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Economics
12.2B Economic stability
Unemployment
Безработица
Viktor Ni, NIS 2014
Leaning objective
• Calculate the unemployment rate distinguish
between employed and unemployed
Part 1
Who is consider
to be
unemployed?
• Безрабо́тица — наличие в стране людей,
составляющих часть экономически
активного населения, которые способны и
желают трудиться по найму, но не могут
найти работу.
Уровень безработицы в мире по
состоянию на январь 2009 года
(по данным ЦРУ)
Measurement of Unemployment
• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
conducts a nationwide random survey of
some 60,000 households each month to
determine who is employed and who is not
employed. In a series of questions, it asks
which members of the household are working,
unemployed and looking for work, not looking
for work, and so on.
The labor force, employment,
and unemployment, 2007.
1. People under 16 years of age
and people who are
institutionalized
Children +
Institutionalized:
• in mental hospitals
• correctional institutions
Not in labor force
Adults who are potential workers but
are not employed and are not seeking
work.
•homemakers,
•full-time students, or
•retirees.
The labor force
• about 50 percent of the total
population in 2007
• The labor force consists of people
who are able and willing to work.
• Both those who are employed and
those who are unemployed but
actively seeking work are counted
as being in the labor force
The unemployment rate
• is the percentage of the labor force
unemployed:
The unemployment rate
• Calculate the rate of
unemployment for 2007:
Unemployment rate (2007):
7,1/153,1*100%=4,6%
Part 2
Critics of BLS
The BLS lists all part-time workers as fully
employed.
• In 2007 about 20 million people worked parttime as a result of personal choice.
• But another 4.6 million part-time workers
either wanted to work full-time and could not
find suitable full-time work or worked fewer
hours because of a temporary slack in
consumer demand.
• Таким образом, уровень безработицы
уменьшен
Discouraged workers are not counted as labor
force.
• The problem is that many workers, after
unsuccessfully seeking employment for a
time, become discouraged and drop out of the
labor force. The number of such discouraged
workers was 396,000 in 2007.
• Таким образом, проблема безработицы
преуменьшается.
Part 3
Types of
Unemployment
1. Frictional Unemployment
• Economists use the term frictional unemployment—
consisting of search unemployment and wait
unemployment— for workers who are either searching
for jobs or waiting to take jobs in the near future. The
word “frictional” implies that the labor market does
not operate perfectly and instantaneously (without
friction) in matching workers and jobs.
• Frictional unemployment is inevitable and, at least in
part, desirable. Many workers who are voluntarily
between jobs are moving from low-paying, lowproductivity jobs to higher-paying, higher-productivity
positions. That means greater income for the workers,
a better allocation of labor resources, and a larger real
GDP for the economy.
2. Structural Unemployment
• Here, economists use “structural” in the sense of
“compositional.” Changes over time in consumer
demand and in technology alter the “structure” of the
total demand for labor, both occupationally and
geographically
• Occupationally, the demand for certain skills (for
example, sewing clothes or working on farms) may
decline or even vanish. The demand for other skills (for
example, designing software or maintaining computer
systems) will intensify
• Geographically, the demand for labor also changes
over time. An example: the migration of industry and
thus of employment opportunities from the Snow Belt
to the Sun Belt over the past few decades. Another
example is the movement of jobs from inner-city
factories to suburban industrial parks.
Distinction between frictional and
structural unemployment
• The key difference is that frictionally
unemployed workers have marketable skills
and either live in areas where jobs exist or are
able to move to areas where they do.
Structurally unemployed workers find it hard
to obtain new jobs without retraining, gaining
additional education, or relocating.
• Frictional unemployment is short-term;
structural unemployment is more likely to be
long-term and consequently more serious
3. Cyclical Unemployment
• Unemployment that is caused by a decline in
total spending is called cyclical unemployment
and typically begins in the recession phase of
the business cycle.
• The 25 percent unemployment rate in the depth
of the Great Depression in 1933 reflected
mainly cyclical unemployment, as did significant
parts of the 9.7 percent unemployment rate in
1982, the 7.5 percent rate in 1992, and the 5.8
percent rate in 2002.
Definition of Full Employment
• Economists describe the unemployment rate
that is consistent with full employment as the
full-employment rate of unemployment, or
the natural rate of unemployment (NRU).
• At the NRU, the economy is said to be
producing its potential output. This is the real
GDP that occurs when the economy is “fully
employed.”
Okun’s law
• Society loses real GDP when cyclical
unemployment occurs;
• For each 1 percentage point of unemployment
above the natural rate, the U.S. economy
suffers a 2 percent decline in real GDP below
its potential GDP.
Calculation for 1992
• The unemployment rate was 7.4 percent,
natural rate of unemployment 6.0 percent.
1992’s potential GDP of $7337 billion.
Calculate the loss in real output.
• GDP gap: (7,4-6)*2=2,8%
• Lost in Real GDP = 7337*2,8%=$205 billion
Should women work?
Which country has more
working women?
• China
• USA
• India
• Europe
http://www.bls.gov/fls/ch
artbook/2012/chart2.1.pdf
Which country experience
the highest rate of
unemployment in 2010?
• Finland
• Denmark
• Norway
• Austria
• Spain
• USA
Which it is easier to find
jobs?
http://www.bls.gov/fls
/chartbook/2012/chart
2.9.pdf
Is it necessary
to study?
Can I get job
without it?
http://www.bls.gov/fls/cha
rtbook/2012/chart2.11.pdf
For whom it is
easy to find job:
Young or Adult?
http://www.bls.gov/fls/chartbook/20
12/chart2.10.pdf
Which sector
provide more
jobs?
• Industry
• Service
• Agricultural
http://www.bls.gov/fls/chartbook/201
2/chart2.8.pdf
Homework