Trends and driving forces in livestock
production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa
C. Sere and M. Herrero
The Role of Livestock for ACP countries: challenges and opportunities ahead
Brussels Development Briefings - 1st July, 2009 Brussels, Belgium
Livestock and livelihoods (1)
–
Livestock systems occupy 45% or the global land area (Reid
et al 2008)
–
Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least $1.4
trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock
industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008)
–
Livestock industries organised in long market chains that
employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999)
–
Livestock key as a risk reduction strategy for vulnerable
communities (Freeman et al 2007)
–
Important providers of nutrients and traction for growing crops
in smallholder systems (at least 60% of the global cropping
area receives manure applications – Herrero et al 2008a)
Livestock and livelihoods (3)
–
Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie
consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT
2008)
–
Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure
people (Gerber
–
Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but…
highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in
the developing World
–
.
SSA - 2000
Europe - 2000
3%
3%
10%
Meat
11%
37%
24%
Dairy
Meat
4%
Dairy
Fruit & Vegetables
Fruit & Vegetables
5%
Cereals
Roots & Tubers
Roots & Tubers
Dryland crops
1%
5%
31%
Others
Cereals
3%
16%
47%
Dryland crops
Others
Herrero et al 2008a
At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on
livestock
ILRI 2009
Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2030)
Population in 2000
(1000 of people)
Population in 2030
(1000 of people)
(Agro-)Pastoral
80,160
140,820
Mixed Extensive
258,680
484,750
Mixed Potentially Intensify
168,150
327,070
Other
109,180
190,310
Farming system
Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa will
nearly double to 2030!!
Herrero et al 2009
Consumption of livestock products in the
developing world is projected to increase even faster
70
60
cereals, food
change 2001 - 2030 (%)
50
cereals, all uses
40
veg. oils, oilseeds and
by-products
meat
30
milk
20
10
0
developing countries
industrial countries
-10
IAASTD 2007
Cereal yields
Increasing….except in
Sub-Saharan Africa
World Bank 2007
Cereals production in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000)
Cereals Production 2000
3% 5%
24%
AgroPastoral
Mixed Extensive
Mixed Intensive
Other
68%
Herrero et al 2009
Rates of cereal production diminishing in
places due to water and other constraints
Annual changes in Cereal Production
2000 - 2030
Rates lower than those of population
Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar
growth
to developed countries
Catching up
6
5
%
4
3
2
1
0
CSA
AgroPastoral
EA
SA
Mixed Extensive
SEA
Mixed Intensive
SSA
Other
WANA
Total
Developed countries
Herrero et al 2009
…but rates of production of animal products
are increasing at significantly faster rates….
Herrero et al 2009
Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030
8
Increased consumption
Increased incomes
5
4
3
2
1
0
CSA
AgroPastoral
EA
SA
Mixed Extensive
SEA
Mixed Intensive
SSA
Other
WANA
Total
Developed countries
Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030
…but increased pressure on
resources (land, feeds, etc)
Some industrialisation….
%
%
7
6
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
CSA
AgroPastoral
EA
SA
Mixed Extensive
SEA
SSA
Mixed Intensive
WANA
Other
Total
Developed countries
Herrero et al 2009
80% of agricultural production comes from rainfed
areas, significant regional variations exist – CA 2007
Dependence on green and blue water 2000
ILRI
Small Scale Dairy
Proposed value chain
Existing value chain
Plant breeders
Soil scientists
Water conservation/
supply
Seeds
Fertilizers
Feed/Minerals
Crop residues
Fodder production
Pasture
development
Fodder producers /
Traders
Small holder/
Dairy cattle
Breed selection
Superior germplasm
Performance evaluation
Lab services
Input supply
Monitoring /
Evaluation
Micro-finance
Hub/
Local org.
Breeding services
Vaccinations
Deworming
Disease Investigation
Veterinary services
Milk
collection
Paravet
Veterinarian
Milk processing/
marketing
Consumer
Training /
Capacity building
National/ Regional Players
Private Entrepreneurs
Wider Replication
Hedge 2009
Mean CC impacts on yields
Calorie-based national mean change in crop productivity [%]
2050s compared to 1990s
With CO2 fertilization
n=15;
3SRES,
5GCM
%
Without CO2 fertilization
%
n=15;
3SRES,
5GCM
PIK, Müller et al., preliminary results
Conclusions
• Mixed crop-livestock systems will continue to be
the backbone of agriculture and livestock
production in Sub Saharan Africa
• Domestic and regional markets – essential
• Improved market access, competitiveness,
reduction of transactions costs necessary
• Significant room for intensification, particularly in
areas of medium agricultural potential
• More livestock due to climate change?