
• What are the politics of smallest states?
– Bush beat Gore by 13% in smallest states
• GW Bush won 61 of 84 small state
electors in 2000
Electoral College
• Apportionment
– if allocated by population, GOP candidates
win 20 fewer EC votes 2000 & 2004
– or, GOP candidates started w/ a built-in 20
EC vote head start given political
geography
– Change after re-apportionment 2010
Electoral College
• Apportionment
• What are the reasons for overrepresenting small states in the EC
– Today, what purpose is served?
Electoral College
• Faithless Electors
– might be the least of our worries
– rare, typically protest votes
– can this be regulated?
Electoral College
• Election Failures
• What is the point of popular vote for a
national office
– aggregate national opinion, produce
outcome
Electoral College
• Election Failure
– EC not good at producing a winner with
majority popular support
• Manufactured majorities
– EC good at translating narrow popular vote
wins into clear EC majorities
– Reagan 1980; Clinton’s 43 % in 1992
Electoral College
• Attempts at Reform
– Constitutional Amendments
• after 1948, award electors proportionate to
popular vote in state
– 64 Y in Senate, died in House
• after 1968, Direct Election of President
– 338 votes in House, 51 in Senate
Electoral College
• Reform Proposals
• Colorado 2004
– PR allocation inside state
– why is this a dumb idea?
• California 2007
– winner-take-all by congressional district
– just as dumb?
2000
Gore
Bush
Nader
others
Pop
48.4 %
47.9
2.7
1.0
1996
Clinton 49.2
Dole
40.7
Perot
8.4
others
1.7
1992
Clinton 43.0
Bush
37.5
Perot
18.9
1980
Reagan 50.7
Carter 41.0
Anderson 6.6
others
1.9
EC vote
266 (49 % )
270 (51 %)
by CD
251
287
379 (70 %)
159 (30 %)
345
193
262
220
49
7
370 (69%)
168 (31 % )
324
214
232
203
102
489 (91 %)
49 (9 %)
396
142
273
221
35
9
BOLD = MAJORITY
by PR
257
258
20
3
1976
Carter
Ford
others
50.1
48.0
1.8
297 (55 % )
240 (45 % )
269
269
270
258
10
1968
Nixon
Humphr
Wallace
others
43.2
42.7
13.5
0.6
301 (56 %)
191 (35 %)
46 (8 %)
289
192
57
231
225
79
2
303 (56 %)
219 (41%)
15 (3% )
278
245
14
266
266
5
1960
Kennedy 49.8
Nixon 49.5
unaffil. 0.7
BOLD = MAJORITY
Electoral College
• Current Reform Proposals
• Motivated by difficulty of amending US
Constitution
– direct election obvious reform, but hardest
to achieve
• State by state compact only other option
Electoral College
• National Popular Vote Compact
– States by state agreement to award state EC
votes to national pop. vote winner
– In effect when approved by states w/ majority of
electors
– Now law in states = to 132 electoral votes
– 49% of 270
Electoral College
• How would direct election change
campaigns?
– Large states
– Small states
– Urban areas
– Rural areas
Electoral College
• How would direct election change
campaigns?
Less emphasis on handfull of “battleground”
states
– 2008 McCain + Obama visited few small
states (NM, NV, NH)
• none of the 14 other smallest
Electoral College
Electoral College
• How would direct election change
campaigns?
Less emphasis on handfull of “battleground”
states
– Obama + McCain ignored 4 of 5 largest
states (CA, NY, TX, IL)
Electoral College
• Direct election diffuse campaign
– goal = plurality of votes
• What strategies
– TV time cheap in small & rural states
– Mobilize urban areas
• Who advantaged?
Electoral College
• How would NPV change role of third
parties?
• What incentives to run?
• What effects on contests?
– G. Wallace 1968; Nader 2000
Electoral College
• Popular vote:
– Plurality winner vs. majority winner
– Popular vote does not produce majority
winner
– NPV + IRV ?
Electoral College
• Who advantaged by status quo?
– Small states
• Republicans (slightly)
– Battle ground states
• Hogs, corn & wheat
– Already well protected in US Senate
Electoral College
• Who disadvantaged
– Larger states
• Non competitive states
– Citrus, vegetables
Electoral College
• Protects interests of “states”
– Protected in Senate
• What are states?
– what common interest of AK, HI, ND, VT,
etc....
Electoral College
• Legitimacy crisis?
• What if Gore wasn’t a gracious non-winner in
2000?
• What if GW Bush “lost” FL under suspicious
circumstances, but won nationally by 500,000
votes?
– how much legitimacy would GOP have granted
President Gore?
Electoral College
• Or:
– Obama wins 2008 with results nearly
identical to Kerry vote in 2004 (but
narrowly wins OH)
• Narrow EC victory, lose NPV by 2%, 2,000,000
votes
– Given hostility in face of near landslide in
‘08, how would GOP have responded?
Electoral College
• Defense
– It works
• Popular vote would still have plurality outcome
• 1876, 1888 popular vote winner was wrong, EC
was correct
– Produces good presidents
Electoral College
• Defense
– Prevents crisis when national vote w/
“margin of litigation”
• keeps recounts to few states
• What if NPV result a 200,000 margin (.001% of
130,000,000 votes cast)
• Litigation in all 50 states for recounts
Electoral College
• Defense
– Prevent a coup
– Death or incapacity of winner right before
or right after election