UNDERSTANDING SOUTH
ASIAN LABOR MIGRATION
Prepared for the United States Government Office of
South Asia Analysis
Meghan Doherty, Brian Leung, Katie Lorenze, Amanda Wilmarth
RESEARCH QUESTION
ROADMAP FOR PRESENTATION
• Introduction
• Data Limitations
• Study Area Profile
• Regional Analysis
• Push & Pull
• Economic Impacts of Mass Migration
• Macroeconomic
• Microeconomic
• Stability Concerns, Policy Implications, and
Recommendations
•
•
•
•
Volatility of Labor Demand in GCC Countries
International Security
Vulnerability and Human Right Violations
Data Gathering
• Conclusions
INTRODUCTION
• Economic
migration is
not a new
phenomenon
• South Asia
regional and
GCC
migration
• Policy
Informing
DATA LIMITATIONS
• Formal vs. Informal, Official vs. Unofficial
• Stock vs. flows
• Return migration
• Remittance Data
FORMAL VS. INFORMAL
OFFICIAL VS. UNOFFICIAL
Formal vs. Informal
• Formal Migrants
• Work permit via official
channels
• Formal employment contract,
official visa to enter receiving
country
• Restrictions
• Informal Migrants
• No work permit, contract,
visa
• Overstay of official visa
• Quantities difficult to
estimate
Official vs. Unofficial
• Official Channel
Remittances
• Generally bank or other
commercial transfers
• Included in IMF BoP
calculations
• Unofficial Channels
• Through middlemen or
carried across borders
• Not included in IMF BoP
MIGRANT STOCKS AND FLOWS
Migrant Stocks
Migrant Flows
• Foreign born population
• Receiving country census
data, every 10 years
• Formal and informal
migrants
• UN Bilateral data
• Formal migrant laborers
• Annual departures
• Sending Country official
data
• Formal migrants only
RETURN MIGRATION ESTIMATES
• No official return data
• Return estimates based on flow and stock data
• 2000 stock + 2001 through 2010 flows – 2010 stock
Average Annual
Migrant Flows 20012010
Average Annual
Return Migration
2001-2010
Estimated Return Rate
From GCC Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
345,000
519,000
700,000
215,000
168,000
200,000
690,000
204,000
49%
39%
98%
88%
REMITTANCE DATA
• Money sent home
• Official channels only
• Does NOT include unofficial channels:
• Hawala/Hundi—middleman transactions
• Cash or assets carried in person
• Central Bank dependent
• May not include:
• Some or all MTOs
• ATM withdraws
• World Bank bilateral remittance data
STUDY AREA PROFILE
MIGRANT STOCKS IN GCC COUNTRIES
Study Area Migrant Stocks Within the GCC Countries
12000000
9587474
10000000
Migrant Population
10332353
8000000
6000000
4513766
4000000
3489794
2000000
0
1990
GCC
BHR
2000
KWT
2010
OMN
QTR
2013
SAU
UAE
MIGRANT STOCKS IN STUDY AREA
Study Area Migrant Stocks Within the Study Area
7000000
Migrant Population
6000000
6047199
5705742
5151998
5142145
2010
2013
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
1990
2000
Total in Study Area
In BNG
In IND
In NPL
In LKA
FORMAL LABOR MIGRATION FLOWS TO
GCC COUNTRIES
Study Area Annual Formal Migrant Flows to the GCC
2500000
Annual Migrant Flow
2064954
2223206
2000000
1425479
1500000
1000000
1552641
1591721
2009
2010
1172563
1035535
1069287
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
SAU
UAE
KWT
OMN
QTR
BHR
500000
0
Total
OTHERS
GCC
FORMAL LABOR MIGRATION FLOWS TO
GCC COUNTRIES
2000000
Study Area Annual Formal Migrant Flows to the GCC vs.
Other Countries
Annual Migrant Flow
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
OTHERS
2007
2008
GCC
2009
2010
COMMON THEMES
Male and Female Migrant Flows
Percent of Migrant Flow
100%
80%
52
60%
95
93
40%
48
20%
0%
5
7
Bangladesh
Nepal
Female
Sri Lanka
Male
COMMON THEMES
Percent of Foreign Employment
Migrant Employment by Skill Level
100%
80%
66%
60%
70%
71%
98%
40%
20%
31%
0%
3%
Bangladesh
Professional
24%
30%
India
Skilled
2%
5%
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Unskilled and Semi Skilled
COMMON THEMES
Government Management of Migration
MOIA – Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs
BMET – Bureau of Manpower, Employment and
Training (Bangladesh)
SLBFE – Sri Lanka Bureau of Foreign Employment
DoFE – Department of Foreign Employment (Nepal)
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Population (2012)
154.7 M
1,236.7 M
27.5 M
20.3 M
Per Capita GDP
(Constant 2005 US$, 2012)
$752
$1,503
$690
$2,923
Total Formal Remittances
(Millions of Current US$, 2012)
$14,085
$68,821
$4,793
$6,000
Formal Remittances Percent
GDP (2012)
12.1%
3.7%
25.3%
10.1%
Unskilled Migrants (%)
51.9% (all)
70.0% (GCC)
75% (all)
64.4%
Female Flows
9.1% (2013)
Unknown
1.1% (2010)
48.3% (2011)
Flows
Oman (2013)
Saudi Arabia (2013)
Malaysia (2011)
Saudi Arabia (2011)
Stocks (2013)
India
UAE
India
India
Top Remittance Source (2012)
India
UAE
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Top Receiving Country:
CLASSIC ECONOMIC MIGRATION
• Pull
• Employment
opportunities
• Higher wages
Domestic Minimum Wages
900
845
800
800
700
US$ per Month
• Push
• Poverty
• Unemployment
• Surplus of labor
in home countries
600
500
405
400
300
210
200
100
-
101
23
112
48
50
164
CLASSIC ECONOMIC MIGRATION
• Pull
• Employment
opportunities
• Higher wages
Domestic Minimum and Estimated Migrant Wages
900
800
700
US$ per Month
• Push
• Poverty
• Unemployment
• Surplus of labor
in home countries
600
500
400
200
200
100
101
23
266
265
260
300
170
165
112
48
50
-
Domestic Minimum Wage
Average Wage for Migrant
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM GCC
COUNTRIES TO STUDY AREA
Millions of Current US$
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
UAE
SAU
KWT
QTR
Source Countries
OMN
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Study Area
BHR
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM GCC
COUNTRIES TO STUDY AREA
Millions of Current US$
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
1,547
466
1,024
525
0
UAE
SAU
KWT
QTR
Source Countries
OMN
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Study Area
BHR
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM GCC
COUNTRIES TO STUDY AREA
Millions of Current US$
18000
16000
15,685
14000
12000
10000
8,382
8000
6000
4000
2,947
2,294
2000
2,614
760
0
UAE
SAU
KWT
QTR
Source Countries
OMN
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Study Area
BHR
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM GCC
COUNTRIES TO STUDY AREA
Millions of Current US$
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
1,987
2000
105
0
UAE
SAU
KWT
QTR
Source Countries
OMN
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Study Area
BHR
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM GCC
COUNTRIES TO STUDY AREA
Millions of Current US$
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
613
1,257
823
407
0
UAE
SAU
KWT
QTR
Source Countries
132
OMN
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Study Area
BHR
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM GCC
COUNTRIES TO STUDY AREA
Millions of Current US$
18000
16,764
16000
14000
11,290
12000
10000
8000
6000
4,795
4,688
3,271
4000
2000
760
0
UAE
SAU
KWT
QTR
Source Countries
OMN
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Study Area
BHR
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM GCC
COUNTRIES TO STUDY AREA
Millions of Current US$
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
UAE
SAU
KWT
QTR
Source Countries
OMN
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
Nepal
Sri Lanka
BHR
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM WITHIN
STUDY AREA
10000
9000
Millions of Current US$
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
IND
Bangladesh
BNG
NPL
Source Countries
India
Receiving Countries
Nepal
Sri Lanka
LKA
Study Area
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM WITHIN
STUDY AREA
10000
9000
Millions of Current US$
8000
7000
6,620
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
1
0
IND
BNG
NPL
Source Countries
LKA
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Study Area
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM WITHIN
STUDY AREA
10000
9000
Millions of Current US$
8000
7000
6000
5000
4,082
4000
3,224
3000
2000
1,410
1000
0
IND
BNG
NPL
Source Countries
LKA
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Study Area
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM WITHIN
STUDY AREA
10000
9000
Millions of Current US$
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1,634
1000
0
IND
BNG
NPL
Source Countries
LKA
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Study Area
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM WITHIN
STUDY AREA
10000
9000
Millions of Current US$
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
400
2
0
IND
BNG
NPL
Source Countries
LKA
Receiving Countries
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Study Area
OFFICIAL REMITTANCES FROM WITHIN
STUDY AREA
10000
8,655
9000
Millions of Current US$
8000
7000
6000
5000
4,082
4000
3,227
3000
2000
1,410
1000
0
IND
Bangladesh
BNG
NPL
Source Countries
India
Receiving Countries
Nepal
Sri Lanka
LKA
Study Area
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MASS
MIGRATION: MACRO
30%
Total Formal Channel Remittances as a Percent of GDP
25.3%
25%
Percent of GDP
20%
15%
12.1%
10%
10.1%
3.7%
5%
0%
BNG
IND
NPL
LKA
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MASS
MIGRATION: MACRO
30%
Total Formal Channel Remittances as a Percent of GDP
25%
Percent of GDP
20%
15%
12.1%
10%
5%
0%
BNG
IND
NPL
LKA
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MASS
MIGRATION: MACRO
30%
Total Formal Channel Remittances as a Percent of GDP
25%
Percent of GDP
20%
15%
10.1%
10%
5%
0%
BNG
IND
NPL
LKA
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MASS
MIGRATION: MACRO
30%
Total Formal Channel Remittances as a Percent of GDP
25%
Percent of GDP
20%
15%
10%
3.7%
5%
0%
BNG
IND
NPL
LKA
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MASS
MIGRATION: MACRO
30%
Total Formal Channel Remittances as a Percent of GDP
25.3%
25%
Percent of GDP
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
BNG
IND
NPL
LKA
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MASS
MIGRATION: MACRO
• In Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh, remittances have fueled
GDP growth, financed trade deficits, and increased
investment rates.
• 2012 study of remittances in South Asia found that each 1
percent increase in migrant remittances is associated with a
.02 percent increase in the economic growth rate.
• India’s economy has been impacted less by remittances,
except for the state of Kerala.
• Not all macroeconomic impacts are positive.
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MASS
MIGRATION: MICRO
• Reduced levels of
poverty
• Raised standards of
living
• Consumption and
investment in human
capital
Source: GeoCurrents
STABILITY CONCERNS: VOLATILITY OF
LABOR DEMAND IN GCC COUNTRIES
Source: The Guardian
AID, FDI, AND REMITTANCE INFLOWS
AS A PERCENT OF GDP
30%
Percent of GDP
25%
20%
15%
10%
4.7%
5%
1.3%
0%
BGD
1.0%
0.2%
IND
NPL
Aid (2011)
LKA
AID, FDI, AND REMITTANCE INFLOWS
AS A PERCENT OF GDP
30%
Percent of GDP
25%
20%
15%
10%
4.7%
5%
1.3% 1.0%
0%
0.2%
BGD
1.3%
IND
Aid (2011)
0.5%
NPL
FDI Inflows (2012)
1.0% 1.5%
LKA
AID, FDI, AND REMITTANCE INFLOWS
AS A PERCENT OF GDP
30%
25.3%
Percent of GDP
25%
20%
15%
12.1%
10.1%
10%
3.7%
5%
1.3% 1.0%
0%
BGD
Aid (2011)
0.2%
1.3%
IND
FDI Inflows (2012)
4.7%
0.5%
1.0% 1.5%
NPL
LKA
Remittances (2012)
RECOMMENDATIONS: REMITTANCES
• Build domestic economy
• Encourage use of remittances for investment
• Monitor situation of labor demand in GCC
STABILITY CONCERNS:
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
• Indo-Nepal Border
Source: Nepal Mountain News
• Indo-Bangladeshi
Border
Source: Amnesty International
STABILITY CONCERNS: VULNERABILITY
AND HUMAN RIGHT VIOLATIONS
source: Reuters
RECOMMENDATIONS: STABILITY
• Potential restrictions of migration flows
• Trade off between international security and
livelihood of poor
• Tightening of remittance channels and borders
• Abuses and effect on bilateral relations
• Monitor situation at borders
• Monitor 2022 FIFA World Cup preparations
RECOMMENDATIONS: DATA
• Average remittances per migrant (official channels) by country pairs
• Based on stock data
GCC
Countries
Bahrain
Study Area
Bangladesh
$ 4,062
$1,169
$2,770
-
India
Nepal
$4,768
Sri Lanka
$69,601
$2,891
-
$9,911
-
Kuwait
$4,614
$3,668
$4,034
-
$30,201
Oman
$4,053
$3,540
$4,055
-
$9,368
Qatar
$5,715
Saudi Arabia
$3,489
UAE
-
$3,977
$1,255,212
$18,916
$1,182
$4,757
$5,860
$8,549
$4,133
$428
$5,499
Study Area
$3,379
$2,049
$7,556
Bangladesh
$51,066
India
$2,196
$2,050
Nepal
Other
Countries
All Countries
$3,976
$1,295
$3,979
$3,974
$2,829
$4,434
$2,522
$3,113
$3,868
$1,816
$4,858
$4,588
$4,790
-
$120,787
-
$2,763
$2,955
-
$5,762
$2,414
$2,530
$3,236
RECOMMENDATIONS: DATA
• Wider migrant surveys
• Receiving country entry points
• Sending country return entry points
• Bank/MTO new customers
• Partner with MTOs
• Survey new customers
• Review remittance records
• Review and clarify study area central bank policies
CONCLUSION
• Classic economic migration
• Significant reliance on remittances
• Monitor potential stability concerns
• Acknowledge and address data limitations
THANK YOU
Meghan Doherty
doherty3@wisc.edu
Brian Leung
bwleung@wisc.edu
Katie Lorenze
lorenze@wisc.edu
Amanda Wilmarth
amwilmarth@wisc.edu