Dr. Le Trung Tinh
Dr. Le Vinh Truong
Toulouse, July August 2014
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Plan
 Southeast Asian Sea – the setting
 Persistent negotiations
 Initiating a lawsuit - a diplomatic move & a preventive weapon




in international affairs
Taking China to court and/or War
Political impacts from initiating a lawsuit against China
China’s economic reprisals
Conclusions
1. Southeast Asian Sea – the
setting
 19/01/1974:
Source: http://vnexpress
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• 2012, 300 fishermen in Quang
Ngai seized by China
• 2013, China changed from
arresting
into
chasing,
shooting, ramming Vietnamese
fishing
boats,
destroying
fishing instruments, equipment
and boats of Vietnamese
fishermen
Vietnamese fishing boat burnt
by Chinese on 20 March 2013
• 2014,
«Measures
for
implementing Chinese Fishery
Law of Hainan Province"
 Haiyang Shiyou-981 (HY-981)
Source: http://www.straight.com
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 Protect HY-981: protective vessels  attacked
ships of Vietnamese functional forces by water
cannons
Source: Tuoi Tre
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2. Persistent negotiations?
Source: http://www.baomoi.com
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 Disadvantage:
- Offensive (oil rigs, airplanes,
warships)
- Devised plans (cutting off
cables of Binh Minh 2,
introducing U-shaped line,
printing U-shaped line in
passport…)
 Negotiation: Vietnam 
concession unprofitable
solution for international
support
Source: Huy Duong and Tuan
Pham, Nautilus Institute
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 Advantage (?): mild
mitigation of China’s
encroachment (Ex: COC)
>< Vietnam: trade off
economic, political
concessions
 Negotiation:
Regrettable solution
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3. Initiating a lawsuit - a diplomatic
move & a preventive weapon in
international affairs
Liberalism
vs.
Realism
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Source: http://rcsinvestments.files.wordpress.com
 Vietnam (small country): make advantage of
values from Liberalism (UNCLOS 1982, UN
Charter, Int’ Court of Justice, International
Tribunal for the Law of the Sea)
Dissuasion weapon  preventing tensions to
war
 “Persistence in peaceful negotiation”, “16
Golden Words”, “4 Goods”  not belong to
any school of int’ relations intimidation,
arrangement
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 Suggestion: initiate a lawsuit
1. HY-981  International Tribunal for the Law of the
Sea (German)/ International Court of Justice
(Netherlands)/ court established in accordance with
UNCLOS procedure as in the measure taken by the
Philippines
2. Dispute over Paracel archipelago  International
Court of Justice
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Source: http://www.itlos.org
 http://www.viet.rfi.fr/viet-nam/20140125-
tren-15000-ngan-chu-ky-vi-hoang-sa-goi-denlien-hiep-quoc
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 http://www.boxitvn.net/bai/26708
 Lê Trung Tĩnh, Nguyễn Quang A
 Thứ Hai ngày 26/5/2014, Thư yêu cầu lãnh đạo Việt Nam đưa Trung
Quốc ra tòa đã được gửi đến ba nhà lãnh đạo của Việt Nam: ông
Trương Tấn Sang, ông Nguyễn Tấn Dũng, và ông Nguyễn Sinh Hùng.
http://boxitvn.blogspot.fr/2014/06/ung-nen-lay-viec-kien-ra-macca.html
Đừng nên lấy việc kiện ra mặc cả
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4. Taking China to court and/or
War
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Source: http://projectdoorway.files.wordpress.com
4.1. Persistent negotiation  potential risks of
war
- Maintain protest at sea by fisheries
surveillance vessels  armed conflicts at sea
- Localized attacks  pressure, fright 
Vietnam: either surrender or counterattack 
war
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4.2. War would not help solving dispute
- War  unlikely to help settle dispute
thoroughly (from history: 1974, 1979, 1988…)
- Legal means  each party: fair, free to use
tools (reasoning, evidences), judgment:
rational, clear-cut, public, enjoy international
recognition
- War crimes + sufferings
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4.3. War erases history
- Each party distorts related history for its sake
 heroic, pathetic images
- Decades  disillusioned  hope no war
4.4. Lawsuit as means of war prevention
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5. Political impacts from initiating
a lawsuit against China
 New manner of response to China
 Free from China’s politico-economic influence
 Enhance mutual understanding, reconciliation
among Vietnamese people
 Vietnamese: get access to universal values 
request justice
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6. China’s possible immediate &
short-term economic reprisals
 Block some imports from Vietnam for some
period of time (Ex: Philippines)
Source: http://www.ecvv.com
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7. Long-term macro-economic
reprisals related to trade balance,
cooperation, investment
Short term: affect Vietnamese people’s living
Medium, long term:  solve weaknesses, free
from China’s shade  more equitable partners
(U.S., EU…)
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8. China’s possible economic
reprisals in long term
 Not easy / ready for China to take economic
reprisals (Ex: Philippines, Vietnam’s approval
of Law on Vietnamese Sea 21/06/2012)
 Economic ties among countries  globally
monitored, criticized if “unreasonable” and
prolonged
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9. Conclusion
 Initiate a lawsuit against China:
- civilized action
- Active form of foreign relations, effective
solution of war prevention
- Create positive political impacts
 Dealing with economic reprisals
 Short term: some difficulties
 Long term: solve problems, weaknesses in
economic relations with China
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THANK YOU
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