Dr. Johnny Snyder

Outline - Metrics
 Historical Overview of Metrics
 Time as a Metric
 The FS Metric
 An Example
 Other Metrics in Computer Information
Systems
 Conclusion

A Motto -

“What is not measurable make measurable.”
Galileo Galilei
(1564 – 1642)

The 1950’s
 What metrics?

The 1960’s
 Leonard Kleinrock writes first paper on packet switching.
 First packets sent on ARPANet – 1969.
 Note: The system crashed as the g in login was reached!
(Howe, 2004; Zakon, 2004)

The 1970’s
 ARPANet protocol established.
 Ethernet appeared.
 ARPANet users number 2,000.
(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)

The 1980’s
 First virus appears.
 BITNET appears (e-mail).
 Number of hosts breaks 1,000; 10,000; then 100,000.
 Archie appears (ftp archiver – Internet index!).
(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)

The 1990’s
 WWW appears.
 gopher appears (indexing the web).
 Number of hosts surpasses 1,000,000.
 Shopping appears on the Internet!
(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)

The 21 st Century
 Remember Y2K?
 More than 1,000,000,000 indexed pages.

Flash mobs, Internet taxes, spam, speed…
 US Census Bureau has 1.5 million page views per day. (Census Bureau, 2004)

Time…
Technology
Television
Radio
Telephone
Personal Computers
Cell Phones
World Wide Web
Time to reach 25% penetration (years)
25
27
35
16
13
7
(Baase, 2003)

Time (1)
 Recall that: da dt

1 for humans.

Time - human
 I.e. in one year, we will all be one year older!

Time (2)
 Also, recall that da dt

7 for cats.

Time - Cats

…so in one year our cats will be seven years older!
 note: 18 h.y. = 126 c.y.

Time (3)
 But, da dt

25 for computers.

Time - computers
 Next year my computer will be 100 years old!

Time (4)
 For the Internet, da dt
 f ( t ) because it is moving fast…

Which metric measures the
Internet?
 Speed: powers of 10 (by threes)
 Host growth: exponential
 Number of pages: exponential
 Number of possible paths: factorial

Lord Kelvin (1824 – 1907):
“When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it…”

The FS Metric
 As the 21 st century evolves, new metrics will have to be developed, explored and tested for validity.
 Many web sites and software tools appeal to the individualistic side of our personalities (as well as cultural and societal norms).

Feng Shui
 A study of how energies in our environment affect the way we live and work in this area (the web) at this time.

Fang Shooy
 A study of how energies in our environment, when left unchecked , can disrupt how we live and work in this environment (the web) at this time.

Fang Shooy

Feng Shui

Fang Shooy

Feng Shui

What does this prove?

Well…
 Nothing.

What does this illustrate?
 That individual perceptions are hard to quantify and thus measure.

How do we prove conjectures?
 With theorems
 How do we prove theorems?
 With more theorems!
 Postulates
 Axioms

Remember Euclid? (~300 BC)
 Formulated axiomatic system for geometry.
 Stood for more than 2,000 years as the model for organized thinking.

Axioms are “self-evident truths.”
(Burton, 2003)

What are Internet axioms?
 Words in all uppercase letters are offensive.
 Back buttons are necessary.
 Pop-ups are annoying.
 Speed is good.
 Clutter is bad.

Definitions

How do you “define” a metric for something like a search engine for cyberspace?

Definitions (2)
 Question: What is the fundamental purpose of a search engine?
 Answer: To search the web.

Definitions (3)
 First we need a scale.
 How about 1 to 10?
 How about 0 to 100?
 How about -3 to 3 with zero being neutral?

Definitions (4)
 Lets select 0 to 100 with 0 being bad and
100 being good. Further, lets assume that we begin at 100 and subtract points as
“errors” are encountered. (axioms violated)

Definitions (5)








Pluses
Order *
Calm *
Open *
Passive Colors *
Home Page
No Pop-Ups
Fast Loading
No Horizontal Scrolling








Minuses
Chaos *
Busy *
Cluttered *
Active Colors *
Splash Page
Pop-Ups
Slow Loading
Horizontal Scrolling
* = Subject to individual interpretation

Example: Search Engines
 Evaluate the major search engines using the following point structure:
 pop-ups
 horizontal scrolling
 scrolling text
 poor colors
 flashing animations
 information overload
 vertical scrolling
- 10
- 8
- 5
- 5
- 5
- 5
- 3

Search Engine Rating Scale
0 50 100
Netscape
Excite
Yahoo
Alta Vista
Dogpile
Google
Hogsearch
Lycos

Feng Shui

Fang Shooy

Qualitative to Quantitative
Qualitative
Measure
Quantitative
Measure

Metrics in Systems Analysis and
Design
 Gantt Charts and PERT Charts
 Diagramming
 Usability Testing
Data/Axioms
The
System!
Level 0 DFD
Results/Theorems

Metrics in E-Commerce
 Click Through Rate (ad click)
 Clickstream Data
 Hit Rate
 Knowledge Curve
 Shopping Cart Abandonment Rate
 Throughput

Metrics in Human Computer
Interaction
 Geert Hofstede and dimensions of culture

Fitt’s Law

Hick’s Law
T

A log
2
D
S

1
2
T
H

 log
2 k H
 n

1


Metrics in HCI (2)

Meyer’s Law
 Power Law of
Practice
T

A

B
D
W
T n

T
1 n
 a

New Metrics (needed)
 e-waste
 e-pollution
 e-warfare
 e-learning
 e-voting

 e-taxes e~2.71828…

Conclusions
 Metrics permeate, somehow, most fields of study.
 CIS is a field where old metrics can be analyzed and applied.
 CIS is a field where new metrics can be formulated, tested and applied.
 That makes CIS interesting and entertaining!

Conclusions (2)
 That is a bit about me and some of the ideas that I am interested in.
 Thanks again for coming!
 Questions?

References
 Baase, S. (2003). A Gift of Fire. Upper Saddle
River, NJ: Prentice Hall
 Burton, D. (2003). The History of Mathematics:
An Introduction. New York: McGraw-Hill
 Census Bureau, (2004). Retrieved December 1,
2004 from: http://www.census.gov/webdecade

References (2)
 Hofstede, G. (1997). Cultures and Organizations:
Software of the Mind. New York: McGraw-Hill
 Howe, W. (2004). A Brief History of the Internet.
Retrieved November 30, 2004 from: http://www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.html

Zakon, R. (2004). Hobbes’ Internet Timeline v7.0.
Retrieved November 30, 2004 from: http://www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timeline

Top Five Metric (Grand Junction)
Search Engine
5
4
3
2
1
Google Dogpile
Museum of W.
Colorado
Hotels
National Weather
Service
Quality Inn
Chamber of
Commerce
Real Estate
City of Grand Junction Hotels (HotelsByCity)
Visitor Bureau Hotels (Expedia)

Top Five Metric (Mesa State
College)
Search Engine Google Dogpile
5
4
3
2
1
Study USA
US University
Resource
Mesa State’s
Homepage no longer resides…
Mesa State Athletics www.10000scholarship
.com
college.us.com
Mesa State’s
Homepage no longer resides…
Mesa State Athletics
Mesa State Homepage Mesa State Homepage