Integrated Approach to
Energy Planning
Demand Management
MSU Issues &
Opportunities
Supply Management
Integrated Energy
Planning Moving
Forward
Kathy Lindahl, MSU | Nick Travis and Rob McKenna, Energy Strategies, LLC
MSU Issues
• Powerplant capacity issue
• CCX – CO2 emission constraints
– Nationally – something will happen
• Technologies
– What do we buy next
– Is it ripe enough
• Growth - Continue to add 1MM GSF per decade
– 2MM in most recent decade
• Deferred maintenance
• Driving for flexibility
• How to integrate the ability to make good financial decision
while managing other complexities.
Physical Plant Division
Peak Annual Demands
18
125
16
105
14
FIRM ELECTRIC CAPACITY 90,000 KW
12
85
10
FIRM STEAM CAPACITY 950,000 Pounds/Hour
65
8
45
2023
“Tipping
Point”
25
5
1950-51
6
4
2
1960-61
1970-71
1980-81
1990-91
2000-01
2010-11
2020-21
Fiscal Year
Electric (1,000 Kilowatts)
Total Electric Capacity 114,000 KW
Steam (100,000 Pounds/Hour)
Total Steam Capacity 1,300,000 #/Hour
2030-31
Bend the Line
toward Environmental Stewardship
"Dr. King once said that the arc of the moral
universe is long but it bends towards justice. It
bends towards justice, but here is the thing: it
does not bend on its own. It bends because
each of us in our own ways put our hand on
that arc and we bend it in the direction of
justice....“
Senator Barack Obama
Integrated Decision Support Framework
Economic, Financial and Decision Analysis
Strategic Planning
Development &
Implementation
Operation
Integrated Strategic
Resource Planning
Investment Analysis
Procurement
Funding
Rate Design
Contract Negotiations
Regulatory Intervention
Examples:
•Energy/Utility Master Plans
•Climate Action Plans
Dynamic Baseline & Performance Measurement
Regulatory & Policy Support
Market Monitoring & Intelligence
Internal Subject Matter Expertise
Supplemental External Subject Matter
Expertise (e.g. technical, legal)
Internal Leadership
MSU General Analytical Direction
Definition & Scope
Measure Performance
Add,
Renovate
&
Demolish
Define Decision
Metrics
Add
Givens
Analyze Historical
Data
Define Starting
“Test Year”
Create
Baseline
Reference
Case
Invest in
Energy
Conservation
Modify
Behavior,
Space Use
& Building
Standards
Vary Utility
Plant
Operations
Impact
Demand
Apply
Alternative
Utility Plant
Technology
Impact
Supply
Vary
Procurement
Practices
Vary External Planning Environment
Feedback & Adjustment
You Can’t Manage What You Don’t Measure
Expand Metrics for Insight & Trade Offs
Ideal
"Buckets" for Decision Metrics
Ideal
Sample Trade off
Outreach (OML)
Sample Trade off
Cost of Service (FS)
6
Capital Intensity (FS)
5
Fiscal Stewardship (FS)
6
Local Economy (OML)
5
4
Bonding Capacity (FS)
3
4
3
2
Research (OML)
Capital Efficiency (FS)
2
1
1
Other Mission Linked (OML)
0
Operational Excellence (OE)
0
Solid Waste (ES)
Financial Risk (FS)
Water (ES)
Reliability (OE)
Environmental Stewardship (ES)
GHG Emissions (ES)
Criteria Pollutants (ES)
Efficiency (OE)
Capacity Constraints (OE)
Illustration
Expand Grid Purchases Option
Supply - Plant
Operation
Practices
Energy Management
Category
Sub-Category
Make vs. Buy
Electricity
Fuel Switching
Baseline Reference
Case
Minimize Grid
Purchases
Minimize CTG
Maximize Coal
Use
Alternatives
Minimize Grid
Purchases
Expand CTG
Use
Expand Grid
Purchases
Expand NG Use
Expand Biomass
Use
Dashboard – Expand Grid Purchases
An Elemental Understanding of Value Drivers per MWh
Expand Grid Purchases
Operational Excellence
Energy Intensity
Environmental Stewardship
GHG Intensity
25
19
-3
-6
15
15
10
10
5
0
3
Electric
Condensing
energy made steam
Fuel &
Electric
power to
energy
make steam purchased
Grid losses
Net
(increase)
decrease
mtCO2e
MMBtu
20
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1.6
-0.9
-0.1
Fuel - Coal
Electricity
purchased
Grid
transmission
losses
0.7
Net (increase)
decrease
What if: Vary Grid Purchases
So Peak is Set by Non-Discretionary Steam Demands
INPUTS
Link to Glossary
CHANGE IN GRID PURCHASES BY RATE PERIOD
Targeted Reduction in Peak Steam Production
Winter (Oct-May), Off-Peak Hours (7PM-11AM)
Winter (Oct-May), On-Peak Hours (11AM-7PM)
Scenario:
VALUE
18.4
1.5
5.3
Summer (Jun-Sep), Off-Peak Hours (7PM-11AM)
Summer (Jun-Sep), On-Peak Hours (11AM-7PM)
Load Factor
2010$MM
$3.0
$2.0
1.0
7.1
30%
Peak Follow
UNIT
MW equivalent
Avg MW per hour
Avg MW per hour
Avg MW per hour
Avg MW per hour
Percent
$0.9 ($0.8)
$1.7
$1.0
($3.0)
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
($1.2) $0.0 ($1.2)
($1.0)
($2.0)
Fuel
Non-fuel Electric Electric
Green
opex
purchases purchases power
- energy - demand premium
Capital
Net
(increase)
decrease
w/o
carbon
Carbon
Net
(increase)
decrease
w/ carbon
What if: Purchase Blocks of Grid Power to Spread Fixed
Capacity Charges over More MWh
INPUTS
Link to Glossary
CHANGE IN GRID PURCHASES BY RATE PERIOD
Targeted Reduction in Peak Steam Production
Winter (Oct-May), Off-Peak Hours (7PM-11AM)
Winter (Oct-May), On-Peak Hours (11AM-7PM)
Scenario:
VALUE
12.5
10.0
10.0
2010$MM
Summer (Jun-Sep), Off-Peak Hours (7PM-11AM)
Summer (Jun-Sep), On-Peak Hours (11AM-7PM)
Load Factor
$12.0
$10.0
$8.0
$6.0
$4.0
$2.0
$0.0
10.0
10.0
80%
Block
UNIT
MW equivalent
Avg MW per hour
Avg MW per hour
Avg MW per hour
Avg MW per hour
Percent
$3.6 ($2.7)
$7.0
Fuel
$5.8
$5.8
($2.0)
$0.0
Non-fuel Electric Electric
Green
opex
purchases purchases power
- energy - demand premium
$0.0
Capital
$0.0
Net
(increase)
decrease
w/o
carbon
Carbon
Net
(increase)
decrease
w/ carbon
What if: Purchase Green Power to Avoid Grid GHG Emissions
143.1
-78.7
-5.9
Fuel - Coal
$12.0
$10.0
$8.0
$6.0
$4.0
$2.0
$0.0
With 100% Green Power
Electricity
purchased
Grid transmission
losses
mtCO2e (000's)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010$MM
mtCO2e (000's)
Without Green Power
58.5
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Net (increase)
decrease
143.1
0.0
-5.9
137.2
Fuel - Coal
Electricity
purchased
Grid transmission
losses
Net (increase)
decrease
$3.6 ($2.7)
$7.0
($2.0)
$0.0
Fuel
Non-fuel Electric Electric
Green
opex
purchases purchases power
- energy - demand premium
$3.8
$3.8
($2.0)
Capital
$0.0
Net
(increase)
decrease
w/o
carbon
Carbon
Net
(increase)
decrease
w/ carbon
Vision of Integrated Planning Tools in
the Future