Technology in Service of Society Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University November 25, 2005 Technology Trends A Giga-PC in 2000 Billion operations per second, Billion bits of memory Billion bits per second Network bandwidth Less than $2 k A Tera-PC by the year 2015 A Peta-PC by the year 2030 Exponential Growth Trends in Computer Performance 1638400 819200 Tera PC Doubling every 15 months 409600 204800 100G PC 102400 51200 M25600 I P12800 S 6400 Doubling every 2 years 10G PC 3200 1600 Giga PC 800 400 200 100 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year What do we do with all this power? Social systems not affected: Food we eat Clothes we wear Mating rituals The computing will transform the way, we Live Learn Work, and Communicate Using Technology In Service of Humanity Helping Aging population Disaster Rescue Accident-Avoiding Cruise Control Access to Information and Digital Libraries Access to Education Literacy Urban/Rural Divide Access to Healthcare Lifeline Emergency Healthcare Helping Aging Population US population is aging at an alarming rate. Cost of eldercare has grown dramatically over the last decade 10% of the population will be over the age of 70 By 2030, it is estimated to be 20% Home nursing costs between $30k and $60k annually Explore the use of robots for elder care? 70+ age group is likely to have minor disabilities impacting their quality of life. The three broad categories are Sensory disabilities Cognitive disabilities, and Motor disabilities Role of Technology in Elder Care Reminding visit the bathroom, take medicine, drink, or see the doctor Use tele-presence technology Professional caregivers can interact directly with remote patients Reducing the frequency of doctor visits. Connecting with caregivers Monitoring the well-being of patients Emergency conditions can be avoided Help Move Objects for Arthritic Patients Manipulating objects around the home such as e.g. heart failure or high blood sugar levels Refrigerator Washing machine, or Microwave. Help with Social Functions Many elderly live alone Deprived of social contacts Encouraging Social Activity Encouraging Social Activity Robotics and Disaster Rescue Disaster sites are often unreachable and too dangerous for human exploration In most cases, rescue workers need to retrieve victims within about 48 hours Pre-Disaster technology alone doesn’t help e.g. In Kobe earthquake (1995, Japan) many structures collapsed though they were believed to be earthquake resistant Rescue Robot Ecology: Environment, Platforms, & Role of People Robots of International Rescue System Institute •Information Collection from Above •Robotic Helicopter •Infoballoon •Information Collection on the Rubble •Information Collection in the Rubble •Snake Robot •Wide-Area Information Collection •Drop-in Cell-phone Tower •Database for Rescue Management Autonomous Cars as Eco-Technology Unsafe driving conditions 1 million casualties worldwide every year from road accidents Excessive braking causes stop-and-go traffic Majority of jams can be avoided if 20% of cars use auto-pilots Passengers disconcerted by irregular driving Driver fatigue, drunken driving, speeding 42% of vehicle crashes due to poor visibility conditions Traffic jams caused by driver panic or miscalculation Annual repair bill of $55 Billion for cars in the US Majority of road accidents caused by human errors and reduced visibility Over 40,000 in the US alone Sudden speeds and stops highly disturbing to passengers Also leads to high fuel consumption and wearing of vehicle Underutilization of roads due to huge gaps between vehicles Accident Avoiding Cruise Control Collision warning systems Frontal and sideways collision warnings for buses/trains Adaptive cruise control systems Maintain speed, navigate turns, follow vehicles, autopark, switch lanes Autonomous driving systems Autonomous racing vehicles – Sandstorm, Highlander, Stanley Highway driving for extended time periods – Navlab 11 Lane keeping and headway maintenance Obstacle avoidance by swerving and stopping Path planning systems based on GPS and navigation maps Close vehicle following on automated highways – platooning VIDEO This video shows the 5th generation of autonomous vehicle Click here to see the Autonomous Vehicle video (49.0 MB) Access to Information and Knowledge: Technology to the Rescue Unequal Access to Libraries at the Bottom of the Pyramid Annual estimated global spending - $42 Billion Annual estimated US spending - $12 Billion Annual estimated spending of Developing Countries – Less than $1 Billion! Creating universal digital library containing all the books ever published is feasible today Most of it goes to Salaries not Collections Non-destructive scanning of books possible since 2000 Language Divide Problem Unfortunately most of these books are in English Not readable by over 80% of the population Most People cannot read books in other languages Current translation systems are not yet perfect The Million Book Digital Library Collaborative venture among many countries including USA, China and India So far 400,000 books have been scanned in China and 200,000 in India Content is made freely available around the globe Cover Page of Sanskrit book RigVeda. Urdu book by Khader Badesh (1919) Status: The Million Book Digital Library Collaborative venture among many countries including USA, China and India So far over books have been scanned in China and 200,000 in India Content is made freely available around the globe Problems of Educating the Youth at Bottom of the Pyramid In India, 70% of the 20 million children are born in low income rural communities Of these only 50% pass the national exam at 10th grade The urban top students, usually get 90% plus marks The top rural students get 10 to 20% points less depending on the backwardness of the area As a result, less than 1% of the candidates selected into the elite national programs like IIT or IAS come from low income rural communities Unless all the urban students are brilliant and rural students second rate, the country is leaving wasting 70% of the national resource of equally gifted youth Rather than select students based a national rank, we propose that use the local-best rank to identify the gifted students independent of how their marks compare with marks of the students in other local communities. Step I: The Literacy Problem Illiteracy cost around $225 b per year Over a billion people cannot read or write Over 2 billion people in the world are functionally illiterate lack of comprehension of the sentence and the meaning of the words Children and people who live in villages need extra help to become good readers Project Listen Reading Tutor • Project Listen’s Reading Tutor is designed to help children improve their reading skills • • At their own pace, in their own way. Installed in several schools Used by hundreds of children every day Handles students all the way from pre-school level to grade 5 or beyond. Developed by Prof. Jack Mostow, Carnegie Mellon University Using the Reading Tutor a student is twice as effective than the conventional techniques The Reading Tutor is affordable and the software is free Uses Sphinx-II speech recognition engine Computer recognizes what you speak and corrects you Uses Windows XP on an ordinary PC with 256MB of memory Reading tutor being used in a class room. Reading Tutor pilot in Ghana. Step II: Educating Youth from Low Income Rural Communities Rural youth cannot successfully compete in National Exams Most Solutions not Scalable to Large Number of Students Quality Teachers not available Existing Universities unable to introduce new learning models No Access To Computer Literacy Can’t commute and can’t afford Rural Parents do not know options available for their kids Early Specialization into Math, Physics and Chemistry leads to narrow uni-dimensional students One Class Fits All? Urban rich kids are specially trained in coaching centers Most rural kids can’t afford and/or Quick Learners and Slow learners No Incentives for Broad-based Education Limitations of Using Marks as a Metric of Giftedness SAT, JEE, IAS all use marks as a measure for selecting the most deserving candidates Marks are primarily a function of “Time on Task” If all the candidates had the same training at school and at home then Marks can be seen as a Fair and Equitable method of selection Marks are a function of Time on Task Quality of the Teachers Education level of the Parents Ability to Pay for Coaching Classes Local Best Model Select Students based on Performance based on Local (County) Ranking Rather than National Ranking as in SAT Tests Rich vs. Poor Divide Urban Vs Rural Divide Time on Task Teaching to Test Tutorial College Syndrome Learning Vs. Memorizing (Rote Learning) In the case of unequal training, marks are not a good measure of talent and ability Residential Variable Performance within Local Ranking Mandal (County) Best? Average Marks by School in Chillakur Mandal of Nellore Dt. LITTLE ANGEL'S (EM) H S, CHILLAKUR APSWRS BOYS CHILLAKUR 461 Z P P HIGH SCHOOL THIKKAVARAM 376 Z P HIGH SCHOOL, N. RETTAPALLI 362 Z P P HIGH SCHOOL CHILLAKUR Z P P HIGH SCHOOL CHINTAVARAM 360 Z P P HIGH SCHOOL VALLIPEDU Z P P HIGH SCHOOL VARAGALI ZP HIGH SCHOOL KADIVEDU 263 511 360 356 352 New Rural University in India Catering primarily to Rural Students Named Rajiv Gandhi University of Knowledge Technologies Residential – Top 1% of the graduating class admitted each year Students selected using the local best model Admission is by invitation and not by Application leading to a dual degree in IT and a domain specialization. The program uses the learning-by-doing paradigm No Entrance Examination. The program consists of a six year integrated curriculum after 10th grade 6500 students admitted in 2008 August using personalized mentors and intelligent tutoring systems. Each student is provided a Laptop from the beginning. Motto: "Learning to learn, Learning to think and Learning to live". Access to Healthcare Under 5 Mortality Rate Underlying causes of many of these deaths Poor pre-pregnancy health, Inadequate care during pregnancy and delivery, etc… Currently, village health workers make home visits to provide Neonatal care One out of every 5 children dies before reaching the age of 5 As hospitals are not accessible and costly Scalability and sustainability of current solutions has been a problem Accessibility to a health worker, identifying and training health workers and providing timely support and medicine Each year over 100 million infants worldwide need immunizing against six different diseases. Education and immunization campaigns have reduced child and maternal mortality rates in china Emergency Scenario in India until 2004 300,000 emergencies occur per day (108 M p.a.) 80% are at the bottom of the pyramid 80% deaths occur in hospitals in the first hour 4 M deaths p.a. Absence of 4 As Access Availability Affectionate Care Affordability Satyam Foundation Establishes a Not-For-Profit Organization (NPO) called EMRI to attack this problem in 2005 Initial funding of $50 Million Emergency Management Research Institute (NPO) and Public Private Partnership (PPP) EMRI architecture and performance leads to P the following PPP (Public Private Partnership) framework Partnership delivers targeted Outcomes 95% of operational expenses by Government (Public) EMRI to contribute balance 10% of expenses and all costs of Leadership, Innovation, Research & Training, Technology Management by EMRI to sustain long term performance at International quality and speed Govt. of A.P. Govt. of Gujarat Govt. of MP Govt. of Uttarakhand Govt. of Tamilnadu Govt. of Rajasthan Govt. of Goa with People, Process and Performance capabilities P + P Poor Pregnant Pediatrics Govt. of Assam Passion Patience Professionalism Govt. of Karnataka Emergency Response Center • 24X7 Unique Emergency Response Center staffed with trained Communication, Medical and Police personnel Technology Computer Telephony Integration Call Centers: Voice Loggers GIS / Maps GPS / AVLT Mobile Communication Application software for Sense, Reach and Care ePCR (Electronic Patient Case Record) Form prevention Sense Reach Care Technology enhanced competitive advantage of EMRI One Emergency Response Center per State against 6,500 in the USA Employs latest technology (9-1-1 is a 30+ year-old ) Call handling , dispatching and ambulance control are under one roof Availability of doctors and police in the response center Virtual handholding by doctor/paramedic commences since call is received Ambulance • Ambulance design based on best of class - Indianized Today at EMRI • 9,000 + EMRI Associates Jammu & Kashmir • 6,800 + Private Hospitals / Nursing homes Himachal Pradesh • 2,000 Police / Fire Stations Punjab • 280 M population covered in 6 States • 6,500 emergencies handled ( 2.4 Million annualized) • 1,140 Ambulances - 6+ trips a day Haryan a Delhi Sikkim Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Assam Jharkhand Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Manipur West Bengal Mizoram Tripura Orissa Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Goa Karnataka • 100% virtual handholding (in ambulance) by EMTs and physicians • 130+ lives were saved daily(45,000+ till now) and Kerala 6,370 victims received timely, high-quality pre-hospital care Tamil Nadu Nagaland Meghalaya Bihar • < 3 minutes Ambulances assigned • < 14 minutes (urban) and < 21 minutes (rural) Ambulances reached Arunachal Pradesh Uttarakhand Medical Emergencies Medical Emergency % of Total Rural Female % % 82 100 57 18 77 35 Age Yrs Pregnancy related Injuries Acute Abdomen 22 18 8 22 31 32 Suicide related Cardiac related 6 5 72 66 43 38 27 42 Respiratory related 4 66 36 46 Follow-up after 48 hours Discharged 49 % Stable and still in Hospital 45 % Critical and still in Hospital 1% Expired 5% Extraordinary Performance from Ordinary People 3 Hour Neonate (Baby Girl) Buried Cyclist– Fell on road divider rod Robbery – Thief requested wife to dial 108 after 10 minutes to take the injured husband to hospital Firing - Between Army Commanders and Naxalites Extraordinary Performance from Ordinary People 35 Ambulances to Bihar Candle Light Delivery Suicide Attempt Snake Bite Bomb Blasts Ahmedabad Caring, Valuing and Respecting Life Humaneness Humility & Commitment to serve Leading to Reduction in Poverty, Increase in Quality of Health and Life What is Stopping Us?: Digital Divide Issues Connectivity Divide Access to free Internet for basic services? Computer Access Divide Accessibility: Less than 5 minute walk? Affordability: Costing less than a cup of coffee per day? Digital Literacy Divide Language Divide Literacy Divide Content Divide Access to information and knowledge Access to education and learning Access to health care Access to jobs Access to entertainment Necessary Conditions for Inclusive Technology Almost Free Access to Internet Basic services free Value added services at affordable rates To an illiterate person in a village, the need for a PC is not obvious A TV and/or a telephone represent a better value proposition: a PCtvt, 5 in 1 multi-function information appliance? Accessible access to movies Clear Value Proposition up to 10 email and web exchanges per day No more than a 5 minute walk from home? Affordable No more than the price of a cup of coffee Initiatives for Scalable and Sustainable Development Connectivity: Fiber to the Village Computer Access: Multi-Function Information Appliance PCtvt – PC, TV, PVR, Video Phone and IP phone Capacity Building: eLearning for the Masses AP Broadband Project Software for use by illiterate people in rural communities Content Million Book Digital Library eLearning modules for rural enterprises Village Google