Sunrise?
Sunset?
Catastrophic
explosion?
The public mood…
Bobby Duffy, Managing Director
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
The public…
…were more negative than
expected?
…are now more optimistic than
they should be?
…but are in denial
…and contradictory
We have been very
ungrateful…
We’ve spent the money…
Percentage of national income
60
UK
France
Italy
USA
Italy
Germany
55
50
45
40
35
30
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Source: IFS Bulletin OECD.Stat
We’ve spent the money…
Percentage of national income
60
UK
France
Italy
USA
Italy
Germany
55
50
45
40
35
30
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Source: IFS Bulletin OECD.Stat
A lot was done:
- 22,000 extra police
- 51,000 more doctors and 98,000 more nurses
- Average hospital waiting times down from 18 weeks to
6 weeks
- 4,000 schools built, rebuilt or refurbished
- c3,500 Sure Start Children’s Centres
- 18-19 year olds 20% more likely to go on to higher
education than in the mid-1990s
- etc etc
The results?
Do you agree or disagree… “this government’s policies will
improve the state of Britain’s public services”
% net
agree
20
22
10
0
3
6
-2
-10
-20
-30
Brown as PM
2005 General Election
(Jun 07)
(May 05)
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
2001 General Election
(Jun 01)
-18
-13
-19
-14
-27
-13
-21
-22-20-22
-28
-28 -28
-29
-34
-40
9
n-0
Ju 8
0
pSe 8
r-0
Ma 7
v-0
No 7
0
pSe 7
y-0
Ma 7
r-0
Ma 6
v-0
No 6
0
pSe 6
y-0
Ma 6
r-0
Ma 5
v-0
No 5
0
pSe 5
y-0
Ma 5
b-0
Fe 4
v-0
No 4
0
pSe 4
n-0
Ju 4
r-0
Ma 3
c-0
De 3
0
pSe
3
l-0
Ju 3
n-0
Ju 3
r-0
Ma 2
c-0
De 2
0
pSe 2
y-0
Ma 2
r-0
Ma 1
v-0
No 1
t-0
Oc 1
n-0
Ju
Base: c.1,000 British Adults
Source: Ipsos MORI Public Spending Index
The results?
Q Generally speaking do you think that Britain as a place to
live is getting better or worse or is it staying the same?
% better
July 1998
May 2007
% worse
24
40
14
June 2008
Base: 2,019 British adults, 9 May-5 June 2008
8
60
71
Two thirds agree British society is ‘broken’
To what extent do you agree or disagree that British society is
Don’t know
broken?
Strongly disagree
27%
Strongly agree
3%
11%
Tend to disagree
Agree
35%
16%
7%
Neither
28%
63%
18-34
63%
35-54
61%
55+
64%
ABC1
61%
C2DE
65%
Tend to agree
Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 12-14 September 2008
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Crime provides an example…
% confident /
crime incidents
index
90
£ crime
spending
Crime Spending
Confidence in govt to crack down on crime %
Crime Incidents Index
£35bn
86
80
70
£30bn
£29.9
63%
£25bn
60
58
50
40
£20bn
£20.2
£15bn
30
27%
20
£10bn
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Sources: Ipsos MORI International Social Trends Monitor/Delivery Index (average percentage over year); HM Treasury, HM Treasury (2007)
Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2007 Crown Copyright; Nicholas, S., Kershaw, C. and Walker, A. (2007) Crime in England and Wales
2006/07 Home Office Statistical Bulletin 2nd Edition, Crown Copyright [Index is against number of crimes 1995]
Similar reputation
challenges in local
government…
Rubbish and litter less of a problem…
Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of
the following are… rubbish or litter lying around?
Average
District
Mets & Unitaries
LB
65%
60%
59%
Problem
55%
50%
45%
40%
53%
50%
48%
45%
45%
44%
42%
41%
39%
39%
35%
32%
30%
2003
Year surveyed
2006
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (131 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities)
2008
…but local government getting none of credit?
Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with each of the following services
provided or supported by your local authority?… keeping public land clear of
litter and refuse
Average
District
Mets & Unitaries
LB
80%
69%
67%
65%
Satisfaction
70%
63%
60%
50%
63%
60%
55%
60%
58%
57%
54%
52%
40%
2003
Year surveyed
2006
*2006 question wording: How satisfied or dissatisfied are you that the local authority has kept this land clear of litter and
refuse?
Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities).
2008
But some optimism
following election…
Exit poll accurately predicted seat share in the
House of Commons
305
307*
255
258
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dem
61
Exit poll
57
Result
*NB – Thirsk and Malton is still to declare, but is a
safe Tory seat
Base: 17,607 voters at 130 polling stations across Great Britain. Ipsos MORI/GFK NOP/BBC/SKY/ITV
Some questions were raised at 10pm…
Iain Dale, Political Pundit, May 6th, 10:02 PM
“So the exit poll shows the Tories on 307 seats, 19
short of an overall majority. It seems too incredible
to be true that the LibDems are only predicted to
get 59 seats. I'll run naked down Whitehall if that
turns out to be true”
The public are fairly optimistic about the
new government
Do you think that the new government will or will not…
%Will not
…work as a united team?
…deal with the economic
crisis effectively?
…provide stable
government?
29
% Will
63
33
59
34
55
Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World
Base: 1,023 British adults 18+,
12th-13th
May 2010
Most are hopeful rather than fearful…
On balance, would you describe yourself as feeling more hopeful or
more fearful of what the new government will do?
Don’t know
Neither
Both
4%2%
More hopeful
3%
54%
36%
More fearful
Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World
Base: 1,023 British adults 18+,
12th-13th
May 2010
Seen to be good for the UK…
Do you think that the new government will be a good thing or a bad
thing…
%Bad thing
…for the UK?
29
…for you personally?
34
% Good thing
59
45
Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World
Base: 1,023 British adults 18+,
12th-13th
May 2010
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will
improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
40
+28
Index (get better minus get worse)
+23
20
+10
0
-4
-4
-20
-40
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month; (March 2010: 1,253 adults)
Oct '09
May '09
Dec '08
Jul '08
Feb '08
Sep '07
Apr '07
Nov '06
Jun '06
Jan '06
Aug '05
Mar '05
Oct '04
Jun '04
Jan '04
Aug '03
Mar '03
Oct '02
May '02
Dec '01
Jul '01
Feb '01
Sep '00
Apr '00
Nov '99
-56
Jun '99
Jan '99
Apr '98
Nov '97
Jun '97
Jan '97
-80
Sep '98
-46
-60
Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World
EOI against GDP 12 months later and forecasts
EOI
Ann growth
Avge forecast
EOI (%)
30
Rsq = 0.5
GDP growth
(%)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
19
197
89
19 0
8
19 1
8
19 2
8
19 3
8
19 4
8
19 5
8
19 6
8
19 7
8
19 8
8
19 9
9
19 0
9
19 1
9
19 2
9
19 3
9
19 4
9
19 5
9
19 6
9
19 7
9
19 8
9
20 9
0
20 0
0
20 1
0
20 2
0
20 3
0
20 4
0
20 5
0
20 6
0
20 7
0
20 8
0
20 9
1
20 0
1
20 1
12
-70
Forecasts taken from HMT average of independent forecasts: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/200908forcomp.pdf
Note: GDP figures have been shifted forward by 12 months (ie 2009 GDP figures are shown against 2008 EOI)
Year
So what do people
want?
“Swedish services
for US taxes…”
“We now expect more of government than
we do of God”
52% of the public agree….
Many think government has done too much…
Q Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with the
following statement.
Strongly agree
Tend to agree
In recent years government
and public services have tried
to do too much, and people
should take more responsibility
for their own lives
Tend to disagree
31%
33%
Strongly disagree
13% 7%
BUT…
I am worried that government
and public services will do too
little to help people in the
years ahead
19%
31%
Base: 1,002 adults in Great Britain aged 16+. Split sample between the two statements.
Fieldwork dates: 13-19 May 2010
19%
8%
Source: Ipsos MORI
Many believe we can still have our cake and eat it…
To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following
statements about public services in Britain?
% Agree
Making public services more
efficient can save enough money
to help cut government spending,
without damaging services the
public receive
There is a real need to cut
spending on public services in
order to pay off the very high
national debt we now have
Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7
% Disagree
64
43
26
44
Although if we have to choose, we’d protect NHS and
schools
Which TWO or THREE, if any, of the following main areas of public
spending do you think should be protected from any cuts?
The NHS/health care
Schools
Care for the elderly
The Police
Social services
Defence
Benefit payments
Local authority services
Overseas aid
None of these
Don’t know
82%
58%
46%
35%
15%
13%
8%
6%
5%
*%
1%
Base: All who think some services should be protected (773), 19-21 June 2009
Source: Ipsos MORI Public Spending Index
Huge challenges to get
more for less…
Will empowerment and
local control help?
In favour of more public control…
Please read each pair of statements and decide which comes closest to your
own opinion
1 - agree much more with A
2
3
4
5 - agree much more with B
A. The experts who
provide and manage
public services
know best – they
should find out what
we think and get on
with it
7 10
24
Base: 2,019 British adults, fieldwork dates 9th May – 17th June
32
26
B. The general
public should
be much more
actively
involved in
shaping public
services,
through for
example people
deciding on
priorities
…and local control…
If neighbourhoods take more responsibility for addressing crime and
anti-social behaviour (such as through reporting crime or monitoring
community CCTV), they should be given more control over police
resources
% Strongly disagree
% Don't know/Not stated
% Strongly agree
3
19
15
% Tend to disagree
% Tend to agree
50
14
…but want services to be the same
everywhere!!!
Please read each pair of statements and decide which comes closest to your
1 - agree much more with A
own opinion
2
3
4
5 - agree much more with B
A. Standards of
public services
should be the same
everywhere in
Britain
43
Base: 2,019 British adults, fieldwork dates 9th May – 17th June
20
14
12
9
B. The people
who live in
different parts
of Britain
should be able
to decide for
themselves
what standard
of public
services
should be
provided in
their area
Doesn’t really matter what service you ask
about…
Q Please can you tell me which of these statements comes
closest to your own opinion:
People should be able to decide for
themselves how … is provided in
their area
…should be the same
everywhere in Britain
The health
service
Recycling
81%
70%
Base: 1,002 adults in Great Britain aged 16+. Fieldwork dates: 13-19 May 2010
18%
29%
Source: Ipsos MORI
The “postcode lottery” is a national fixation
88 items
96 items
136 items
“about 660”
Driven by real concerns about fairness
NOT a reason to stop local control
The party manifestos suggested
a difference of emphasis between
Labour and Conservatives on the
role of the state
“So my invitation today is
this: join us, to form a new
kind of government for
Britain”
“The role
of government: to stand by
ordinary people so they can
change their lives for the better.
It is our belief that it is active,
reforming government, not
absent government, that helps
make people powerful.”
“Real change comes
when the people are
inspired and mobilised,
when millions of us are
fired up to play a part in
the nation’s future.”
Impact of previous years of initiatives?
Q
Do you agree or disagree that you can influence decisions affecting your
local area?
Local area
100%
Going to take seismic shift
for people to even notice…
% agree
80%
60%
44
40%
38
39
38
39
2003
2005
2007/08
2008/09
20%
0%
2001
Base: All valid responses from core sample in England (~8,000 surveyed per wave)
Source: Citizenship Survey
Does greater involvement/influence work? New
evidence from global work…
% Satisfied with local/municipal goverment
50%
Shaded R2 = 0.66
Canada
Australia
Belgium
45%
40%
35%
Czech
Republic
Great Britain
Sweden
30%
Italy
The US
India
France
Germany
Turkey
Poland
Hungary
25%
All R2 = 0.001
The
Netherlands
Argentina
Spain
20%
Mexico
Russia
Brazil
15%
Japan
10%
South Korea
5%
0%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
% Influence decisions
Base: c.1,000 online residents in each country
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
80%
There is no ladder of involvement…
Q
Levels of involvement/interest in involvement in local services
Already involved (4%)
Want active involvement (5%)
BUT still 1.5m people
And 7.2m people
24%
Want more of a say
47%
16%
Just want information
Don’t care
Base: 1,896 GB adults, 18+. Sept 2008. Source: Ipsos MORI
Communications still vitally important - no councils
that communicate well are poorly rated overall
Wandsworth
Broadland
75%
R2 = 52%
Kensington & Chelsea
Westminster
City of London
R
Satisfaction
65%
Hammersmith &
Fulham
Gedling
55%
North Norfolk
45%
Rother
35%
25%
25%
Rochdale
35%
45%
Informed
Base: All valid responses, 131 local authorities, Place Survey 2008
55%
65%
Source: Ipsos MORI
Advocacy: our analysis shows that being seen to
run a tight ship matters
Satisfied with the way Council Z
runs things
29%
The Council has a good
reputation with residents
16%
The Council is efficient and well
run
13%
Council Z provides value for
money
9%
Most positive drivers of
advocacy amongst the public
Speak highly of Council Z
The Council is making the local
area a better place to live
9%
The Council listens to the
concerns of local residents
8%
Think Council’s magazine is
useful
8%
Satisfied with the local area as a
place to live
7%
Base:
All valid responses (1,240). Eight strongest drivers shown; model explains 54% of the variation in responses.
Never been a relationship with council tax on its
own, BUT…
80%
Wandsworth
City of London
Kensington & Chelsea
Satisfaction with council
70%
Westminster
Knowsley
Gateshead
60%
50%
40%
R2 = 0.2061
30%
20%
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
Average council tax as proportion of mean household income (%)
Base: All local authorities, Place Survey 2008
8.00
Source: Ipsos MORI
New technology and openness –
huge implications for
communications and
accountability
Huge range of measures…
Publishing
spending…
People will be interested in spending info…
Q Which, if any, of the following would you be prepared to do online?
Q And which have you actually done online?
% Prepared to do
% Have done
81
Find details of local doctors and dentists
40
76
Finding out what public services are
spending money on
14
Register to vote
72
16
70
Pay your local council tax bill or a parking
fine
24
67
Make a complaint
22
Report a crime
51
2
Base: 1,002 adults in Great Britain aged 16+. Fieldwork dates: 13-19 May 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI
Our projections of the
future are often wrong
Contacting the Council in the Future – 2002 projection
%
Projected
Observed
Telephone
80
Internet/E-mail
60
40
20
Face-to-face
Written
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source MORI Benchmarking Network
2010
2015
2020
What actually
happened
What actually happened….
Q
How was your last contact with the council made?
Phone
80
Face-to-face
Email
Written
70
60
50
%40
30
20
10
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Base: All residents who have contacted their council, Ipsos MORI face-to-face benchmarking data
2007
2008/09
Source: Ipsos MORI
Staff are vital to all
of this – what is their
mood?
They’re not advocates for public services…
Which of these phrases best describes the way you would speak
about the NHS as a whole?
% Be critical
Doctors
GPs
% Speak highly
70%
Practice nurses
Hospital nurses
-67
3%
71%
-64
7%
47%
15%
42%
-32
10%
NHS senior clinical managers 40%
±% Net
-32
23%
-17
44%
Same for councils – even when specific, only 31% speak highly
49%
Very strong relationship between staff advocacy and performance
What do the best get right?
% very satisfied with job factors/strongly agree
Excellent
Good
Weak
Fair
Poor
61%
59%
Opportunity
to show
initiative
44%
42%
39%
62%
Input into job
plans
47%
42%
45%
32%
Base: 1500 staff interviewed by phone
Understanding the purpose of the
organisation
% very satisfied with job factors/strongly agree
Excellent
Good
Weak
Fair
Poor
64%
Understand
organisation’s
overall
objectives
41%
37%
38%
26%
Base: 1500 staff interviewed by phone
Which comes from the top…
% Disagree
Senior management have a clear vision
of where the organisation is going
30%
31%
28%
18%
5%
Excellent
Good
Fair
Base: All respondents (1,500). Fieldwork: 12th – 27th May 2005
Weak
Poor
Conclusions
Immense challenges…
 Reality is there have been huge improvements in
public services – but not reflected in opinions
 Many still don’t realise the significance of the cuts to
come
 Big Society could be genuinely new approach/mobilise
untapped potential – will never be for everyone and will
always need communications alongside
 Communication emphasis changing – focus on vfm,
new channels and letting go, to frontline staff and
citizens
 But a lot remains consistent – have a clear narrative,
knowing what you want to be famous for
Thanks for listening
bobby.duffy@ipsos.com
www.ipsos-mori.com