Chapter 5 More about Consumption, Investment and Fiscal Policy © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Contents: • • • • • More about consumption function More about saving function More about investment function Fiscal policy Advanced Material 5.1 Net investment is sustained by a favorable and continuous change in determinants • Advanced Material 5.2 Short term and long term effects of investment © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 More about Consumption Function © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Propensity to consume Average propensity to consume (APC) is the consumption per unit of disposable income. C cYd C * C* APC = c Yd Yd Yd Note: When Yd increases, APC drops. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Graphical illustration C C C1 Slope = C1/Yd1 = APC1 C* APC1 +1 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Yd1 Yd Marginal propensity to consume Marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is the change in consumption resulting from a unit change in disposable income. C [c(Yd Yd) C*] (cYd C*) Yd MPC= c c Yd Yd Yd Note: When Yd increases, MPC is unchanged. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Graphical illustration C Slope = ΔC/ΔY = MPC d C C1 C* +1 MPC 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Slope = C1/Yd1 = APC1 Yd1 Yd Graphical representation of consumption function Plotting C against Yd C C = cYd + C* C c C* 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 +1 Yd Plotting C against Y C = cYd+C* = c(Y-tY-T*+qY+Q*)+C* = (c-ct+cq)Y + (C*-cT*+cQ*) C C c (1-t+q) C*- cT* + cQ* 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 +1 Y Determinants of consumption function Change in determinant Effect on consumption function (plotting C against Y) Moves upward along C-function National income Income taxes o Lump sum tax Shifts downward o Proportional tax rate Tilts downward (slope) Shifts upward Wealth Interest rate © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Shifts downward Change in determinant Effect on consumption function (plotting C against Y) Expectation o Future price level↑ o Future income↑ Shifts upward Shifts upward More willing to save Shifts downward Income redistribution (low MPC high MPC) © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Shifts upward Q5.1: What would happen to the aggregate consumption if income is redistributed from (a) the group of high MPC to the group of low MPC (b) the group of high APC to the group of low APC (c) the group of high C to the group of low C © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Q5.2: (a) In general, who have a higher MPC, the rich or the poor? Explain. (b) In general, who have a higher MPC, the young or the old? Explain. Q5.3: Explain why the cost of real consumption is the real interest rate instead of the nominal interest rate. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 More about Saving Function © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Propensity to save Average propensity to save (APS) is the saving per unit of disposable income. S sYd S * S* - C* s (1 c) APS = Yd Yd Yd Yd Note: As S* is negative, when Yd increases, APS increases. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Graphical illustration S S Slope = S1/Yd1 = APS1 APS1 S1 +1 0 S* = -C* © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Yd Yd1 Marginal propensity to save Marginal propensity to save (MPS) is the change in saving resulting from a unit change in disposable income. S [s(Y d Yd) S*] (sYd S*) Yd MPS = s s 1- c Yd Yd Yd Note: When Yd increases, MPS remains unchanged. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Graphical illustration S S Slope = S1 /Yd1 = APS1 MPS1S1 +1 0 S* = -C* © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Yd Yd1 Slope= ΔS/ΔYd = MPS Relation between consumption and saving Yd C C At Yd1 Yd1 < C1 S1 = Yd1 - C1 C* S1 0 C1 Yd1 Yd S S = (1-c)Yd - C* S1 < 0 Dissaving Yd1 S1 -C* © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Yd At Yd2 C Yd2 = C2 S2 = Yd2 – C2 = 0 No dissaving or saving C* 0 S -C* © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Yd C C2 =Yd2 Yd2 Yd S = (1-c)Yd - C* S2 = 0 Yd2 Yd C Yd3 > C3 Yd S3 C S3 = Yd3 – C3 C3 At Yd3 C* S3 > 0 0 Saving S Yd3 S = (1-c)Yd - C* S3 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Yd -C* Yd3 Yd Mathematical relation: S = Yd - C APS = (Yd - C)/Yd = 1 - APC MPS = S Yd C 1 MPC Yd Yd S Q5.5: Refer to the given diagram. When Yd increases, what would happen to C, APC, MPC, S, APS and MPS? 0 © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 S Yd Determinants of saving function T Y T Y C Yd C Yd S S T Y C Yd © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 S Determinants of saving function Change in determinant National income Effect on saving function (plotting S against Y) Moves upward along S-function Income taxes • Lump sum tax • Proportional tax rate Wealth Shifts downward Tilts downward (slope) Shifts downward Interest rate Shifts upward © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Change in determinant Expectation • Future price level • Future income More willing to save Income redistribution (low MPC high MPC) © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Effect on saving function (plotting S against Y) Shifts downward Shifts downward Shifts upward Shifts downward More about Investment Function © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Components of investment function Gross investment = Depreciation + Net investment The amount spent on replacing depreciated capital (depreciation) is positively related to: amount of capital possessed rate of utilization advancement of technology but is negatively related to: interest rate © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Components of investment function The amount spent on raising capital stock (net investment) is positively related to: the desired increase in capital stock but is negatively related to: interest rate © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Determinants of net investment function Suppose expected net receipts = {Y1, Y2, Y3, …} purchase price of capital = Pc , and MEC = e. Then Y1 Y2 Y3 Pc ... 1 2 3 (1 e) (1 e) (1 e) Whenever e r, it is worth buying until e = r. The MEC curve is the demand curve for capital. When r falls, the optimal size of capital stock increases. The difference is the amount of net investment. The portion of MEC curve below r0 is the net I curve. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 The net investment function % r0 MEC curve = Demand for capital r1 % r0 The larger the in r The larger the in the optimal size of capital stock & net I I = br + I*; & b < 0 r1 I 0 K0 0 K1Capital Stock © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 I1 (I1=K1-K0) Net investment Determinants of net investment function Change in determinant Interest rate National income Purchase price of capital Operating cost of other factors © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Effect on investment function Moves upward along I-function Shifts upward (rightward) Shifts downward (leftward) Shifts downward Change in determinant Profits tax rate Effect on investment function Shifts downward Technological improvement and innovation Shifts upward Optimistic expectation on future net receipts Shifts upward © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Fiscal Policy © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 What is fiscal policy? Fiscal policy is the government measure which achieves economic objectives through manipulating the government revenue and expenditure. Types: Automatic fiscal policy Discretionary fiscal policy © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Automatic fiscal policy Automatic stabilizers or built-in stabilizers are government measures that reduce cyclical fluctuations of an economy automatically. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Instruments: Those transfer payments (injection) which are negatively related to income e.g. unemployment benefits, comprehensive social security assistance Those taxes (withdrawal) which are positively related to income e.g. property tax, salaries tax and profits tax © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Recovery Recession The Transfer payments (injection) Automatic stabilizing effect stabilizers of automatic reduce Income taxes (withdrawals) the size of is Risein innational nationalincome incomeisisreduced reduced. stabilizers Fall reflected fluctuations by the and % drop stabilize in the national size of Boom multipliers. income. Trough © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Growth rate of real national income 4 phases of a business cycle Limitations Automatic stabilizers can only reduce, but not eliminate cyclical fluctuations. Discretionary fiscal policy is essential to achieve other macroeconomic objectives, e.g., full employment, economic growth, equitable income distribution, etc. Fiscal drag will weaken the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policy. Built-in stabilizers bring disincentives to work and investment. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Q5.8: Are corporate savings and family savings built-in stabilizers? Do they create disincentives? © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Discretionary fiscal policy Discretionary fiscal policy is the deliberate government measure which achieves economic objectives through manipulating the government revenue and expenditure. Instruments: Government expenditures (G) Transfer payments (Q) Taxes (T) © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Mechanisms: in G aggregate expenditure brings a multiple in income in transfer payment disposable income in consumption a multiple in income in (direct) tax disposable income in consumption a multiple in income Opposite cases also apply. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Corresponding multipliers: Instrument Multiplier Government expenditure 1 1 c i ct cq m Transfer payment c 1 c i ct cq m Tax -c 1 c i ct cq m © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 What is government budget? Budget is a financial statement proposing the estimated revenue and expenditure of the public sector in a fiscal year. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Type of budget: Balanced budget (平衡預算) Estimated revenue Deficit budget (赤字預算) Estimated revenue Surplus budget (盈餘預算) Estimated revenue © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 = Estimated expenditure < Estimated expenditure > Estimated expenditure Balanced budget A balanced budget is expansionary. Its effect on equilibrium income : = ΔG • G-multiplier + ΔT • T-multiplier = ΔBudget • (G-multiplier + T-multiplier) 1 c Balanced budget multiplier = 1 c i ct cq m © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 If income is not subjected to taxation, only a part of it is consumed while the other part is saved. Under a balanced budget, the whole amount of income taxed is spent on government consumption. a net increase in aggregate expenditure (= the amount of income saved before taxation) brings a multiple increase in national income. Note: An annually balanced budget is destabilizing (pro-cyclical) while a cyclically balanced budget is stabilizing (counter–cyclical). © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Deficit budget and surplus budget A deficit budget is more expansionary than a balanced budget. The effect of a surplus budget can be: expansionary neutral or contractionary Yet, when it is applied, it is usually aimed at bringing in a contractionary effect. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 What is public debt? Public debt is the borrowing of the government. Burden of public debt Microscopically or individually, it is the future taxpayers who bear the burden of public debt. Macroscopically or in the view of a generation, it is the present generation who bears the burden. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Yet, the future generation still bears some burden because: Taxation brings adverse effects -- indirect taxes bring deadweight losses while direct taxes create disincentives to work & investment. Issuance of gov’t bonds raises the interest rate which crowds out private investment Repayment of an external debt involves a net export of goods and services in the future. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Situations -- that may minimize the burden on the future generation: 1. The economy is under a serious depression. 2. The debt is for financing public investment. 3. The debt is an internal debt. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Advanced Material 5.1 Net investment is sustained by a favourable and continuous change in determinants If the determinants (including interest rate, national income, etc.) remain constant, the optimal size of capital stock will not be changed. Hence net investment is sustained only if the determinants have favourable changes continuously. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Advanced Material 5.2 Short-term and long-term effects of investment Net investment raises the aggregate demand in the short term the amount of capital stock, productivity and the aggregate supply (the potential GNP) in the long term © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Correcting Misconceptions: 1. C = cY + C*; APC = C/Y; MPC = ΔC/ΔY 2. An increase in C is represented by an upward shift of the C-function. 3. When income is redistributed from consumers of low APC to consumers of high APC, aggregate consumption increases. 4. An increase in C implies a decrease in S. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Correcting Misconceptions: 5. Net investment function relates interest rate to net investment. 6. Transfer payments and taxes are automatic stabilizers. 7. Automatic stabilizers eliminate cyclical fluctuations. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005 Correcting Misconceptions: 8. All stabilizers create disincentive effects. 9. A balanced budget is neutral to an economy. 10. A surplus budget is contractionary. 11. An annually balanced budget and a cyclically balanced budget bring similar effect to an economy. © Pilot Publishing Company Ltd. 2005