PROGRAM INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID)
APPRAISAL STAGE
Report No.: AB7407
Operation Name
Region
Country
Sector
Operation ID
Lending Instrument
Borrower(s)
Implementing Agency
Date PID Updated
Estimated Date of Appraisal
Estimated Date of Board
Approval
Corporate Review Decision
I.
Third Upper Secondary Education Development Policy Loan
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN
Mexico
Secondary education (70%); Vocational training (30%)
P147244
Development Policy Lending
United Mexican States
Secretariat of Public Education
October 23, 2013
October 16, 2013
December 19, 2013
Following the corporate review, the decision was taken to
proceed with the appraisal and negotiation of the operation.
Country and Sector Background
1.
Mexico is an upper middle income country with one of the highest per capita
incomes in Latin America and the Caribbean. A member of the OECD and the G20,
Mexico has maintained economic stability through times of recent crisis, and increased
economic and social well-being over the last two decades. Still, Mexico faces challenges of
poverty and inequality, due in part to stagnant productivity. As such, one of the pillars of the
new Country Partnership Strategy between Mexico and the World Bank, Increasing Social
Prosperity, aims to improve social prosperity and alleviate poverty through improving
education outcomes, thereby enhancing labor market productivity, especially for the poorest.
2.
Enhancing skills through improved education quality is a core part of increasing
labor force productivity, long term economic growth, shared prosperity and alleviating
poverty. The Bank’s education portfolio therefore supports the Government of Mexico’s
efforts to improve the quality at all levels of education, throughout the lifecycle (see Figure
1). A critical tool in enhancing labor market productivity is through upper secondary
education (Educación Media Superior, EMS), where the Bank has supported Mexico’s
Secretariat of Public Education (Secretaría de Educación Pública, SEP) since 2008 through a
tailored suite of services. The suite has consisted of financial (programmatic series of
Development Policy Loans), knowledge and convening services, such as benchmarking the
reform with other regional experiences, providing ‘just in time’ technical assistance and
organizing workshops and south-south activities in priority topics for SEP such as teacher
training and policies and strategies for reducing dropouts.
3.
This proposed Upper Secondary Education Development Policy Loan would be
the third loan to support the Government’s Integral Upper Secondary Education
Reform (Reforma Integral de la Educación Media Superior, RIEMS). The Reform,
implemented by the Under Secretariat for Upper Secondary Education (Subsecretaría de
1
Educación Media Superior, SEMS) of SEP, aims to improve the internal efficiency and
quality of upper secondary education. The programmatic series supports actions in the
following three areas addressing the key constraints of the EMS system: (i) improving
flexibility of upper secondary education; (ii) enhancing quality of education; and (iii)
reducing the opportunity cost of upper secondary education.
The expected long-term
outcomes of the reform include a reduction in dropout rates and an increase in learning
outcomes, both effects linked to labor market productivity and long term economic growth.
There is growing consensus that productivity and economic growth depend on the quantity
and quality of a society’s human capital, which are necessary both to fuel innovation and to
absorb and adapt technologies developed in other countries (Hanushek and Woessmann,
2008). And education yields a host of other development benefits as well, such as improving
the health of learners and the education of their children (Lleras-Muney, 2005).
4.
RIEMS is a long-term process, built upon evidence and consensus. The first
Development Policy Loan (DPL) supported the establishment of the National Upper
Secondary Education System (Sistema Nacional de Bachillerato, SNB), including the
development of minimum standards for students, a student assessment system, a teacher
training program, and a school accreditation system, as well as the consolidation of the EMS
scholarship program. The second Loan further strengthened RIEMS during an important
political transition, focusing on the approval of technical programs, the operation of the
student assessment and school accreditation systems, the governance of the teacher training
program, and the expansion of services for youth at risk. To support this next phase of the
Government’s reform, this proposed DPL would support policy actions around recognizing
the equivalencies necessary for transferring from school to school (irrespective of system), the
establishment of an autonomous evaluation agency for the education system, a new policy for
teacher training, innovations around supporting youth at risk of dropping out of school and
enacting legislative changes to declare EMS mandatory. The proposed amount for the Third
Upper Secondary Education Development Policy Loan is US$300 million.
2
Figure 1: Stages of Engagement in Upper Secondary Education in Mexico: Skills for
Shared Growth
Foundations and early
support
[1995–2003]
Expanding support
[2009-2013]
Knowledge
Services
 Enhancing Productivity,
 PSIA: Support for
Knowledge, and
Improving Equity in
Competitiveness in
the Mexico Upper
Mexico (P084566,
Secondary Education
2006)
Reform (TF011538,
 Secondary Education
2014)
(P106567, 2008)
 Higher Education
Financing Project
(P049895, US$180.2
million, 1998)
 Knowledge and
Innovation Project
(P044531, US$300
million, 1998)
 Innovation for
Competitiveness
(P089865, US$250
million, 2005)
 Tertiary Education
Student Assistance
Project (P085593,
US$171 million, 2005)
CAS 95-97, 97-99,
99-02, 02-05
II.
 Upper Secondary
Education DPL
(P112262, US$700
million, 2010)
 Upper Secondary
Education DPL II
(P126297,
US$300,751,879.70,
2012)
 Dissemination of
study: “Educación
Superior y Desarrollo
en Oaxaca” (IO
2074684) (February
2013)
 Presentation to SEMS:
“La Educación Media
Superior Después de 5
años de Reforma”
(April 2013)
 Learning exchange on
Upper Secondary
Education during a
visit of SEMS
authorities to World
Bank Headquarters
(May 2013)
Convening Services
Financial Services
Broadening
engagement
[2004–2009]
FY03-07 CPS
FY08-13 CPS
Consolidation
[2013-beyond]
 Improving Skills
for Enhanced
Labor Market
Productivity PKS
(P128775, 2014)
 Upper Secondary
Education DPL
III (P147244,
US$300 million,
2013)
 Workshop on and
presentation of a
Policy Note
offering a
disaggregated
analysis of dropout
determinants in
Mexico (July
2013)
FY14-19 CPS
Operation Objectives
5.
The proposed Development Policy Loan is the third in a programmatic series
that supports the Government in the implementation of RIEMS to improve the internal
efficiency and quality of EMS. The programmatic series supports actions in the following
three areas addressing the key constraints of EMS: (i) improving flexibility of upper
secondary education; (ii) enhancing quality of education; and (iii) reducing the opportunity
3
cost of upper secondary education. Actions supported by the DPL series will contribute to the
internal efficiency of upper secondary education and lead to a reduction in the dropout rate.
Graduates will be better prepared with the necessary skills for a modern workforce.
6.
The first DPL supported the establishment of the National Upper Secondary
Education System (SNB). Under the DPL, the World Bank supported the legal steps to
formalize the reform and the definition of the first set of minimum standards needed for upper
secondary graduates. The DPL also supported actions to establish a national evaluation
system and a school accreditation system for EMS, as well as the establishment of the teacher
training program (PROFORDEMS) and the consolidation of the EMS scholarship program.
7.
The second DPL helped maintain the continuity of the reform and strengthening
key institutions. With regards to the SNB, DPL II supported the completion of CompetencyBased Curriculum. In terms of quality, it furthered the EMS evaluation agenda, and endorsed
actions that consolidated the institutional governance over the flagship teacher training
program PROFORDEMS and that fortified the quality assurance system through COPEEMS.
With regards to the opportunity cost of EMS, it supported actions related to targeted
approaches to attracting and keeping poor students in school, such as the scholarship program.
The second operation of the DPL was accompanied by technical assistance on a wide variety
of issues, and will end in November 2013.
8.
With this third DPL, the series addresses the most important reform to date for
EMS, together with remaining critical actions to help consolidate the reform. Most
important among the policy actions supported under this operation is the constitutional
amendment rendering upper secondary education mandatory. The enactment of the associated
law represents the most influential policy action for all those reaching the age for upper
secondary education (15 to 18 years old). The prior actions flow directly from the indicative
triggers and have been selected to reflect high priority policy and institutional measures
central to RIEMS. Table 2 presents the indicative triggers and prior actions for DPL III.
9.
Still, the reform is young, and will require more time to achieve the DPL series
results indicators. As per Table 1, five of six results indicators are on-track, with the
exception of the percentage of students scoring good or excellent on ENLACE for Spanish.
Among the elements contributing to the results are a number of important gains across
Reform areas. There are 668 schools evaluated for accreditation, of which 658 have gained
entrance to the National Upper Secondary Education System (Sistema Nacional de
Bachillerato). The government continues with the timely publication of student assessment
results, including EXCALE, a detailed exam applied to representative samples of the school
population. Agreements between the federal and state authorities have also been reached to
implement programs combating student dropouts (previously clustered under SIGUELE).
Progress has been slower with respect to enrolling, graduating and certifying teachers in the
national teacher training program (Programa de Formación Docente de Educación Media
Superior, PROFORDEMS) and in the adoption of the complete competency-based curriculum
(CBC) by all the systems of the four service providers. With regards to PROFORDEMS, the
new administration slowed the expansion of the program while it updated its design and
relevance, a decision endorsed by the Bank, as reflected in prior action number 4. For the
CBC, a considerable number of systems within the four types of providers accounting for
3,497,146 students (equivalent to 80.7 percent of the total EMS population) have adopted the
4
CBC. However, since this aspect of the reform is voluntary, it will be some time before all
systems have adopted the new curriculum. Yet, it is important to mention that most state and
autonomous systems (apart from the autonomous system operated by Universidad Nacional
Autónoma de México, UNAM1) have joined the reform and actively participate in the
reform’s activities.
Table 1: Results of the RIEMS (as of August, 2013)2
Baseline
(2008)
1. Improving Flexibility of Upper Secondary Education
Upper secondary public schools that
accept student transfers and validate
0%
equivalencies, as share of total public
schools in EMS
2. Enhancing Quality of Upper Secondary Education
Completion rate in upper secondary
education
58.3%
Current
(2013)
End of DPL III
(June 2015)
10.4%
12%
63.8%
65.0%
Spanish: 52.3%
50.0%
53.0%
Math: 15.6%
36.3%
37.0%
Program Outcome
Percentage of students scoring “good”
or “excellent” on the ENLACE
assessment in Spanish/Math
Percentage of students attending
Spanish: 26.6%
30.5%
schools in very highly marginalized
localities scoring “good” or
“excellent” on the ENLACE
Math: 6%
27%
assessment Spanish/Math
3. Reducing Opportunity Cost of Upper Secondary Education
Completion rates in EMS for the
47%
49%
lowest income quintile
Transition rate from lower to upper
secondary school for the lowest
income quintile
57%
1
63%
31.0%
29%
50%
64%
UNAM is considered to have the highest quality of any public EMS system. Already having a well-recognized
system UNAM sees few benefits on joining the reform for the institution or its students.
2
Years represent end of school year. For example, 2008 refers to school year 2007-2008, ending in June.
5
Table 2: Triggers and Prior Actions
Indicative Triggers
DPL III prior actions
Comments
1. Improving Flexibility of Upper Secondary Education
SEP issues rules (through acuerdo
secretarial or other instrument) for
the Certificado Nacional de
Bachillerato.
Dropped. The new Government has delayed the
introduction of the Certificado Nacional de
Bachillerato, instead using accreditation of schools as
basis for establishing coherence system-wide.
The Borrower has recognized equivalences of
subjects across schools to facilitate the transfer of
students between systems, as evidenced by: (i) the
Borrower’s Decrees (which modified the General
Education Law) duly published in the Official
Gazette on June 10 and September 11, 2013; and
(ii) Resolution No._______, dated June 14, 2013
issued by CONAEDU.
New. This prior action is the last element required to
render the EMS system more flexible for students.
Having developed the Competency-Based Curriculum,
the pending element to facilitate transfers of students
between systems is the agreement among state and
federal education authorities, as represented by
CONAEDU, on the recognition of equivalencies,
through the student registry.
2. Enhancing Quality of Upper Secondary Education
SEP and INEE entered into
partnership agreements with some
states to disseminate results from
the National Evaluation System.
The Borrower has: (i) established INEE's mandate,
functions and responsibilities and internal
organization; and (ii) granted INEE full legal,
technical and financial autonomy and new
responsibilities, including those related to the
evaluation of Upper Secondary Education, as
evidenced by the Borrower’s Law (Ley del Instituto
Nacional para la Evaluación de la Educación)
duly published in the Official Gazette on
September 11, 2013.
6
Reformulated to reflect new law. The prior action is
stronger than the trigger. The trigger focused on
dissemination of evaluation results while the prior
action grants INEE full autonomy (including
budgetary) from SEP to carry out all evaluation
functions, hereby removing any possible conflicts of
interest. This includes using evaluation results for
informing education policy, thus creating a link
between the Institute’s new legal attributions and the
quality of education services.
Indicative Triggers
DPL III prior actions
SEP has developed a policy for
training part-time public teachers.
SEP has developed a mechanism to
officially recognize alternative
teacher training programs.
Comments
Dropped. The new law establishing the
professionalization of the teaching career (Ley del
Servicio Profesional Docente) requires that all teachers
(including part-time teachers) participate in
professional development and training activities. The
policy for training part-time teachers at the upper
secondary level is still being developed.
The Borrower has issued regulations to officially
recognize alternative teacher training programs
under the National Upper Secondary Education
System, as evidenced by ACUERDO 15 issued by
the Comité Directivo del Sistema Nacional de
Bachillerato Sectorial, published in _____ on June
13, 2013.
Reformulated to strengthen wording. This prior
action builds on the indicative trigger of DPL II.
3. Reducing Opportunity Cost of Upper Secondary Education
SEP carries out an evaluation of
SIGUELE.
The Borrower, through SEP, has introduced a new
modality to award scholarships under SEP
scholarship program in order to improve the
targeting of students at risk of dropping out, as
evidenced by SEP’s Acuerdo No. 690, published in
the Official Gazette on August 19, 2013.
7
Reformulated to focus on government priority. Thus
far, the new Government has focused on improving the
largest element of SIGUELE, the scholarship program,
using recent evaluations to inform the new directions
of the program.
Indicative Triggers
Mexico has developed a policy
framework that assures universal
EMS.
DPL III prior actions
The Borrower has made Upper Secondary
Education compulsory, as evidenced by the
Borrower’s Decree (which modified the General
Education Law) published in the Official Gazette
on June 6, 2013.
8
Comments
Reformulated to strengthen wording. This prior
action flows directly from the indicative trigger.
III.
Rationale for Bank Involvement
10.
This operation fits squarely under the “Increasing Social Prosperity” pillar of
Mexico’s Country Program Strategy with the World Bank. The pillar aims to improve social
prosperity and alleviate poverty through enhancing labor market productivity and improving
education outcomes, especially for the poorest. This operation will contribute to more people
completing upper secondary and with the right skills, thereby increasing productivity and
boosting shared prosperity. What is more, both have a strong focus on equity: the pillar aims to
reduce poverty and increase prosperity through increasing wages of those at the bottom of the
income distribution. To do so, this operation focuses on improving the skills and preparedness
for young Mexicans entering the labor market, with activities aimed at reducing the dropout rate
of those in the bottom quintile.
11.
The tailored suite of Bank services in the education sector is also well aligned to the
CPS. This operation, the third in a programmatic series, is part of a larger package of services
which include: i) knowledge services, especially with regards to policies for reducing dropouts,
ii) convening services, featuring south-south activities with other recent experiences of
secondary education reform (Brazil, Chile), and iii) financial services, including this and
previous Development Policy Loans.
IV.
Tentative financing
Source:
Borrower
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Borrower/Recipient
($m.)
0.00
300.00
Total
V.
300.00
Institutional and Implementation Arrangements
12.
The Secretariat of Public Education (SEP), through its Under Secretariat for Upper
Secondary Education (Subsecretaría de Educación Media Superior, SEMS), is responsible
for the implementation of the DPL series. Although the reform represents a joint effort of
many actors in the education sector, SEMS is the lead agency coordinating and supporting the
reform. Together with the Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (Secretaría de Hacienda y
Crédito Público, SHCP), SEMS will collect the necessary data to assess the implementation of
the program, including evidence on the achievement of prior actions, and reporting on progress
toward output and outcome indicators. This implementation arrangement worked well for the
previous operations of the DPL series.
13.
Evaluation of the quality of EMS is at the heart of the reform, as well as the
accompanying technical cooperation agenda between SEMS and the Bank. Specifically, this
operation supports the establishment of a new autonomous agency that will be responsible for
evaluating the performance of schools, teachers, and students throughout Mexico’s education
system, and the technical assistance program that accompanies the DPL is heavily focused on
evaluation. With regards to monitoring, the Information System for Education Management of
EMS (Sistema de Información para la Gestión Escolar de la Educación Media Superior,
9
SIGEEMS) is a system operating in all federal schools issuing a clear diagnosis of the most
important challenges in each school and the evolution of basic indicators over time, improving
the effectiveness of schools’ improvement plans.3 SEMS is in a dialogue with States and other
upper secondary education providers to develop a unitary information system for the schools,
offering the SIGEEMS as the initial platform. Several systems have accepted this expanded
system. In addition, many of the institutions created under RIEMS also have monitoring
functions. COPEEMS, for instance, which systematically gathers data to evaluate the quality of
individual schools for the purposes of accreditation, makes this data available to stakeholders.
Fiduciary Aspects
Public Financial Management
14.
The public financial management (PFM) systems at the Federal level are adequate
to support development policy lending in the country. This has been documented in several
Bank reports (i.e. the Country Financial Accountability Assessment (CFAA), the Country
Procurement Assessment Report (CPAR), and other analytical work, including knowledge
services products and other DPLs approved in 2012. As envisioned in the last CPS, the Bank has
been collaborating with the Government at the federal and sub-national level in strategic PFM
areas aimed at modernizing and reforming public finances, and improving transparency and
accountability of public expenditures. This has been supported through a flexible and tailored
package of financial, knowledge and convening services.
15.
During prior administrations, the Government introduced a number of laws and
policy reforms in public finances aimed at improving fiscal responsibility and transparency
by modernizing the budget process and creating a more efficient and transparent fiscal
framework in line with international good practices. The current administration has launched
a reform program and is working towards achieving various PFM reforms in areas such as
budgeting, accounting, financial reporting, transparency, and modernization of its treasury
operations, amongst others. The funding from this DPL will support the Federal Expenditure
Budget (Presupuesto de Egresos de la Federación, PEF) and, accordingly, will be subject to
provisions of the annual PEF Law, the Federal Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Law, the
Government Accounting Law, and the Manual of Budget Procedures among others. The PEF is
published in a timely manner and is available in the SHCP’s website4 for the current and prior
years.
16.
The set of legal and regulatory arrangements, together with the country financial
management operating systems, provides for sound budget formulation, execution and
internal control arrangements for execution of public expenditures. The Federal
Government has implemented a financial information management system (Sistema de
Contabilidad y Presupuesto, SICOP) at the federal level, and there are relevant advances
regarding accounting harmonization at the Federal level. The newly created Evaluation Unit in
3
The SIGEEMS complements the existing Formato 911 monitoring system in the federal schools. The 911 system,
which operates in all schools at both the basic and upper secondary levels, contains over 300 indicators. In addition
to the school based indicators, SIGEEMS includes information on students, learning outcomes and annual goals set
by the school principals.
4
http://www.apartados.hacienda.gob.mx/presupuesto/temas/pef/2013/index.html
10
SHCP in coordination with CONEVAL has been developing a system to measure program
performance and consolidating evaluations. There is evidence that this program performance
information is used during budget preparation between SHCP and line ministries. On treasury
operations, the Government has made significant advances in modernizing its treasury operations
and implementing a Single Treasury Account system. On internal control, the Government is
undergoing a reform aimed at eliminating the Ministry of Public Administration (Secretaria de
la Función Pública, SFP) and transferring some of its functions to the SHCP, which will
eliminate the dependency of the Heads of the Internal Control Units to the SFP, establishing a
line of reporting to the Head of each public entity. In parallel, there is an initiative for creating an
Anti-Corruption Agency. Both proposals are related and are being discussed in Congress.
17.
Notwithstanding the reform progress, there are important challenges in the
implementation of some of these reforms. For example, regarding accounting harmonization,
the overall implementation process at subnational level has faced major challenges, such as the
lack of information systems to implement the accounting harmonization regulations; the SICOP
only processes and consolidates information at an aggregated level, which entails that entities
usually need to maintain their own information systems for keeping detailed accounting
registries, and, it is still pending the issuance of a modernized Treasury Law.
18.
As for external oversight, the Federal Supreme Audit Institution conducts, on a
regular basis, a number of audits (i.e. financial, performance and compliance audits) on
federal Government programs. The annual public accounts are prepared and sent to Congress
within four months of the end of each fiscal year. The external audit of these accounts is
undertaken by the Auditor General’s office and submitted to the legislature fourteen months after
the end of each fiscal year in accordance with national legislation. Audit reports are
comprehensive and there is a system in place to follow up on audit findings and
recommendations, in coordination with the SFP. The results of audits by the Auditor General’s
office are made public in the Annual Audit Report on the Federal Public Accounts. Recent
amendments to the Federal Constitution and a new Law on Supreme Auditing and
Accountability have contributed to the overall strengthening of country fiscal transparency and
accountability.
19.
The current Government has the objective to align public procurement more closely
with economic expenditure policy, aimed at producing value for money, ensuring transparency,
economy and efficiency, while improving the overall quality of the goods and services. In
addition, operational changes as well as amendments to the legal and regulatory framework
advanced in 2009 and 2010 have taken several important steps towards addressing the issues
identified in previous World Bank assessments of the federal procurement system in Mexico
(2007,5 2010,6 and 20117). As envisioned in the Country Procurement Strategy, the World Bank
is collaborating with the Mexican Government in modernizing its public procurement and other
5
The World Bank Country Procurement Assessment Review (CPAR) of 2007 (prepared jointly with the IDB)
identified issues in the public procurement system including excessive regulatory complexity and need for more
effective governance and coordination.
6
Relevant aspects of the legal, operational and institutional structures of the federal procurement system in Mexico
was reviewed as part of the Strengthening the Business Environment for Enhanced Economic Growth Development
Policy Loan, November 2010.
7
World Bank Knowledge Services, November 2011
11
aspects of the PFM. This support is being provided by a number of knowledge services as well as
lending instruments.
20.
Mexico’s external sector has operated successfully under a foreign exchange rate
regime. The exchange rate flexibility has been a key shock absorber of repeated bouts of global
risk aversion, allowing sovereign and financial markets to remain stable. Although the exchange
rate has fluctuated significantly, no major balance sheet or pass-through effects have occurred.
In pursuing the reduction of excessive currency volatility, the central bank introduced a new
Foreign Exchange rule last November, selling U.S. Dollars when the peso depreciates more than
2 percent in any given day. This has been considered to have an important signaling effect.
Mexico has significant foreign exchange buffers to deploy if necessary to limit potential
overshooting and dysfunctional market conditions. Mexico’s external position and real exchange
rate are consistent with underlying fundamentals and desirable policy settings.8
Disbursement and Auditing
21.
The SHCP has informed the Bank that Nacional Financiera (NAFIN) will be the
financial agent of the Borrower with regard to this operation. Under this arrangement, upon
effectiveness of the loan, the Bank will deposit the single tranche disbursement to a designated
account in US Dollars of the financial agent9for subsequent credit by the financial agent to an
account of the National Treasury (SHCP/Tesorería de la Federación, or TESOFE) used for
budgeted expenditures. Based on the review of the financial agent’s 2011 and 2012 audit reports
and the extensive experience between the Bank and the financial agent regarding funds flow
from Bank-financed projects, there is no evidence that the banking control environment into
which the loan proceeds would flow is other than adequate.
22.
Based on the overall assessment of the borrower’s current PFM and the conclusion
that the fiduciary arrangements for this DPL are adequate, the Bank will not require an
audit of the designated account. During implementation, and after funds are disbursed, NAFIN
would provide the Bank with a written confirmation supporting the described funds flow
transaction in the above paragraph, and no additional fiduciary arrangements are deemed
necessary.
VI.
Risks and Risk Mitigation
23.
The overall Risk Rating is Moderate. The operation is subject to three sets of risks: i)
macroeconomic risks; ii) political, governance and stakeholder risks, and iii) sector policies and
institutions risks.10 With regards to macroeconomic risks, an economic slowdown could make it
difficult for the Mexican Government and state governments to finance the reform program and
provide additional resources. However, as explained in a previous section, the fundamentals of
the Mexican economy do not lead to foresee a slowdown in coming years 2014 to 2016.
Furthermore, the strong consensus on the importance of the reform makes it unlikely that the
8
Source: IMF Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation on Mexico. November 2012.
The use of a financial agent and designated account is a local standard procedure established by the Government of
Mexico, and the fiduciary roles and responsibilities of the financial agent are included in a legal agreement between
the SHCP and the financial agent, called “Contrato de Mandato”.
10
For a more complete discussion of risks to the DPL series, see DPL II Program Document
9
12
macroeconomic situation will prevent the Government from implementing the reforms described
in the MUSE DPL series. With regards to political risk, the new government has endorsed and
even furthered the upper secondary education reform, and is unlikely to change course
significantly, allowing the reform to consolidate gains and achieve its goals. However, the recent
Constitutional Reform which aims to improve quality of education has caused a series of protests
by the Coordinadora Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación (CNTE), a Union which
controls a small fraction of the basic education teachers in Mexico (100 thousand affiliated out of
a total 1.3 million teachers). While some concessions have been made to CNTE through these
negotiations, it is not expected that the overall program proposed under this DPL would be
affected by this situation since upper secondary education (Educación Media Superior, EMS)
teachers are not affiliated to CNTE. The teachers unions that do include EMS teachers, such as
the Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores en Educación, have generally supported the RIEMS.
With respect to the institutional risk, there is a risk that the complex nature of the upper
secondary education system could impact effective and timely implementation of the RIEMS.
Currently, the system is characterized by more than thirty separate systems, with uneven
technical capacity across federal, state, autonomous universities and private establishments that
deliver EMS, a complexity that is compounded by the multi-institutional nature of the reform.
This risk is mitigated by the creation of SEMS, which has strengthened the coordination of the
system, and has placed the responsibility of the reform under the purview of one entity. The
RIEMS has fostered collaboration and consensus among different actors, and introduced
incentives for the different EMS education establishments to implement the reform, such as
financial and technical support to keep pace with the reform, which also serves to mitigate the
risk.
VII.
Poverty and Social Impacts and Environment Aspects
Poverty and Social Impacts
24.
The Reform will have only positive impacts on the poor, and is closing the gaps in
both coverage and quality, helping the bottom 40 percent rise up. When fully implemented,
the reform will lead to higher enrollment and graduation rates for the two poorest quintiles,
bringing them closer to the national average. The Reform primarily targets public schools, where
the great majority of disadvantage students are enrolled. Therefore, while the Reform should
bring higher quality services to all students, students from public schools, with relatively more
disadvantaged backgrounds, will benefit more than their peers in private schools.
25.
The increase in coverage and graduation rates in recent years has been decidedly
pro-poor. According to the ENLACE test, between 2008 and 2013, the proportion of students
enrolled in the final year of EMS that attended a school located in a locality with a very high or
high marginality index increased steadily from 8 percent to 10.5 percent (Table 4). 11 The change
in the composition of students enrolled in EMS favoring disadvantaged students took place in a
11
The National Population Council (Consejo Nacional de Población, CONAPO) ranks all localities according to
their marginality index, a weighted average of literacy, access to basic public utilities, household infrastructure and
average wages. All localities are ranked with ratings from very high marginalization, high marginalization, medium
marginalization, low marginalization, and very low marginalization. While there are a range of people living in each
of these localities, there are few non-poor living in areas with high and very high marginalization. For all the
methodological details see: http://www.conapo.gob.mx/
13
context of increasing overall enrollment rates from 3.6 million in 2006 to 4.2 million students in
2011.
Table 3: Percent of students in the final year of EMS, by marginality level
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
2008
0.4%
7.6%
8.4%
17.7%
65.9%
2009
0.4%
8.1%
8.3%
17.8%
65.4%
2010
0.5%
8.5%
8.5%
17.7%
64.8%
2011
0.6%
8.6%
8.5%
17.5%
64.8%
2012
0.7%
9.2%
8.6%
18.0%
63.5%
2013
0.7%
9.8%
8.7%
18.1%
62.8%
Source: ENLACE EMS
26.
The evidence shows that education quality (as measured by learning outcomes of a
standardized test) is improving for all, particularly the poor. Despite the fact that recent
improvements in enrollment rates have provided access to more marginalized students who were
typically excluded from EMS, ENLACE results show significant improvements in learning
outcomes in mathematics and constant results in language. In 2008, 73 percent of students in the
poorest localities (very high marginality) had unsatisfactory results in math compared to 42
percent in the richest localities (very low marginality). In 2013 these percentages fell to 45 and
25 percent, respectively, reducing the gap from an initial level of 31 percentage points to 20
percentage points, in a context of an overall improvement in math learning outcomes (Figure 2).
As is shown by Figure 3, trends in learning outcomes in Spanish had shown a long term constant
trend, however, the poor to rich gap in the proportion of students with an unsatisfactory result in
Spanish decreased between 2008 and 2013. The improved access to EMS among poor students
coupled with a disproportionate increase in learning for this same group suggests that the Reform
had a profound effect on the system’s ability to provide equality of opportunities in Mexico.
14
Figure 2: Percent of students with an unsatisfactory result, math, by marginality
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2008
2009
Very High
2010
High
2011
Medium
2012
2013
Low
Very Low
Source: ENLACE EMS 2008, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13
Figure 3: Percent of students in an unsatisfactory level of learning, Spanish, by marginality
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2008
2009
Very High
2010
High
2011
Medium
2012
Low
2013
Very Low
Source: ENLACE EMS 2008, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13
27.
There do not appear to be significant differences in coverage by gender, but
learning outcomes vary. Traditionally, men received more education on average than women.
This disparity has largely disappeared; among youth aged 15 to 17 years old, the enrollment rate
15
is 76 percent for both males and females. Overall, male students are significantly more likely to
drop out of upper secondary before graduation, due to the higher opportunity cost of studying
versus entering the labor market.12 In terms of learning outcomes, in Mexico as is the case in
most developing countries, men do better in math and women in language.13 According to
ENLACE, while the men-to-women gap in math has remained largely constant between 2008
and 2013, with men scoring 27 points higher than women (581 to 554), the gap in Spanish has
increased over time, with women now scoring on average 30 points higher than men (506 to
476).
Environmental Aspects
28.
None of the elements under the proposed program are likely to have adverse effects
on the environment. The program does not support actions linked to the construction or
rehabilitation of schools, or other civil works that would likely impact the environment. No
effect is expected on forest and other natural resources as per OP/BP 8.60 (Development Policy
Lending).
VIII. Contact point
World Bank
Contact: Peter Anthony Holland
Title: Senior Education Specialist
Tel: (202) 473-8095
Fax:
Email: pholland@worldbank.org
Borrower
Contact: Juan Bosco Martí Ascencio
Title: Titular de la Unidad de Asuntos Internacionales, Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público
Tel: +52 (55) 3688-1228
Email: bosco_marti@hacienda.gob.mx
IX.
For more information contact:
The InfoShop
The World Bank
1818 H Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20433
Telephone: (202) 458-4500
Fax: (202) 522-1500
Web: http://www.worldbank.org/infoshop
12
Instituto Nacional para Evaluación de Educación. 2011. La Educación Media Superior en México.
For an explanation of gender differences in learning outcomes and their evolution overtime, see Guiso, Monte,
Sapienza and Zingales (2008) “Culture, gender and math”, Science, vol, 320, May 2008.
13
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